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  • #6,601
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:16am Mar 15, 2012 8:16am
Quoting ljin
BUOB is not mean buying low? (if it mean we aim for long)?

No, ..today is still sell, and only to sell high.

I only mention BUOB which is an outside day bar when today high is above 1.3090, ...wait for day to close .
You need to see how today will close, and if BUOB then tomorrow prepare to trade the day chart with outside bar setup.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,602
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:19am Mar 15, 2012 8:19am
Quoting tp0440
I told you in the morning to aim for about 1,3090.

Min15 is not to be used for anything more that quick trades. H1 was long!

This is not to insult anybody, but a reminder: Anybody here still using the system and technicals, or you mostly assume?
hi tp, in a ranging market like this, it's nice to incorporate some fundamentals as well to aid in setting up a trade...whether we like it or not, fundamentals do greatly affect the markets...it's truly good if you can purely trade just on technicals and on the charts, x-man, emmanuel, ph62, have this great ability...but not all of us..hence, one must find ways to overcome what he lacks....
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,603
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:24am Mar 15, 2012 8:24am
Sure and I agree. But lately I find, that fundamentals are only distracting me. Or are manipulated or are already incorporated into the price.

Don't also forget, in fundamentals, expectations play a huge roll.

As my mentor said, the fundamentals are just a bump in the road. Once the trend is established, the fundamentals can divert the course for a while, but price will return to course sooner or later.

Just a thought...

EDIT: my TP was hit and I'm out. I wish you good pip hunting.

BR
  • #6,604
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:25am Mar 15, 2012 8:25am
Quoting ljin
dang. the price nearly hit my SL. my tp is 1.3000 , but i am in minus now.
i thought it is going to be bearish because of divergence too !but most probably it will rebounce.
yes ljin, it will turn around

patience truly is a virtue every trader must have, as emmanuel and vantage pointed out, even fundamentals, nothing so far have indicated that PA will shoot up, hopefully...
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,605
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:40am Mar 15, 2012 8:40am
Quoting tp0440
Sure and I agree. But lately I find, that fundamentals are only distracting me. Or are manipulated or are already incorporated into the price.

Don't also forget, in fundamentals, expectations play a huge roll.

As my mentor said, the fundamentals are just a bump in the road. Once the trend is established, the fundamentals can divert the course for a while, but price will return to course sooner or later.

Just a thought...

BR
well said BR...i've noticed that during ranging markets, one great tool to use are co-relations, like what we are having right now it seems that it's somehow related to the movements in 10-year US treasury yields...come to think of it, those big players i guess greatly consider these financial instruments to gauge and decide where to place their orders...
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,606
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:47am Mar 15, 2012 8:47am
Quoting Awin
On a ranging market like this emmanuel, isn't it BUOB aren't so reliable as indicators? In your experience as a trader, how much weight do you give on these price patterns as a signal?

i've put my stop well beyond 1.3090, even past the 23.6 FIB, which so far haven't been touched yet..
Hi Awin,

I use candlestick patterns on H4 and above as I find them to useful in interpeting market sentiments and also these support higher probability trade setups.
In tight range consolidation like EU today, going down to lower TF like M15 help to view wave patterns and look for breakouts on shorter term trades.
Candlestick patterns, chart patterns and wave analysis alone is not enough. It has to be use in combination with mutli-timeframe analysis and also the use of ceratin oscillators like TDI will improve trading.

Rgds
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,607
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:15am Mar 15, 2012 10:15am
reports of an agreement between the UK and US to release strategic oil stocks and after the IMF announced it has approved the Greek bailout.
  • #6,608
  • Edited 10:33am Mar 15, 2012 10:17am | Edited 10:33am
I have not seen a sell signal so far today on G/U or E/U,
I trade M30 , h1 and H4 with a close look at the daily
M5 and M15 are useful for more precise entry/exit, but for me trade set ups are mainly on h1 and h4.
Saying that I also have some additional filters, one of them is a "war zone" which is a simple indicator with two additional lines. It takes the close of the US session price and marks+/- 20 pips on either side of that US session close price. (my good friend has programmed it for me).
If M30/H1 candle closes below -20 pips I go short and if M30/H1 candle closes above I go long if that agrees with the overall TA and the trend on H1 and H4 tf. I also follow the direction of the market base line.
I do not like to enter any trades after London close. I like to read /study in the evening here in the UK.
It has been a slow day until the last hour.
One more thing, for confirmation I also use market correlation including the Forex correlation indicator. but I do not want to mess this good method by obscuring it with other indicators.
I have learned to look at the PA and the indicators are only to confirm and not to provide a lead in decision making especially regarding the trade entries.
Good trading to all as I have a great book to read, by Brett N. Steenbarger, highly recommended author for trading Psychology insights.
Happy trading to all,
2be
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #6,609
  • Mar 15, 2012 5:21pm Mar 15, 2012 5:21pm
Hi,

Today open sell position EP@ 1.3097. An early entry as planned.

Yesterday took a 'counter trend trade' ... seeing a bullish bounce off the support 1.3020 and strong H4 bullish candle closed above the daily pivot.

regards,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 15 Mar Trade LO 16-3-2012 4-15-41 AM.png Size: 50 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,610
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:54pm Mar 15, 2012 8:54pm
I don't have words to express my gratitude to X-man. Luckily I came across this thread. For the past one and half years, I was jumping from one system to another and lost so much money.

I never backtested any method and just was doing trading like gambling. Now I am back testing and practicing the trades strenously. Now I am in the right track. If I will be successful in the trading world that will be because of X-man only.

Even own blood relatives wont' teach their successful system to other persons.

I wish him every success in trading, health & wealth.

Thank you.
  • #6,611
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:30pm Mar 15, 2012 10:30pm
emmanuel7788,

Would you mind telling me where you set your S/L for your early entry?

CM
  • #6,612
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:58pm Mar 15, 2012 10:58pm
Quoting CodeMonster
emmanuel7788,

Would you mind telling me where you set your S/L for your early entry?

CM

initial SL 1.3125, above recent swing high.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,613
  • Mar 15, 2012 11:12pm Mar 15, 2012 11:12pm
Hi, traders
We all know that a good time to rest is December, because the market has less volatility, and I want to ask for more experienced traders, what about summer? Is it a good time trading? Will it be more false signal?
I know that some traders don't trade in summer
Thank you, for your answers.
  • #6,614
  • Mar 16, 2012 12:19am Mar 16, 2012 12:19am
Quoting emmanuel7788
a possible short term play.
  • #6,615
  • Mar 16, 2012 12:30am Mar 16, 2012 12:30am
Most Summer months is business as usual but in my experience the month of August is really slow. That is when big traders take their Summer vacation.
Trading can't be taught but it can be learned
  • #6,616
  • Mar 16, 2012 1:32am Mar 16, 2012 1:32am
Quoting IenDzi
Hi, traders
We all know that a good time to rest is December, because the market has less volatility, and I want to ask for more experienced traders, what about summer? Is it a good time trading? Will it be more false signal?
I know that some traders don't trade in summer
Thank you, for your answers.
I wouldnt know since i only started trading since last year august/sept 2011.
But my backtesting shows that the entire year is a good year and just the last 2 to 3 weeks of december PA loses steam.

X
X-man the legendary conqueror of markets
  • #6,617
  • Mar 16, 2012 1:32am Mar 16, 2012 1:32am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi,
Here is an update of my trade post#6496.
EURJPY - only managed partial exit +30pips and rest stopped out at BE.
AUDJPY - still running, and added position with profit after first partial exit. This is now a 'free trade' and need careful management to reach final TP eyeing 90.00 which near the high of March 2011.

Regards,

Just to update on this trade. Still holding with trailing stop at 87.23.
Price is now breaking 88.00 after long consolidation. Lets see if it will make it to 90.00.

rgds,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,618
  • Mar 16, 2012 1:34am Mar 16, 2012 1:34am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Just to update on this trade. Still holding with trailing stop at 87.23.
Price is now breaking 88.00 after long consolidation. Lets see if it will make it to 90.00.

rgds,
good job.

I just opened several positions. Longing USD.

many signals coming.
  • #6,619
  • Mar 16, 2012 1:45am Mar 16, 2012 1:45am
GBP is beating up EUR, so GBPUSD wont move for a while longer until the beating stops.

GBPUSD ...look for sell signal later.

strong USD for a Friday close.

Trade wtih caution!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,620
  • Mar 16, 2012 1:54am Mar 16, 2012 1:54am
Quoting emmanuel7788
initial SL 1.3125, above recent swing high.

Thanks for the reply, emmanuel7788

I shorted E/U @ 1.30886 on the 15M just after the two candles into the new day (CDT), after the cross of the TDI and after reading your post on early entry.

It looks like this trade will affect the 4H TF as well. I'm about 32.5 pips positive as I type this message. I was wondering how far down you are setting your first exit. As I look at my chart I see the S1 at about 1.3033. Which would put me at the magical 50 pips if I was to exit there and if the trade continues downward.

Thanks,

CM
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