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  • #6,301
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:36am Mar 7, 2012 9:36am
Quoting nonfiction
Symbol: AUDCAD

+15: Closed 50% of position, Moved SL to +3
TP: +30.

Sitting on +16pips.

Oh Lordy, I'm wrong and would be out (if I was in A/C)!!!
  • #6,302
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:51am Mar 7, 2012 9:51am
The next steps would be to find out what made you think to go long?

If you look at H4 and D1 for AUDCAD I have drawn a big support line that was broken. Since it was broken there is a pressure for downward momentum.

Moving back to H1, I looked for the bounce of EMA50 and jumped it.

Also average daily range for AUDCAD is around 45pips (See MN,WK,TD) for london & new york, so 30 pips looked right and just around the previous low.

I'm expecting a small retrace on lower time frames, but hoping +30 gets hit.

Quoting kokopelli
Oh Lordy, I'm wrong and would be out (if I was in A/C)!!!
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  • #6,303
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:07am Mar 7, 2012 10:07am
My +3 SL got hit.

Managed to lock in +15 pips on 50% of my position.

I'd love to see more commentary from the experienced traders like this during any major activity on their open position. I know some of them leave and forget.

It would be good to see that being considered and posted when a position is opened.
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  • #6,304
  • Edited 10:59am Mar 7, 2012 10:22am | Edited 10:59am
guys, is that look like double top? usd/cad


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  • #6,305
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:26am Mar 7, 2012 10:26am
damn my +47pips become +17pips. today is very rough day for me..
  • #6,306
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:33am Mar 7, 2012 10:33am
Quoting gms
I made 3 losses this week by entering a break out (confirmed by TDI), which turned out to be a pullback. Actually, I stupidly managed to buy the high and sell the low!

Now I stopped trading at all to prevent revenge trading and went back to backtesting. When I compare my backtest results with Phx62' charts, he miraculously always seems to know, when to stay away from a break out.

How do you guys determine at LO, if a breakout is real or not?

gary
There is no exact science on LO head fakes that I know of. One trader I respect had the view that he only trades the reverse direction to the move out from Asian session, so if pa moves up from Asian session he's only looking for signals to sell. This is contrary to one of the respected guys here that has the opinion that large moves on Asian will continue.

Personally I prefer good old trend. As good a method as any is (a) daily tdi cross and (b) TDI above below 50 level. So for example if D tdi is below 50 and crossed below on Y's close I'd be looking for moves up at LO to be the head fake and be waiting for chances to sell.

Are there exceptions to this and times when you need to ignore this general rule, of course. If you have HAD A SIGNIFICANT RUN DOWN ALREADY, HIT AN OBVIOUS SUPP/REST LEVEL on higher time frame, combined perhaps with a fib/trend line/important ma/divergence on D chart.

Basically you need a confluence of solid reasons to go counter trend as opposed to taking every trade because an indi has crossed.
  • #6,307
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:34am Mar 7, 2012 10:34am
Quoting nonfiction
This is also a mystery to me. I have always tried to post when I have opened a trade not always after a positive close.

The few really good traders here always seem to only show when they close. I for one would love to challenge those really good traders using this system to post a comment when they have opened a trade and their reason behind it not after the trade was closed.
Totaly agree...

2 bad trades for the day , , , tried to trade the previous session breakout and both stops were hit, if my 1st stop was just alittle lower, would have been a good trade. Oh well, thats how we learn.
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  • #6,308
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:39am Mar 7, 2012 10:39am
NZD/USD 4 HR trade still going

as of now only +11 pips though, already on the 3rd candle. Not really sure what to do with it ,,, any recommendations?
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  • #6,309
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:48am Mar 7, 2012 10:48am
Quoting only20gp
NZD/USD 4 HR trade still going

as of now only +11 pips though, already on the 3rd candle. Not really sure what to do with it ,,, any recommendations?
I think your SL is litlle big, move it to BE...
  • #6,310
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:54am Mar 7, 2012 10:54am
Quoting Vantage
Personally I prefer good old trend. As good a method as any is (a) daily tdi cross and (b) TDI above below 50 level. So for example if D tdi is below 50 and crossed below on Y's close I'd be looking for moves up at LO to be the head fake and be waiting for chances to sell.

Are there exceptions to this and times when you need to ignore this general rule, of course. If you have HAD A SIGNIFICANT RUN DOWN ALREADY, HIT AN OBVIOUS SUPP/REST LEVEL on higher time frame, combined perhaps with a fib/trend line/important ma/divergence on D chart.
Exactly !!

It is very interesting to observe how the 50 line on TDI separates out good and bad trades. However, the most difficult part is to be patient and sit on hands to watch how price danced around this level before a trader can take a high probablity trade.

Trade well.
Forex is boring but profitable with patience and discipline
  • #6,311
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:05am Mar 7, 2012 11:05am
Quoting only20gp
NZD/USD 4 HR trade still going

as of now only +11 pips though, already on the 3rd candle. Not really sure what to do with it ,,, any recommendations?
Important news for Kiwi in 3 hours.
I would move SL to BE
  • #6,312
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:07am Mar 7, 2012 11:07am
That looks like a double top to me. Keep an eye out for the top and bottom in that range.

If it breaks (closes) outside that range, most traders will consider that as momentum going in that direction. So you would have statistics on your side.

I wouldn't have gone short. I would need to see lower highs forming and a break out of the bottom resistance to go short.


Quoting chiche
guys, is that look like double top? usd/cad


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  • #6,313
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:13am Mar 7, 2012 11:13am
Quoting chiche
I think your SL is litlle big, move it to BE...
I am trading the 4hr chart, the lot sizes are smaller cuz the SL are higher and so are the TP. need to give it room to breath, now at +23 pips. think ill close half now and let the rest run. This has been the worst week, now down by -35 pips for the week.
  • #6,314
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:20am Mar 7, 2012 11:20am
Couple of things I see wrong (everyone makes this mistake so please dont consider that criticism) your first buy position should have been on the close of that candle. You opened before the close and it retraced a long way.

Looking at the candle and the size of the wick and the retrace. That would have given you clues that the big pull back is a sign of bullish indecision. I wouldn't have opened a trade.

Your second candle going short, I see is trying to enter a trend that has already took off. From my experience I find it easier to enter on a reversal, that is on either the 1st or second candle of a new trend (colour).

Good luck!

Quoting only20gp
Totaly agree...

2 bad trades for the day , , , tried to trade the previous session breakout and both stops were hit, if my 1st stop was just alittle lower, would have been a good trade. Oh well, thats how we learn.
  • #6,315
  • Mar 7, 2012 11:35am Mar 7, 2012 11:35am
Quoting nonfiction
Couple of things I see wrong (everyone makes this mistake so please dont consider that criticism) your first buy position should have been on the close of that candle. You opened before the close and it retraced a long way.

Looking at the candle and the size of the wick and the retrace. That would have given you clues that the big pull back is a size of bullish indecision. I wouldn't have opened a trade.

Your second candle going short, I see is trying to enter a trend that has already took off. From my experience I find it easier to enter on...
Thanks nonfiction, I never take it as cricitism but rather much appriciated feedback. I was under the impression that one does not have to wait for a breakout candle to close, if it was in the 1st few minutes of the I would have waited, but it was during the last 10 minutes or so (Lesson Learnt)

Second trade was also the same thing, but as to what you said about trading the 1st or 2nd candle, I found it better to only take the trade once the candle closes with some space away from the yellow 4EMA. During backtests i found it to have around 80% win rate. I think Dean Malone mentioned something like this too.

So far I am having a great time trading this system and have to take it into account that days like this do come along.

So just to clarify it once more, during a breakout trade, I should wait for the candle to close so the true shape of it is revealed ? even if it happens during the first 5 minutes of a 1 hour candle?
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  • #6,316
  • Mar 7, 2012 12:21pm Mar 7, 2012 12:21pm
What your saying is also valid. I did some analysis of where I would consider entering:

First thing I did was go to a higher time frame. I had drawn a resistance level at thick horizontal white bar (1.311).

On the H4 and D1 you will see the big rally down towards the resistance level at 1.311. So there was already a big move. Keeping this in mind I would only consider long position on the H1 time frame.


1) The first red mark is what I would have taken to go short. But considering the overall move on H4,D1 and close to the resistance line (whte horizontal line) I would be looking for longs.

My entries would be on the green ticks. The first one because of the big red pullback candle. If I missed that I would have gone on the open of the next candle. Because of the big bull candle with no bottom wicks. You also have the white line as resistance so you can put your stoploss below it.

I would also 50% take profit on the green (50EMA) as there is always resistance there and move to BE. If you see it bouncing of green close position. If it breaks you could get a good run up. I guess we will see tomorrow.

Your also leading towards the end of the day so may not be good to trade it and better to wait tomorrow.



Quoting only20gp
Thanks nonfiction, I never take it as cricitism but rather much appriciated feedback. I was under the impression that one does not have to wait for a breakout candle to close, if it was in the 1st few minutes of the I would have waited, but it was during the last 10 minutes or so (Lesson Learnt)

Second trade was also the same thing, but as to what you said about trading the 1st or 2nd candle, I found it better to only take the trade once the candle closes with some space away from the yellow 4EMA. During backtests i found it to have around 80%...
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  • #6,317
  • Mar 7, 2012 12:26pm Mar 7, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting only20gp
Totaly agree...

2 bad trades for the day , , , tried to trade the previous session breakout and both stops were hit, if my 1st stop was just alittle lower, would have been a good trade. Oh well, thats how we learn.
those 2 were a bad trade? is not that suppose a nearly perfect entry and exit? O_O. if i werent wrong. 2 of your trade get +50 pips and total 100 pips today right?
  • #6,318
  • Mar 7, 2012 12:26pm Mar 7, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting nonfiction
That looks like a double top to me. Keep an eye out for the top and bottom in that range.

If it breaks (closes) outside that range, most traders will consider that as momentum going in that direction. So you would have statistics on your side.

I wouldn't have gone short. I would need to see lower highs forming and a break out of the bottom resistance to go short.

you right my friend, I'm worrie about that the break of TDI is above market line. Will see...
  • #6,319
  • Mar 7, 2012 12:31pm Mar 7, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting traderathome
This release of pivot indicators for Day, Week and Month, which include time zone shifted pivots, might help.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post3484709
thank you =D
  • #6,320
  • Mar 7, 2012 12:53pm Mar 7, 2012 12:53pm
Quoting ljin
those 2 were a bad trade? is not that suppose a nearly perfect entry and exit? O_O. if i werent wrong. 2 of your trade get +50 pips and total 100 pips today right?
Hehehe, Ljin, they were perfect losses, its like they knew axactly where my stops were...
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