Extreme TMA System | Page 299 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Hennis Extreme TMA System 105 replies

TMA Reality Tour 116 replies

Happs with TMA Trading Journal 25 replies

MTF TMA 287 replies

SnakeForce - simple TMA with alert? 3 replies

Attachments: Extreme TMA System
Exit Attachments

Extreme TMA System

  • #5,961
  • Mar 19, 2012 2:46pm Mar 19, 2012 2:46pm
Quoting Favorite
Al, I'm sure you're right about H1/H4 and when I look at H1's TMA and H4's TMA I see exactly what you see. But when I look at D1's TMA, W1's TMA and even M1's TMA I can see that right now price goes from the lower band to the upper band.

So, the question is: are we sure that the price on H4's TMA would go down first (before going up again) if on D1's TMA it is supposed to go up? Where do we stop (H4 or D1)? Is it enough to just look at H1 and H4?

Al, MTF TMA is VERY new to me, so maybe it is a stupid question.
No. That is a very good question because I have been looking at D1 and W1 on all the pairs and I have asked myself the same question. What we have to realize is that price moves from side to side of the TMA bands in ALL TFs, so while it is true that it may continue to go up in D1, the move in H1 and H4 must happen also. And before price continues up in D1, the H4 channel must turn upward first. And even within an upward H4 channel, price will continue to move from side to side. That is the way price moves, in cyclical fashion. I guess price has not discovered that the shortest distance between two points is a straight line...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,962
  • Mar 19, 2012 2:58pm Mar 19, 2012 2:58pm
Quoting Alorente
No. That is a very good question because I have been looking at D1 and W1 on all the pairs and I have asked myself the same question. What we have to realize is that price moves from side to side of the TMA bands in ALL TFs, so while it is true that it may continue to go up in D1, the move in H1 and H4 must happen also. And before price continues up in D1, the H4 channel must turn upward first. And even within an upward H4 channel, price will continue to move from side to side. That is the way price moves, in cyclical fashion. I guess price has...
Thank you Al!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #5,963
  • Mar 19, 2012 3:13pm Mar 19, 2012 3:13pm
Hello fellow traders,

Did my first trade today - long EURJPY - very conservative - exited at middle line for +20 pips

Thank you Al for a promising strategy.
  • #5,964
  • Edited Mar 20, 2012 8:36am Mar 19, 2012 3:13pm | Edited Mar 20, 2012 8:36am
Quoting Favorite
Al, I'm sure you're right about H1/H4 and when I look at GBPUSD H1's TMA and H4's TMA I see exactly what you see. But when I look at GBPUSD D1's TMA, W1's TMA and even MN's TMA I can see that right now price goes from the lower band to the upper band.

So, the question is: are we sure that the price on H4's TMA would go down first (before going up again) if on D1's TMA it is supposed to go up? Where do we stop (H4 or D1)? Is it enough to just look at H1 and H4?

Al, MTF TMA is VERY new to me, so maybe it is a stupid question.
Here is the weekly price action for AudUsd, which is probably the pair I am most bearish on right now. Point A is the drop from 2008. Since then, as you can see, the pair has done nothing but climb. Look at point B. There was a small retracement which was followed by an upswing and breakout to new highs. Now look at C. Another retracement from record highs but observe the difference. There is no breakout to new highs. The channel is clearly turning sideways after not even reaching the previous high. I believe this is a clear double top and the channel will now start moving downwards for an extended drop. The Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the 3 year move up is to 0.9188, but after such a large continuous rise (From 0.60 to 1.11) it is typical to get a Golden Retracement which is the Fib 61.8% retracement. That would put AudUsd at roughly 0.80. A whopping 2900 pip move happening probably within the next 18 months.

I have correlated this upcoming move with the other pairs. It is in synch with my expected EurUsd drop to parity and the UsdJpy move to 120 that I expect also over the next 18 months.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd B.jpg Size: 73 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,965
  • Mar 19, 2012 3:23pm Mar 19, 2012 3:23pm
Quoting Alorente
Here is the weekly price action for AudUsd, which is probably the pair I am most bearish on right now. Point A is the drop from 2008. Since then, as you can see, the pair has done nothing but climb. Look at point B. There was a small retracement which was followed by an upswing and breakout to new highs. Now look at C. Another retracement from record highs but observe the difference. There is no breakout to new highs. The channel is clearly turning sideways after not even reaching the previous high. I believe this is a clear double top and the channel...
Regarding what I just said about AudUsd, this is the core of my strategy for the next 18 months. Sell EurUsd and AudUsd on swings and Buy UsdJpy in the same fashion. This is the main reason why I will not Buy the Euro or Sell Usd as I have said repeatedly on this thread except for isolated instances where it is extremely overbought like a few days ago with UsdJpy and UsdChf.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,966
  • Edited Mar 20, 2012 8:37am Mar 19, 2012 3:33pm | Edited Mar 20, 2012 8:37am
Quoting Alorente
Here is the weekly price action for AudUsd, which is probably the pair I am most bearish on right now. Point A is the drop from 2008. Since then, as you can see, the pair has done nothing but climb. Look at point B. There was a small retracement which was followed by an upswing and breakout to new highs. Now look at C. Another retracement from record highs but observe the difference. There is no breakout to new highs. The channel is clearly turning sideways after not even reaching the previous high. I believe this is a clear double top and the channel...
Another very important point which I failed to mention. Look at the chart again and observe the clear divergences present in the TMA Slope indicator. You see that the tops of the highs are a straight line lower as indicated by the white line, even as prices kept rising.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,967
  • Mar 19, 2012 3:45pm Mar 19, 2012 3:45pm
That would put AudUsd at roughly 0.80. A whopping 2900 pip move happening probably within the next 18 months.

I have correlated this upcoming move with the other pairs. It is in synch with my expected EurUsd drop to parity and the UsdJpy move to 120 that I expect also over the next 18 months.[/quote]

While obviously anything is possible, what you are anticipating in the au and eu markets is simply the breakup of the euro and the slamming of equity markets.

The Aussie is unlikely to be dumped until the euro breaks up and that appears to be at least beyond six months or so. Even if the euro is sold off over the next 12 months without a fracture of the currency I wouldn't expect the usual strong correlation between the Aussie and euro to hold given some fundamental peculiarities specific to the Aussie.

What you say may come to pass but I don't see anything less than a smashing of equities due to the fracturing of the euro facilitating the event.
Enter Signature
  • #5,968
  • Mar 19, 2012 4:02pm Mar 19, 2012 4:02pm
Hi Al,

Just installed the latest Packet.zip. Please have a look at my chart attached on the above right corner the encircled word "London", indicating London session. This is incorrect, because when I was taking the picture the local London time was 18:30 (6:30 PM), i.e. London has already closed. It should have shown New York instead. Can you please tell me what parameter is to be changed, so that the session displayed is correct?

Your help is greatly appreciated...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: etma-1.jpg Size: 134 KB
To excel by continuous learning
  • #5,969
  • Edited 4:22pm Mar 19, 2012 4:05pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting Sarythsaya
That would put AudUsd at roughly 0.80. A whopping 2900 pip move happening probably within the next 18 months.

I have correlated this upcoming move with the other pairs. It is in synch with my expected EurUsd drop to parity and the UsdJpy move to 120 that I expect also over the next 18 months.

While obviously anything is possible, what you are anticipating in the au and eu markets is simply the breakup of the euro and the slamming of equity markets.

The Aussie is unlikely to be dumped until the euro breaks up and that appears to be at least beyond six months or so. Even if the euro is sold off over the next 12 months without a fracture of the currency I wouldn't expect the usual strong correlation between the Aussie and euro to hold given some fundamental peculiarities specific to the Aussie.

What you say may come to pass but I don't see anything less than a smashing of equities due to the fracturing of the euro facilitating the event.[/quote]



Exactly. I have thought long and hard about what would be the trigger that would cause this smashing of equities and I believe it will start to develop when inflation rears its ugly head and starts surprising to the upside. The world is vulnerable to a bout of inflation like it has never been before. Central bank balance sheets are tremendously overextended as a consequence of all the quantitative easing (money printing). The world is heavily in debt which is unpayable at historical norm interest rates of 5% to 6%. When inflation starts hitting, everyone and his brother will start dumping bonds like there is no tomorrow. Interest rates will soar and that will bring stock markets down inevitably. There is not one country in the Western world that can meet the interest payments on their enormous debt at substantially higher rates, except of course, by printing more money, which, of course, would fan inflation even more. It is a catch 22 situation of which, sooner or later, there is no escape. They can delay it for now, but not for long...

Also, technically speaking, I was always bothered by the fact that the artificially inflated S&P500 never solidly tested the bottom of March, 2009, as you can see by the weekly chart below. It seems like the TMA has now turned sideways, maybe at the top of this parabolic move, while at the same time, the 200SMA (Blue line) continues to point straight down with a vengeance. It is entirely possible that the next 2 years may bring the drop that the 200 MA is indicating. I am not predicting a cataclysm, but this is what the charts are telling me is likely to happen and no matter how hard I try, I cannot ignore the warning signs..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: s&p500.jpg Size: 132 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,970
  • Mar 19, 2012 4:11pm Mar 19, 2012 4:11pm
Quoting PeepCzar
Hi Al,

Just installed the latest Packet.zip. Please have a look at my chart attached on the above right corner the encircled word "London", indicating London session. This is incorrect, because when I was taking the picture the local London time was 18:30 (6:30 PM), i.e. London has already closed. It should have shown New York instead. Can you please tell me what parameter is to be changed, so that the session displayed is correct?

Your help is greatly appreciated...
I really don´t know. I´ve tried fixing that many times, to no avail. If you discover how, please tell me.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,971
  • Mar 19, 2012 4:17pm Mar 19, 2012 4:17pm
Quoting Alorente
I really don´t know. I´ve tried fixing that many times, to no avail. If you discover how, please tell me.
Thanks for your instant reply. If it doesn't affect the shape of the charts, it is not too bad then. Maybe one of the indi programmers can help us...
To excel by continuous learning
  • #5,972
  • Mar 19, 2012 4:22pm Mar 19, 2012 4:22pm
Quoting Alorente
I really don´t know. I´ve tried fixing that many times, to no avail. If you discover how, please tell me.

there is a info window about 58 windows down in the indicator inputs I hopefully included a screen shot of it as well
Attached Image
  • #5,973
  • Mar 19, 2012 4:26pm Mar 19, 2012 4:26pm
Quoting Surfnomad
there is a info window about 58 windows down in the indicator inputs I hopefully included a screen shot of it as well
As I said, I´ve tried to change all that and have not been successful at fixing it...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,974
  • Mar 19, 2012 4:29pm Mar 19, 2012 4:29pm
Quoting Alorente
As I said, I´ve tried to change all that and have not been successful at fixing it...

Wow that's unusual it fixed mine to display correctly... I'm lucky I guess I was just attempting to be helpful
  • #5,975
  • Mar 19, 2012 4:44pm Mar 19, 2012 4:44pm
Also, technically speaking, I was always bothered by the fact that the artificially inflated S&P500 never solidly tested the bottom of March, 2009, as you can see by the weekly chart below. It seems like the TMA has now turned sideways, maybe at the top of this parabolic move, while at the same time, the 200SMA (Blue line) continues to point straight down with a vengeance. It is entirely possible that the next 2 years may bring the drop that the 200 MA is indicating. I am not predicting a cataclysm, but this is what the charts are telling me is likely to happen and no matter how hard I try, I cannot ignore the warning signs..
[/quote]

The Aussie debt is less than 200 billion so we may be one of the only western countries able to pay our debt without printing money.

I hadn't given due consideration to inflation - as it seems questionable under the current flat growth prospects. The big harbinger of inflation may be Israel vs Iran due to oil fluctuations I suppose. Let us all hope not.
Enter Signature
  • #5,976
  • Mar 19, 2012 4:47pm Mar 19, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting Sarythsaya
Exactly. I have thought long and hard about what would be the trigger that would cause this smashing of equities and I believe it will start to develop when inflation rears its ugly head and starts surprising to the upside. The world is vulnerable to a bout of inflation like it has never been before. Central bank balance sheets are tremendously overextended as a consequence of all the quantitative easing (money printing). The world is heavily in debt which is unpayable at historical norm interest rates of 5% to 6%. When inflation starts hitting,...
The Aussie debt is less than 200 billion so we may be one of the only western countries able to pay our debt without printing money.

I hadn't given due consideration to inflation - as it seems questionable under the current flat growth prospects. The big harbinger of inflation may be Israel vs Iran due to oil fluctuations I suppose. Let us all hope not.[/quote]



You may be right. Oil may be the key. I lived through the early 70´s when inflation in the US reached 10% because of the oil embargo, and the Fed (Paul Volcker) raised rates to 16%. It was a tough 2 years then, but it worked. Of course, in those days, the US had no debt to speak off and that was possible to do. Today, it would be a pipe dream with the US trillions in debt to think of raising rates anywhere close to that level.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,977
  • Mar 19, 2012 7:07pm Mar 19, 2012 7:07pm
Quoting Skip2k
Sorry, Carl. It's my fault. Everything works just fine
What did you do so dashboard is working?Please help me.
  • #5,978
  • Mar 19, 2012 7:51pm Mar 19, 2012 7:51pm
Hola Alfredo,

The indicator that occupies the righthand side of the screen also hides whether or not your Cavemanager or 5x5 EA's are active. At least on my screen. FYI.

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #5,979
  • Mar 19, 2012 8:19pm Mar 19, 2012 8:19pm
Here is a simplified Trix indicator. Just the lines with color changes. I think that is all that is necessary in this system. So it should be of some use. And save you the gui management headache of the current indicator.

It also attempts to identify regular divergences but this is code is not complete. I would like to identify them the same as Al does on his chart examples, but this could be tricky to do, so I will let it be for a bit.

If you enable the divergences but just be aware this is not meant to be the same as the arrows in the original Trix indicator. Only regular divergences are shown and probably not even as many of those as the original trix does.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Trix4Kids.mq4   12 KB | 565 downloads
  • #5,980
  • Mar 19, 2012 8:31pm Mar 19, 2012 8:31pm
long USDCAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: us.jpg Size: 179 KB
13 traders viewing now, 1 is registered:
gulfman