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AUD/USD

  • #41,981
  • Mar 16, 2012 1:49pm Mar 16, 2012 1:49pm
Quoting ahmad37
Hi, Friends,

I am very new in this forum also in Forex trading, kindly advise me where i can get the latest news for forex trading, specially for AUDUSD? any web site?

2nd what you expect AUDUSD will more bearish or there is chance of bullish, I got entry on 1.430, still going in small loss,
kindly waiting your advise,
Forex media all garbage I often think they intentionally confuse people to screw you over. Read a couple books keep an open mind, but most of all learn to read charts well and react it rather then pedict.

Yesterday I was undecided but now leaning towards bullish, on weekly we have a bullish candle and we just had the strongest rally since the down move of 850. Now this could be just a retrace before heavy selling , 650 is the level to watch it is the low of all that range crap we had for several weeks.
  • #41,982
  • Mar 16, 2012 2:07pm Mar 16, 2012 2:07pm
Oops, someone forgot and left the gate open to the bull pen.
I am long again at 1.0579. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #41,983
  • Mar 16, 2012 2:47pm Mar 16, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting ahmad37
Hi, Friends,

I am very new in this forum also in Forex trading, kindly advise me where i can get the latest news for forex trading, specially for AUDUSD? any web site?

2nd what you expect AUDUSD will more bearish or there is chance of bullish, I got entry on 1.430, still going in small loss,
kindly waiting your advise,
Forgot to mention watch your drawdowns if you Gained 10% this month but risked say -30% your essentially wasting your time sooner or later you will take a big loss and that's over for you financially and mentally. Always risk less to gain more or your wasting your time. Always. Learn to build into positions.
  • #41,984
  • Mar 16, 2012 7:01pm Mar 16, 2012 7:01pm
As FX-Petra has pointed out, when you trade AUD/USD you should either be long, or out of the market. When you are short and waiting for a rally, you will be paying the swap. Seeing the cost of swap mounting up day by day, you will soon close your short in disgust, just before the Audie starts to drop. Long term, I don't think there are any bad long positions, except maybe 1.1000 and above. Be patient and buy the pull backs. Know and limit your risk: If the Euro fails, the Audie could fall to 60 cents, as everyone flees to the USD. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif
  • #41,985
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:54pm Mar 16, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting jerrycollie
As FX-Petra has pointed out, when you trade AUD/USD you should either be long, or out of the market. When you are short and waiting for a rally, you will be paying the swap. Seeing the cost of swap mounting up day by day, you will soon close your short in disgust, just before the Audie starts to drop. Long term, I don't think there are any bad long positions, except maybe 1.1000 and above. Be patient and buy the pull backs. Know and limit your risk: If the Euro fails, the Audie could fall to 60 cents, as everyone flees to the USD. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif...
i had same mentality , but this week one of my ff buddy showed me i was wrong.

on feb 29th price hit 85x on 15th of marth it touched 0.42x aprox. 430 pip selling rally , swap 1.5 pip a day, total swap can't go more than 30 pip do the math. those who don't use s/l should be worried about swap , traders with proper plan can go short and make good money
Mohan
  • #41,986
  • Mar 17, 2012 12:19am Mar 17, 2012 12:19am
Aussie is seemingly turning back upwards after breaking the H4 descending trendline and SMA34, plus we have a bullish divergence showing with the TRIX.

Attached Image


A retest of the broken levels (1.0550/30) could occur before continuing towards upper zone of resistance at around 1.0650/70 and if this level is also broken we would be talking of a retest of February highs around 1.0850.

Attached Image


H1 shows a strong bullish flag, however TRIX looks overbought and that's why I think a pullback to the break should occur before any bullish continuation over the resistance zone (although the 1.0650/70 test might happen first).

Attached Image


Beware though of the scenario on daily charts, as we still seem in a downtrend there, price being below SMA34 and although the run down to the 38.2% retracement was stopped midway and price went back above the rising trendline after a short poke, we are heading into a secondary resistance at late February's lows, so we could still aim towards that level to around 1.0317 (1.0300/20 zone).

Attached Image
  • #41,987
  • Mar 17, 2012 12:51pm Mar 17, 2012 12:51pm
Quoting doblece
Aussie is seemingly turning back upwards after breaking the H4 descending trendline and SMA34, plus we have a bullish divergence showing with the TRIX.
Very good analysis Doblece, and I concord.
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #41,988
  • Mar 17, 2012 1:00pm Mar 17, 2012 1:00pm
Quoting jerrycollie
As FX-Petra has pointed out, when you trade AUD/USD you should either be long, or out of the market. When you are short and waiting for a rally, you will be paying the swap. Seeing the cost of swap mounting up day by day, you will soon close your short in disgust, just before the Audie starts to drop. Long term, I don't think there are any bad long positions, except maybe 1.1000 and above. Be patient and buy the pull backs. Know and limit your risk: If the Euro fails, the Audie could fall to 60 cents, as everyone flees to the USD. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/dollar.gif...
since retailers finally getting this we are seeing it drop. Ive been saying this for months but now since retailers think this way expecting strong bear nxt week
  • #41,989
  • Mar 17, 2012 1:05pm Mar 17, 2012 1:05pm
Quoting FX-Petra
The question is, should I be long, or should I be out? Being short this pair has been mostly heartache for almost 2 yrs now. Why try to make money short with that horrible roll just clobbering you over the head every day? Until the fundamental outlook changes for intrest rates, this pair will drift upwards absent some news temporarily driving it down.

Regards,
yea but talks of china hard landing rising also snp aud correlation breaking and usd general strength
  • #41,990
  • Mar 17, 2012 6:52pm Mar 17, 2012 6:52pm
NZD/JPY up 13.12 year to date. The S&P surges 11.7% year to date. Fearless investors knock VIX down to 14.5, the lowest since 2007. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #41,991
  • Mar 17, 2012 7:09pm Mar 17, 2012 7:09pm
Hi mohan76 and sidhujag,
You both make good points, and price does drop faster than it goes up. Certainly an experienced trader could make money shorting AUD/USD; but being just a dog, I am not that smart. Please keep a spreadsheet of your short and long trades for a couple of months and let me know which way made the most money. Maybe I will have to change direction?
Good luck! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #41,992
  • Mar 17, 2012 8:06pm Mar 17, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting jerrycollie
Hi mohan76 and sidhujag,
You both make good points, and price does drop faster than it goes up. Certainly an experienced trader could make money shorting AUD/USD; but being just a dog, I am not that smart. Please keep a spreadsheet of your short and long trades for a couple of months and let me know which way made the most money. Maybe I will have to change direction?
Good luck! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Well Mr. Jerry Collie...even a dog knows where to find a bone when it sniffs it out.
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #41,993
  • Mar 18, 2012 4:28am Mar 18, 2012 4:28am
Could be a downwards move on Monday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #41,994
  • Mar 18, 2012 8:17am Mar 18, 2012 8:17am
Quoting Pat494
Could be a downwards move on Monday.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/...d-usd-outlook/
More on my Blog...
  • #41,995
  • Mar 18, 2012 10:10am Mar 18, 2012 10:10am
possible weekly scenario
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_04 Mar. 18 16.07.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #41,996
  • Mar 18, 2012 10:14am Mar 18, 2012 10:14am
Quoting torkay77
possible weekly scenario
little chance of the fifth wave is the largest
More on my Blog...
  • #41,997
  • Mar 18, 2012 10:16am Mar 18, 2012 10:16am
Quoting mv6
little chance of the fifth wave is the largest
true, have to count again
  • #41,998
  • Mar 18, 2012 10:39am Mar 18, 2012 10:39am
Quoting mv6
http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/...d-usd-outlook/
Daily trendline is broken, unless the first daily candle turns out to be a regret candle, going long could be a viable option.

But I do hope that 1.0520/40 is retested first so that I can hop on at a better price.
  • #41,999
  • Mar 18, 2012 10:48am Mar 18, 2012 10:48am
Quoting jayjb
Daily trendline is broken, unless the first daily candle turns out to be a regret candle, going long could be a viable option.

But I do hope that 1.0520/40 is retested first so that I can hop on at a better price.

I have been following your posts for a little while now. You seem to be right on a lot of the time. What are you using to make such good judgments?
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #42,000
  • Mar 18, 2012 11:05am Mar 18, 2012 11:05am
Quoting Pat494
Could be a downwards move on Monday.
Looks more like a Bull flag, which would take it higher before lower.
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