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Daily Chart w/ 10sma

  • #901
  • Mar 14, 2012 5:45pm Mar 14, 2012 5:45pm
Hi,

It looks like the candle closed below the 10 sma on the Kiwi. Just like to know if this a valid signal, or if there is any reason not take the trade.

My idea is to enter on a SELL on 38 or 50% retrace of the long bearish candle. If anyone would avoid this trade, is there any reason?

thanks
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc nzdusdmarch.doc   242 KB | 333 downloads
  • #902
  • Mar 14, 2012 6:50pm Mar 14, 2012 6:50pm
Quoting forexnubie
Hi,

It looks like the candle closed below the 10 sma on the Kiwi. Just like to know if this a valid signal, or if there is any reason not take the trade.

My idea is to enter on a SELL on 38 or 50% retrace of the long bearish candle. If anyone would avoid this trade, is there any reason?

thanks
I will stick my neck out here this looks like a perfectly good trade I see no reason not to take it.
I have got a lot of confidence in it therefore I am taking it myself, if you wait for it to reverse you could even miss a good downward move.
Only my opinion.
  • #903
  • Mar 14, 2012 7:10pm Mar 14, 2012 7:10pm
Hi

Thank you very much for your feedback. I am also taking the trading without waiting for pullback. Looks like a good setup. But wanted to confirm.

thanks
  • #904
  • Mar 14, 2012 7:17pm Mar 14, 2012 7:17pm
Hi guys,

I also took a short on NU. Definitely in a down trend now.
Stop loss at: .8174 and TP is open.

Good luck!
  • #905
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:15pm Mar 14, 2012 10:15pm
one must be careful of the 200 ma. BKG has talked about this.
  • #906
  • Mar 14, 2012 10:51pm Mar 14, 2012 10:51pm
Quoting mark cooper
one must be careful of the 200 ma. BKG has talked about this.
Yeah definitely. However, if you look at the previous points where the NZD has went through the 200sma it hasn't acted as strong support/resistance.
At the moment, the NU is retracing back to the 10sma and continuing it's further drop. (fingers crossed)
  • #907
  • Mar 15, 2012 6:42am Mar 15, 2012 6:42am
BKG if you dont mind me asking, you say you have a very busy work schedule... I was wondering arent you able to live off trading full time ?
  • #908
  • Mar 15, 2012 2:26pm Mar 15, 2012 2:26pm
Hey everybody
First of all big thanks goes to Mr. BKG for his comments.
Last few days were so volatile there was no use for this strategy at least for me.
Watch this pair as I see a huge potential in next week from 1,3050 level
It really depends on further EUR/USD rally developments imo.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.gif Size: 23 KB
swing it!
  • #909
  • Mar 15, 2012 11:16pm Mar 15, 2012 11:16pm
Quoting xTrammer
Yeah definitely. However, if you look at the previous points where the NZD has went through the 200sma it hasn't acted as strong support/resistance.
At the moment, the NU is retracing back to the 10sma and continuing it's further drop. (fingers crossed)
Just an update on this trade. Currently - 150pips. Didn't expect the retracement to be so strong

It's currently at the 50 fib line testing the level while also being near the recent high acting as resistance too. Still gonna ride this one out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd1hr.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #910
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:56am Mar 16, 2012 5:56am
Quoting tomspin
Hey everybody
First of all big thanks goes to Mr. BKG for his comments.
Last few days were so volatile there was no use for this strategy at least for me.
Watch this pair as I see a huge potential in next week from 1,3050 level
It really depends on further EUR/USD rally developments imo.
tomspin

You already long this pair even thou the candlestick has not passed above 10 sma?

How do you get the lines drawn and separated 60/150/240/350?
Can you share the indicator?
  • #911
  • Mar 16, 2012 5:58am Mar 16, 2012 5:58am
Quoting xTrammer
Just an update on this trade. Currently - 150pips. Didn't expect the retracement to be so strong

It's currently at the 50 fib line testing the level while also being near the recent high acting as resistance too. Still gonna ride this one out.
xTrammer

I noticed a few pin bars shown on H4 in USD pairs, maybe your pair would be fine at the week closing.
  • #912
  • Mar 16, 2012 6:10am Mar 16, 2012 6:10am
Quoting yongezy
tomspin

You already long this pair even thou the candlestick has not passed above 10 sma?

How do you get the lines drawn and separated 60/150/240/350?
Can you share the indicator?
Hey mate

I just gave you guys a headsup for next week, this pair is correlated with eur/usd almost 80 % on daily and that is why I have closed it at BE point.
Eur/Usd has a terrible PA at the moment no sense of direction at all.
Just watch it as it has a huge bull potential and wait for 10 sma candle to be above sup and 10sma.
These lines are not indicator at all and numbers are round up just to show you were in case of the rally add more positions, You don't need indicators you should do your analysis and be able to drawn levels by yourself.
Tom
swing it!
  • #913
  • Mar 16, 2012 9:46am Mar 16, 2012 9:46am
Hi,

I played the NZD USD SELL on March 14th daily chart on the SMA close. The price rocketed up.

Is there any technical reason that I overlooked while placing the trade. The support resistance was not really that close, i thought there is some pips there.

Any criticism is appreciated and I would like to learn the system better.

thanks
  • #914
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:04am Mar 16, 2012 10:04am
Quoting forexnubie
Hi,

I played the NZD USD SELL on March 14th daily chart on the SMA close. The price rocketed up.

Is there any technical reason that I overlooked while placing the trade. The support resistance was not really that close, i thought there is some pips there.

Any criticism is appreciated and I would like to learn the system better.

thanks
forexnubie

You traded good based on the rules.

Unfortunately, many are caught unexpectedly since yesterday and so far today, or could be BE. This is live trading! Who knows where would the price go on Monday?

Trade well.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #915
  • Mar 16, 2012 12:25pm Mar 16, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting yongezy
forexnubie

You traded good based on the rules.

Unfortunately, many are caught unexpectedly since yesterday and so far today, or could be BE. This is live trading! Who knows where would the price go on Monday?

Trade well.
This is something that actually bother me, I mean I wish to know how to mix tech with fundamental. I have noticed with time my skills in tech has improved, I am amazed how often I am right but still have problem with price kissing my SL or not enough confidence in my plan, I missed good 100 pips today on that EUR/CAD trade I posted before. I knew it will pop up but hesitated and cancel on BE point.Then Bamm!!! CPI in US and the rest is just history now. Oh well still a lot of room out there and as I look at my chart monday open will be ready to buy. Also look at CAD/CHF I will post more of my ideas on sunday
Good weekend to all.
Tom
swing it!
  • #916
  • Edited Mar 17, 2012 5:26am Mar 16, 2012 1:03pm | Edited Mar 17, 2012 5:26am
Quoting forexnubie
Hi,

I played the NZD USD SELL on March 14th daily chart on the SMA close. The price rocketed up.

Is there any technical reason that I overlooked while placing the trade. The support resistance was not really that close, i thought there is some pips there.

Any criticism is appreciated and I would like to learn the system better.

thanks
Hi
I took this trade along with you at the time it seemed a perfect trade.
Looking back in hindsight I have noticed in the 2hour timeframe that this trade had spent nearly half the day stuck and bouncing of this level 0.8069 prior to giving this signal which was the same entry level.
If we had watched it for a couple of hours we would have seen that a bar which I would describe as a type of pin bar fakey had formed The lesson to be learned here is do not just dive in right away, take your time and weigh up the lower timeframes for the previous days history and if in doubt do not take it.
I have been caught with a few in the past couple of weeks by just going in blind but from now on I will be more vigilant.
I hope this info will help you in the future.
  • #917
  • Mar 16, 2012 3:45pm Mar 16, 2012 3:45pm
Hi,

did anyone got in this buy eurusd trade? its coming from support, it brook 10sma and its going up, is this entry correct?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10.jpg Size: 83 KB
  • #918
  • Mar 16, 2012 10:26pm Mar 16, 2012 10:26pm
Quoting migmac
Hi,

did anyone got in this buy eurusd trade? its coming from support, it brook 10sma and its going up, is this entry correct?
migmac

Perhaps you got it long at the lower time frame, not Daily?
  • #919
  • Mar 17, 2012 1:08am Mar 17, 2012 1:08am
Quoting migmac
Hi,

did anyone got in this buy eurusd trade? its coming from support, it brook 10sma and its going up, is this entry correct?
Looks like a valid entry point. According to bkg's rules of entry, it broke the 10sma, rebounded off support and also has room to move upwards.
I'll definitely be looking at this trade. Lets see how it opens next week.

I'm also looking at EURCAD. Rebounded off support and looking like a movement upwards. Looking at a smaller time frame, I noticed it's having trouble breaking through the 61.8 fib level. So i'm looking for an opening above that level before I will enter.

What are peoples thoughts on these trades?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #920
  • Mar 18, 2012 1:25pm Mar 18, 2012 1:25pm
Hi,

Here are the setups I found on daily charts with the BKG 10 sma.

EURUSD - Bullish close, but a bit hesitant because of resistance at 1.3190

AUDCHF - Bearish close, No support Resistance close enough, may be a good one.

AUDCAD- Same

USDCHF - Bearish close, but USD dollar index, has been strengthening, may be Friday's weakness was a retracement. But no big support resistance close by.

EURAUD - ranging, and looks like the setups forms and it goes the opposite way.

EURNZD - Bearish close , looks like finished the retracement, may be a good price now, for a bearish bias.

Feel free to comment and disagree if you will avoid any pair due to any reason.
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