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What do you think, Usd/Cad up?

  • #21
  • Apr 26, 2006 12:52pm Apr 26, 2006 12:52pm
Quoting james16
my good friend narafa may well be right. having the futures put options that dont expire until december is a comforting thought and i still think by then its going to look much different.

here is an outlook i agree with.

The Canuck Buck is currently trading just beneath it?s 20 year high of 8906 set back in 1991. Although the reason for this irrational exuberance is valid, Canada is rich in natural resources, we doubt that that information is new and the market is overbought with the currency being overvalued all things being considered.
Jim my friend, I can understand your play very well...Your position is a limited risk position with an unlimited profit potential...You are expecting a turnaround but you don't know when, that's why you are playing it safe...In brief, you are not standing in the way of the train....You might be right and I might be wrong...The issue here is about people who go long the currency pair where the loss potential is unlimited...We all know that overbought can become more and more overbought, wiping many traders out, but you can't get wiped if you are buying an option


Thanks,

Nader
  • #22
  • Apr 26, 2006 12:57pm Apr 26, 2006 12:57pm
Quoting narafa
Jim my friend, I can understand your play very well...Your position is a limited risk position with an unlimited profit potential...You are expecting a turnaround but you don't know when, that's why you are playing it safe...In brief, you are not standing in the way of the train....You might be right and I might be wrong...The issue here is about people who go long the currency pair where the loss potential is unlimited...We all know that overbought can become more and more overbought, wiping many traders out, but you can't get wiped if you are buying an option


Thanks,

Nader
could not agree with you more. hey nader got a question for you in our thread about the recent bombings in your country. look for it soon.

jim
  • #23
  • Apr 26, 2006 3:14pm Apr 26, 2006 3:14pm
If we could have a look at The graph that OandA Puts out .It is absolutely astonishing how many people are currently long the Canadian dollar. If there is a turn in the currency that will be a tremendous amount of resistance as these people get out so that they can breakeven.


I read all the time how people hang on to losing positions but to see it in a graph that is scary.
Attached Image
A truly wise man, always has more questions than answers.
  • #24
  • Apr 26, 2006 5:14pm Apr 26, 2006 5:14pm
Quoting Claude
If we could have a look at The graph that OandA Puts out .It is absolutely astonishing how many people are currently long the Canadian dollar. If there is a turn in the currency that will be a tremendous amount of resistance as these people get out so that they can breakeven.


I read all the time how people hang on to losing positions but to see it in a graph that is scary.
Just a little correction, the posted image shows that people are long the USD/CAD, thus they are long the USD and short the CAD, and as the pair goes down, those huge amounts turn more red creating massive resistance as you mentioned on rallies...Remember, the public are always wrong at the turning points, and since all this amount of people are still long the USD/CAD, I don't think we are seeing the turning point soon....

You might want to check the EUR/GBP image as well and you will be astonished to see that almost everyone is short this great pair and the pair just keeps going up and up, very nice indeed


Thanks,

Nader
  • #25
  • Apr 26, 2006 6:01pm Apr 26, 2006 6:01pm
Quoting Claude

I read all the time how people hang on to losing positions but to see it in a graph that is scary.

In my Opinion, the chart for EUR / GBP is even worse.

(Sorry, don't have a clue how to upload it).
  • #26
  • Apr 26, 2006 7:39pm Apr 26, 2006 7:39pm
Quoting Claude
If we could have a look at The graph that OandA Puts out .It is absolutely astonishing how many people are currently long the Canadian dollar. If there is a turn in the currency that will be a tremendous amount of resistance as these people get out so that they can breakeven.


I read all the time how people hang on to losing positions but to see it in a graph that is scary.
That is a really great chart, Claude. It really makes you wonder who's sitting at 600+ pips in the hole and still holding on! Can't imagine it's any of the big players, but the chart shows it's a substantial amount of money, so who are these people with cojones the size of Texas?

btw, would you mind pulling up a similar chart for the USDJPY? After the recent decline, it'd be interesting to see how many people are left holding the bag on the yen.
  • #27
  • Edited 1:04am Apr 27, 2006 12:54am | Edited 1:04am
no reason to come up , it gain its strong from year to year ,

i will have a short order right now @1.1274, target : 1.1200 ,dont use any stop lost
  • #28
  • Apr 27, 2006 1:42am Apr 27, 2006 1:42am
Quoting narafa
Just a little correction, the posted image shows that people are long the USD/CAD, thus they are long the USD and short the CAD, and as the pair goes down, those huge amounts turn more red creating massive resistance as you mentioned on rallies...Remember, the public are always wrong at the turning points, and since all this amount of people are still long the USD/CAD, I don't think we are seeing the turning point soon....

You might want to check the EUR/GBP image as well and you will be astonished to see that almost everyone is short this great pair and the pair just keeps going up and up, very nice indeed


Thanks,

Nader
Nader, I couldn't agree more on that... it's a little scary...

I'm currently short. Mr. Trend says, "The trend is your friend..."

Pablo: Remember, you can't predict. You don't need to. Only react.
Mr. Trend
  • #29
  • Apr 27, 2006 1:45am Apr 27, 2006 1:45am
Quoting narafa
Just a little correction, the posted image shows that people are long the USD/CAD, thus they are long the USD and short the CAD, and as the pair goes down, those huge amounts turn more red creating massive resistance as you mentioned on rallies...Remember, the public are always wrong at the turning points, and since all this amount of people are still long the USD/CAD, I don't think we are seeing the turning point soon....

You might want to check the EUR/GBP image as well and you will be astonished to see that almost everyone is short this great pair and the pair just keeps going up and up, very nice indeed


Thanks,

Nader
when i see a big ole juicy monthly/weekly pin bar, which is coming sooner than later i will lick my chops and bring it to this threads attention. LOL.
  • #30
  • Apr 27, 2006 1:59am Apr 27, 2006 1:59am
chart
Attached Image
  • #31
  • Apr 27, 2006 2:01am Apr 27, 2006 2:01am
Quoting james16
chart
Beautiful.
Mr. Trend
  • #32
  • Apr 27, 2006 2:06am Apr 27, 2006 2:06am
Quoting Mr Trend
Beautiful.
if it should make it to the 38 by then i will fly in narafa and take him skiing.

do arabs ski in thier turbins? LOL. now i gauruntee that would make my local evening news.
  • #33
  • Apr 27, 2006 2:07am Apr 27, 2006 2:07am
Quoting james16
do arabs ski in thier turbins? LOL. now i gauruntee that would make my local evening news.
Actually.... no...

Mr. Trend
  • #34
  • Apr 27, 2006 2:11am Apr 27, 2006 2:11am
Quoting Mr Trend
Actually.... no...

11 posts the first couple of hours. your on fire mr. T. are you an arab friend and i must ask do you have one of those million dollar 800 square foot homes i always hear about in your area?
  • #35
  • Apr 27, 2006 2:37am Apr 27, 2006 2:37am
Quoting james16
11 posts the first couple of hours. your on fire mr. T. are you an arab friend and i must ask do you have one of those million dollar 800 square foot homes i always hear about in your area?
Heh heh... hey, sue me! I'm watching the London's volatility as it eats up my hard earned dollars.

Last I checked, I was still Caucasian.

Not quite million dollar... I'm in a 1800 sq. ft., and I'd like to have a little bigger... maybe 2500. That'd be perfect. Is that too much to ask!? :
Mr. Trend
  • #36
  • Apr 27, 2006 4:35am Apr 27, 2006 4:35am
Hi every body

i continue to reinforce a little bit more

buy usd/cad at 1.1270 leverage 3

global position usd/cad : Average buy 1.1398 leverage 15

Indeed i want the move continue so as to buy more again. The more i would have to buy the more my trade will be performant. This long move will know a rebond, soon or later. I am not in a rush. And i have a lot of leverage reserve (185).
  • #37
  • May 1, 2006 5:59pm May 1, 2006 5:59pm
Hi traders,

According to a signal provider that I receive we can sell CAD/USD at 1.1160 with stop loss of 25 pips (stop at 1.1185 plus spread). Target for trade is 1.1050.

Anticipated profit is therefore 90 pips, with a risk of about 30 pips. Risk:reward ration is 1:3
Reliability rating : good

Watch and see what happen! This signal provider is good, but I suggest that you check it out yourself before entering these trades. I will pass on more trade setups as they become available.
  • #38
  • May 1, 2006 6:21pm May 1, 2006 6:21pm
Quoting james16
chart
This chart is a great one Jim...I noticed that the 20 years high was just at the time where Gold peaked in the 80s...Now, considering inflation, Gold is at low prices relative to the $850 of the 80s, and thus it is suggested that the CAD is still undervalued relative to the USD, which means that neither the gold bull move is over, nor the CAD bull move is over too....


Thanks,

Nader
  • #39
  • May 1, 2006 6:52pm May 1, 2006 6:52pm
Quoting narafa
This chart is a great one Jim...I noticed that the 20 years high was just at the time where Gold peaked in the 80s...Now, considering inflation, Gold is at low prices relative to the $850 of the 80s, and thus it is suggested that the CAD is still undervalued relative to the USD, which means that neither the gold bull move is over, nor the CAD bull move is over too....


Thanks,

Nader

probably right but all i want is a nice correction before the next move. by november would be fine.
  • #40
  • May 1, 2006 9:21pm May 1, 2006 9:21pm
Quoting james16
but all i want is a nice correction before the next move.
Amen.
Mr. Trend
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