Will begin to log my posts in here from next week onwards.
Meanwhile, do visit me at my blog!
Meanwhile, do visit me at my blog!
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TRADER-TAN.BLOGSPOT.COM
TRADE ANALYSIS
FOR 12 MARCH 2012
FOREWORD AND DISCLAIMER
•Thanks all for subscribing! If you have downloaded from the blog, thank you as well!
•Like the same as any other forex sites/blogs, all views are my personal views and you understand that I will not bear any responsibility for any losses incurred from these views. As much as I’d like to be as accurate as possible to create a win-win situation (there is no benefit for me if you incur losses, most likely I’ll be losing too), there is no 100% in trading
•Do visit my site at trader-tan.blogspot.com for latest analysis
•There is only me, myself and I on this blog, so please do not expect ALL pairs to be analysed. I’ll die before you know it. If you have a pair you need an alternative view, please e-mail me [email protected] and let me know in advance.
•And please allow typo mistakes. I believe you can read your charts and know where I’ve been ridiculous. E-mail me please, and tell me to make the amendments! Greatly appreciated.
•Same goes if you have any suggestions. E-mail me. I’m a suggestion-guy.
•Any advertisements, donations, defamatory comments, are most welcome also.
•To subscribe daily analysis to your e-mail, drop me your e-mail at my mailbox. Or signup at the blogspot.
Thank you, and hope this will be helpful.
RECAP FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY
•EUR
Greek unable to secure a deal without CDC – only 85% participation rate. This is as good as having not enough support and thus failing. Participation rate reaches 95.7% with use of CDC to enforce the deal.
ISDA triggers the CDC.
Greece downgraded by Moody’s from C to restricted default.
•U.K.
Manufacturing Production m/m 0.1% weaker than expected 0.3%.
U.K. PPI Input m/m 2.1% stronger than expected 0.9%.
GBP down 40 pips on release on news. Inflation signaling More QE?
•CANADA
Unemployment at 7.4%, lower than expectations of 7.6%.
Employment Change comes in at -2.8k, way off expected of 14.2k.
Traders undecided in a 30 pips range after the release.
•U.S.
Non-Farm Payrolls rise 227k, better than expected.
Trade balance at -52.6B, off expected of -48.9B. US Jan trade deficit largest since 2008
Unemployment rate remains at 8.3%
NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR
(All Time in +8 GMT)
TIMECURRENCYNEWS
7.50AMJPYCore Machinery Orders m/m
CURRENT SENTIMENT
•Latest COT reports 61% net EUR long contracts. This will not bode well for EUR longs.
(http://eurusddaily.com/cot-report-sh...-counterparts/)
•Strong NFP report. The most anticipated report of the month still comes in a positive light. Traders will be torn here – risk on? Or USD up risk pairs down?
•EZ saga is finally over, for the moment. Expect traders to stay on the sideline for Monday and wait for the big players to set the trend before jumping in. Therefore, consolidation is expected to set into Monday’s trend, until BOJ’s rate decision on Tuesday morning. This will be especially since Monday’s data will be very light.
EURUSD DAILY CHART
THEME: EXPECT CONSOLIDATION WITH DOWNSIDE BIAS
Confidence level: 60-70%. The Green bar is my guess for the day.
I have altered the chart a little from the one I posted last Friday. This chart should be a little bit more interesting. Any Elliot Wave techs watching care to comment?
However, I’m not one of them, and I trade simple. Real simple. My bias for the day is simple consolidation, but downside biased, since few hours into Friday’s close saw very little rally and much bearish movements.
Support: 1.30700 – 1.30500. More at 1.30000.(in beige)
Two ways to play here: support comes from 50DMA as well as many of the supports that lie there as pivot points. But don’t expect it to bounce like your basketball.
Resistance: 1.32326. Critical at 1.33100 (in pink)
Preferred mode of play here: sell the rally. Downtrend with Fibonacci in place, 3 DMAs on top, support-turned-resistance trendline. I doubt the pair will crash tomorrow, but more likely on Tuesday after traders have fully digested the EZ news.
USDCAD DAILY CHART
THEME: SELL RALLIES TOWARDS PIVOT AT 0.99248
Confidence: 50%
Two closes below the 200DMA! How about THAT! To be frank, I know nuts about this pair. This gives you a perfectly technical analysis huh?
The resistance and support has been draw up for you, so do take a good look. Personally I’ve not much to comment on this pair. But I’d recommend a short throughout the whole day, unless a close above par.
AUDUSD DAILY CHART
THEME: Sell ANY Rally
Confidence level: 70-80%
If you have followed by blog closely, you’d have noticed that I’ve raved and ranted about the weak fundamentals and the pair not even dropping at all. Then I went on to close at a 3pip profit just before the NFP, and the pair immediately crashed down.
Support: 1.05210, 1.04783, all the way to 1.04000 (in orange)
Hmmmm. Do I have to say more? My final target would be somewhere at 1.02620 where the 200DMA and 50% Fibonacci kicks in (in pink).
Resistance: 1.06500 all the way to 1.07(in green)
Lower highs, lower lows. Resisted nicely by a trendline. Bad fundamentals. What else do you need? Fade any rallies. Stoploss above 1.07145 which is 20DMA. Can hardly think that will happen.
“When the fundamental and technical outlooks for a currency converge, go for it! Take a more aggressive position than normal.” (Forexlive)
END OF REPORT
download full report here
TRADE ANALYSIS
FOR 12 MARCH 2012
FOREWORD AND DISCLAIMER
•Thanks all for subscribing! If you have downloaded from the blog, thank you as well!
•Like the same as any other forex sites/blogs, all views are my personal views and you understand that I will not bear any responsibility for any losses incurred from these views. As much as I’d like to be as accurate as possible to create a win-win situation (there is no benefit for me if you incur losses, most likely I’ll be losing too), there is no 100% in trading
•Do visit my site at trader-tan.blogspot.com for latest analysis
•There is only me, myself and I on this blog, so please do not expect ALL pairs to be analysed. I’ll die before you know it. If you have a pair you need an alternative view, please e-mail me [email protected] and let me know in advance.
•And please allow typo mistakes. I believe you can read your charts and know where I’ve been ridiculous. E-mail me please, and tell me to make the amendments! Greatly appreciated.
•Same goes if you have any suggestions. E-mail me. I’m a suggestion-guy.
•Any advertisements, donations, defamatory comments, are most welcome also.
•To subscribe daily analysis to your e-mail, drop me your e-mail at my mailbox. Or signup at the blogspot.
Thank you, and hope this will be helpful.
RECAP FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY
•EUR
Greek unable to secure a deal without CDC – only 85% participation rate. This is as good as having not enough support and thus failing. Participation rate reaches 95.7% with use of CDC to enforce the deal.
ISDA triggers the CDC.
Greece downgraded by Moody’s from C to restricted default.
•U.K.
Manufacturing Production m/m 0.1% weaker than expected 0.3%.
U.K. PPI Input m/m 2.1% stronger than expected 0.9%.
GBP down 40 pips on release on news. Inflation signaling More QE?
•CANADA
Unemployment at 7.4%, lower than expectations of 7.6%.
Employment Change comes in at -2.8k, way off expected of 14.2k.
Traders undecided in a 30 pips range after the release.
•U.S.
Non-Farm Payrolls rise 227k, better than expected.
Trade balance at -52.6B, off expected of -48.9B. US Jan trade deficit largest since 2008
Unemployment rate remains at 8.3%
NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR
(All Time in +8 GMT)
TIMECURRENCYNEWS
7.50AMJPYCore Machinery Orders m/m
CURRENT SENTIMENT
•Latest COT reports 61% net EUR long contracts. This will not bode well for EUR longs.
(http://eurusddaily.com/cot-report-sh...-counterparts/)
•Strong NFP report. The most anticipated report of the month still comes in a positive light. Traders will be torn here – risk on? Or USD up risk pairs down?
•EZ saga is finally over, for the moment. Expect traders to stay on the sideline for Monday and wait for the big players to set the trend before jumping in. Therefore, consolidation is expected to set into Monday’s trend, until BOJ’s rate decision on Tuesday morning. This will be especially since Monday’s data will be very light.
EURUSD DAILY CHART
THEME: EXPECT CONSOLIDATION WITH DOWNSIDE BIAS
Confidence level: 60-70%. The Green bar is my guess for the day.
I have altered the chart a little from the one I posted last Friday. This chart should be a little bit more interesting. Any Elliot Wave techs watching care to comment?
However, I’m not one of them, and I trade simple. Real simple. My bias for the day is simple consolidation, but downside biased, since few hours into Friday’s close saw very little rally and much bearish movements.
Support: 1.30700 – 1.30500. More at 1.30000.(in beige)
Two ways to play here: support comes from 50DMA as well as many of the supports that lie there as pivot points. But don’t expect it to bounce like your basketball.
Resistance: 1.32326. Critical at 1.33100 (in pink)
Preferred mode of play here: sell the rally. Downtrend with Fibonacci in place, 3 DMAs on top, support-turned-resistance trendline. I doubt the pair will crash tomorrow, but more likely on Tuesday after traders have fully digested the EZ news.
USDCAD DAILY CHART
THEME: SELL RALLIES TOWARDS PIVOT AT 0.99248
Confidence: 50%
Two closes below the 200DMA! How about THAT! To be frank, I know nuts about this pair. This gives you a perfectly technical analysis huh?
The resistance and support has been draw up for you, so do take a good look. Personally I’ve not much to comment on this pair. But I’d recommend a short throughout the whole day, unless a close above par.
AUDUSD DAILY CHART
THEME: Sell ANY Rally
Confidence level: 70-80%
If you have followed by blog closely, you’d have noticed that I’ve raved and ranted about the weak fundamentals and the pair not even dropping at all. Then I went on to close at a 3pip profit just before the NFP, and the pair immediately crashed down.
Support: 1.05210, 1.04783, all the way to 1.04000 (in orange)
Hmmmm. Do I have to say more? My final target would be somewhere at 1.02620 where the 200DMA and 50% Fibonacci kicks in (in pink).
Resistance: 1.06500 all the way to 1.07(in green)
Lower highs, lower lows. Resisted nicely by a trendline. Bad fundamentals. What else do you need? Fade any rallies. Stoploss above 1.07145 which is 20DMA. Can hardly think that will happen.
“When the fundamental and technical outlooks for a currency converge, go for it! Take a more aggressive position than normal.” (Forexlive)
END OF REPORT
download full report here
TRADE OF THE WEEK - GBPJPY SHORT
Here's the trade of the week - GBPJPY
Kinda risky ahead of the BOJ rate decision tomorrow.
But Forex is all about risk isn't it?
Pair is currently capped by 100 MA on the weekly chart, followed by a lower high and lower low for the past two weeks.
Since the pair is pretty heavy still, I will anticipate it to search for the 126.000 area where 50MA, double bottom pivot, before continuing it leg up higher later into late this year and probably into the next.
TRADER-TAN.BLOGSPOT.COM
TRADE ANALYSIS
FOR 13 MARCH 2012
FOREWORD AND DISCLAIMER
•Thanks all for subscribing! If you have downloaded from the blog, thank you as well!
•Like the same as any other forex sites/blogs, all views are my personal views and you understand that I will not bear any responsibility for any losses incurred from these views. As much as I’d like to be as accurate as possible to create a win-win situation (there is no benefit for me if you incur losses, most likely I’ll be losing too), there is no 100% in trading
•Do visit my site at trader-tan.blogspot.com for latest analysis
•There is only me, myself and I on this blog, so please do not expect ALL pairs to be analysed. I’ll die before you know it. If you have a pair you need an alternative view, please e-mail me [email protected] and let me know in advance.
•And please allow typo mistakes. I believe you can read your charts and know where I’ve been ridiculous. E-mail me please, and tell me to make the amendments! Greatly appreciated.
•Same goes if you have any suggestions. E-mail me. I’m a suggestion-guy.
•Any advertisements, donations, defamatory comments, are most welcome also.
•To subscribe daily analysis to your e-mail, drop me your e-mail at my mailbox. Or signup at the blogspot.
Thank you, and hope this will be helpful.
RECAP FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY
JPY
Fin Min: Yen still overvalued. Will Take Decisive Steps against Excessive Forex Volatility
EUR
EC Proposes Suspending Euro 495m Funds To Hungary
AUD
Macquarie Bank downgraded by Fitch to BBB
Home loans comes in at -1.2%, weaker than expected of 0.5%
NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR
(All Time in +8 GMT)
TIMECURRENCYNEWS
8.30AMAUD HOME LOANS M/M
8.30AMAUDNAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
-JPYMONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
-JPYOVERNIGHT CALL RATE
4.15PMCHFPPI M/M
5.30PMGBPTRADE BALANCE
6.00PMEURGERMAN ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT
6.00PMEURZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT
8.30PMEURPRESIDENT DRAGHI SPEAKS
8.30PMUSDCORE RETAIL SALES M/M
8.30PMUSDRETAIL SALES M/M
10.00PMUSDBUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M
2.15AMUSDFOMC STATEMENT
CURRENT SENTIMENT
•VERY VERY light data yesterday means that flows were pretty genuinely taking positions ahead of the FOMC statement at 2.15am and Bernanke’s speech later.
•Look for traders to stay short of JPY as they will hope for some form of intervention. However, all these will most likely go up in smoke as Fin Min is most likely going to exercise some verbal workout. (Long USDJPY)
•After that look for traders to dump their short JPY and and short USD instead as traders may try to actualize/anticipate the bond buying program that has haunted the USD on Friday (Short USDJPY)
•Not sure how much ZEW economic sentiment will affect the risk on or off, as well as Mr Draghi, but take note of it nevertheless.
EURUSD DAILY CHART
THEME: CHALLENGE THE TOPSIDE MILDLY
Confidence level: 50-60%
Depending on how the news work out today, the EU pair could witness a very big move today. But news aside, I would believe that after a day of knocking the 50DMA floor (which has capped the pair’s losses since 26 Jan) and failed, traders will be looking for a little risk on action today. The ZEW data had a read of surprisingly good 5.4%, and let’s see what it can do this month, as it will set the risk tone for at least today.
Support: 1.30933(yesterday’s low + 50 DMA)
Yesterday’s guess was a good one, as the EU consolidated within a 50 pips range. I really cannot imagine it going down all the way till 1.30933, maybe till 1.31100 and then staging a rebound.
Resistance: 1.32465
Look for a powerful 10, 20, 100 DMA to resist the EU’s move upwards, as well as the Fibonacci level to sit on top of it. 1.32800 is probably the best we can go if we get a good result after the ZEW sentiment, but I’d reckon a guess that we will close right below at 1.32300-1.32500. Hopefully our dear Draghi will talk up this pair, but we all know that the EZ is all talks and nothing else.
USDJPY DAILY CHART
THEME: SELL AT 82.400
Confidence: 70%
Not much to talk about this UJ pair, as I’ve mentioned it earlier in the sentiments column. Summary: look for players to long whilst waiting for the BOJ statement, and short once BOJ does nothing, and anticipates the FOMC statement for bond buying program and more QE3 news.
Resistance: 82.700 (above Friday’s high)
Sounds more like a stoploss of 25 pips. Reasonable if you ask me.
Support: 81.830, 81.700 (10DMA)
Support comes in at 10DMA. See that area highlighted in pink? That’s the candles movement for last Friday, Monday and Tuesday. Let see if we can get a replay here. 25 pips for a 70 pips or more, a nice R/R.
GBPJPY DAILY CHART
THEME: Sell rallies
Confidence level: 70-80%
Same pair as my weekly analysis, to sell this pair. GJ is hold up, IMO, purely because traders are wary of what the BOJ say or do. The GU is dropping like dead butterflies on the other hand. This is a good pair look to sell this pair after the BOJ and escape the wrath of the FOMC statement later.
Support: 127.500 (20DMA), 126.850 (trendline)
This will be our targets for today, which is approximately about 100pips. Bolder players may wait a few days to see if it may break the bottom line, depending on the sentiment over the next few days.
Resistance: 1.29700 (Green Pivot Line)
A close above this line will probably change the outline for this pair, but I hardly think this is the case. Keep your stoplosses tight ahead of the ZEW data, but otherwise should be in a downward move.
END OF REPORT
TRADE ANALYSIS
FOR 13 MARCH 2012
FOREWORD AND DISCLAIMER
•Thanks all for subscribing! If you have downloaded from the blog, thank you as well!
•Like the same as any other forex sites/blogs, all views are my personal views and you understand that I will not bear any responsibility for any losses incurred from these views. As much as I’d like to be as accurate as possible to create a win-win situation (there is no benefit for me if you incur losses, most likely I’ll be losing too), there is no 100% in trading
•Do visit my site at trader-tan.blogspot.com for latest analysis
•There is only me, myself and I on this blog, so please do not expect ALL pairs to be analysed. I’ll die before you know it. If you have a pair you need an alternative view, please e-mail me [email protected] and let me know in advance.
•And please allow typo mistakes. I believe you can read your charts and know where I’ve been ridiculous. E-mail me please, and tell me to make the amendments! Greatly appreciated.
•Same goes if you have any suggestions. E-mail me. I’m a suggestion-guy.
•Any advertisements, donations, defamatory comments, are most welcome also.
•To subscribe daily analysis to your e-mail, drop me your e-mail at my mailbox. Or signup at the blogspot.
Thank you, and hope this will be helpful.
RECAP FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY
JPY
Fin Min: Yen still overvalued. Will Take Decisive Steps against Excessive Forex Volatility
EUR
EC Proposes Suspending Euro 495m Funds To Hungary
AUD
Macquarie Bank downgraded by Fitch to BBB
Home loans comes in at -1.2%, weaker than expected of 0.5%
NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR
(All Time in +8 GMT)
TIMECURRENCYNEWS
8.30AMAUD HOME LOANS M/M
8.30AMAUDNAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE
-JPYMONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
-JPYOVERNIGHT CALL RATE
4.15PMCHFPPI M/M
5.30PMGBPTRADE BALANCE
6.00PMEURGERMAN ZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT
6.00PMEURZEW ECONOMIC SENTIMENT
8.30PMEURPRESIDENT DRAGHI SPEAKS
8.30PMUSDCORE RETAIL SALES M/M
8.30PMUSDRETAIL SALES M/M
10.00PMUSDBUSINESS INVENTORIES M/M
2.15AMUSDFOMC STATEMENT
CURRENT SENTIMENT
•VERY VERY light data yesterday means that flows were pretty genuinely taking positions ahead of the FOMC statement at 2.15am and Bernanke’s speech later.
•Look for traders to stay short of JPY as they will hope for some form of intervention. However, all these will most likely go up in smoke as Fin Min is most likely going to exercise some verbal workout. (Long USDJPY)
•After that look for traders to dump their short JPY and and short USD instead as traders may try to actualize/anticipate the bond buying program that has haunted the USD on Friday (Short USDJPY)
•Not sure how much ZEW economic sentiment will affect the risk on or off, as well as Mr Draghi, but take note of it nevertheless.
EURUSD DAILY CHART
THEME: CHALLENGE THE TOPSIDE MILDLY
Confidence level: 50-60%
Depending on how the news work out today, the EU pair could witness a very big move today. But news aside, I would believe that after a day of knocking the 50DMA floor (which has capped the pair’s losses since 26 Jan) and failed, traders will be looking for a little risk on action today. The ZEW data had a read of surprisingly good 5.4%, and let’s see what it can do this month, as it will set the risk tone for at least today.
Support: 1.30933(yesterday’s low + 50 DMA)
Yesterday’s guess was a good one, as the EU consolidated within a 50 pips range. I really cannot imagine it going down all the way till 1.30933, maybe till 1.31100 and then staging a rebound.
Resistance: 1.32465
Look for a powerful 10, 20, 100 DMA to resist the EU’s move upwards, as well as the Fibonacci level to sit on top of it. 1.32800 is probably the best we can go if we get a good result after the ZEW sentiment, but I’d reckon a guess that we will close right below at 1.32300-1.32500. Hopefully our dear Draghi will talk up this pair, but we all know that the EZ is all talks and nothing else.
USDJPY DAILY CHART
THEME: SELL AT 82.400
Confidence: 70%
Not much to talk about this UJ pair, as I’ve mentioned it earlier in the sentiments column. Summary: look for players to long whilst waiting for the BOJ statement, and short once BOJ does nothing, and anticipates the FOMC statement for bond buying program and more QE3 news.
Resistance: 82.700 (above Friday’s high)
Sounds more like a stoploss of 25 pips. Reasonable if you ask me.
Support: 81.830, 81.700 (10DMA)
Support comes in at 10DMA. See that area highlighted in pink? That’s the candles movement for last Friday, Monday and Tuesday. Let see if we can get a replay here. 25 pips for a 70 pips or more, a nice R/R.
GBPJPY DAILY CHART
THEME: Sell rallies
Confidence level: 70-80%
Same pair as my weekly analysis, to sell this pair. GJ is hold up, IMO, purely because traders are wary of what the BOJ say or do. The GU is dropping like dead butterflies on the other hand. This is a good pair look to sell this pair after the BOJ and escape the wrath of the FOMC statement later.
Support: 127.500 (20DMA), 126.850 (trendline)
This will be our targets for today, which is approximately about 100pips. Bolder players may wait a few days to see if it may break the bottom line, depending on the sentiment over the next few days.
Resistance: 1.29700 (Green Pivot Line)
A close above this line will probably change the outline for this pair, but I hardly think this is the case. Keep your stoplosses tight ahead of the ZEW data, but otherwise should be in a downward move.
END OF REPORT
DAILY TRADE RECOMMENDATION
http://trader-tan.blogspot.com/2012/...ered-long.html
long eur 1.31600 SL TP 90 pips
http://trader-tan.blogspot.com/2012/...ered-long.html
long eur 1.31600 SL TP 90 pips
TRADER-TAN.BLOGSPOT.COM
TRADE ANALYSIS
FOR 14 MARCH 2012
FOREWORD AND DISCLAIMER
•Thanks all for subscribing! If you have downloaded from the blog, thank you as well!
•Like the same as any other forex sites/blogs, all views are my personal views and you understand that I will not bear any responsibility for any losses incurred from these views. As much as I’d like to be as accurate as possible to create a win-win situation (there is no benefit for me if you incur losses, most likely I’ll be losing too), there is no 100% in trading
•Do visit my site at trader-tan.blogspot.com for latest analysis
•There is only me, myself and I on this blog, so please do not expect ALL pairs to be analysed. I’ll die before you know it. If you have a pair you need an alternative view, please e-mail me [email protected] and let me know in advance.
•And please allow typo mistakes. I believe you can read your charts and know where I’ve been ridiculous. E-mail me please, and tell me to make the amendments! Greatly appreciated.
•Same goes if you have any suggestions. E-mail me. I’m a suggestion-guy.
•Any advertisements, donations, defamatory comments, are most welcome also.
•To subscribe daily analysis to your e-mail, drop me your e-mail at my mailbox. Or signup at the blogspot.
Thank you, and hope this will be helpful.
RECAP FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY
JPY
BOJ holds rate steady.
FinMin Azumi announced that Japan would buy Yuan65 billion in Chinese debt
Shirakawa’s suggests more easing coming down the pike.
EUR
130b endorsed for Greece’s Bailout Plan
Zew Consumer Sentiment comes in at 22.3, much stronger than forecast of 10.6. However current conditions slipped to 37.6 from 40.3.
Draghi
•Overall We See Continued Signs Of Stabilisation Of Euro Zone Economy
•Risk of inflation is not materialising at the present time, output gap is wide in euro zone
U.S.
Core retail sales m/m comes in at 0.9%, only a mark better than expected.
Reail sales m/m at expected 1.1%, Gold down. USD up.
4 of 19 banks fail stress test
FOMC cites notable improvement
NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR
(All Time in +8 GMT)
TIMECURRENCYNEWS
7.30AMAUDWESTPAC CONSUMER SENTIMENT
7.50AMJPYBSI MANUFACTURING INDEX
1.00PMJPYBOJ MONTHLY REPORT
5.30PMGBPCLAIMANT COUNT CHANGE
5.30PMGBPUNEMPLOYMENT RATE
6.00PMCHFZEW ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS
6.00PMEURCPI Y/Y
6.00PMEURCORE CPI Y/Y
6.00PMEURINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M
8.30PMCADCAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
8.30PMUSDCURRENT ACCOUNT
8.30PMUSDIMPORT PRICES M/M
10.00PMUSDFED BERNANKE SPEAKS
10.30PMUSDCRUDE OIL INVENTORIES
CURRENT SENTIMENT
•Well I did anticipate wrongly yesterday. So I think its better not to do so of the same thing.
•Very bullish USD, as talked up by reports as well as fantastic data that keeps coming forth from U.S.
•EUR, GBP, AUD keeps up their triple-threat whipsawing game in terms of correlations.
•IMHO no mid to long term trend (risk on or off) is formed as of the moment, unless we see a very clear breakout. Its all buy the dips in USD/JPY.
•Heavyweight news today would be UK claims data, as well as Mr Bernanke speaking at the end of the day.
•Trade each pair with special care. Market is wild.
EURUSD DAILY CHART
THEME: BUY DIPS AT 1.30300
Confidence level: 60%
Not much to come from the EZ in terms of data that comes from the calendar. Pair has closed just below the 50DMA and looks set for more downward action. However, looking at the candlesticks that has formed the trendline (those highlighted yellow), these have very long tails, which means that traders must have bought the dips there with great interest. I’ll be hoping for the same, and with the green support line there, hope today will be a luck-changing day for me
Stoploss: 1.29950
Based solely on the round figure 1.30. Based on the wild market, I’d prefer to keep my stoplosses tight hoping to catch the correct trend and ride with it. Any lower from there looks to invalidate my support line.
Take Profit: 1.31600 (in green)
Like I said, keep stoplosses tight and go for the big fish. Wild horses need a wild trainer. The chart will explain why the TP is there.
AUDUSD DAILY CHART
THEME: BUY AT CURRENT PRICE 1.05150
Confidence: 50%
Price is currently supported by yesterday’s opening. Many trader talks have also taken the price level of 1.05 seriously, and I see this level does sound like a tough nut to crack.
Take Profit: 1.05900
This price is pretty pivotal here. Though my sentiment is that this pair will basketball a little today, the fundaments aren’t good enough to actually take it over 1.06, which will change the outlook altogether.
Support: 1.04 – 1.03750 (200, 100 DMA)
That’s where the credible support comes in, just in case it does dip that badly. My stoploss is at 1.04600, below Monday’s low, which will invalidate my cause, and that there is no further support until the 200 and 100 DMA.
GBPJPY DAILY CHART
THEME: Buy at Current Price
Confidence level: 40%
Yesterday’s guess was a total failure again. I did what a trader should not have done guess what the market is going to give us. Going back to basics, the pair has broken out of a double bottom, broken out to the highs yesterday (luckily I cut early) and has made topside progress today. Will look for unlimited upside possibilities.
Support: Unclear.
This is a very unclear part here. I’ll look for UK claims data today and revise the price action now and then. 150 pips is the maximum I wish to risk here.
Resistance: 130.800(Pink Line)
A pivot that has capped this pair since May 2011. This will prove to be an important pivot – if we break this one, all hell breaks loose! Look to take half profit at 1.30800, and move the other half to BE point.
END OF REPORT
TRADE ANALYSIS
FOR 14 MARCH 2012
FOREWORD AND DISCLAIMER
•Thanks all for subscribing! If you have downloaded from the blog, thank you as well!
•Like the same as any other forex sites/blogs, all views are my personal views and you understand that I will not bear any responsibility for any losses incurred from these views. As much as I’d like to be as accurate as possible to create a win-win situation (there is no benefit for me if you incur losses, most likely I’ll be losing too), there is no 100% in trading
•Do visit my site at trader-tan.blogspot.com for latest analysis
•There is only me, myself and I on this blog, so please do not expect ALL pairs to be analysed. I’ll die before you know it. If you have a pair you need an alternative view, please e-mail me [email protected] and let me know in advance.
•And please allow typo mistakes. I believe you can read your charts and know where I’ve been ridiculous. E-mail me please, and tell me to make the amendments! Greatly appreciated.
•Same goes if you have any suggestions. E-mail me. I’m a suggestion-guy.
•Any advertisements, donations, defamatory comments, are most welcome also.
•To subscribe daily analysis to your e-mail, drop me your e-mail at my mailbox. Or signup at the blogspot.
Thank you, and hope this will be helpful.
RECAP FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY
JPY
BOJ holds rate steady.
FinMin Azumi announced that Japan would buy Yuan65 billion in Chinese debt
Shirakawa’s suggests more easing coming down the pike.
EUR
130b endorsed for Greece’s Bailout Plan
Zew Consumer Sentiment comes in at 22.3, much stronger than forecast of 10.6. However current conditions slipped to 37.6 from 40.3.
Draghi
•Overall We See Continued Signs Of Stabilisation Of Euro Zone Economy
•Risk of inflation is not materialising at the present time, output gap is wide in euro zone
U.S.
Core retail sales m/m comes in at 0.9%, only a mark better than expected.
Reail sales m/m at expected 1.1%, Gold down. USD up.
4 of 19 banks fail stress test
FOMC cites notable improvement
NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR
(All Time in +8 GMT)
TIMECURRENCYNEWS
7.30AMAUDWESTPAC CONSUMER SENTIMENT
7.50AMJPYBSI MANUFACTURING INDEX
1.00PMJPYBOJ MONTHLY REPORT
5.30PMGBPCLAIMANT COUNT CHANGE
5.30PMGBPUNEMPLOYMENT RATE
6.00PMCHFZEW ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS
6.00PMEURCPI Y/Y
6.00PMEURCORE CPI Y/Y
6.00PMEURINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M
8.30PMCADCAPACITY UTILIZATION RATE
8.30PMUSDCURRENT ACCOUNT
8.30PMUSDIMPORT PRICES M/M
10.00PMUSDFED BERNANKE SPEAKS
10.30PMUSDCRUDE OIL INVENTORIES
CURRENT SENTIMENT
•Well I did anticipate wrongly yesterday. So I think its better not to do so of the same thing.
•Very bullish USD, as talked up by reports as well as fantastic data that keeps coming forth from U.S.
•EUR, GBP, AUD keeps up their triple-threat whipsawing game in terms of correlations.
•IMHO no mid to long term trend (risk on or off) is formed as of the moment, unless we see a very clear breakout. Its all buy the dips in USD/JPY.
•Heavyweight news today would be UK claims data, as well as Mr Bernanke speaking at the end of the day.
•Trade each pair with special care. Market is wild.
EURUSD DAILY CHART
THEME: BUY DIPS AT 1.30300
Confidence level: 60%
Not much to come from the EZ in terms of data that comes from the calendar. Pair has closed just below the 50DMA and looks set for more downward action. However, looking at the candlesticks that has formed the trendline (those highlighted yellow), these have very long tails, which means that traders must have bought the dips there with great interest. I’ll be hoping for the same, and with the green support line there, hope today will be a luck-changing day for me
Stoploss: 1.29950
Based solely on the round figure 1.30. Based on the wild market, I’d prefer to keep my stoplosses tight hoping to catch the correct trend and ride with it. Any lower from there looks to invalidate my support line.
Take Profit: 1.31600 (in green)
Like I said, keep stoplosses tight and go for the big fish. Wild horses need a wild trainer. The chart will explain why the TP is there.
AUDUSD DAILY CHART
THEME: BUY AT CURRENT PRICE 1.05150
Confidence: 50%
Price is currently supported by yesterday’s opening. Many trader talks have also taken the price level of 1.05 seriously, and I see this level does sound like a tough nut to crack.
Take Profit: 1.05900
This price is pretty pivotal here. Though my sentiment is that this pair will basketball a little today, the fundaments aren’t good enough to actually take it over 1.06, which will change the outlook altogether.
Support: 1.04 – 1.03750 (200, 100 DMA)
That’s where the credible support comes in, just in case it does dip that badly. My stoploss is at 1.04600, below Monday’s low, which will invalidate my cause, and that there is no further support until the 200 and 100 DMA.
GBPJPY DAILY CHART
THEME: Buy at Current Price
Confidence level: 40%
Yesterday’s guess was a total failure again. I did what a trader should not have done guess what the market is going to give us. Going back to basics, the pair has broken out of a double bottom, broken out to the highs yesterday (luckily I cut early) and has made topside progress today. Will look for unlimited upside possibilities.
Support: Unclear.
This is a very unclear part here. I’ll look for UK claims data today and revise the price action now and then. 150 pips is the maximum I wish to risk here.
Resistance: 130.800(Pink Line)
A pivot that has capped this pair since May 2011. This will prove to be an important pivot – if we break this one, all hell breaks loose! Look to take half profit at 1.30800, and move the other half to BE point.
END OF REPORT
TRADER-TAN.BLOGSPOT.COM
TRADE ANALYSIS
FOR 19 MARCH 2012
FOREWORD AND DISCLAIMER
•Thanks all for subscribing! If you have downloaded from the blog, thank you as well!
•Like the same as any other forex sites/blogs, all views are my personal views and you understand that I will not bear any responsibility for any losses incurred from these views. As much as I’d like to be as accurate as possible to create a win-win situation (there is no benefit for me if you incur losses, most likely I’ll be losing too), there is no 100% in trading
•Do visit my site at trader-tan.blogspot.com for latest analysis
•There is only me, myself and I on this blog, so please do not expect ALL pairs to be analysed. I’ll die before you know it. If you have a pair you need an alternative view, please e-mail me [email protected] and let me know in advance.
•And please allow typo mistakes. I believe you can read your charts and know where I’ve been ridiculous. E-mail me please, and tell me to make the amendments! Greatly appreciated.
•Same goes if you have any suggestions. E-mail me. I’m a suggestion-guy.
•Any advertisements, donations, defamatory comments, are most welcome also.
•To subscribe daily analysis to your e-mail, drop me your e-mail at my mailbox. Or signup at the blogspot.
Thank you, and hope this will be helpful.
RECAP FOR FRIDAY
General Positions
JPY shorts -42K vs -19K
GBP shorts -42K vs -37K
CHF shorts -15K vs -19K
CAD longs 26.7K vs 26.0K
AUD longs +67K vs +62K
NZD longs +13K vs +17K
Open interest surged across the board
Gold to +151K from +163K
Courtesy Www.Forexlive.com
USD
Core CPI at 0.1%, lower than expect of 0.2%
Consumer Sentiment lower at 74.3. Expected at 75.8
10 year bond yield rises
Dollar index was lower on Friday and is about a half percent lower year-to-date. But for the month of March, the dollar index has gained 1.3 percent and the dollar is 1.1 percent higher against the euro. (CNBC)
EUR
Liquidity given to Greece banks. “It is expected that this will immediately lead to an extra 25 billion euros of liquidity being available to lenders in Greece.”
German borrowing expected to rise this year.
EUR shorts positions cut from 99K from 116K, least since the first week of December: CFTC
STOCKS
Even though bonds were doing badly, stocks were at best since December. Both the Dow and S&P 500 rose 2.4 percent. S&P 500 ended the week at 1404, above the psychologically important 1400. (CNBC)
NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR
(All Time in +8 GMT)
TIMECURRENCYNEWS
5.00AMNZDWESTPAC CONSUMER SENTIMENTS
8.01AMGBPRIGHTMOVE HPI M/M
9.00AMAUDRBA GOV STEVEN SPEAKS
5.00PMEUR CURRENT ACCOUNT
8.30PMCADWHOLESALE SALE M/M
CURRENT SENTIMENT
•Frantic USD selling off after failing to send risks pairs lower. Consumer sentiment could also have played a part there.
•FED ended Tuesday rate meeting without any new signs that it would carry out bond-buy program (to us traders it just means another QE3)
•“Investor behavior is going to be the key to next week,” said John Briggs, senior Treasury strategist at RBS. (CNBC)
•Light data on Monday means to me another mixed sentiment day.
EURUSD
THEME: CONSOLIDATION WITH UPDSIDE BIAS.
A very bullish chart here, with the price bouncing off the 50% Fibonacci after testing it for the third time. Price was capped below 50DMA for Wednesday and Thurs, finally clearing it on Friday. RSI also signals that the price is bouncing off to test the topside. Personally I’d reckon buying the dips if it happens, or sell the rally if you notice that it is running out of steam intraday.
Support Levels
1.31430 38.2 Fibonacci level
1.31100 to 1.30800 Round Number, 50DMA, Thursday’s Close.
Resistance Levels
1.32000 to 1.32300 Round number, 20DMA, 100DMA.
1.30000 Round number, Feb 9 and Mar 8 highs (pivot level)
USDJPY
THEME: CONSOLIDATION, IF NOT CRASH
On a fundamental perspective, there seems to be nothing much that should be moving this pair on Monday. However technically, you may wish to go for a crash of this pair on Monday or Tuesday. Pair is currently on the overbought region. Reason to trigger the shorts would include a lower low and a lower high, and a break lower on the RSI trend. Depending on what we have on Monday and Tuesday, we might even have a flag formation towards the upside. FYI, the pink line is the Fibonacci from the highs in May 2010 to the lows in Nov 2011.
Support Levels
83.000 38.2 Fibonacci level, round number, Tuesday’s high
82.000 Round number, trendline support, Tuesday’s opening price.
Resistance Levels
Cannot be sure, if an uptrend is in place. Watch out yourself.
83.750 Feb 2011 Pivot
84.000 Round number, December 2010 Pivot
GBPUSD
THEME: CONSOLIDATION WITH DOWNSIDE BIAS
Pair has been capped most noticeably at the 200 DMA since Sept 2011, except for the one time earlier this month where it has failed to stay above, and thus the 400 pips crash. Long term wise I’d still like to think that there is more upside potential, but no, the break is not going to be tomorrow. At least I’d think that it would close below 200DMA, again.
Support
1.57850 - 1.57000 10, 20 ,50 ,100 DMA
Resistance
1.58600 200 DMA, Friday’s high
1.58850 pivot zone since 8th Feb
END OF REPORT
TRADE ANALYSIS
FOR 19 MARCH 2012
FOREWORD AND DISCLAIMER
•Thanks all for subscribing! If you have downloaded from the blog, thank you as well!
•Like the same as any other forex sites/blogs, all views are my personal views and you understand that I will not bear any responsibility for any losses incurred from these views. As much as I’d like to be as accurate as possible to create a win-win situation (there is no benefit for me if you incur losses, most likely I’ll be losing too), there is no 100% in trading
•Do visit my site at trader-tan.blogspot.com for latest analysis
•There is only me, myself and I on this blog, so please do not expect ALL pairs to be analysed. I’ll die before you know it. If you have a pair you need an alternative view, please e-mail me [email protected] and let me know in advance.
•And please allow typo mistakes. I believe you can read your charts and know where I’ve been ridiculous. E-mail me please, and tell me to make the amendments! Greatly appreciated.
•Same goes if you have any suggestions. E-mail me. I’m a suggestion-guy.
•Any advertisements, donations, defamatory comments, are most welcome also.
•To subscribe daily analysis to your e-mail, drop me your e-mail at my mailbox. Or signup at the blogspot.
Thank you, and hope this will be helpful.
RECAP FOR FRIDAY
General Positions
JPY shorts -42K vs -19K
GBP shorts -42K vs -37K
CHF shorts -15K vs -19K
CAD longs 26.7K vs 26.0K
AUD longs +67K vs +62K
NZD longs +13K vs +17K
Open interest surged across the board
Gold to +151K from +163K
Courtesy Www.Forexlive.com
USD
Core CPI at 0.1%, lower than expect of 0.2%
Consumer Sentiment lower at 74.3. Expected at 75.8
10 year bond yield rises
Dollar index was lower on Friday and is about a half percent lower year-to-date. But for the month of March, the dollar index has gained 1.3 percent and the dollar is 1.1 percent higher against the euro. (CNBC)
EUR
Liquidity given to Greece banks. “It is expected that this will immediately lead to an extra 25 billion euros of liquidity being available to lenders in Greece.”
German borrowing expected to rise this year.
EUR shorts positions cut from 99K from 116K, least since the first week of December: CFTC
STOCKS
Even though bonds were doing badly, stocks were at best since December. Both the Dow and S&P 500 rose 2.4 percent. S&P 500 ended the week at 1404, above the psychologically important 1400. (CNBC)
NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR
(All Time in +8 GMT)
TIMECURRENCYNEWS
5.00AMNZDWESTPAC CONSUMER SENTIMENTS
8.01AMGBPRIGHTMOVE HPI M/M
9.00AMAUDRBA GOV STEVEN SPEAKS
5.00PMEUR CURRENT ACCOUNT
8.30PMCADWHOLESALE SALE M/M
CURRENT SENTIMENT
•Frantic USD selling off after failing to send risks pairs lower. Consumer sentiment could also have played a part there.
•FED ended Tuesday rate meeting without any new signs that it would carry out bond-buy program (to us traders it just means another QE3)
•“Investor behavior is going to be the key to next week,” said John Briggs, senior Treasury strategist at RBS. (CNBC)
•Light data on Monday means to me another mixed sentiment day.
EURUSD
THEME: CONSOLIDATION WITH UPDSIDE BIAS.
A very bullish chart here, with the price bouncing off the 50% Fibonacci after testing it for the third time. Price was capped below 50DMA for Wednesday and Thurs, finally clearing it on Friday. RSI also signals that the price is bouncing off to test the topside. Personally I’d reckon buying the dips if it happens, or sell the rally if you notice that it is running out of steam intraday.
Support Levels
1.31430 38.2 Fibonacci level
1.31100 to 1.30800 Round Number, 50DMA, Thursday’s Close.
Resistance Levels
1.32000 to 1.32300 Round number, 20DMA, 100DMA.
1.30000 Round number, Feb 9 and Mar 8 highs (pivot level)
USDJPY
THEME: CONSOLIDATION, IF NOT CRASH
On a fundamental perspective, there seems to be nothing much that should be moving this pair on Monday. However technically, you may wish to go for a crash of this pair on Monday or Tuesday. Pair is currently on the overbought region. Reason to trigger the shorts would include a lower low and a lower high, and a break lower on the RSI trend. Depending on what we have on Monday and Tuesday, we might even have a flag formation towards the upside. FYI, the pink line is the Fibonacci from the highs in May 2010 to the lows in Nov 2011.
Support Levels
83.000 38.2 Fibonacci level, round number, Tuesday’s high
82.000 Round number, trendline support, Tuesday’s opening price.
Resistance Levels
Cannot be sure, if an uptrend is in place. Watch out yourself.
83.750 Feb 2011 Pivot
84.000 Round number, December 2010 Pivot
GBPUSD
THEME: CONSOLIDATION WITH DOWNSIDE BIAS
Pair has been capped most noticeably at the 200 DMA since Sept 2011, except for the one time earlier this month where it has failed to stay above, and thus the 400 pips crash. Long term wise I’d still like to think that there is more upside potential, but no, the break is not going to be tomorrow. At least I’d think that it would close below 200DMA, again.
Support
1.57850 - 1.57000 10, 20 ,50 ,100 DMA
Resistance
1.58600 200 DMA, Friday’s high
1.58850 pivot zone since 8th Feb
END OF REPORT
- #8
- Last Post: Mar 19, 2012 2:32pm Mar 19, 2012 2:32pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2012 | 47 Posts
TRADER-TAN.BLOGSPOT.COM
TRADE ANALYSIS
FOR 20 MARCH 2012
FOREWORD AND DISCLAIMER
•Thanks all for subscribing! If you have downloaded from the blog, thank you as well!
•Like the same as any other forex sites/blogs, all views are my personal views and you understand that I will not bear any responsibility for any losses incurred from these views. As much as I’d like to be as accurate as possible to create a win-win situation (there is no benefit for me if you incur losses, most likely I’ll be losing too), there is no 100% in trading
•Do visit my site at trader-tan.blogspot.com for latest analysis
•There is only me, myself and I on this blog, so please do not expect ALL pairs to be analysed. I’ll die before you know it. If you have a pair you need an alternative view, please e-mail me [email protected] and let me know in advance.
•And please allow typo mistakes. I believe you can read your charts and know where I’ve been ridiculous. E-mail me please, and tell me to make the amendments! Greatly appreciated.
•Same goes if you have any suggestions. E-mail me. I’m a suggestion-guy.
•Any advertisements, donations, defamatory comments, are most welcome also.
•To subscribe daily analysis to your e-mail, drop me your e-mail at my mailbox. Or signup at the blogspot.
Thank you, and hope this will be helpful.
RECAP FOR FRIDAY
CNY
Yuan mid point set at 6.3082
GBP
UK house asking prices rising up sharply in the first quarter
NZD
Consumer Confidence improves slightly.
NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR
(All Time in +8 GMT)
TIMECURRENCYNEWS
-JPYBANK HOLIDAY
8.30AMAUDMONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES
11.05AMAUDRBA ASSIST GOV EDEY SPEAKS
3.00PMEURGERMAN PPI M/M
4.15PMCHFINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Q/Q
5.30PMGBPCPI Y/Y
5.30PMGBPRPI Y/Y
7.00PMGBPCBI INDUSTRIAL ORDER EXPECTATIONS
8.30PMUSDBUILDING PERMITS
8.30PMUSDHOUSING STARTS
CURRENT SENTIMENT
•These types of risk rallies are the scariest – pairs zooming through the roof without a reason.
•Especially true for GBP which stayed exceptionally strong throughout the European and US session.
•I think we’re essentially seeing a correction for USD, which is good for building up healthy USD longs. The steeper you climb, the faster you fall.
•Tomorrow will be interesting – our Sushi friends will be taking a break to pay respect to the deceased. I’ll expect a short squeeze/stop loss hunting at the top, before some correction downwards.
GBPUSD
THEME: CORRECTION AFTER BREAKING THE RESPECTED 200 DMA
Pair breaks 200DMA, again, but finally. CPI data will be released at 5.30pm and I do expect that since this pair has been pretty strong yesterday, it will also fall rather bad tomorrow. However, like mentioned above, I do think that it will not go down without a short squeeze at the top. And since the top levels will prove to be a tough nut to crack, it will not be broken so easily, especially before the CPI data. RSI looks for a little correction first before running to the top.
Support Levels
1.58600 200 DMA
Resistance Levels
1.59000 to 1.59300 50% Fibonacci, 8th Feb 2012’s highs as well as a support turned resistance in October to November 2012.
1.30000 Round number, Feb 9 and Mar 8 highs (pivot level)
Recommendation
Sell the short squeeze tomorrow morning, which I expect will come in at 1.59300, 15 pips higher than today’s high.
Stoploss at 40 pips, somewhere near the monthly high.
Take profit will be at 1.58600, 200DMA.
If 1.59300 does not come in during Asian session, look to void the whole order. And make sure to exit the trade 15-30 minutes before the CPI data, if it has yet to touch the stoploss or the take profit.
AUDUSD
THEME: DOWNSIDE, DOWNSIDE AND MORE DOWNSIDE
If you can remember my previous posts you’d have realized how much I’ve always say that the fundamentals for this pair aren’t great at all. Now, even the technicals have come into play here. I do personally believe that the EUR and GBP rally as well as the USD sell off has helped this pair in its upside run. With the GBP rally likely stalling tomorrow, I’d expect this pair to face a even greater sell off. Reasons for sell off include:
•Capped by 20 and 50 DMA.
•Support-turned-resistance trendline
•Poor fundamentals
•RSI trendline
The candle tomorrow will most likely decide its whereabouts for the next few days/weeks.
Support Levels
1.04460 to 1.03600 where 14 March’s closing price comes in, 0.382 Fibonacci, 200 and 100 DMA. Looks like it may just be a loooong fall.
Resistance Levels
1.05900 to 1.06400 yesterday’s highs, trendline cap, 20 DMA, 50DMA
Recommendation
Almost the same as the GBPUSD recommendation. Expect a short squeeze at near 1.06500 and where the trendline will cap it nicely.
Set stop loss around 1.07 where it gets a little dangerous, whilst take profit is up to the price action. I’d personally say it may reach 1.04 this week.
END OF REPORT
TRADE ANALYSIS
FOR 20 MARCH 2012
FOREWORD AND DISCLAIMER
•Thanks all for subscribing! If you have downloaded from the blog, thank you as well!
•Like the same as any other forex sites/blogs, all views are my personal views and you understand that I will not bear any responsibility for any losses incurred from these views. As much as I’d like to be as accurate as possible to create a win-win situation (there is no benefit for me if you incur losses, most likely I’ll be losing too), there is no 100% in trading
•Do visit my site at trader-tan.blogspot.com for latest analysis
•There is only me, myself and I on this blog, so please do not expect ALL pairs to be analysed. I’ll die before you know it. If you have a pair you need an alternative view, please e-mail me [email protected] and let me know in advance.
•And please allow typo mistakes. I believe you can read your charts and know where I’ve been ridiculous. E-mail me please, and tell me to make the amendments! Greatly appreciated.
•Same goes if you have any suggestions. E-mail me. I’m a suggestion-guy.
•Any advertisements, donations, defamatory comments, are most welcome also.
•To subscribe daily analysis to your e-mail, drop me your e-mail at my mailbox. Or signup at the blogspot.
Thank you, and hope this will be helpful.
RECAP FOR FRIDAY
CNY
Yuan mid point set at 6.3082
GBP
UK house asking prices rising up sharply in the first quarter
NZD
Consumer Confidence improves slightly.
NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR
(All Time in +8 GMT)
TIMECURRENCYNEWS
-JPYBANK HOLIDAY
8.30AMAUDMONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES
11.05AMAUDRBA ASSIST GOV EDEY SPEAKS
3.00PMEURGERMAN PPI M/M
4.15PMCHFINDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Q/Q
5.30PMGBPCPI Y/Y
5.30PMGBPRPI Y/Y
7.00PMGBPCBI INDUSTRIAL ORDER EXPECTATIONS
8.30PMUSDBUILDING PERMITS
8.30PMUSDHOUSING STARTS
CURRENT SENTIMENT
•These types of risk rallies are the scariest – pairs zooming through the roof without a reason.
•Especially true for GBP which stayed exceptionally strong throughout the European and US session.
•I think we’re essentially seeing a correction for USD, which is good for building up healthy USD longs. The steeper you climb, the faster you fall.
•Tomorrow will be interesting – our Sushi friends will be taking a break to pay respect to the deceased. I’ll expect a short squeeze/stop loss hunting at the top, before some correction downwards.
GBPUSD
THEME: CORRECTION AFTER BREAKING THE RESPECTED 200 DMA
Pair breaks 200DMA, again, but finally. CPI data will be released at 5.30pm and I do expect that since this pair has been pretty strong yesterday, it will also fall rather bad tomorrow. However, like mentioned above, I do think that it will not go down without a short squeeze at the top. And since the top levels will prove to be a tough nut to crack, it will not be broken so easily, especially before the CPI data. RSI looks for a little correction first before running to the top.
Support Levels
1.58600 200 DMA
Resistance Levels
1.59000 to 1.59300 50% Fibonacci, 8th Feb 2012’s highs as well as a support turned resistance in October to November 2012.
1.30000 Round number, Feb 9 and Mar 8 highs (pivot level)
Recommendation
Sell the short squeeze tomorrow morning, which I expect will come in at 1.59300, 15 pips higher than today’s high.
Stoploss at 40 pips, somewhere near the monthly high.
Take profit will be at 1.58600, 200DMA.
If 1.59300 does not come in during Asian session, look to void the whole order. And make sure to exit the trade 15-30 minutes before the CPI data, if it has yet to touch the stoploss or the take profit.
AUDUSD
THEME: DOWNSIDE, DOWNSIDE AND MORE DOWNSIDE
If you can remember my previous posts you’d have realized how much I’ve always say that the fundamentals for this pair aren’t great at all. Now, even the technicals have come into play here. I do personally believe that the EUR and GBP rally as well as the USD sell off has helped this pair in its upside run. With the GBP rally likely stalling tomorrow, I’d expect this pair to face a even greater sell off. Reasons for sell off include:
•Capped by 20 and 50 DMA.
•Support-turned-resistance trendline
•Poor fundamentals
•RSI trendline
The candle tomorrow will most likely decide its whereabouts for the next few days/weeks.
Support Levels
1.04460 to 1.03600 where 14 March’s closing price comes in, 0.382 Fibonacci, 200 and 100 DMA. Looks like it may just be a loooong fall.
Resistance Levels
1.05900 to 1.06400 yesterday’s highs, trendline cap, 20 DMA, 50DMA
Recommendation
Almost the same as the GBPUSD recommendation. Expect a short squeeze at near 1.06500 and where the trendline will cap it nicely.
Set stop loss around 1.07 where it gets a little dangerous, whilst take profit is up to the price action. I’d personally say it may reach 1.04 this week.
END OF REPORT