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Trading For Those With a 9-5 Job

  • #1,521
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:12am Mar 5, 2012 6:12am
Quoting golferfx
Hey Olu & 9/5'rs.

A+ set up on silver here imho.

Risk is $3.00 +

Reward...could be huge.

I am short SLV puts for disclosure.

Just thinkin out loud.




golfer

Great post.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,522
  • Mar 6, 2012 4:06am Mar 6, 2012 4:06am
It appears the stock market is rolling over. Over the last few weeks we have been in a formation called an ending diagonal. This is kind of like a triangle tilting upwards and coming to a point. I have uploaded a 4hr chart of recent happenings in this market and we are as we speak( post?) testing the bottom of a consolidation range. A break of that line to the downside means we could visit 12694 on the futures. Nearest meaningful support and projection of the width of the consolidation channel.

As this market is over bought on all time-frames I believe the next major move is going to be to the downside...

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: us30h-4h-06032012-1156uk.JPG Size: 119 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,523
  • Mar 6, 2012 5:08am Mar 6, 2012 5:08am
Comments on the chart...

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DollarIndex-Daily-06032012-1305uk.JPG Size: 73 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,524
  • Mar 6, 2012 8:58am Mar 6, 2012 8:58am
Quoting Olu
It appears the stock market is rolling over. Over the last few weeks we have been in a formation called an ending diagonal. This is kind of like a triangle tilting upwards and coming to a point. I have uploaded a 4hr chart of recent happenings in this market and we are as we speak( post?) testing the bottom of a consolidation range. A break of that line to the downside means we could visit 12694 on the futures. Nearest meaningful support and projection of the width of the consolidation channel.

As this market is over bought on all time-frames...
I'm in there...
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,525
  • Mar 7, 2012 3:50am Mar 7, 2012 3:50am
The Yen is showing unwanted (BOJ speak) strength. The strength has pushes all the pairs down from their lofty highs.

I got the fall in the audjpy yesterday once it broke the 50sma line I indicated the day before yesterday.

The eurjpy chart uploaded is suggesting that there is more weakness to come. We see a small triangle on the chart. By the way another technician can draw the same to be a bear flag. My one joy is that triangle or bear flag they both suggest more weakness. The bear flat is the worst though because of the projection to the 104 area

If the dow resumes its fall we will certainly get to 104 on this one...

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,526
  • Mar 7, 2012 5:51am Mar 7, 2012 5:51am
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data was better than expected so some of the bearishness is coming out of the market.
The Building Permits data was worse than expected but it seems the markets are taking it in their stride. I believe the house builders stocks will be thrashed when the markets open though.


My nice eurjpy short scenario has been scuppered for the time being...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,527
  • Mar 9, 2012 7:44am Mar 9, 2012 7:44am
Olu,

Here is the chart we talked about.

Be nimble my friend.





golfer
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  • #1,528
  • Mar 10, 2012 5:31pm Mar 10, 2012 5:31pm
Good weekend 9/5'rs.

Let's keep an eye on the Cad futures. Price has broken a big trend line.

If we do break .9500 futures...then .7500 is the next level.

Usd/cad should seek 1.2700/1.3000.

Plan ahead.



golfer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD futures.png Size: 8 KB
  • #1,529
  • Mar 10, 2012 7:00pm Mar 10, 2012 7:00pm
Quote
Let's keep an eye on the Cad futures. Price has broken a big trend line.

If we do break .9500 futures...then .7500 is the next level.

Usd/cad should seek 1.2700/1.3000.

Plan ahead.

What is your time-frame for the Loonie?

I've got a couple of charts here that say I shouldn't worry too much about my bullishness on CAD, at least for the next week or two.
The first is USD/CAD 1 Day.
The 2nd is CAD/JPY 1 Day.
I cut them off cause my software makes big pictures )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_CAD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 45 KB
Attached Image
  • #1,530
  • Mar 11, 2012 2:44pm Mar 11, 2012 2:44pm
Quoting golferfx
Good weekend 9/5'rs.

Let's keep an eye on the Cad futures. Price has broken a big trend line.

If we do break .9500 futures...then .7500 is the next level.

Usd/cad should seek 1.2700/1.3000.

Plan ahead.

golfer
This long term idea/scenario resonates with me as I think long term the dollar is going to get stronger because of 'risk off' issues. Already the euro has started to make the move south.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,531
  • Mar 11, 2012 2:50pm Mar 11, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting rovar
What is your time-frame for the Loonie?

I've got a couple of charts here that say I shouldn't worry too much about my bullishness on CAD, at least for the next week or two.
The first is USD/CAD 1 Day.
The 2nd is CAD/JPY 1 Day.
I cut them off cause my software makes big pictures )
Thanks for visiting the thread. I also see that you very first post on forexfactory was on my thread. I feel honoured. You are welcome to post your long term trades here. We are looking for trades that do not need intra-day monitoring and also long term trades.

About the cad projection. It is really long term position trade. Golfer has posted a weekly futures chart and as you know a lot can happen in a week not to talk of many weeks.

Also cadjpy strength at the moment is more jpy weakness. True the cad can strengthen in the short term but we are saying that it eventually will succumb to dollar strength

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,532
  • Mar 12, 2012 6:02am Mar 12, 2012 6:02am
Comments on the chart. Have a week full of pip profits

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy-4h-12032012-1252uk.JPG Size: 109 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,533
  • Mar 12, 2012 6:04am Mar 12, 2012 6:04am
Quoting golferfx
Good weekend 9/5'rs.

Let's keep an eye on the Cad futures. Price has broken a big trend line.

If we do break .9500 futures...then .7500 is the next level.

Usd/cad should seek 1.2700/1.3000.

Plan ahead.



golfer
The cash usdcad may have started its march upwards. Abreak above 1.0050 will do it for me and get me long

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,534
  • Mar 12, 2012 6:25am Mar 12, 2012 6:25am
Some comments on charts.

Couple dollar strength with the CRB chart GolferFx recently posted and we have the makings of a big down move in silver. If gold behaved as predicted we should be at 2000 by now. Perhaps we will visit 1500 on that one...

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,535
  • Mar 13, 2012 5:34am Mar 13, 2012 5:34am
The strength seen in the euro yesterday was brief and we are the point of breakout to the upside for the dollar index and to the downside for the eurusd.

Important risk event tonight is the Fed speech. If they indicate no QE dollar index will proceed to the moon (exaggeration) if more QE then the dollar index will retreat.

Olu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DollarIndex-daily-13032012-1219uk.JPG Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-daily-13032012-1230uk.JPG Size: 52 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,536
  • Mar 14, 2012 6:49am Mar 14, 2012 6:49am
Find uploaded the 4hr chart of the cash silver. Price is teasing the breakdown line today. A break of this line portends a move lower to 26 area. The feds are quiet about QE3 so the dollar is strengthening and built in premiums to gold and silver are being taken out. A 'strong' stock market is also not helping...A break above 34.40 negates this scenario and spells 'back to the drawing board'

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,537
  • Mar 14, 2012 7:02am Mar 14, 2012 7:02am
Can you believe that in all that rally in the jpy pairs (Yen weakness) I only got 160 pips? With some pairs moving over 1000 pips in a few weeks? Why you ask? The answer is simple - strong preconceived ideas about the market. This leads to trading paralysis even when your system says buy. If your mind says it should be a sell then its all messed up. Made some money elsewhere but the real low hanging fruits were the yen pairs

The lesson here is follow your system. If it is a truly tested and reliable system it will get you in and out at the right time

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,538
  • Mar 14, 2012 9:40am Mar 14, 2012 9:40am
Quoting Olu
Find uploaded the 4hr chart of the cash silver. Price is teasing the breakdown line today. A break of this line portends a move lower to 26 area. The feds are quiet about QE3 so the dollar is strengthening and built in premiums to gold and silver are being taken out. A 'strong' stock market is also not helping...A break above 34.40 negates this scenario and spells 'back to the drawing board'

Olu
We have broken down below the line...

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xagusd-4h-14032012-1630uk.JPG Size: 65 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,539
  • Mar 15, 2012 5:50am Mar 15, 2012 5:50am
Find uploaded the hourly chart of the xaguasd. I dont normally trade this time frame because of work commitments but had a peek at lunchtime. Ideally price should not go above the retest highs to confirm this as a retest of the neckline. So a sell again as close as possible to the highs of today will be nice...

Olu
Attached Image
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,540
  • Mar 15, 2012 3:30pm Mar 15, 2012 3:30pm
Comments on the chart...

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xagusd-4h-15032012-2225uk.jpg Size: 117 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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