NZD/USD

4) >>> Nzd/Usd <<< Weekly view - 4 Hours Chart (21-25th of February):

Bearish Probability: - Kiwi has been trending inside an Uptrend Channel on the 4Hours Chart. The main uptrend Line has been broken downside. If the 0.836-0.830 area(key area confluence between 100SMA, Weekly Main Pivot, weekly S1 Pivot, 30 and 500SMA cross) will be broken downside, price could reach 0.818(Key-Level confluence between 200SMa and Weekly S2 Pivot, the level that holds the uptrend on the 4Hours chart).This is a strong support area for a bullish retracement back to Weekly s2 Pivot.

Bullish Probability - above the 0.836-0.830 Area will rise back above the Main Uptrend Line and reach first 0.848(Weekly R1 Pivot) and then 0.854 Area (Strong Key-Level, confluence between Weekly R2 Pivot and Monthly R3 Pivot).

Daily forecast short term
sell

Just because you feel a currency is overvalued does not mean
A. It is.
B. It will stop rising.

There's no clear reversal in price, as with Aussie yet.

Very nice chart, very nice assessment, I have similar thoughts, for me she has breached the ascending channel Daily, completed retest Friday, closing with a very nice candle, Aussie is almost identical, her twin sister,
Monday will be interesting, gap up if Fridays high holds I will enter, if she goes below Mondays open, I will be adding and begin selling rallies, this for both AU and Kiwi
If gap down I will defend any retest of Mondays open
I aleady have fills -
Kiwi 8393
Aussie 0744
Waiting monthly close before reassessing trade plan

NZD/USD to continue rising.

Chart patterns don't mean jack in Forex.

Only market sentiment and money flow determine direction.

I'm going to trade this pair this week and maybe a few weeks ahead. You can see a long term uptrend from December. You can tell we've hit a consolidation period here just look at the 1 hour chart it's chop-suey. What that tells me is that market is not convinced of the value here and maybe looking for a correction lower.

My feeling is especially if we get a close today below Friday's close that will confirm the top and we can see move lower to the 38.2 on the daily were currently the 100 SMA resides.

The question here is do you have the patience to wait out this consolidation period?

Nzd/Usd-1Hour chart-28.02-Update

-Bearish Probability,if 0.838(confluence between Daily Pivot from Tuesday and 30 and 50SMA)will be broken and confirmed,price could reach 0.835(the most important Key Area at the moment as it is the confluence between 100 and 200SMA,Weekly Main Pivot and Daily S1 Pivot from Tuesday).

This is the Key Level that holds the Uptrend.Next support could be 0.827-0.828(confluence between Weekly S1 Pivot and Daily S2 Pivot from Tuesday).

-Bullish Probability,after the price has been moving sideways in the last days,it could find support at 0.838(Daily Pivot from Tuesday,confluence with 30 and 50SMA)and then break 0.843(Key confluence between Weekly r1 Pivot and Daily R1 Pivot from Tuesday)to reach 0.847(Daily R2 Pivot from Tuesday)and even 0.850(Weekly R2 Pivot confluence with uptrend line now dynamic resistence).

To YOur Success,
Doctortyby

Kiwi has eeked through 0840

let's see if Aud and Kiwi can keep up the juice through London to take out these range tops.

AND proceed NORTHBOUND on the train. WOO HOOT all aboard.

Any idea why this pair is going so crazy these days... Just now it touched 0.8470

Never thought of rising it upto this level....

7) Nzd/USD - Monthly view - March - Daily Chart,

To your success,

Doctortyby - Tiberiu

my intraday kiwi target just got hit. Nice move down kiwi.

>> 7) Nzd/USD - Weekly View - 06-09th of March - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

Bearish Probability - If 0.816 Level (Weekly S2 Pivot) will hold as resistence price will fall further to 0.808 (Monthly S2 Pivot) and even 0.804 (Weekly S3 Pivot). From this level we could see s spike all the Way to 0.821 (Key confluence between Weekly S1 Pivot and Monthly S1 Pivot).

Bullish Probability - If price will break 0.822 (Key Level confluence between Monthly S1 Pivot and Weekly S1 Pivot), move upside further to 0.83 (200 SMA), and reach finally 0.834 - 0.835 (Key Area, Important confluence between Monthly Pivot, Weekly Pivot and 100 and 50 SMA). From this level we could see a Bearish retracement.

To Your Success,
Doctortyby

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/MPSmar12.pdf
"
1 Policy assessment
The Reserve Bank today left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.5 percent.
Inflation has settled near the middle of the Bank’s target range, and inflation expectations have fallen.
The domestic economy is showing signs of recovery. Household spending appears to have picked up over the
past few months and a recovery in building activity appears to be underway. That recovery will strengthen as repairs
and reconstruction in Canterbury pick up later in the year. High export commodity prices are also helping to support a
continuing recovery in domestic activity.
Policy actions from a number of central banks have boosted global confidence. While encouraging, financial market
sentiment remains fragile and risks to the global outlook remain. Furthermore, the easing in global monetary policy and
resultant recovery in risk appetite has contributed to a marked appreciation in the New Zealand dollar.
While helping contain inflation, the high value of the New Zealand dollar is detrimental to the tradable sector,
undermines GDP growth and inhibits rebalancing in the New Zealand economy. Sustained strength in the New Zealand
dollar would reduce the need for future increases in the OCR.
Given the medium-term outlook for inflation, it remains prudent to hold the OCR at 2.5 percent."

The pair is rebounding like crazy...

Does any one has a feeling of a new drop from this point?

I also think it will go downside looking at the 4H trendline, but taking look at the previous tops it will take some time. In my opinion tommorow or at least at the beginning of the next week.

Somebody short here today?

No. Looking to see reaction to Friday's (& Thu. night) Move up Come NZ/Aussie/Asia open. Technically the Zealanders start trading first I believe.
Regardless, wont know the true reaction until Monday/Tues. A few sessions deep. Think the dollar NFP "buzz" has waned. Swissy fell off today see potential new low @ 9039 ( like this pair as a USD strength indicator if not trading it. Well and when as well
http://www.new-zealand-pictures.co.n...-sign_2061.jpg
In the case of Kiwi though almost 200 pips off the low, which is now erased and we land back at the R/S pivot area on H4/Daily of 8230

Sustained close above 8267 and I am looking for retest of 84 ->8450

Heres my outlook for NZDUSD for next week with a bias to the long side. I'll also be quick on my toes if we see strength out of the gate. Good luck trading this week all!

7) Nzd/Usd - Weekly View - 19-23rd of March - 4 hours Chart in analogy with 35 Pips Range Bars Charts:

http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image265.jpg


http://www.dukascopy.com/imageserver...2/image279.jpg

Bearish Probability,if the price breaks and confirms the breakout of 0.822-0.820 Key Area(confluence between 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement, Monthly S1 Pivot, Weekly Main Pivot and 30 and 50 SMAs cross),it could fall further to reach first 0.812(Weekly S1 Pivot, key confluence with the Downtrend Line, which is acting now as Dynamic support), and then 0.808(Monthly S2 Pivot and support)and 0.798-0.796 area (Monthly S3 Pivot and Weekly S2 Pivot confluence)

Bullish Probability,if the price will find support at 0.822-0.820 Area(Key confluence between Monthly S1 Pivot, Weekly Main Pivot, and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and 50 and 30 SMAs cross), it will rise to 0.830-0.831 area (Key confluence between 200SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement), and move further to 0.834 (Key level, confluence between Monthly Main Pivot and Weekly R1 Pivot). The next resistence could be 0.841(Weekly R2 Pivot)

Read my Full analysis for the Major Pairs... (check out the link in my profile)

To your success,
Doctortyby