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Nexas's Intraday Range Bar Trading

  • #601
  • Mar 12, 2012 9:34am Mar 12, 2012 9:34am
Hi,

Glad I stumbled across your thread a few weeks back. Been trading your setup (albeit somewhat filtered as I've indicated in prior posts) with considerable success on the 4 and 8 pip range charts.

An even bigger impact on my profits has been switching my thrust trades (my big money makers) from the 7 pip chart with a 10 minute guide to a 4 pip chart with an 8 pip guide. Lots of additional pips there.

I'd like to share the final version of my filters with the group but have a question. I want to be sure I've identified all the triggers as correctly as possible. In the following chart, assuming all the EMA's are lined up, which of the four trend line breaks (blue dots) would you consider to be takable signals? Based on my interpretation of the rules you initially posted and the video examples, and assuming the relevant swing low is the first one in the attached chart, it appears to me all are valid signals. I know the second and third breaks only have 3 bar pullbacks but I've seen you treat that kind as continuations of the first pullback. For the ones that are not, why not? What are the rules/guidelines that would eliminate them?

Attached Image


Incidentally, all would have been eliminated out by my filters (even though the EMA's were indeed all on board).
  • #602
  • Mar 12, 2012 6:21pm Mar 12, 2012 6:21pm
my stops were per the rules.

for interactive brokers, it's half a pip as a tick. so the mistake i was making before using 4 and 8 range bars was that they were actually 2 and 4 range pip bars. i now changed it to 16 range bars (8pips) and it's working pretty good. not a lot of trades though. i think 8 pip range is pretty good. sometimes you can get in late and it will still work.

i would like to ask, how are people dealing with no historical information from IB? i was told in addition to the 55usd for ninjatrader, I have to fork out another 50usd for kinetick for historical information.

it's annoying right now. sometimes i have to wait up to 2 hours to get an idea of the ema's before I can trade
  • #603
  • Mar 13, 2012 3:27am Mar 13, 2012 3:27am
Quoting chiba_san
took 3 trades today. all of which were between 1.5:1 and a 2:1 trade just now on the 8 range on the eur/usd. all 3 won.

nexas, out of every 10 trades, what would you say is your experience in win trades versus loss? do you typically win 5/10 trades? or 6/10 or do you not keep track of that part?
Hi Chiba_San,

Typically if you are waiting for the best setups you should get 6/10 or better... But from day to day, week to week this can change and swing in either direction. But overtime you should be ablle to get a 60-70% strike quite realistically.

Thanks

Nexas
  • #604
  • Mar 13, 2012 3:35am Mar 13, 2012 3:35am
hi all,

just took 2 shorts on the eur/usd on the 8 pip range bar chart. first time got stopped out for a -9 pip loss. then I shorted again when it re-broke the trendline and made +17 pips. now waiting to get back in.

nexas- with 6/10 and with a 1.5->2.0/1 risk to reward ratio, I think we should all do well. in fact, very well. I am now also using the price alert. an alarm goes off when the price strikes through a price I enter in ninja trader. that helps since I don't have to stare at the screen which gets super boring after a while.

i think this is very prosperous. i am happy about this. I've read more on range bars. it does take out the noise well. however, the price alert is super important especially when it's on a higher range bar range (less trades)

nexas- are you paying for historical data to an additional provider on top of the fee for using ninja trader?

btw, just a recap, I think I am somewhere in the range of 12 wins to 4 losses since I started trading again (and using this) which I believe was early last week. There were all types of issues mainly with me not understanding the platform (ninjatrader) but i think i'm good to go now.

(note, taking the average risk to reward amongst all trades, it should be somewhere in the range of 1.4:1. which means technically, if you had a 50/50 win to loss record, you would still do well as long as your Lots are big enough)
  • #605
  • Mar 13, 2012 3:38am Mar 13, 2012 3:38am
Quoting scjohn
Hi,

Glad I stumbled across your thread a few weeks back. Been trading your setup (albeit somewhat filtered as I've indicated in prior posts) with considerable success on the 4 and 8 pip range charts.

An even bigger impact on my profits has been switching my thrust trades (my big money makers) from the 7 pip chart with a 10 minute guide to a 4 pip chart with an 8 pip guide. Lots of additional pips there.

I'd like to share the final version of my filters with the group but have a question. I want to be sure I've identified all the triggers as...
Hi Scjohn,

So let me understand... the chart you have shown have the EMA's lining up for shorts?

Well if that is the case, the first would be valid... you would have been in the second one but a bit later... I would have adjusted the initial trend line and not drawn a new one.

Then due to already being entered into the second one the thrid one would have been skipped and then the 4th one as well as I probably would have drawn a trend line connecting most of the lows so we wouldn't have had an entry.

But please if you are having success feel free to post the system you are now using after having played with the various filters. It can only benefit the rest of our little community :-)

Speak to you soon.

Nexas
  • #606
  • Mar 13, 2012 3:44am Mar 13, 2012 3:44am
Quoting chiba_san
hi all,

just took 2 shorts on the eur/usd on the 8 pip range bar chart. first time got stopped out for a -9 pip loss. then I shorted again when it re-broke the trendline and made +17 pips. now waiting to get back in.

nexas- with 6/10 and with a 1.5->2.0/1 risk to reward ratio, I think we should all do well. in fact, very well. I am now also using the price alert. an alarm goes off when the price strikes through a price I enter in ninja trader. that helps since I don't have to stare at the screen which gets super boring after a while.

i...

Hi Chiba_San,

That is excellent news! I am happy to hear you are doing well!

Just a quick question... how did you short the Euro? I have a bias to short but the EMA's are not aligned yet on either chart?

Thanks'

Nexas
  • #607
  • Mar 13, 2012 4:15am Mar 13, 2012 4:15am
Hi Nexas,

Here you go, brother!

Just one point to note, that entry you see in the center, was a mistake, I quickly sold it for like a couple pips profit in this scenario, but it was purely a mistake. The first time I got in was the only time you would have been able to do it around 2 bars after the mistake... and I got stopped out for -8 (with commision and spread = -9). the second one hit TP pretty fast.

you mean your ema's look different? I am using 20, 60 and 100. a 16 range chart on Ninjatrader = an 8 pip chart.
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  • #608
  • Mar 13, 2012 4:26am Mar 13, 2012 4:26am
Quoting chiba_san

i would like to ask, how are people dealing with no historical information from IB? i was told in addition to the 55usd for ninjatrader, I have to fork out another 50usd for kinetick for historical information.

it's annoying right now. sometimes i have to wait up to 2 hours to get an idea of the ema's before I can trade
I pay for the Kinetick service. Start Ninja, connect to kinetick then to IB, then disconnect from Kinetick. That way you don't need to hang around for 2 hours waiting for your Emas
  • #609
  • Mar 13, 2012 4:28am Mar 13, 2012 4:28am
cinchona,

so that's 55usd + another 50 usd you are paying?

btw, per my chart, my ema's on the 8 range were all aligned and going down. was it like that on your's too? ...cuz nexas is saying his ema's weren't aligned.
  • #610
  • Edited 4:58am Mar 13, 2012 4:44am | Edited 4:58am
Quoting chiba_san
cinchona,

so that's 55usd + another 50 usd you are paying?

btw, per my chart, my ema's on the 8 range were all aligned and going down. was it like that on your's too? ...cuz nexas is saying his ema's weren't aligned.

Hi everybody,
if it can helps,
for me the EMAs were not aligned for the short one (in this moment they were aligned contrary, for the long trade, same on the 4bars chart)
  • #611
  • Mar 13, 2012 4:54am Mar 13, 2012 4:54am
Hi Tomlee,

Thanks for the update... I can confirm that they were not aligned for me either.

Strange...

Nexas
  • #612
  • Mar 13, 2012 5:14am Mar 13, 2012 5:14am
Hi Nexas,
I am happy you are back here.
It seems, it bounce on Daily PP for the moment.
  • #613
  • Mar 13, 2012 5:14am Mar 13, 2012 5:14am
Quoting chiba_san
cinchona,

so that's 55usd + another 50 usd you are paying?

btw, per my chart, my ema's on the 8 range were all aligned and going down. was it like that on your's too? ...cuz nexas is saying his ema's weren't aligned.
I actually pay a bit more for Kinetick as I subscribe to futures as well, including Eurex data.
Regarding EMA alignment can you be precise about the time and timezone you're referring too.
  • #614
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:25am Mar 13, 2012 7:25am
are your ema bars back 256 or infinite?

mine are on 256.

it could also be cuz I don't have historical data, and it's using whatever I have to calculate.

alternatively, I just eyeball the 5M chart on IB just to see if it's been going up or down.

but inconsistent EMA's will definately be a worry in the long run...
  • #615
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:35am Mar 13, 2012 7:35am
Quoting Nexas
Hi Scjohn,

So let me understand... the chart you have shown have the EMA's lining up for shorts?

Nexas
Yeah, that little unholy mess was from 08:25 EST to 09:02 EST. The concept of keeping the original swing low as the anchor for all was one that I missed. Makes sense.

I usually keep a highly detailed trading journal that logs all signals for EURUSD from 04:00 EST to 07:00 EST and then from 08:00 EST to 11:00 EST, whether or not they are takable and whether or not I'm actually trading (trades derived from charts are tagged as hypothetical). This has been incredibly useful for finding patterns.

Unfortunately, due to some unexpected travel I'm a bit behind in logging stuff but hope to catch up by the weekend and will then double check my data and release the final filter findings.

In the meanwhile, if you're trading the 4 or 5 pip with an 8 pip guide and the 20 EMA on the 8 pip is sloping in the opposite direction of the trade be very careful. Have found very few of those that worked.
  • #616
  • Mar 13, 2012 7:37am Mar 13, 2012 7:37am
Quoting scjohn
Yeah, that little unholy mess was from 08:25 EST to 09:02 EST.
On February 22.
  • #617
  • Mar 13, 2012 8:07am Mar 13, 2012 8:07am
nexas,

look at the eur/usd drop! it's annoying when it falls like that and you can't get back in since it doesn't want to retrace...
  • #618
  • Mar 13, 2012 8:20am Mar 13, 2012 8:20am
Quoting Nexas
Hi All,

For the majority of the trades I was trading to the next support or resistance area apart from the more shallow retracements where I exited on an opposite colour candle.

Nexas
Hi Nexas,

This is from a much earlier post. Is this still your method? Do you give deeper retracements more latitude and allow an opposite candle color? How deep is deep and how shallow is shallow? i.e., less than 1.5x risk is shallow or something like that? Just trying to have my journal model for filters reflect your current thinking. I can actually adapt it to almost any exit strategy for playing "what ifs."
  • #619
  • Mar 13, 2012 9:01am Mar 13, 2012 9:01am
Quoting chiba_san
nexas,

look at the eur/usd drop! it's annoying when it falls like that and you can't get back in since it doesn't want to retrace...
Actually Chiba_san, there were several ways to take bites of this apple. I went short on a thrust trade at 8:01 EST (white arrow) and stopped out with a nice profit at 8:38. Just yesterday I mentioned that it's my big money winner and have discussed it in other posts. If anyone's interested, I'll review it when I go over the Nexas filters in a few days. I believe it's vital to have more than one type of arrow in my quiver. Nexas' setup is a pullback in a trend and one of the most important types of setups. But sometimes trends don't offer pullbacks which is why a thrust type trade (not a pullback but an initial move) is important. But they require heavy filtering (I only take about a third of the signals).

However, it seems to me there were two Nexas setups at around 8:39 and 8:48). The second one even had a 5 wave on momentum. However, I would not have taken the first one and was already short on another thrust trade that triggered at 8:42.

That one just stopped out at a nice profit at 9:14. Been a great morning and I'm betting on consolidation now so I'm going to walk the dogs.

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  • #620
  • Edited 11:13am Mar 13, 2012 10:00am | Edited 11:13am
That's what I am calling the great morning too
Bravo scjohn
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