Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

Ya, I set my limits and am shutting the comp down as well. Have a good weekend !

I made a basic error for deciding trend for this AU post #10750

+ this US dollar index post. #10753

I used the monthly chart for the analysis by mistake.

The correct time frame to use was the weekly.

Therefore please disregard the conclusions I made on the levels I posted on those two posts.

Good Morning/Afternoon….
EURUSD finally got to the very important S/R level.
Price leant against its strong ascending support line and further hours should establish how strong that wall is.
I am calling this day an “itchy-hands-day” as probably there will be many traps for both bulls and beras to fall in. Today price can generate many false signals and patterns which can be dangerous for less patient traders.
I am stepping out of any trades today and waiting for daily bar close to determine possible future direction, though I am expecting price to bounce up.
In addition, my trading logbook says majority of my failed trades took place just on Mondays.

WEEK:
Interesting week ahead with plenty of news; first main dish coming in on Wednesday with ADP Non Farm, then Thursday with ECB Press Conf, following a big cherry on the top on Friday with monthly Non-Farm Payroll.
So guys, don’t drink much coffee while trading this week as it may cause your blood pressure rise.




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Remember…. No matter what, price does what it wants
Like me – vouch me – but don’t follow me

It got there

Hi Traders
This morning EURUSD broke very important ascending support line and easily slid 100 pips down. This changed technical situation on eurodollar.
Are we still waiting for “the 5th wave” to hit 1.35000?
Who knows… Look at this.

At 1.31300 there is another strong weekly & daily S/R level.
Price hit that level now and stopped its further declining.
Within hours we shall see if THAT is THE level, or we crack 1.31300 and fall again.

The 12345 pattern I was calling out last week could be fully rejected if price falls below 1.30000,
turning the formation to be only 3 waves corrective ABC.
We are very very close to this, BUT this formation has not been yet fully denied by the market.
So keep an eye on 1.31300, by now price touched that level only once, also price should start trading above 1.31800
so it’s absolutely too early to say UP or DOWN…



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Remember…. No matter what, price does what it wants
Like me – vouch me – but don’t follow me

Trying a long here and looking for some signs of reversal here to add some more. Closed all previous shorts..GL!

Hi Chillypiper
Noticed you've got very wide stops...
how's it work with you ?

Yes. Still with in 1:1 on tp#1... 1:3 on tp#3 risking 45 and going for 155( added after post). Not too much time to monitor this week for me and using a bit a different style than my norm 30-50 intera day pip targets, with smaller lots..I'll let you know in a few days....GL!

I took a long at 1.0550. It's kinda against my trading rules but I am counting an endless number of red candles on the H4 and my screen experience is telling me that a retracement is due. The last H4 candle was good enough for me as well. I'll be trying to target 1.0650.

All I have to say is WOW! Damn GDP!

Hi All,
As in my post a few days ago about a drop in S&P as well as Dow that I have been anticipating for a while on the Monthly chart, I want to mention a few points both here fundamentally and technically, and why this week we could see a major drop in Equities, which would lead to Risk off and hence strength in USD, JPY and CHF against other currencies.
You can see that we are almost at the peak in equities that we were in April 2011, before the fall of markets. This coincides with current major resistance, Fib fan, and mid-line fork Technically.
In 2011 the drop fundamentally happened due to a few factors, taking from Greece, Middle east and also lack of incentives for further QE, mainly arising from strength in the job market. This week we have the same scenario again, non of the first two situations have changes, and the third one which is the release of NFP. If it shows a reading of 200k plus, which would be third month of strength, then I reckon that pressure for QE will be taken off which markets don't like and we could see a similar drop as that of last year. As for me, I exited my shorts on AUD, waiting for a re-kiss of TL before I go short again. Good Luck all, I hope this info is helpful.

Thanks Tradoholic
As TESCO commercial slogan says "every little helps..."

You're right. The Friday Non-Farm Payroll could be tricky.
All numbers have been growing since September, all 5 months in a row up & up.
Is the American economy doing really so well?
This Friday report refers to February, which isn't the most promising month for employment growth,
but forecasts still favor optimistic growth by another 50K.
For me it’s too optimistic.
All markets are balancing on the edge after weeks of constant rising.
Any "bad" news will be a trigger to corrective movements.
We’ll see Friday…

Afternoon Traders…
I like to see the charts an hour or two after Non-Farm-Payroll when all choppy and chaotic movements settle down.
I think very good data coming in form US should kick stock indices up pulling Eurodollar along.
Well, not much to say today. This is my first “early stage” scenario for Friday and Monday…
I will be looking closely, but carefully for LONG signals within 1.31000 – 1.3080 area.
We’ll see how it works…


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Remember…. No matter what, price does what it wants
Like me – vouch me – but don’t follow me

HI All,
7:40 am here in Sydney, looks like NFP result was as expected and presssure for QE is eased off. This has helped USD across the board as expected (mentioned in my previous post) but hasnt had the effect I expected on indices. I dont think that we can take the risk to the markets off the table as yet. Technicaly all my previous levels are still intact and I expect a turnaround soon.
As for me my short order for AU was triggered on re-kiss of TL ( I should say Goodbye Kiss now) and I have just closed it with 80 pips, short on EU hit my TP on FE 261. Will wait to see market reaction on Monday. Currently No positions.
Have a good weekend all.

Sorry for my lack of posting this week. EU and GU werent in target range and I was travelling a ton. Have a good weekend everyone. I will be travelling next week a little too but will try to post a bunch. Some good movies for everyone to watch this weekend are "The Pit" and "Floored". Trading movies. Also, I suggest Archer for some good laughs. Have a good one everyone

Hi all,
just looking ay AU, I think it will re visit my FE again and drop. Taken an order at the leve; 1.068 targeting 1.04XX areas.

EU looking at shorting at current levels, targeting 1.29XX. GU has room to move up another 100 pips or so before downturn. waiting for a trigger to enter on both

Keep on eye this level,SR.If it stay below this SR,then we might expect more bearish come.

Twinsummit

Good Morning/Afternoon Fellow Traders….

Weak and wounded bulls came to attack this morning.
Round number 1.30000 was the magic trigger for them to activate.
Think bears won’t give up so easily and would like to attack 1.3000-1.2980 soon again.
Great entry point for them would be 1.30800 and 1.31000.
I prefer 1.31000, as it ideally covers 50%Fibo, round number 1.3100 and previous strong support/resistance lines.

So I am also preparing slowly to go SHORT maybe at around 1.3100 with my TARGET set up on 1.2980
Now am scalping LONG a little bit with small accounts, just to kill time ;-)

REJECTION:
Certainly, scenario is rejected if we go trading above 1.31200.

I posted a few charts and more details over here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post5484309