DislikedDouble bottom in the making? I've got a sneaky long order in place at 1.0510 (March 7 low)Ignored
- #41,701
- Mar 11, 2012 11:30pm Mar 11, 2012 11:30pm
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: StealingPips | 1,294 Posts
- #41,702
- Mar 11, 2012 11:45pm Mar 11, 2012 11:45pm
Im not sure anyone follows what I say here but my prediction is that with the strengthening USD it will lower the AUD.
I say its strengthening due to the positive data coming out of the US, the stock prices getting higher and higher and higher oil prices which increases demand for USD.
Anyway thats my 2 cents
I say its strengthening due to the positive data coming out of the US, the stock prices getting higher and higher and higher oil prices which increases demand for USD.
Anyway thats my 2 cents
- #41,703
- Mar 11, 2012 11:58pm Mar 11, 2012 11:58pm
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: StealingPips | 1,294 Posts
Im not sure anyone follows what I say here but my prediction is that with the strengthening USD it will lower the AUD.
I say its strengthening due to the positive data coming out of the US, the stock prices getting higher and higher and higher oil prices which increases demand for USD.
Anyway thats my 2 cents
- #41,705
- Mar 12, 2012 12:48am Mar 12, 2012 12:48am
Im not sure anyone follows what I say here but my prediction is that with the strengthening USD it will lower the AUD.
I say its strengthening due to the positive data coming out of the US, the stock prices getting higher and higher and higher oil prices which increases demand for USD.
Anyway thats my 2 cents
Strong economic data in the United States will generally lead to currency flowing OUT of the United States as investors turn towards higher risk markets/currencies.
The USD is a parking space for when risk appetite is off. Other than that, there's more attractive growth markets and at the very least, countries with interest rates higher than the 0.25% the States have committed themselves to until at least '14.
The DOW, NASDAQ, S&P500 are in an uptrend and as the US markets are more or less global markets, its apparent money is going into the USD.
So im not sure I follow or make sense of how it can lead to money leaving the US. I understand that the USD is also a safe haven so money from a safe haven perspective will leave however rising markets create demand on that side as well.
Eitherway, time will prove one of us right hehe
But I certainly dont feel their is much upside left in the AUD.
Again having said that, this isnt from a TA point of view, so for the people chasing Long pips, that still may be applicable (short term)
So im not sure I follow or make sense of how it can lead to money leaving the US. I understand that the USD is also a safe haven so money from a safe haven perspective will leave however rising markets create demand on that side as well.
Eitherway, time will prove one of us right hehe
But I certainly dont feel their is much upside left in the AUD.Again having said that, this isnt from a TA point of view, so for the people chasing Long pips, that still may be applicable (short term)
The DOW, NASDAQ, S&P500 are in an uptrend and as the US markets are more or less global markets, its apparent money is going into the USD.
So im not sure I follow or make sense of how it can lead to money leaving the US. I understand that the USD is also a safe haven so money from a safe haven perspective will leave however rising markets create demand on that side as well.
Eitherway, time will prove one of us right hehe
Again having said that, this isnt from a TA point...
Something being in an uptrend doesn't mean money is flowing into the US equity markets, it simply means that demand exceeds supply at the present moment. You can't conclude anything regarding volume or conclude that their is a net money inflow into US equities based on that, at all...
You don't really need much sense to figure this one out. Go and have a look at the AUD/USD pre-GFC when everything was 'peachy'. The GFC was centered in the United States and Australia was probably the least effected country in the developed world. Now have a look at the AUD/USD (and the general strength of the USD) during the GFC. So the currency of the least effected developed nation lost nearly half its value against the currency of the worst effected nation, and then rallied heavily in light of global stimulus and apparent economic recovery. Does that seem in line with your theory?
In a strong global economy, investors are willing to adopt higher risk in exchange for higher returns in the form of foreign equity markets and foreign currencies.
- #41,710
- Mar 12, 2012 1:46am Mar 12, 2012 1:46am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,927 Posts
swing it!
- #41,714
- Mar 12, 2012 2:44am Mar 12, 2012 2:44am
- | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,927 Posts
no..try the line from down daily candle shadows..i'm on my work so i can't post a chart...sorry
I am a fresh face it's just the way I see charts atm
Tom
swing it!
- #41,716
- Mar 12, 2012 3:04am Mar 12, 2012 3:04am
Im not sure anyone follows what I say here but my prediction is that with the strengthening USD it will lower the AUD.
I say its strengthening due to the positive data coming out of the US, the stock prices getting higher and higher and higher oil prices which increases demand for USD.
Anyway thats my 2 cents
It's the total opposite effect
Son, you have it all messed up
But ultimately this positive data and increased spending in the US will lead to higher interest rates, and that is strength for the USD isnt it?
I know thats months and months down the track by the way. and sorry to be asking such noob questions hehe
- #41,718
- Mar 12, 2012 3:43am Mar 12, 2012 3:43am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Aug 2011 | 7,263 Posts
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your