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The life of a trading system on Forex Factory

  • #81
  • Mar 11, 2012 3:00pm Mar 11, 2012 3:00pm
Quoting billbss
All long threads fit the model of the first post. If a system works and is clearly presented there is nothing left to post about.Why would there be hundreds of posts saying "I understand the rules and it works"? Long winded threads mean the rules are vague, are continually changing or the method does not work and is being constantly adjusted.The best methods on this forum may not have over 8 or 10 posts.
I think you've missed a key concept:

Personal belief systems

Suppose I make a system that is 30% correct and 70% incorrect. I am fine with the system. I believe that winning ony 3 out of 10 trades is good. Because I have certain beliefs about trading in general.

My rules can be clearly defined and the entire system can be summed up in one short post. But what happens?

Reader 1 reads the system but can not handle being wrong more than he is right. So reader 1 begins to look for filters-new indicators or rules to improve the performance of the system.

Reader 2 comes along. Now he is okay with the win/loss percentage but he has a belief in a set of magical numbers. So instead of using my rule of 4 periods, he changes it to the closest magical number which is 6.

This is what happens as a system is exposed to the masses. Each individual filters the system through his or her own belief system. So a system that could be summed up in one post becomes a thread of thousands where very few of the posts emmulate the original posted system.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #82
  • Mar 11, 2012 3:32pm Mar 11, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting HiddenGap
I think you've missed a key concept:

Personal belief systems

Suppose I make a system that is 30% correct and 70% incorrect. I am fine with the system. I believe that winning ony 3 out of 10 trades is good. Because I have certain beliefs about trading in general.

My rules can be clearly defined and the entire system can be summed up in one short post. But what happens?

Reader 1 reads the system but can not handle being wrong more than he is right. So reader 1 begins to look for filters-new indicators or rules to improve the performance...
im inclined to agree with you hiddengap, it also presumes that all systems are complete and perfect, where in reality most are systems people are trying and looking to improve, hence they put it out there to the masses to see if someone else can improve it.
tradewith60
  • #83
  • Edited 4:58pm Mar 11, 2012 3:47pm | Edited 4:58pm
Custos
Quote
People are sheep. Most want their life to be decided by others, no matter if they wanna admit it or not. They do not dare to try to make it on their own. It's always easier to follow somebody. Also a reason why most are working for companies instead of establishing one on their own.

Forums and chat rooms are full of traders looking for short cuts to absolve themselves to two things . . . personal responsibility and the required investments in time and education to trade successfully (3 things?) For most of our lives, we are simply required to memorize and regurgitate the work of others before us. This works well when we have no real skin in the game and are competing with others doing the same.
Trading is total responsibility and accountability – two concepts so foreign to most of our culture, it is no wonder they cannot get out of their own way and must rely on others to provide the blueprint that they can simply latch on to. No brains, no headaches.
If it weren’t so sad, it would be amusing.
No system introduced can ever be understood in succinct 10 or fewer posts because the OP has adapted in to his/her own experience, training and idiosyncrasies that will never apply unilaterally or even partially in most cases.
In addition, 95% of the traders reading it do not have the willingness to invest the time to actually test it; let alone the knowledge required of the markets, trading or their own psychological shortcomings.
Yes – belief in the systems are required as are all of the other “knowns’’ repeated in perpetuity. But it takes work to build and then maintain a belief – work which most are unwilling to perform.
Thus the fuel for threads is the laziness of most participants, the desire (or false perception) to get something for nothing with a lucrative upside potential, and the warm fuzzy from being part of a group. Next comes the frustration and/or exhaustion of the OP from redundancy and the cycling of traders in and out of the thread - as so accurately depicted in the first post here.
It is a terrible model for learning. I could never imagine attempting to achieve the level of expert in any field using a similar, scattered, arbitrary approach that is purported to culminate in financial independence.
I am resolved that this environment contributes to the pool of funds whereby I derive my income, so for that reason alone, I selfishly support its existence. At the same time, it aggravates me.
  • #84
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:10pm Mar 11, 2012 4:10pm
Quoting dcginc
Forums and chat rooms are full of traders looking for short cuts to absolve themselves to two things . . .
One of the best posts I've ever read and coming from someone who knows what trading is all about. Hats off and thank you!
  • #85
  • Mar 11, 2012 4:43pm Mar 11, 2012 4:43pm
@dcginc nice post
As someone said, "be long on common sense without a stop loss".
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #86
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:12pm Mar 11, 2012 6:12pm
We all have graphs, we all have indicators and we all have backtested a lot of strategies, and yet we don't all trade profitably in a consistent way. I believe I have seen every possible indicator being put to the test in these forums, mixed with different kinds of other indicators to improve profitability, and yet, I haven't seen any holy grail that resists the test of time. There are of course great pearls of wisdom here and there, but they are more about using common sense, disciplined money management and human psychology rather than magic formulaes.

The success of the system threads (on FF and elsewhere) mainly stems from the "get rich quick" mentality of newbies mixed with the "I have blown my 5th account, I need help" of intermediate traders. I can't believe those who have a consistently profitable system (although "guidelines" would be a better word than "system" in my view) still roam these threads in search of tweaking something that they are already comfortable with and, more importantly, that they have fully internalized and understand.

Maybe I am wrong but I think there is no winning system in trading, just because markets cannot be approached in a systematic way. As it is the crossroads of conflicting beliefs of tens of thousands of human beings, I tend to see the market more like an organic being and not a machine which responds to the level of such and such mathematical equation.

And, in a sense, I believe this is the greatest gift for a true trader, the very same way a hunter wouldn't like to be able to buy its prey in a butcher shop. Money is of course important, but becoming a trader is really not an easy path to riches and whoever is willing to spend endless hours in front of a screen at the cost of his/her health (and sanity) should do it for other reasons as well.
  • #87
  • Mar 11, 2012 6:37pm Mar 11, 2012 6:37pm
Quoting Aldente
THE INTERVENTION:


**Family and friends gather ominously headed by a recognized Guru/Psychologist**

Dr Pill: "Billy, don't be alarmed, pleast sit down son"
{Billy eases uncomfortably onto one of the large "intervention" couches}
Mom: "Billy, what you are doing is gambling, and it has to stop, right now!"
Billy: "Um.."
Dr Pill: "Billy..do you hear what your mother is saying to you?"
Billy: "But Mom, it's not gambling...it's.."
{other family members start chiming in and murmuring}
Family: "yeah its gambling.. what is it then..?...
Yeah, amazing how everyone else recognises what it is except for the punters.

If anyone asks you what you do for a living just tell them you are gambling on the forex market. It pretty much shuts down any conversation. Then tell them to get over it so you can get on with it.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #88
  • Mar 18, 2012 12:10pm Mar 18, 2012 12:10pm
Entertaining watching the herd here on FF swarm the new hot trading system. LOL.... Indicators are being added rules being added ....it is an absolute joke show.

The new messiah is tending very carefully to his flock..Soon there will be a whole new herd of 10+ vouch idiots on there all backslapping each other.

Gotta be careful in what I say they may try and stone me ....


Happy Sunday !

Bluesteele
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #89
  • Mar 18, 2012 12:22pm Mar 18, 2012 12:22pm
i suppose we can't be surprised if most of the threads fall by the wayside, as the threads are all written by traders, and thats exactly what traders do too.

the question is, what distinguishes a thread worth following from the ones that will ultimately fail, after all, the thread author can't control who contributes to it..?
tradewith60
  • #90
  • Mar 18, 2012 1:46pm Mar 18, 2012 1:46pm
I can name at least one teaching thread that defies each of the OP's suppositions.

When I started Stairsteps I knew I was fighting an uphill battle. And I almost gave it up a couple of times, because of all the negativity and egos I was fighting against. I've been accused of lying, and cheating, and of being a scammer, when all I wanted to do was help. To be the one mentor, and offer the one system, where nothing in return was expected, except hard work and success.

I'm still here and my accusers are mostly gone. Many of the people who attacked me over the last 9 months are already banned from FF for using multiple usernames or other infractions. My conclusion is that there are people around who's sole purpose in life is to drag down their fellow traders, and to try to defeat every system that looks halfway profitable; I think that they think that they will earn better pips if they can cause others to fail. So they come in here spreading lies and false trading advice, hoping that it will make everyone else too skeptical to do any good.

The result is threads like this one, where the OP's sole desire is to lump all systems and all mentors together, no matter how honest and noble our intentions may be.

All threads die out eventually. That doesn't indicate failure, it simply means that the OP has decided that enough has been said, so they leave the thread to die, but knowing that it will remain for posterity. What, like you expect a mentor to babysit a thread forever, just because they took the time to start one? Get real! And if mine dies out tomorrow, for what ever reason, I will already know that lives and fortunes have already been changed for the good. I know that mine has. And by the volume of mail I receive, I know that a few dozen others' have as well, and that's enough for me.

An honest man has nothing to hide or be ashamed of. Stairsteps is right there for everyone to see. Billbss, LazyPawn, everyone -- honest folk that want to help are welcome at any time.

FxH
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #91
  • Mar 18, 2012 2:37pm Mar 18, 2012 2:37pm
forexhard, do you really feel that my sole purpose is to "drag down fellow traders", "to spread lies and false trading advice"? Have I ever used multiple usernames? Have I said anything about your intentions or other people's intentions? Do you see anything like that in any of my posts? I don't think so. Let me quote myself:

Quoting LazyPawn
... It is not criticizing people who post strategies. It is not criticizing strategies themselves. It's a post about human psychology. Some systems are good, others not so much. Some traders are very good, others not so much. But the post is not about that.
  • #92
  • Mar 18, 2012 3:15pm Mar 18, 2012 3:15pm
You are quoting me out of context. This is what I said about your thread/comments:

The result is threads like this one, where the OP's sole desire is to lump all systems and all mentors together, no matter how honest and noble our intentions may be.

In my opinion you have indeed lumped all systems together, regardless of the OP's intentions. I could be reading you wrong, but then maybe you could have worded the first post better. Change your wording, and quite possibly my opinion will change as well.

Many thousands of combined man hours have gone into Stairsteps, with the help of dozens of wonderful people. And lives have been changed as a result. So yes, I want everyone here to know that Stairsteps is not your typical thread. It is the FF standout. We are the one thread and the one system that defies the common FF downward trend as pointed out in your starter post. It's all there in black and white for anyone to see.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #93
  • Mar 18, 2012 3:41pm Mar 18, 2012 3:41pm
I am lumping them together from one point of view only - they all follow the same path. Not based on how good they are or how great the OP is. I said nothing bad about people who post their trading systems. Re-read the first post. I simply described what happens to those systems once they are published. The constant influx of beginners and holy-grail seekers, the desire to add new indicators, the bunch of cult following members, the confusion and so on until it fall fades into oblivion. That's all mas psychology.

The fact that you think your particular system is somehow special only goes to show that you haven't spent much time around. There were many other systems before being more profitable than your pretty basic breakout system, and had wonderful traders and coders helping. If you don't believe me just go 5-6 years back and read those old threads. But their fate was the same. I invite you to come back here 1 year from today and we'll see if my prediction is right or wrong.
  • #94
  • Mar 18, 2012 3:47pm Mar 18, 2012 3:47pm
Quoting forexhard
Many thousands of combined man hours have gone into Stairsteps,
Yes so what? There are many systems with many more hours being devoted to them. The number of hours dont mean much...only the quality matters.

Quote
And lives have been changed as a result.
From what i heard people are mostly on breakeven or making a loss by using ur system. Noone ever posted a proof of making serious money with that.

Quote
So yes, I want everyone here to know that Stairsteps is not your typical thread. It is the FF standout. We are the one thread and the one system that defies the common FF downward trend as pointed out in your starter post. It's all there in black and white for anyone to see.
The only thing that really stands out is the forexhard crying for more vouches or most posts. (like that is going to improve the quality of anything). Forexhard was trying to force others to give him vouches or else he threaten to close the thread. That crying ruined Stairsteps thread.
  • #95
  • Mar 18, 2012 3:52pm Mar 18, 2012 3:52pm
You're making my point for me. Which shows that my initial feelings on what you were trying to say were correct.

I will state for the record that my Stairstep thread -- which is already over 9 months old with almost 500,000 views -- has defied, and will continue to defy, your predictions. Stairsteps has not taken the so-called traditional downward arc that so many other threads have taken, nor will it if I have anything to say about it. And I do.

I never said Stairsteps was the only profitable system here at FF. I said it was a rare thread that didn't follow your blueprint. And it doesn't.

YOU come back in a year. Stairsteps still won't have any more filters or indicators than it does now, and the system itself will still be making a lot of people pips.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #96
  • Mar 18, 2012 3:56pm Mar 18, 2012 3:56pm
Quote
The only thing that really stands out is the forexhard crying for more vouches or most posts. (like that is going to improve the quality of anything). Forexhard was trying to force others to give him vouches or else he threaten to close the thread. That crying ruined Stairsteps thread.

This is a fucking lie. I have never threatened anyone if they didn't vouch for me or vote for my thread. The entire thread is right there for anyone to read. What a fucking tool. This is exactly what I mean. This is the type of comments that keep a decent person from posting their ideas. Because then idiots like this get to come in and say anything they want, just because they want to spoil the party for everyone else. Idiots like you think that by hurting someone else your own trading is improved.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #97
  • Mar 18, 2012 4:07pm Mar 18, 2012 4:07pm
Quoting forexhard
You're making my point for me. Which shows that my initial feelings on what you were trying to say were correct.
YOU come back in a year. Stairsteps still won't have any more filters or indicators than it does now, and the system itself will still be making a lot of people pips.
I don't understand how I'm making your point for you when I clearly explained several times that the way these threads evolve is not the OP's fault. But I'll leave it at that, I don't want to argue with people having huge egos and no sense of humor. And yes, I will be here one year from today.
  • #98
  • Mar 18, 2012 4:31pm Mar 18, 2012 4:31pm
Actually, it is the OP's fault. So maybe that's why we're not seeing eye-to-eye. As a system thread starter I can tell you that it is not easy to keep a tight reign on your thread, but it is possible. You end up having to ban a few idiots, who then come back in other forums and tell lies about you, but such is life.

The biggest reason why systems change personality to such a wide degree over time, is that they weren't really systems to begin with. In most cases they are just excercises in ego. But occasionally you get a real mentor coming forward offering some actual proven trading advice free of charge.
To improve is to change. To perfect, is to change often.
  • #99
  • Mar 18, 2012 4:49pm Mar 18, 2012 4:49pm
Quoting forexhard
But occasionally you get a real mentor coming forward offering some actual proven trading advice free of charge.
OK, I see ... That would be you.

A sample:

Quoting forexhard
So here's the deal. I will start releasing the new tools publicly where we can all benefit from them when one of two things happens: the thread reaches 50 pages, and/or I reach 10 vouchers -- which ever comes first. I don't care which it is, I just want to see a bunch more activity surrounding the system so I know the guys helping behind the scenes, and the tools they are helping me design, eventually receive the proper level of thanks and recognition.
50 pages or 10 vouchers. You guys decide.
Poor traders, what can they do? Their guru is threatening to leave.
  • #100
  • Mar 18, 2012 4:54pm Mar 18, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting forexhard
This is a fucking lie. I have never threatened anyone if they didn't vouch for me or vote for my thread.
Oh really? well lets look at some of your posts there

Quote
1) Likewise, I predict this thread will die off relatively quickly; I will be very surprised if it will even reach 10 pages long.
Quote
2)And I wake up to see I now have THREE vouchers! This means my vouchers are growing at 300% per day. Fantastic! Now, if only I could make my account grow that fast!
Quote
3)To FXreds, Duffy, porfirio, etc.: You guys suck! Because of you dweebs I'm over the ten page mark. Now I own a real live bonafide thread here at the FF. Do you realize how respectable this is going to make me look? I'm up to 5 vouchers already! I might actually have to come up with some sage trading advice from now on thanks to you newbies! So thanks for nothing!
Reply With Quote
and crybaby award of the month goes to this one

Quote
4)So here's the deal. I will start releasing the new tools publicly where we can all benefit from them when one of two things happens: the thread reaches 50 pages, and/or I reach 10 vouchers -- which ever comes first. I don't care which it is

50 pages or 10 vouchers. You guys decide.
Its pretty much obvious that you only care about stupid vouches or how many posts your thread has. Big EGO --> no skills.
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