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  • #6,581
  • Mar 15, 2012 5:22am Mar 15, 2012 5:22am
Quoting Vantage
But then I couldn't care 2 hoots about missing a counter trend potential trade if I don't see sufficient reason for a 'signal' to have a sufficient confluence of events (SR level/divergence etc etc) to justify it as a trade.
Seen bearish divergence oin M15 so opened short.
Let's see how this plays out.
  • #6,582
  • Mar 15, 2012 5:37am Mar 15, 2012 5:37am
Quoting Olafff
I wanted to make a small analysis "emmanuel" style and I'm wondering if anyone agree with me or not I call it a "learning curve".

So EUR/USD looking at the different time frames.
Weekly - I see PA is heading to test lows from beginning of the year which is around 1.2620

Daily - pair broke down channel which was forming since january and for now is heading down

4H - is heading up, I think forming a small retracement

1H - asian session formed new low in pair is heading towards ema60 - currently balancing around daily pivot and weekly...

Hi Olaf,

I have similar view like yours. Higher probability to take any sell setup later.
At the moment, there is a fight between EUR-GBP and causing some lack of direction for EURUSD and GBPUSD.
EURUSD is nice in a downflow channel and there is week 10 Low to test. So long that price is trading below the weekly pivot, this will favour more selling.

Since it is Thursday and I assume this week's high has been established, there is more room down for an average week range of 280pips.
Let see how NY session will be like. As I hear today, stock market is bullish and obviously a lot more liquiidty is flowing there and forex is lagging behind.

Good Trading!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H4 15 Mar view pre NYO 15-3-2012 6-21-53 PM.png Size: 48 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,583
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:25am Mar 15, 2012 7:25am
Trying to make something of this ranging period currently.

Only thing I can see is a triple top and bearish divergence on the 15m.

Might sit today out....
Attached Image
  • #6,584
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:33am Mar 15, 2012 7:33am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi Olaf,

I have similar view like yours. Higher probability to take any sell setup later.
At the moment, there is a fight between EUR-GBP and causing some lack of direction for EURUSD and GBPUSD.
EURUSD is nice in a downflow channel and there is week 10 Low to test. So long that price is trading below the weekly pivot, this will favour more selling.

Since it is Thursday and I assume this week's high has been established, there is more room down for an average week range of 280pips.
Let see how NY session will be like. As I hear today,...
hello, how do you expand your view on that chart (to the right. i am using chart-shift but the gap is not that much. is there any setting to that chart-shift so it will display more?)
  • #6,585
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:37am Mar 15, 2012 7:37am
Quoting ljin
hello, how do you expand your view on that chart (to the right. i am using chart-shift but the gap is not that much. is there any setting to that chart-shift so it will display more?)
You can zoom in
  • #6,586
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:51am Mar 15, 2012 7:51am
Quoting Liberum
You can zoom in
well, the more i zoom in, the more the gap smaller.

eur/usd still undecided even after unemployment claim... still hold my short lol
  • #6,587
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:52am Mar 15, 2012 7:52am
Then you have to zoom out
  • #6,588
  • Mar 15, 2012 7:59am Mar 15, 2012 7:59am
a possible short term play.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD M15 15 Mar 15-3-2012 8-52-53 PM.png Size: 55 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,589
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:05am Mar 15, 2012 8:05am
Quoting ljin
hello, how do you expand your view on that chart (to the right. i am using chart-shift but the gap is not that much. is there any setting to that chart-shift so it will display more?)

see attached chart explanation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart shift change.png Size: 29 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,590
  • Mar 15, 2012 9:10am Mar 15, 2012 9:10am
all positive economic data coming from US... good for USD...shorting USD now will be a good idea ....EU can't even go to R1...

anybody else SHORT?
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,591
  • Mar 15, 2012 9:20am Mar 15, 2012 9:20am
Quoting Awin
all positive economic data coming from US... good for USD...shorting USD now will be a good idea ....EU can't even go to R1...

anybody else SHORT?
I've placed short order just below daily pivot. all this good data for US seems to not making any impact as yet.

is there any Greece decision to be made today? or is that caused by possible downgrading UK?
  • #6,592
  • Mar 15, 2012 9:22am Mar 15, 2012 9:22am
Quoting Awin
all positive economic data coming from US... good for USD...shorting USD now will be a good idea ....EU can't even go to R1...

anybody else SHORT?
mine short. but market still ranging. but you're right.
and also i feel like euro/usd will go for a large move soon to either of way.
  • #6,593
  • Mar 15, 2012 9:44am Mar 15, 2012 9:44am
Quoting olafff
i've placed short order just below daily pivot. All this good data for us seems to not making any impact as yet.

Is there any greece decision to be made today? Or is that caused by possible downgrading uk?
everything about greece right now has settled a bit, with that successful psi swap and cac they will enforce, the troika have built enough protection so far and they are a bit satisfied so far with greece, so anything coming out with right now from greece will not be affecting fx market, not until march 23, the deadline for payment of their obligations...from there whatever happens, whether greece can pay their obligations or not will surely result in extreme volatility again..

Eyes now are on focused with the US...so far everything's positive with their economics and qe3, which was a driver of risk sentiment is taking a back seat, hence the strength of usd..at the moment, the fx mover are us treasuries 10-year yields they are fluctuating at the moment, hence we have a ranging eu...somehow, maybe later, something will give in..

As i'm typing this, US gas storage below expectations and eu suddenly spiked up...
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,594
  • Mar 15, 2012 9:48am Mar 15, 2012 9:48am
Quoting ljin
mine short. but market still ranging. but you're right.
and also i feel like euro/usd will go for a large move soon to either of way.
what's your TP ljin? mines just above mid-week S2, around 1.3117...i already secured +30 pips earlier when that pin bar, pointed out by vantage, appeared protruding up to yesterday's high...

PA slicing through R1 as i type....darn it!

rumor has it that there are pending clustered sell orders @ 1.3090...i hope this is true...
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,595
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:02am Mar 15, 2012 10:02am
Quoting Olafff
I've placed short order just below daily pivot. all this good data for US seems to not making any impact as yet.

is there any Greece decision to be made today? or is that caused by possible downgrading UK?

Hi Olaf,
Look at the PA now, when FFM and LON markets closes, it will break yesterday's high 1.3090 .
This means today candle will be complet a BUOB .. bullish outside bar , right?

Think of selling high!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,596
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:04am Mar 15, 2012 10:04am
Quoting Awin
what's your TP ljin? mines just above mid-week S2, around 1.3117...i already secured +30 pips earlier when that pin bar, pointed out by vantage, appeared protruding up to yesterday's high...

PA slicing through R1 as i type....darn it!

rumor has it that there are pending clustered sell orders @ 1.3090...i hope this is true...

1.3090 ... yes, many technical stops above there.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,597
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:04am Mar 15, 2012 10:04am
Quoting Awin
what's your TP ljin? mines just above mid-week S2, around 1.3117...i already secured +30 pips earlier when that pin bar, pointed out by vantage, appeared protruding up to yesterday's high...

PA slicing through R1 as i type....darn it!

rumor has it that there are pending clustered sell orders @ 1.3090...i hope this is true...
dang. the price nearly hit my SL. my tp is 1.3000 , but i am in minus now.
i thought it is going to be bearish because of divergence too !but most probably it will rebounce.
  • #6,598
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:10am Mar 15, 2012 10:10am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi Olaf,
Look at the PA now, when FFM and LON markets closes, it will break yesterday's high 1.3090 .
This means today candle will be complet a BUOB .. bullish outside bar , right?

Think of selling high!
BUOB is not mean buying low? (if it mean we aim for long)?
  • #6,599
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:11am Mar 15, 2012 10:11am
I told you in the morning to aim for about 1,3090.

Min15 is not to be used for anything more that quick trades. H1 was long!

This is not to insult anybody, but a reminder: Anybody here still using the system and technicals, or you mostly assume?
  • #6,600
  • Mar 15, 2012 10:14am Mar 15, 2012 10:14am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi Olaf,
Look at the PA now, when FFM and LON markets closes, it will break yesterday's high 1.3090 .
This means today candle will be complet a BUOB .. bullish outside bar , right?

Think of selling high!
On a ranging market like this emmanuel, isn't it BUOB aren't so reliable as indicators? In your experience as a trader, how much weight do you give on these price patterns as a signal?

i've put my stop well beyond 1.3090, even past the 23.6 FIB, which so far haven't been touched yet..
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
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