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  • #6,341
  • Mar 8, 2012 1:20am Mar 8, 2012 1:20am
Quoting IenDzi
I want to ask about yesterday EU H1 trade. I got a loss.
Can I avoid this trade? I've noticed that is my common mistake and I don't know how I could avoid it. Has anyone some advice?
Thank you.
Hi IenDzi,

In hindsight, I can talk and write a lot of nonsense rubbish.

But you did the right thing when you place a Stop Loss for that trade.

So long you have a trading plan and you traded your plan with discipline, despite the loss, I can only say:

Well done!

Keep your head up.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,342
  • Mar 8, 2012 1:24am Mar 8, 2012 1:24am
Quoting Con
Price is reaching the low, will it breakout to trade higher?

My answer: I still don't know.
I always ask myself,
when the market makes its move, will it take me along?
when the market make its move, will it leave me behind?

That FAQ every trade decision.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #6,343
  • Mar 8, 2012 1:31am Mar 8, 2012 1:31am
Quoting emmanuel7788
My answer: I still don't know.
I always ask myself,
when the market makes its move, will it take me along?
when the market make its move, will it leave me behind?

That FAQ every trade decision.
Thanks emmanuel, that's very true. I have looked through the different TF. Currently only weekly differs from the rest, however weekly has yet to close.
  • #6,344
  • Mar 8, 2012 1:57am Mar 8, 2012 1:57am
I've positioned myself on both sides
long at 1.3186
short at 1.3155
I call it hunting for break out
  • #6,345
  • Mar 8, 2012 2:16am Mar 8, 2012 2:16am
Quoting emmanuel7788
Hi EvoPips,

The basics of using multi-timeframe is available in babypips school.
There are merits in using MTF trading and many successful trades / authors have written a lot on their systems and how they approach the market looking doing MTF analysis. Here in this thread and all over in FF, traders talk about MTF analysis in their trading.

In yesterday' (07 Mar) example, I posted the chart when FFM* open, and H1 TDI show a cross down. When I remember that the Weekly TDI is also pointing downards, but the cross down is not comfirm until this...

Thanks emmanuel

Does that mean that it is recommended to wait for all the TFs to sync together to the same direction then you would take up the trade?

Because you look at weekly first, so we will focus on the trend based on the weekly?

For today, weekly is a down, daily and h4 are up. And H1 is up. How will you determine is it right to enter a trade?
  • #6,346
  • Mar 8, 2012 2:34am Mar 8, 2012 2:34am
to be honest. i had a conflict right now. not sure what to do at a time like this.
here is my overvation:
daily TF shows a bullish divergence indicated a bullish sign.
h4 shows bullish too with tdi cross up ( but just a little above it there is a strong resistance *200EMA and 60EMA .) but daily channel still shows a downtrend.

h1 indicated that the uptrend a bit of exhausted and the bear looks like wanting to appear.

so i dont know what to expect to trade whether i waiting for bull or bear.

. is it right if i wait until either the price break out from 200EMA first to decide where it will go?
  • #6,347
  • Mar 8, 2012 2:38am Mar 8, 2012 2:38am
Quoting EvoPips
Thanks emmanuel

Does that mean that it is recommended to wait for all the TFs to sync together to the same direction then you would take up the trade?

Because you look at weekly first, so we will focus on the trend based on the weekly?

For today, weekly is a down, daily and h4 are up. And H1 is up. How will you determine is it right to enter a trade?
Yes if you are trading MTF you increase your odds. Trend depends on time frame and as you say W is down but D, 4hr up. I won't agrue those (D is below 200 ema and below 50 level and hasn't crossed up yet) just repeating what you said.

I have been blathering on every now and then about trend, if you are trading a 1hr TF it would be reasonable to take D and 4hr into consideration.

So at the moment D is on higher highs, higher lows but below the 200 ema (the big boys weapon of choice). Until we have a decent pos close candle/cross up TDI/TDI above 50 I am still focused on selling.

Taking it all back to X-Mans view on pa. Add into mix S/R levels are king, we've had 3 good legs down, so some retracement is to be expected. With COT still heavily short buy signals in and around LO (yes that again) will be treated by me with caution (ie ignored).

Thats my humble opinion, what time frames you want to bring into the picture is your choice, looking at the bigger pic will help though.
  • #6,348
  • Mar 8, 2012 2:42am Mar 8, 2012 2:42am
It bounce of 23.6% of move down and is also 61.8 of last leg.

Sold @ 1.3180 with tight stops because good resistance
  • #6,349
  • Mar 8, 2012 2:45am Mar 8, 2012 2:45am
Quoting josh11
It bounce of 23.6% of move down and is also 61.8 of last leg.

Sold @ 1.3180 with tight stops because good resistance
for me. still waiting until the candle closed. but if the price indeed short. then you will get more pips
  • #6,350
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:00am Mar 8, 2012 3:00am
Quoting Vantage
Yes if you are trading MTF you increase your odds. Trend depends on time frame and as you say W is down but D, 4hr up. I won't agrue those (D is below 200 ema and below 50 level and hasn't crossed up yet) just repeating what you said.

I have been blathering on every now and then about trend, if you are trading a 1hr TF it would be reasonable to take D and 4hr into consideration.

So at the moment D is on higher highs, higher lows but below the 200 ema (the big boys weapon of choice). Until we have a decent pos close candle/cross up TDI/TDI above...
Uh yes. I forgot to put in the EMAs for a clearly view. I agreed with you the trend is indeed still down for D and H4.

And now i looked at H1, candle form new high and pullback. I will most probably short when new candle opens.

Thanks Vantage! You helped me alot
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eu_h4_030812.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu_h1_030812.png Size: 31 KB
  • #6,351
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:00am Mar 8, 2012 3:00am
no go for me
  • #6,352
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:11am Mar 8, 2012 3:11am
Quoting josh11
It bounce of 23.6% of move down and is also 61.8 of last leg.

Sold @ 1.3180 with tight stops because good resistance
If it was me, and I called this short trade based on 4hr chart for a possible multi-day play, then I would give the SL more breathing room.

But if I called this short trade based on 15min or 1hr chart for an intraday play with really tight SL, then I would be scare to short here, considering we're currently on a HH & HL.

Just my opinion, you go with your decision. Good luck!!!
  • #6,353
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:15am Mar 8, 2012 3:15am
out at BE went 15pip+ so moved stop
  • #6,354
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:16am Mar 8, 2012 3:16am
Open was tiny, and it shot up!
  • #6,355
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:22am Mar 8, 2012 3:22am
Went long at 1.3193
  • #6,356
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:26am Mar 8, 2012 3:26am
Quoting Con
Went long at 1.3193
Hi Con,

Can you explain why you enter long there?
  • #6,357
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:27am Mar 8, 2012 3:27am
Don't want you to think I have a negative attitude just because I posted a few loss trades recently. Here is a winner: AU based on H4 method.

Entry:
- cross back into blue band
- TDI cross
- bounce from SHI channel
- very nice pull back candle

Exit:
- TP 75 at EMA200 with 1:1.5 RR ratio

gary
Attached Image
  • #6,358
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:27am Mar 8, 2012 3:27am
Quoting EvoPips
Open was tiny, and it shot up!
yea lol. i surprise myself that it will shot up like that lol and there is not even a news for that.
  • #6,359
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:27am Mar 8, 2012 3:27am
My trend indicators both showing UP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-03-08 EURUSD.jpg Size: 64 KB
  • #6,360
  • Mar 8, 2012 3:28am Mar 8, 2012 3:28am
Quoting EvoPips
Open was tiny, and it shot up!
E/U - Looks like a fake downward London opening, a weak hourly candle trapping a lot of traders who had jumped in on the short side. The reverse to the upside is then further exaggerated by the shorts covering their positions.
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