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Extreme TMA System

  • #5,141
  • Mar 13, 2012 10:59am Mar 13, 2012 10:59am
Quoting Surfnomad
Kind of quiet here today. Al and everyone who has contributed just wanted to say thank you again for all your hard work and freely sharing your wisedom. I am focusing on EURUSD M1 M5 TFs and absolutely loving it. For me I prefer sticking to 1 currency on the lower TFs.

Robert

i just figured out that for eur/usd M1 and M5 wrks fine..cuz in M15 its still showing SELL ONLY...when its shooting up..i missed that spike from 308 to 311...
thanx
  • #5,142
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:06am Mar 13, 2012 11:06am
Purple haze all in my brain Lately things just don't seem the same Actin' funny, but I don't know why 'Scuse me while I kiss the sky


Purple haze all in my eyes Don't know if it's day or night You've got me blowin, blowin my mind Is it tomorrow or just the end of time?
  • #5,143
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:08am Mar 13, 2012 11:08am
More than 100 pips long on gbpusd in the last 4 hours!

No news!

Whats going on?

L.
  • #5,144
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:24am Mar 13, 2012 11:24am
my session results:

eurjpy: +41 *panicked and got out

eurgbp: +98 *thought this one might end up being a loss, but gave her plenty of room and she came around. Would probably have gotten out earlier with less gain but I was out for 1.5 hours.

eurusd: +3 *panicked and got out

nzdusd: +21
audcad: +4
audusd: +31

Thanks for all the great insight and dialog from the contributors, especially Al!

Greg
  • #5,145
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:25am Mar 13, 2012 11:25am
Quoting jaau
More than 100 pips long on gbpusd in the last 4 hours!

No news!

Whats going on?

L.
It is really messing up my GA short, might be a stop hunt. I shoulda waited for GU to turn south before entering hmm.
  • #5,146
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:28am Mar 13, 2012 11:28am
Look at your Eur/AUD charts about this time yesterday.....see any similarities?

You do have FOMC statement coming....good luck


cheers
  • #5,147
  • Mar 13, 2012 11:46am Mar 13, 2012 11:46am
Quoting Alorente
I donīt recall having said that you will win 90% of the time using a 30 pip stop loss. I would like to read that post to be proven wrong. I do recall saying that I have an over 90% win rate with the process I follow. I also said that I used to use tight stop losses, as most books advise, but I gave up on that and changed to recovery because I was getting stopped out continuously. I am not saying that the system will not work with a tight stop loss, but you will get stopped out quite often. Also, the EurAud trade from yesterday was not following...
I have found that if you want to have tight stop losses it's better to enter when prices crosses MA(5),not when HA turns blue or red after bouncing off the res/sup lvl.I dont disagree that the way you enter Al is better because,if it goes the way you want,you accumulate more pips.Though for people,like me ,that dont like recovery trades,entries based on the MA(5) are way better because it's a higher probability setup.
  • #5,148
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:29pm Mar 13, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting eremix
I have found that if you want to have tight stop losses it's better to enter when prices crosses MA(5),not when HA turns blue or red after bouncing off the res/sup lvl.I dont disagree that the way you enter Al is better because,if it goes the way you want,you accumulate more pips.Though for people,like me ,that dont like recovery trades,entries based on the MA(5) are way better because it's a higher probability setup.
I agree, even though when I used it, I had several hit the M5 and retrace from there giving you less pips and a move against you. Overall, I think entering the order as far away from the band is the safest way to go.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,149
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:34pm Mar 13, 2012 12:34pm
Al in your opinion would you suggest being flat for EURUSD going into the FOMC Statement announcement coming up in 45 minutes?

Thanks for your thought on this

Robert
  • #5,150
  • Mar 13, 2012 12:59pm Mar 13, 2012 12:59pm
Quoting Alorente
I agree, even though when I used it, I had several hit the M5 and retrace from there giving you less pips and a move against you. Overall, I think entering the order as far away from the band is the safest way to go.
Al
I followed your advise at last ....trading the H1 now since last night. I agree its best starting there and then later moved up to the M15 and M5.

I made my 1st 64 pips in 3 trades and I'm sticking to the rules. It takes a lot of dissipline not to enter the trades too early on the H1. I also keep watching the M15 and M30, which also gives me an 'indication and a better picture' of the point of entry. The H1 also allows me to enter a good trade before going to work in the morning... with a SL and TP of cause.

Many clever traders lately post indicators and other ways and means of making pips, but I think at this stage its best to leave that for the more experienced amongst you, otherwise I might get confused....!. I believe I currently will only use what is in THE PACKET on page 1.

Thanks a million for all the effort and experience that you and many others are still channelling into this system.

Thank you kindly.

  • #5,151
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:16pm Mar 13, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting harry45
This Indi permits to avoid flat zones and in good agreement with TMA Slope
Hi Harry45,

What is that for a nice indicator about all the pairs in the left of your screen, would you mind posting it overhere ?
  • #5,152
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:19pm Mar 13, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting interbucks
Al
I followed your advise at last ....trading the H1 now since last night. I agree its best starting there and then later moved up to the M15 and M5.

I made my 1st 64 pips in 3 trades and I'm sticking to the rules. It takes a lot of dissipline not to enter the trades too early on the H1. I also keep watching the M15 and M30, which also gives me an 'indication and a better picture' of the point of entry. The H1 also allows me to enter a good trade before going to work in the morning... with a SL and TP of cause.

Many clever traders lately post...
For me it is essential to adhere to the system simplicity. It contains within itself a whole philosophy of trading.
  • #5,153
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:22pm Mar 13, 2012 1:22pm
Quoting interbucks
Al
I followed your advise at last ....trading the H1 now since last night.
Congratulations on finding what works for you! Steve
  • #5,154
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:45pm Mar 13, 2012 1:45pm
Dear Al :

about this post :

" Long term, I think it is going to 1.1700, but I believe it will rebound temporarily from here, maybe to center line or the opposite band on M15. "

it is very long long term target at EURUSD , right ??

about this post :

" Originally Posted by Alorente
No. I closed it.

William, if you need to have close stops and you have trouble leaving trades open at night, I donīt think this system will work consistently for you. The system is based on catching extreme turns. Inherently, those extremes imply volatility and you will continuously be stopped out if you donīt give price the room and time to change direction. I am telling you this because the way you managed EurAud was exactly the opposite of what the system requires, and it will happen to you multiple times in the future. It is important to fit...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

at EurAud Trade yesterday, it look great at H1 chart, but at M15, its counter trend trade, so, if we trade at M15, Must follow TMA rule, otherwise,
take too risky, sooner or later, bank account will disappear.

But if we focus on M15 trade, we can not look H1 to deal a setup ??

or If we focus H1 to setup a trade, no need to look down to M15 ??

or just look down to M15, M5 to figure out a better entry point ??

thank you Al again ~~

SCOTT / Taiwan office

~~~~~~~~~~~~
  • #5,155
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:47pm Mar 13, 2012 1:47pm
Quoting interbucks
Al
I followed your advise at last ....trading the H1 now since last night. I agree its best starting there and then later moved up to the M15 and M5.

I made my 1st 64 pips in 3 trades and I'm sticking to the rules. It takes a lot of dissipline not to enter the trades too early on the H1. I also keep watching the M15 and M30, which also gives me an 'indication and a better picture' of the point of entry. The H1 also allows me to enter a good trade before going to work in the morning... with a SL and TP of cause.

Many clever traders lately post...
Iīm glad you are successful with H1. It is a much more relaxed way of trading this system, especially if you are not a full time trader.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,156
  • Edited 2:03pm Mar 13, 2012 1:50pm | Edited 2:03pm
Quoting Alorente
I donīt use the EAs because, as you said, I use Recovery. I get consistently better entries on all trades than with the EA. I would have to say that a good 20% of trades may get stopped out with tight (20 pip) SL. If you use SL, I would place it above the previous high (Short) or below the previous low (Long), not just an arbitrary number of pips.... Then you should only be stopped out 10% of the time or less....
Hola My Friend,

This is the post where I got the "90%" win rate I was referencing with a 30 pip SL. You said (quote above) an 80% win rate with 20 pip SL. 30 pips almost always allows you to "place it above the previous high (Short) or below the previous low (Long)". That is why I was under the impression that approximately 30 pips was a reasonable stop loss. I do not place 30 pips arbitrarily. I use the "previous high / low", but as I said, 30 pips usually covers it.

Even the above mentioned 80% win with 20 pip stop loss is great. Assume I have 10 trades. 8 of them make 15 pips (30 pips band to band with at take profit at the midline) and 2 of them lose 20 pips. 8 trades x 15 pips = 120 pips - 40 pips for the 2 trades that were stopped out = 80 net pips.

That is why I am having a bit of trouble with the idea that the way I managed the EURAUD trade is inconsistent with the strategy. If the above statements are true, then being stopped is just part of doing business. On the other hand, if recovery trades are required for this system, my comfort level will not allow it.

Thank you, my friend, for your kind attention and patience.

William
may you find what you seek and trade what you find
  • #5,157
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:55pm Mar 13, 2012 1:55pm
Quoting lologo
For me it is essential to adhere to the system simplicity. It contains within itself a whole philosophy of trading.
Exactly. You just made a good point. I donīt think this system is better or worse than others, but it certainly encapsulates my philosophy of trading, acquired over my lifetime. I am not a buy high, sell higher type of trader. I am not a breakout with the trend type trader. I am a buy as low as you can and settle for small profits type. I require a very high percentage of wins to feel good about what Iīm doing, even if they are small. The system was designed to fulfill those needs. Thatīs why it is not for everyone.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,158
  • Mar 13, 2012 1:57pm Mar 13, 2012 1:57pm
Quoting scott-ibm
Dear Al :

about this post :

" Long term, I think it is going to 1.1700, but I believe it will rebound temporarily from here, maybe to center line or the opposite band on M15. "

it is very long long term target at EURUSD , right ??

about this post :

" Originally Posted by Alorente
No. I closed it.

William, if you need to have close stops and you have trouble leaving trades open at night, I donīt think this system will work consistently for you. The system is based on catching extreme turns. Inherently, those extremes imply...
Not very long. I expect by early summer, we could see the euro under 1.20.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #5,159
  • Mar 13, 2012 2:03pm Mar 13, 2012 2:03pm
Hi Al, I'd like to know about the risk you usually take or what you would suggest in an average trade.
I'm assuming that the following trade is planned to go in recovery mode if nedeed, then the risk is calculated accordingly.
Account 100k, risk is 4%, 4% of 100k is 4k.

I will open a trade with 1 standard lot (100k), if it goes -100 pips I'll open another position with the same size, 1 standard lot. And if it goes another -100 pips down (total -200), I'll open another position with 2 lots (200k) which it will have 50 pips to go against before triggering the -4k loss and closing the trade.

I make this little example to understand the real risk of your trades, and I understand that if you want to open more than one trade at the same time (with possible recovery trade) you will definitely have to work with trade sizes that are half your account if not less, in other words for instance, with a 100k account your average trade will start with a maximum of 50k (if not less).
This way you will sleep tight and will be able to recover even more than one trade per time, which luckily doesn't happen often to you.
Am I on the right track?
Best regards
Godspeed
Max
  • #5,160
  • Mar 13, 2012 2:08pm Mar 13, 2012 2:08pm
A deleted post !


Al do you care about the trend markets ?!

I mean when we have strong bull and bear markets , do you trade them or not ?!

if so ? how do you trade trend markets ?!
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