Stop set:
Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
- #16,162
- Edited 2:45am Mar 6, 2012 2:34am | Edited 2:45am
"I call this.......
Could you please post details.
Looks more like "barbed wire" to me.
Possibly the end of an excellent trade-able up trend; which has run of steam, before moving to the downside.
From your posted charts, it seems that you entered before the 2 March BEEB, which engulfed (approximately) the previous 13 bars.
Was it the long wick on the 29 February inverted hammer which convinced you that it was time to take counter trend positions and to sell NZDUSD?
It would be very helpful if you could share your reasoning...
'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said in a rather scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor less!'
Now, before we go on, we must agree, Mr Optimist : definitely a Preying Mantis!
[No? You REALLY can't see a Preying Mantis? You really just see 'barbed wire"? ...hmmmm... really..?.... maybe I do need to stop smokin' that stuff!]
Ok
Could you please post details.
Looks more like "barbed wire" to me.
Possibly the end of an excellent trade-able up trend; which has run of steam, before moving to the downside.
From your posted charts, it seems that you entered before the 2 March BEEB, which engulfed (approximately) the previous 13 bars.
Was it the long wick on the 29 February inverted hammer which convinced you that it was time to take counter trend positions and to sell NZDUSD?
It would be very helpful if you could share your reasoning and the timing of your short entries.
Yes and no. No and Yes.
No, in that a detailed and reasoned account would take a huge amount of effort - not to mention editing. (and right now I'm feeling tired and lazy - just not in the mood for thinking too hard.) No, in the sense that a detailed account, one would need to run all the way back in history to the float of the kiwi..
Yes, in the sense that I could throw a few thoughts together, incoherent and garbled though they may be..
Kiwi floated in1984, though I can't remember the month. Immediately plummeted to 40 cents versus the US. (Google the economic/political history and the reason behind the float and collapse). Couldn't get any worse for the kiwi! ... or could it?
After improvement/restoration of the kiwi's (true??) value through to the Asian economic crisis in 97, guess what? The kiwi heads south and does the unthinkable! ..goes below 40 US cents. (around 2000,/2001 - check the long term charts)...
Say, am I boring you? Let's get back to your post...
Possibly the end of an excellent trade-able up trend... Now, every excellent trade-able uptrend is immediately recognisable - right after it finishes!
... which has run of steam, before moving to the downside. Really? Why, oh why, didn't you post this earlier? If I had known this, I would have thrown yards and yards on a short!
Seriously. How do we know it is about to move to the downside? We don't. We can't. But, if it can't move UP, then it might just move down ... and the movement down, might just exceed the cost of holding the position (roll).
So, the question becomes - what evidence do we have that it can't move up?
Before we get on to that, let us have a good look at the action prior to "the the 2 March BEEB, which engulfed (approximately) the previous 13 bars."
Now, we can agree on the following:
[1. It IS a "preying Mantis"!]
and
2.This pair was in an up trend since the Dec 15 low of .7460 (actually, it has been in an uptrend since the 0.38?? low in 2000/2001, but that's a longer term perspective). Our deaf, dumb and blind one-legged man with asthma can see the 1000 pip uptrend since Dec. Right?
Well, they can see it NOW. Now, with the benefit of hindsight!
Let us look at the chart:
Now, if my memory serves me correctly, every forex analyst and elliot-wave theorist was screamin' to sell the kiwi on any retrace in dec. The multi year uptrend was over... etc .. etc.. The end was nigh!
Actually, the picture then is a lot clearer if we resurrect a chart I posted on Dec 9 (#160041)
Actually, if you go back to an even earlier post I made (#16029) you will see that I was in a long position and that I had a sell order in place at around the levels I have just sold at. (I still have that sell order in, on the account used for the #16029 post. It just hasn't been triggered - missed by 18 pips).
So, In answer to your question/comment: From your posted charts, it seems that you entered before the 2 March BEEB, which engulfed (approximately) the previous 13 bars.
Absolutely. If you reveiw my earlier posts on this pair, then you will realise that I have been planning (for several months) to short around the levels that were reached late last week. Assuming we saw some evidence that it
" couldn't go up".
re: Was it the long wick on the 29 February inverted hammer which convinced you that it was time to take counter trend positions and to sell NZDUSD?
As above. I have been expecting the PA at this level and have planned to short if we got there. We got there - and the "inverted hammer/long wick" as you call it (I would call it an SS (the last(?) of a series of SS's once the 1000 pip uptrend was breached) was simply the confirmation required to " push play".
And a little more confirmation:
let us check the 4 hour. A couple of important lines here, adding confirmation to that months old sell order a little under .85
When we breached that rising up trend line on the 4hr, friday night, it was "game on". I entered two positions immediately and set 3 more for a possible retrace back towards 85, two of which were entered in the wee small hours of saturday morning here in NZ while I slept and the US markets bounced this thing up and down within the predicted range. One of the add -ons was closed out for profit during the US markets.
The rest has been posted here.
Of course, a dozen other interpretations are possible. I could post more. But, I'mtired .. off to bed..
To end:
1. I promised you garbled and incoherent. I hope I haven't disappointed!!
2. Where will she go from here? If we knew that Roger, we would be with Patrick, sippin' Pina Coladas in the Carribean! What we do know, is that risk is defined, and, IMO at the present point there is more downside risk than upside risk. I have taken profit on 2 positions and the remainder are stopped above 85. The stop loss on these position is covered by the profit already taken.
3. I sleep good at night.
cheers, Trogger
- #16,163
- Mar 6, 2012 6:59am Mar 6, 2012 6:59am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: 15 YEAR PASR THREAD Senior Member | 12,379 Posts
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
- #16,165
- Mar 6, 2012 5:03pm Mar 6, 2012 5:03pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: 15 YEAR PASR THREAD Senior Member | 12,379 Posts
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
- #16,167
- Mar 6, 2012 6:17pm Mar 6, 2012 6:17pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: 15 YEAR PASR THREAD Senior Member | 12,379 Posts
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
- #16,169
- Mar 6, 2012 6:41pm Mar 6, 2012 6:41pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: 15 YEAR PASR THREAD Senior Member | 12,379 Posts
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
- #16,173
- Mar 7, 2012 6:22am Mar 7, 2012 6:22am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: 15 YEAR PASR THREAD Senior Member | 12,379 Posts
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
- #16,176
- Mar 8, 2012 7:12pm Mar 8, 2012 7:12pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: 15 YEAR PASR THREAD Senior Member | 12,379 Posts
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
- #16,177
- Edited 5:23am Mar 12, 2012 4:57am | Edited 5:23am
....After attempting a search of this thread, I still do not know what a "Preying Mantis" candle formation is; or even if, it is a candle formation.
Could you please describe, and if possible post a chart to illustrate your description.....
Hello Mr Optimist
The preying Mantis setup occurs rarely, but imo, is a formation that is well worth waiting for - and almost always completely reliable.
It is not at all easy to spot amongst the camouflage of the candles and I generally find that, after hours and hours of analysis of the charts, a little (or even a lot) of Glenfiddich can facilitate the visual acuity necessary to recognise this unusual formation.
Some even argue that identification of such a subtle formation is impossible without the addition of a little "Purple Haze" which can be useful in reducing the number of "false positives" that beginners inevitably believe they see.
I strongly recommend perseverance and I am confident that, with experience (hic!), you too can learn to recognise the formation.
If you look carefully, you will see that another has formed on the Aussie Cad and I post a chart in the sincere hope that this will help:
Could you please describe, and if possible post a chart to illustrate your description.....
Hello Mr Optimist
The preying Mantis setup occurs rarely, but imo, is a formation that is well worth waiting for - and almost always completely reliable.
It is not at all easy to spot amongst the camouflage of the candles and I generally find that, after hours and hours of analysis of the charts, a little (or even a lot) of Glenfiddich can facilitate the visual acuity necessary to recognise this unusual formation.
Some even argue that identification of such a subtle formation is impossible without the addition of a little "Purple Haze" which can be useful in reducing the number of "false positives" that beginners inevitably believe they see.
I strongly recommend perseverance and I am confident that, with experience (hic!), you too can learn to recognise the formation.
If you look carefully, you will see that another has formed on the Aussie Cad and I post a chart in the sincere hope that this will help:
...........The preying Mantis setup occurs rarely, but imo, is a formation that is well worth waiting for - and almost always completely reliable.
It is not at all easy to spot amongst the camouflage of the candles
If you look carefully, you will see that another has formed on the Aussie Cad and I post a chart in the sincere hope that this will help.........
Looking back at NZDUSD which started this correspondence, I have to say that it looks more like your AUDCAD example now, than it did when you first posted the chart. The front legs are more clearly defined.
I keep an eye out for future "PM" setups; but I'll be sticking with basic PASR and another method I learned from Strat, which have proved very easy and profitable.
Roger
PS: If you let us know your name it would make correspondence less impersonal.
One of the pleasant aspects of stratsforextrading.com, is that, even though there is plenty of vigorous debate and strongly expressed dissent there, it is all done with courtesy and in a friendly tone; quite unlike what I have seen on many FX threads.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
- #16,179
- Mar 12, 2012 4:31pm Mar 12, 2012 4:31pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: 15 YEAR PASR THREAD Senior Member | 12,379 Posts
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
- #16,180
- Mar 12, 2012 5:04pm Mar 12, 2012 5:04pm
....After attempting a search of this thread, I still do not know what a "Preying Mantis" candle formation is; or even if, it is a candle formation.
Could you please describe, and if possible post a chart to illustrate your description.....
Hello Mr Optimist
The preying Mantis setup occurs rarely, but imo, is a formation that is well worth waiting for - and almost always completely reliable.
It is not at all easy to spot amongst the camouflage of the candles and I generally find that, after hours and hours of analysis...
And yes - I traded it.
Guess where the stop goes?