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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #5,141
  • Mar 12, 2012 6:50am Mar 12, 2012 6:50am
Quoting shahab8b
AU, I prefer selling the rallies as far as price stays below 1.082
Updating our thoughts on Aussie
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,142
  • Mar 12, 2012 7:19am Mar 12, 2012 7:19am
EU SHS, price stalling now at retest of neckline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 73 KB
Hello.
  • #5,143
  • Mar 13, 2012 2:28am Mar 13, 2012 2:28am

  1. COT EU. The addition of OI over 10,000, many movements are usually long (more volatile).
  2. Its long and short positions also looks very uneven.
  3. Besides that on the weekly chart is bearish engulfing there, as well as daily chart, the price also does not establish a new high on the daily chart.

increasingly convinced that the EU is bearish.

What do you think Mr. Shahab?

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-13_EU-daily.jpg Size: 62 KB
Attached Image
  • #5,144
  • Mar 14, 2012 8:31am Mar 14, 2012 8:31am
Very nice tradings

clean charts and totally logical

Just finished reading whole thing

Good Job Shahab
  • #5,145
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:00am Mar 15, 2012 8:00am
Quoting -tuman-

  1. COT EU. The addition of OI over 10,000, many movements are usually long (more volatile).
  2. Its long and short positions also looks very uneven.
  3. Besides that on the weekly chart is bearish engulfing there, as well as daily chart, the price also does not establish a new high on the daily chart.

increasingly convinced that the EU is bearish.

What do you think Mr. Shahab?

Hi Tuman,

That looks the same to me.As I said earlier Long/mid-term I prefer selling the rallies in EU. But I think if we got a new low that could be a long-term bottom.
Attached Image
  • #5,146
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:04am Mar 15, 2012 8:04am
Quoting shahrooz67
Very nice tradings

clean charts and totally logical

Just finished reading whole thing

Good Job Shahab
Thanks, appreciate it.
  • #5,147
  • Mar 15, 2012 8:10am Mar 15, 2012 8:10am
USDCHF: I like the idea of buying the dips in the pair
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,148
  • Edited 5:33pm Mar 16, 2012 4:37pm | Edited 5:33pm
Hi Shahab, nice to see you back posting on your thread. got this thread bookmarked . just wanted to ask a quick question, When you find a setup do you simply place an entry order and wait for it to trigger. From your charts it would seem so. Do you not wait for any confirming price action e.g. pinbar at the level before taking a trade ?
  • #5,149
  • Mar 17, 2012 6:40am Mar 17, 2012 6:40am
Quoting dan89
Hi Shahab, nice to see you back posting on your thread. got this thread bookmarked . just wanted to ask a quick question, When you find a setup do you simply place an entry order and wait for it to trigger. From your charts it would seem so. Do you not wait for any confirming price action e.g. pinbar at the level before taking a trade ?

I use both. Most of the time I use limit orders. If I am not sure about the price action or there is a major news coming up I wait for a confirmation on smaller TFs.
  • #5,150
  • Mar 19, 2012 4:03am Mar 19, 2012 4:03am
Yes, I'm impressed as well. /subscribed

Out of curiosity, have you considered any other quantitative methods of analyzing COT?

Quoting shahab8b
Thanks, appreciate it.
  • #5,151
  • Mar 19, 2012 8:18pm Mar 19, 2012 8:18pm
AU: Short term Long Setup on the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au4.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #5,152
  • Mar 19, 2012 8:24pm Mar 19, 2012 8:24pm
Quoting Verb
Yes, I'm impressed as well. /subscribed

Out of curiosity, have you considered any other quantitative methods of analyzing COT?
Thanks, appreciate it. Not for COT yet but I created some multivariate logistic regression models using SAS. I incorporated some technical variables into the models to predict the outcome of certain patterns and trade setups.All I've used till now are frequentist approaches. I am working on incorporating Byasian Model but that is a bit subjective and also there is a lack of good statistical software to perform the analysis.
  • #5,153
  • Mar 20, 2012 5:39am Mar 20, 2012 5:39am
May be this excel program helps some COT people here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=284089

Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #5,154
  • Mar 22, 2012 8:05am Mar 22, 2012 8:05am
Short term inverted Head and Shoulders on UCHF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,155
  • Mar 22, 2012 8:12am Mar 22, 2012 8:12am
UJ short term double top
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  • #5,156
  • Mar 22, 2012 8:13am Mar 22, 2012 8:13am
EU; short term Head and Shoulders
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  • #5,157
  • Mar 24, 2012 4:43pm Mar 24, 2012 4:43pm
UJ:
Attached Image
  • #5,158
  • Mar 26, 2012 1:00pm Mar 26, 2012 1:00pm
GU: Short setup on the chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,159
  • Mar 27, 2012 4:06am Mar 27, 2012 4:06am
Quoting shahab8b
GU: Short setup on the chart
Decent pips were made on the short GU setup
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,160
  • Mar 27, 2012 5:00am Mar 27, 2012 5:00am
OP beautiful, almost zero risk.
unfortunately I'm not in it, because it's too late to open the computer.
I'm not going to catch the train that was running.
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