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  • #63,001
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:37am Mar 9, 2012 12:37am
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  • #63,002
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:39am Mar 9, 2012 12:39am
Quoting fxjawn
nfp is gonna send this thing throught the roof to new highs
will it? the u.s. is picking up manufacturing. so we will import less. we will use what we make and export the rest..japan is hiring in Mississippi, Alabama (Germany also). German manufacturing and japan manufacturing is slipping at home. the less the u.s. imports, the less the deficit. lower deficit = stronger usd. if oil has peaked.. the usd will get stronger and the deficit reduces.

i am watching the aj.. its confused at best atm.. im sure we will bounce, but after the jury is out for me still. i doubt it goes much past 3640 if we get there. atm 3311 seems a stretch.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #63,003
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:40am Mar 9, 2012 12:40am
jon make MC hammer drop the EU another 4.8 pips please... if anyone can do it... Hammer can
  • #63,004
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:41am Mar 9, 2012 12:41am
Quoting gatorinla
will it? the u.s. is picking up manufacturing. so we will import less. we will use what we make and export the rest..japan is hiring in Mississippi, Alabama (Germany also). German manufacturing and japan manufacturing is slipping at home. the less the u.s. imports, the less the deficit. lower deficit = stronger usd. if oil has peaked.. the usd will get stronger and the deficit reduces.

i am watching the aj.. its confused at best atm.. im sure we will bounce, but after the jury is out for me still. i doubt it goes much past 3640 if we get...
well not new highs over all but eventually over 3500 is what i mean
  • #63,005
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:45am Mar 9, 2012 12:45am
Inserted Video
  • #63,006
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:46am Mar 9, 2012 12:46am
Quoting fxjawn
well not new highs over all but eventually over 3500 is what i mean
the employment news may be baked in .. the s/p may form a dt. if it does we got lots of room down. 50% of this leg is a long way.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #63,007
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:47am Mar 9, 2012 12:47am
Quoting gatorinla
will it? the u.s. is picking up manufacturing. so we will import less. we will use what we make and export the rest..japan is hiring in Mississippi, Alabama (Germany also). German manufacturing and japan manufacturing is slipping at home. the less the u.s. imports, the less the deficit. lower deficit = stronger usd. if oil has peaked.. the usd will get stronger and the deficit reduces.

i am watching the aj.. its confused at best atm.. im sure we will bounce, but after the jury is out for me still. i doubt it goes much past 3640 if we get there....
i think we see 3329 and possibly higher tmmrw... the market is funny about punishing people who are too biased one way(including yours truly)... lotsa people seeing this PMI news will want to load up short on the EU... no better time to jam it up thier asses...

in time I think we def turn hard and drive down deep and like you said... the US trade deficit will reduce, producing a stronger USD.... not yet though... the USD is still a funding currency so it really only sees strength in safe haven flows....

with politicking the way it is... NFP's will prolly show another monster number to help obamarama.... and USDs will be sold off across the board... the EU may not be the best pair to trade tmmrw though... but it should go up with the rest if that happens
  • #63,008
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:51am Mar 9, 2012 12:51am
Quoting gatorinla
the employment news may be baked in .. the s/p may form a dt. if it does we got lots of room down. 50% of this leg is a long way.
not saying we will.. but it happens often before a new high true b/o

the same pattern happened with the euro with this bounce to 348x from the jan low. if true the down move will be the 348x high to the jan low X 2 min..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx cam.PNG Size: 41 KB
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #63,009
  • Mar 9, 2012 12:51am Mar 9, 2012 12:51am
trying to get my head round this, the cac only affects non-participants in the psi, right?
  • #63,010
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:02am Mar 9, 2012 1:02am
Quoting FibbinArchie
trying to get my head round this, the cac only affects non-participants in the psi, right?
Nop. CAC will extend to all holders...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #63,011
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:02am Mar 9, 2012 1:02am
Quoting FibbinArchie
trying to get my head round this, the cac only affects non-participants in the psi, right?
just for some brain candy....

greece tendnered 172bln euros in the swap with an 83.5% participation rate and a 85.8% consent rate... the CACs effect everyone participating, and everyone who isnt... the ISDA meets to decide if this will create a credit event(thats bad for the market)... thing is, law bond terms will be amended according to greece for all holders(which is going to end up in court with massive lawsuits and endless litigation)

25bln euro in greek bonds have held out so that will be what the litigation will effect(not good for the Euro)... and the deadline for everyone to jump on board is march 23rd.... if this doesnt eget sorted out greece still faces a hard default...

funny thing is a hedge fund can EASILY block this whole thing by locking down the law bonds... then greece has 0 leverage to do anything with.... it would force a massive credit event and trigger all the CACs.... the banks would make billions in this event but it would destroy europe because they would need to print to high heaven and tax the shit out of the people in order to stave off immediate destruction


but thats a worst scase scenario
  • #63,012
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:06am Mar 9, 2012 1:06am
Quoting Wulfgar
just for some brain candy....

greece tendnered 172bln euros in the swap with an 83.5% participation rate and a 85.8% consent rate... the CACs effect everyone participating, and everyone who isnt... the ISDA meets to decide if this will create a credit event(thats bad for the market)... thing is, law bond terms will be amended according to greece for all holders(which is going to end up in court with massive lawsuits and endless litigation)

25bln euro in greek bonds have held out so that will be what the litigation will effect(not good for the...
thanks, let's see what the ratings agencies make of it all, meantime we're back above dpp just...

gonna wait to see how frankie and london affect things, expecting a narrow range ahead of nfps tho'...
  • #63,013
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:07am Mar 9, 2012 1:07am
Quoting sisse
Nop. CAC will extend to all holders...

sisse
thanks...
  • #63,014
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:08am Mar 9, 2012 1:08am
i wish i had something to say to sound all smart.... but i dont... as dumb as u think i may be remember i made some nice NFP calls the lats 3 releases ... i think wulf said he owes me in n out burger from the last nfp release fade above 3200...

not sure where this one will set up though if it turns out to be 3200 again but launches the opposite way it will be funny as hell
  • #63,015
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:09am Mar 9, 2012 1:09am
Quoting FibbinArchie
thanks, let's see what the ratings agencies make of it all, meantime we're back above dpp just...

gonna wait to see how frankie and london affect things, expecting a narrow range ahead of nfps tho'...
i wrote about this happening a long time ago.... just if u wanna check it out

Quoting Wulfgar
that really is still up for debate... simple fact of the matter is do the major hedge funds want to take the 70% haircut on their GGB exposure OR do they want to go ahead and let greece default so they can get ALL their money back via calling in their CDS's

Remember all it takes is ONE HF to block this entire thing... honestly all it would take to block this entire deal is one hedge fun to buy out a 3 billion euro blocking stake of UK-law Greek bonds ... then greece has absolutely 0 leverage and it is a forced credit event.... means a massive...

funny thing is sometimes these fundies take into account a much much broader scoipe... so for our purposes as traders... the market doesnt always line up with the fundies at the most convienient times... ive learned that the hard way...lol
  • #63,016
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:13am Mar 9, 2012 1:13am
Quoting Wulfgar
just for some brain candy....

hedge fund can EASILY block this whole thing by locking down the law bonds... then greece has 0 leverage to do anything with.... it would force a massive credit event and trigger all the CACs.... the banks would make billions in this event but it would destroy europe because they would need to print to high heaven and tax the shit out of the people in order to stave off immediate destruction
....Looks like this is done and gone for now. 80% on Board, ECB with preference and the other via CACs....going to court against the "whole" financial world that finally accepted the unavoidable (since 2 years ago) is not a bright option..... plus and to be honest, come on, they were playing with fire and they knew it. The had enough time to "clear" and run so they knew the risks .... with this deal they lost almost all like it or not...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #63,017
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:14am Mar 9, 2012 1:14am
Quoting fxjawn
i wish i had something to say to sound all smart.... but i dont... as dumb as u think i may be remember i made some nice NFP calls the lats 3 releases ... i think wulf said he owes me in n out burger from the last nfp release fade above 3200...

not sure where this one will set up though if it turns out to be 3200 again but launches the opposite way it will be funny as hell
http://i632.photobucket.com/albums/u...out100x100.jpg

its waiting for you bro
  • #63,018
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:14am Mar 9, 2012 1:14am
Quoting Wulfgar
i wrote about this happening a long time ago.... just if u wanna check it out




funny thing is sometimes these fundies take into account a much much broader scoipe... so for our purposes as traders... the market doesnt always line up with the fundies at the most convienient times... ive learned that the hard way...lol
it's got a habit of doing the exact opposite of what it should...
  • #63,019
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:14am Mar 9, 2012 1:14am
Quoting Wulfgar
http://i632.photobucket.com/albums/u...out100x100.jpg

its waiting for you bro
lol thats not even right lol good god
  • #63,020
  • Mar 9, 2012 1:15am Mar 9, 2012 1:15am
Quoting fxjawn
i wish i had something to say to sound all smart.... but i dont... as dumb as u think i may be remember i made some nice NFP calls the lats 3 releases ... i think wulf said he owes me in n out burger from the last nfp release fade above 3200...

not sure where this one will set up though if it turns out to be 3200 again but launches the opposite way it will be funny as hell
meh, went long, sl at 29. gn all.
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