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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #108,881
  • Mar 16, 2012 11:37am Mar 16, 2012 11:37am
Would you have entered this trade?
if u were to know the subsequent one bar after the pin bar?
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  • #108,882
  • Mar 16, 2012 12:14pm Mar 16, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting balloontree
Would you have entered this trade?
if u were to know the subsequent one bar after the pin bar?
Hey Balloon

The most traditional way to enter these bars when learning is to wait for what is called a break. In this case we would want to put our order below that pinbar which the next bar would not trigger if you use any sort of buffer(buffer meaning some pips away so you know you get a solid break). Many people will let that order sit until it triggers or the bar is invalidated(if price goes ABOVE the high of the bar)

Hope that helps
Mike
  • #108,883
  • Mar 16, 2012 4:17pm Mar 16, 2012 4:17pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Balloon

The most traditional way to enter these bars when learning is to wait for what is called a break. In this case we would want to put our order below that pinbar which the next bar would not trigger if you use any sort of buffer(buffer meaning some pips away so you know you get a solid break). Many people will let that order sit until it triggers or the bar is invalidated(if price goes ABOVE the high of the bar)

Hope that helps
Mike

Hey Mike, how many pips away do you use as a buffer?
  • #108,884
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:33pm Mar 16, 2012 5:33pm
Quoting equivestor12
Hey Mike, how many pips away do you use as a buffer?
Hey Equi

It varies from timeframe to timeframe. Here is sort of a general guide I give people that I use. I also am aware of things like bar highs/lows round numbers etc

1hr - 8-12
4hr - 10-15
daily 12-20
weekly 15-30

That's a rough guide but to give you an idea

Enjoy the weekend
Mike
  • #108,885
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:36pm Mar 16, 2012 5:36pm
Quoting balloontree
Would you have entered this trade?
if u were to know the subsequent one bar after the pin bar?
Would have to look further out. One thing that is taught in this thread is not to take pinbar by itself but to look at where it is located.
  • #108,886
  • Mar 16, 2012 7:19pm Mar 16, 2012 7:19pm
This is my first time doing a trade using D1 timeframe; I think I got too greedy. Could someone tell me how you would manage your trades? When should you be satisfied and say, okay, I'm going to take the wins, and leave some for the next guy?


This is a GBPUSD on a D1 timeframe.

Step 1
Upon seeing the pinbar, I placed:
- a short at the low of bar + buffer
- a SL at the high of bar + buffer
- a initial 1st TP; reason being it's on double fibo lines (76.4 of big wave, and 50 of small wave)

Step 2
- after one day later I feel a bit discourage because the price didn't move downwards
- instead it seemed to move upwards, but didn't break the high of the pinbar
- was confused and not sure if I should remove the pending short order

Step 3
- then the price began to move down and it nearly hit my 1st TP
- it pull back for a while, and I move my TP to the 2nd TP
- and I placed my SL to BE

Step 4
- then it broke thru the 1st TP, but not yet hit the 2nd TP
- it pull back for a while, and I move my TP to the 3rd TP
- and I placed my SL to 1st TP

Step 5
- then it broke thru the 2nd TP, but not yet hit the 3rd TP
- it pull back for a while, and I move my TP to the 4th TP
- I didn't move my stop loss; still at 1st TP (is this what I have done wrong?)

Step 6
- after a while, I was thinking, the distance of 3rd TP and 4th TP are quite small, surely it would be hit?
- so I moved my TP to 5th TP


And for a few days I was worried sick; looking at the price movement, and finally stop out at 1st TP

gain of $1k+ instead of $5k+; but I was feeling sad



Reasons for TP
- 1st TP; double fibo (76.4 of big wave + 50 of small wave)
- 2nd TP; 61.8 of big wave + price response to it awhile ago
- 3rd TP; price response to it awhile ago
- 4th TP; 50 of big wave - James16 mentioned it's being a Final Destination?
- 5th TP; 38.2 of big wave + price response to it awhile ago




Would you guys have down it differently? How? Trade management, couldn't find much info on this in James16 thread?
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  • #108,887
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:49pm Mar 16, 2012 10:49pm
Is it a higher probability setup when price breaks the pin on the next bar, as opposed to when it happens two or more bars later?

Example:

On the chart, the pin bar (1) is followed by a bullish bar (2) which obviously didn't break through to the downside immediately. Let's say this occurred at a good resistance zone, and everything else looked good. Would you continue to look to sell a break down unless price invalidated the pin by breaking above it first, or would you decide not to take it after a specific amount of time has passed without a break down.

What I'm getting at is; how important is it that the momentum from the pin bar is continued immediately after it closes? Is time a factor in considering whether to enter, or not? If it is, then what would be a reasonable amount of time to wait?

Thanks for the help.

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  • #108,888
  • Mar 17, 2012 1:34am Mar 17, 2012 1:34am
I'm posting 4 failed trades from the end of this week for Mike, jaroo and anyone to comment on. I know that some of the pin bars are not J16 textbook setups and neither are some of the LCS/HCR levels so i'm not reallly concerned about my entries here. I'm wondering how I could have marked out my FTA levels better and how I could have managed these trades.

eur/use: I entered a 4hr pin. I could clearly define a FTA level on the 1hr and could see it bounce and react to this level on the 15 min. Should I have taken profit and moved my stop to BE when I saw it reacting on the 15? Would this have been the appropriate way to managet the trade?

usd/chf: I can't see a FTA but price did react at 09.2500 RN. On the 15 min chart it made a doulbe top at this RN.
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  • #108,889
  • Mar 17, 2012 3:18am Mar 17, 2012 3:18am
EU has come back to 1.3180 again. here is still the resistance area.the 365ema, the pin bar .even shorting here is risky , my sl at 1.3190. the main trend is down ,in the short term, 1.3120 is the key point now .

just my opinion .enjoy your weekend .
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A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #108,890
  • Mar 17, 2012 6:56am Mar 17, 2012 6:56am
This double top looks interesting for next week.

Daily TF is showing divergence kicking in.
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  • #108,891
  • Mar 17, 2012 8:38am Mar 17, 2012 8:38am
Quoting equivestor12
I'm posting 4 failed trades from the end of this week for Mike, jaroo and anyone to comment on...
Hi there

I'm neither Mike or Jarroo but happy to chip in.

I would leave your trades to the seniors, only I will say that your feed maybe hindering you.

I've attached a chart based on your EURUSD 4h example and how different your trade plan could have been if using a NYC close:

- White chart, NYC close
- Black chart (yours) not NYC close
- The levels in red are what I currently have on my chart and are not drawn in hindsight. If you are using the close of a bar on a different feed, they will be in different locations.
- Highlighted PB was not traded. I probably would have if in front of the screen.

Given how specific I am about my levels and story, the right feed is very important.

Ignore me if you know all this.
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  • #108,892
  • Mar 17, 2012 8:51am Mar 17, 2012 8:51am
Quoting 5.25
Something on my radar.

A nice retest with PA would be very nice
Price failed to hold as support, no PA, no entry.

Nice opportunity to have gone short though. Good 4H level, followed by good 4H PA. I still prefer the strength of higher TF levels.

Happy weekend.
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  • #108,893
  • Mar 17, 2012 8:59am Mar 17, 2012 8:59am
Quoting 5.25
Hi there

I'm neither Mike or Jarroo but happy to chip in.

I would leave your trades to the seniors, only I will say that your feed maybe hindering you.

I've attached a chart based on your EURUSD 4h example and how different your trade plan could have been if using a NYC close:

- White chart, NYC close
- Black chart (yours) not NYC close
- The levels in red are what I currently have on my chart and are not drawn in hindsight. If you are using the close of a bar on a different feed, they will be in different locations.
- Highlighted PB was...

Could be a nice long term trade. That huge BUOB just prior had little impact.
  • #108,894
  • Mar 17, 2012 9:34am Mar 17, 2012 9:34am
Quoting equivestor12
I'm posting 4 failed trades from the end of this week for Mike, jaroo and anyone to comment on. I know that some of the pin bars are not J16 textbook setups and neither are some of the LCS/HCR levels so i'm not reallly concerned about my entries here. I'm wondering how I could have marked out my FTA levels better and how I could have managed these trades.

eur/use: I entered a 4hr pin. I could clearly define a FTA level on the 1hr and could see it bounce and react to this level on the 15 min. Should I have taken profit and moved my stop to BE...
Hey Equi

You said above that your not really concerned about your entries, but that to me is most of the battle for the above charts. Your FTA look good and all bout 2 really got to them. But most of the above trades my focus would be towards your entries as this is how we really hone down good points to get in which will in turn lead to higher probability trades from start to finish. a lot of So-so bars will make it to their FTA but in my view you would be missing the majority of what the material will provide you after time and practice.

As for managing a trade I almost always only do it on the same timeframe I enter for simplicity sake

Sorry wasn't much help here but if you want me to go back over the entries themselves I would be more then glad to just let me know

Best
Mike
  • #108,895
  • Mar 17, 2012 10:12am Mar 17, 2012 10:12am
Quoting balloontree
This is my first time doing a trade using D1 timeframe; I think I got too greedy. Could someone tell me how you would manage your trades? When should you be satisfied and say, okay, I'm going to take the wins, and leave some for the next guy?


This is a GBPUSD on a D1 timeframe.

Step 1
Upon seeing the pinbar, I placed:
- a short at the low of bar + buffer
- a SL at the high of bar + buffer
- a initial 1st TP; reason being it's on double fibo lines (76.4 of big wave, and 50 of small wave)

Step 2
- after one day later I feel a bit...
For one, that pin bar was poor. For a few very obvious reasons

The bar itself was small. Think of it this way. A small road header digs through and cuts open a tunnel through soft lime stone while you'll need a bigger bulkier more powerful road header if you have to cut through rocky granite for a tunnel. You need a big pin bar with all its assertion to dig through close by FTAs. So a small pin bar headed into traffic is an absolute NO NO.

It takes only a bit of practice to make out perfect sense of what price is trying to do and yes even when price is chopping around.

For your ease I have marked reactions at different PPZs with different color arrows. See the first set of 3 yellow arrows? They show you why price didn't break for you straight away and decided to pull back into the pin bar.

The second set of blue arrows show another PPZ reacting almost perfectly. The third set of arrows point to a third PPZ that held at first and eventually gave in.

There is something very striking in all of these PPZs and its absolutely crucial. THEY ARE AT ROUND NUMBERS

Most games in these markets are pivoted around round numbers and these 00 price levels attract all kinds of order flow. Do you see a rectangle I have drawn above 1.6? You see how this pin bar was a much better setup if price had tested the BRN 1.6 and some part beyond it? And yes this would have also meant that the pin bar would have had a stronger bigger look.

Try following your trades as they fall into and react at Round numbers, specially when these line up with recent bar highs and lows such as 1.58 on this occasion. Because the markets are not efficient enough to work to the pip all the time, don't forget to trail your stops leaving a bit of leeway for price to test a round number and some part beyond it. For instance notice how the third blue arrow on the 1.58 ppz shows an imperfect retest to the RN PPZ in the sense that it didn't hold to the pip.

All the best.

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #108,896
  • Mar 17, 2012 10:33am Mar 17, 2012 10:33am
Lower highs and lows on weekly. Can't make it past the 365 daily or the 60 weekly. Me thinks we're headed for another lower low on weekly. I hear 52000 calling
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  • #108,897
  • Mar 17, 2012 11:18am Mar 17, 2012 11:18am
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  • #108,898
  • Mar 17, 2012 11:34am Mar 17, 2012 11:34am
Quoting PistolDave
Is it a higher probability setup when price breaks the pin on the next bar, as opposed to when it happens two or more bars later?

Example:

On the chart, the pin bar (1) is followed by a bullish bar (2) which obviously didn't break through to the downside immediately. Let's say this occurred at a good resistance zone, and everything else looked good. Would you continue to look to sell a break down unless price invalidated the pin by breaking above it first, or would you decide not to take it after a specific amount of time has passed without...
Hey Dave

I personally like to see the next bar break. It's a way I measure momentum. And it keeps me consistent. BUT I certainly don't believe that you have to do it that way. I think the bar still remains in play but as new bars print you may want to re-evaluate depending on the setup/location. Many people leave the order pending until it either triggers or the bar invalidates

Best
Mike
  • #108,899
  • Mar 17, 2012 11:43am Mar 17, 2012 11:43am
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  • #108,900
  • Mar 17, 2012 11:50am Mar 17, 2012 11:50am
still like to sell this close to 70.00 level with stops above.... imho we are good for a certain correction here after that 1000 pip rally up

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Hero calls followed by margin calls...
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