SVTNICKs FOREX BLOG

As long as there is no real major catalyst fundamentally, Im going to trade using the 144, 169 tunnel with an MA 12 line on a 30 min. chart to show me the direction of my trend. Im only making trades that continue to go with the -$ trend. I dont think I will have a good trade to move on until the end of June with the interest rate announcement. Or, the end of this week could lead to a good setup with the FOMC minutes released.

Personally, I see inflation getting out of control and see the the FED continue to put up rates, but how that changes the market sentiment towards the $, I do not know. For now though, the market is still $ - .

Are you trading short term, mid, or long term?

And can you post a chart with this tunnel set up so we can get an idea of what your proposing.

Dave

Attached are some graphs. Im going to wait until the other side of the tunnel has been breached before thinking about making a trade. For now, Im just watching.

Ok I see what your doing. Good system. But why limmit to the bear dollar. Why not both ways?

I think the news out this week hopefully will provide the catalyst to push currencies the "my" side of the tunnel. If there is a rally, i will wait until the end of the rally before contemplating a trade. I will not trade counter the the $ - sentiment. Not yet anyway.

I dont need the stress. lol Id rather set alerts looking at the currency market from one perspective. I find myself watching my screens 24 hours a day when I start looking to trade both ways. I actually prefer to trade just the news, but I think Ill strictly trade with just this system for a while to see what happens.

Dont get me wrong. If I see a rally that is the result of some suprising news, and could be one of those rallys that has legs all day long, Ill jump on it...but for now..Ill trade strictly from the charts.

Im currently eyeing AUD/USD for a play. Ill wait for the FOMC minutes to be released to see if the trend starts to bounce of my tunnel.

Getting close to my tunnel. Waiting for it to break further down past my tunnel.

remember that it can also bounce off the tunnel and not penetrate it
hehe

let me help with entry when approaching tunnel...if you don't mind


1 min chart make a 55 ema/120 ema tunnel and 8 ema and use it when price nears your tunnel. Same technique as you.

55/120 min ema represents the 1 min average over 1 and 2 hrs.

shhhhh this method is a secret did I say that out loud?


Dave

Im setting up trades against AUD, JPY, GBP VS USD. Hopefully I will be selling USD when the minutes come out at 2 pm. If the catalyst is not as expected and the $ does not get sold off, I will wait for the rally to end, and then sell the $.I expect in the minutes for the FED to be arguing over a pause for a wait and see approach. Personally, I think there could even be talk of eventually cutting rates. But thats just pure speculation on my part. Inflation is still out there. But i would not put it past the FEd to at least mention it.

Guys, part of my strategy is to only trade rallys. But rallys that are against the $. I use the charts to find currency pairs that are ripe for a rally if the right catalyst arrives. Meaning, that if a rally occurs, these curreny pairs will reward me with the most PIPS. Well, thats the theory anyway...

The FOMC minutes are not the catalyst I was looking for. I will watch this small rally as an opportunity to possibly get into some dollar negative positions. The current [price action is telling me that the FOREX markets were not surprised by the FOMC minutes. Which to me is good. I still think the market overall is dollar negative. I just dont know when the FED will finally give up on raising rates. Market still seems addicted to selling the $, so I will wait for this small rally to end before possibly jumping into some positions.

I wonder if the market is finally coming into line with my thinking...that the FED is far from done. I guess we will just have to watch and see. I hope the market comes in line with fundamentals..makes trading for me a bit easier. Trading dollar negative for me seems counter intuitive.

How will Europe react to todays events.

A little patience goes a long way. Im still waiting for Fridays news before making a decision. Im just not comfortable making a trade with so much uncertainty. Hopefully I will get the volatility Im looking for then.

I wasnt really watching the markets last night, so I missed to boat on the slow European rally last night.

I rode the dollar negative trend out this morning for the last hour with a trailing stop of 15 pips which just hit. I didnt have alot of time to watch the price movement this morning, so Im happy I did what I did. Between
GBP/USD EUR/USD JPY/USD I made a little over 200 pips. I didnt jump in until I was sure a trend started. Funny enough, I was stopped out at my tunnel on all 3 pairs.