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  • #6,621
  • Edited 2:06am Mar 16, 2012 1:58am | Edited 2:06am
We got PA rebounding from upper boundary of its H4 downsloping channel, TDI cross, bearish divergence and asian range breakout.
It's friday so I don't expect much of a move, maybe a retest of 1.305.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDm_H4_strategy name_20120316083355.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #6,622
  • Mar 16, 2012 4:15am Mar 16, 2012 4:15am
Quoting CodeMonster
Thanks for the reply, emmanuel7788

I shorted E/U @ 1.30886 on the 15M just after the two candles into the new day (CDT), after the cross of the TDI and after reading your post on early entry.

It looks like this trade will affect the 4H TF as well. I'm about 32.5 pips positive as I type this message. I was wondering how far down you are setting your first exit. As I look at my chart I see the S1 at about 1.3033. Which would put me at the magical 50 pips if I was to exit there and if the trade continues downward.

Thanks,

CM
Hi CM,

I think you should follow your trade plan exit strategy if that is already working well for you.
For my intraday trades, I will partial exit my positions at +1R and let the remaining positions run. Just manage the downside of the trades and let the marekt decide how far it will run to.

For EU today, I see that it will test the current low of this week and possibly make a new low. Just check what the average weekly range is. The recent 5 weeks average is about 280pips. But mindful that the area below 1.3020 is support zone. Unless there is strong buyers for USD, this may be difficult to break below.

Since this is intraday trade, I will close this and not hold over the weekend. The weekly swing is too wide and not the market type for H4 swing trades.

rgds
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,623
  • Mar 16, 2012 4:18am Mar 16, 2012 4:18am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi CM,

I think you should follow your trade plan exit strategy if that is already working well for you.
For my intraday trades, I will partial exit my positions at +1R and let the remaining positions run. Just manage the downside of the trades and let the marekt decide how far it will run to.

For EU today, I see that it will test the current low of this week and possibly make a new low. Just check what the average weekly range is. The recent 5 weeks average is about 280pips. But mindful that the area below 1.3020 is support zone. Unless...
hello emmanuel, did you use h4 timeframe for swing trading? or daily timeframe?
how much usually you put your SL? is it 200 pips? and tp goal?
  • #6,624
  • Mar 16, 2012 4:20am Mar 16, 2012 4:20am
Hi,

Anyone looking at NZDUSD?
and if you can see a good S3 H4 setup to take this trade despite the rising weekly channel.

See chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD week 11 PosT 16-3-2012 6-58-29 PM.png Size: 31 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,625
  • Mar 16, 2012 4:51am Mar 16, 2012 4:51am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,

Anyone looking at NZDUSD?
and if you can see a good S3 H4 setup to take this trade despite the rising weekly channel.

See chart.
Hello,
Looks good but perhaps no entry today ... ?
  • #6,626
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:22am Mar 16, 2012 5:22am
Quoting ljin
hello emmanuel, did you use h4 timeframe for swing trading? or daily timeframe?
how much usually you put your SL? is it 200 pips? and tp goal?

Hi ljin,

For short swing trades, I look for setups on H4 following the MTF analysis concept.
> D1 for determining the trend
> H4 for trade setups
> H1 for timing trade entry, in most cases, to get better price and smaller initial risk SL.

Exit strategy is always to determine the first exit i.e. your initial SL after you know thge trade setup
For initial SL, use the most recent swing high/low, nearest round number '00' or '50' price levels, or 2 times the ATR(10) on H4,
> reversal setups, I prefer to use the recent swing high/low
> but for continutaion type setup, I use the ATR(10) H4 method.
> but always keep eyes on the round numbers.

For TP, the analysis must must show me a TP potential with RR 1:1.5 minimum or else I dont take the trade.
> use fibo levels for TP planning
> I also use the weekly pivot S&R levels. Keep you eye on the weekly volatility because after a wide ranged previous week, the following week pivots are very far apart. So make sure your TP expcetation is withing reach.

S3 H4 method is good for short swing trading. As matter of fact, TMS system using TDI and APB is good for H4 and D trading.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,627
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:37am Mar 16, 2012 5:37am
ouch. what the hell with the e/u movement ? O_O
  • #6,628
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:40am Mar 16, 2012 5:40am
Quoting ljin
ouch. what the hell with the e/u movement ? O_O
News.
  • #6,629
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:56am Mar 16, 2012 5:56am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi ljin,

For short swing trades, I look for setups on H4 following the MTF analysis concept.
> D1 for determining the trend
> H4 for trade setups
> H1 for timing trade entry, in most cases, to get better price and smaller initial risk SL.

Exit strategy is always to determine the first exit i.e. your initial SL after you know thge trade setup
For initial SL, use the most recent swing high/low, nearest round number '00' or '50' price levels, or 2 times the ATR(10) on H4,
> reversal setups, I prefer to use the recent swing high/low
>...
you said that. use nearest round number for initial SL. is that mean put them on x.xx00 or x.xx50? i thought that usually that round number is for TP? and usually price move to that round number and reverse. or am i wrong?

and for atr(10) . if it shows that 0.0041 . is that mean the SL is 82 pips away from open?

yes. i want to try using s3 for swing trading.
  • #6,630
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:58am Mar 16, 2012 5:58am
Quoting ljin
ouch. what the hell with the e/u movement ? O_O
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...2-5170249b5a34

$EURUSD jumps after US inflation data
  • #6,631
  • Mar 16, 2012 6:04am Mar 16, 2012 6:04am
Quoting wrenski
News.

If news really had anything to do with the way the market moves, yesterday, the E/U would have tanked.....
  • #6,632
  • Mar 16, 2012 6:13am Mar 16, 2012 6:13am
Quoting 4xbillions
If news really had anything to do with the way the market moves, yesterday, the E/U would have tanked.....
It has to do with how traders react to the news....not the news it self.
  • #6,633
  • Mar 16, 2012 6:21am Mar 16, 2012 6:21am
Quoting wrenski
It has to do with how traders react to the news....not the news it self.
If that were the case, Explain why all of the positive USD news did not drive the EU down yesterday. Especially with an already short bias......
  • #6,634
  • Mar 16, 2012 6:22am Mar 16, 2012 6:22am
Quoting wrenski
It has to do with how traders react to the news....not the news it self.
some people believe that the price already has the news factor taken in.
what move the currency market?
who move the currency market?
... who has the interests?
.... buyers and sellers
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,635
  • Mar 16, 2012 6:28am Mar 16, 2012 6:28am
Quoting Liberum
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-n...2-5170249b5a34

$EURUSD jumps after US inflation data

OOUCH!!!!

lesson learn: must trust my day chart pattern and not too fixated on recency bias.

the day bullish oustide bar was telling signs, also pattern so AU, GU were telling something. But I took my trade early before NY close and TOK open. So I stood by my recency bias despite seeing how the previous day closed. Another good lesson learn.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,636
  • Mar 16, 2012 6:35am Mar 16, 2012 6:35am
Quoting emmanuel7788
OOUCH!!!!

lesson learn: must trust my day chart pattern and not too fixated on recency bias.

the day bullish oustide bar was telling signs, also pattern so AU, GU were telling something. But I took my trade early before NY close and TOK open. So I stood by my recency bias despite seing how the previous day closed. Another good lesson learn.
Thanks E I really enjoy your posts.

I hear what you say about the positive close yesterday but all today until the news the upper TL was being respected, so the day could have gone either way. Positive day yesterday = potential to go up and we are in downtrend below TL = potential to go down.

The inflation rate was presumably outside expectations for such a reaction?
  • #6,637
  • Mar 16, 2012 6:44am Mar 16, 2012 6:44am
Quoting Vantage

The inflation rate was presumably outside expectations for such a reaction?
Exactly!!
  • #6,638
  • Mar 16, 2012 7:11am Mar 16, 2012 7:11am
Quoting Vantage
Thanks E I really enjoy your posts.

I hear what you say about the positive close yesterday but all today until the news the upper TL was being respected, so the day could have gone either way. Positive day yesterday = potential to go up and we are in downtrend below TL = potential to go down.

The inflation rate was presumably outside expectations for such a reaction?

Thanks Vantage,
You are right. This one really difficult ... one of those 50-50 type of situations.
regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,639
  • Mar 16, 2012 7:46am Mar 16, 2012 7:46am
Hi ALL,

I got a few PMs asking me about trading intraday and swing trading.
There is this thread in FF which explains the pros and cons of day trading vs swing trading vs position trading.


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...swing+position

The first post will give you a good summary.

However, I believe that to trade for a living, you must treat trading as a business. You need to know the market type you want to trade and you must have your own system whcih suit your temperament as a trader and for that particular market type.

Enjoy the learning. The rewards can be great when you make it work for you.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,640
  • Mar 16, 2012 8:14am Mar 16, 2012 8:14am
Quoting 4xbillions
If that were the case, Explain why all of the positive USD news did not drive the EU down yesterday. Especially with an already short bias......

I can't explain it nor can I explain why the market moved substantially with today's news, but it did. Just be aware of up coming news by looking at the FF news section and pay a lot of attention to the red flagged news. The red flag news, as FF explains is, "High Impact Expected". That pretty much says it all.
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