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Price Action Trading - Cross Currency/Market Analysis

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Oct 7, 2012 3:40pm Mar 6, 2012 7:09am | Edited Oct 7, 2012 3:40pm
This thread will be dedicated to price action trading but cross currency analysis and other markets are referenced i.e. USDX, Gold, Oil and Global Equity Indices.

All analysis is welcome but try to reference the big picture when possible. My personal preference is to reference the USDX when trading currencies. The COT report is another excellent resource and COT updates will be discussed.
  • #2
  • Mar 6, 2012 7:10am Mar 6, 2012 7:10am
Place holder - Reserved for future use
  • #3
  • Edited 7:49am Mar 6, 2012 7:19am | Edited 7:49am
USDX

The USDX gave a strong signal hinting towards broad based dollar strength recently.

See attached chart. This came after the EURUSD gave a bearish engulfing candle as did Gold and gave additional confirmation on the respective markets.

More charts and analysis to come later.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx update march.jpg Size: 118 KB
  • #4
  • Mar 6, 2012 8:07am Mar 6, 2012 8:07am
Gold has taken out the key low from last week. The strong bearish day on the 29th was largely due to dollar strength. The breakout of double inside days to the downside earlier this week was another heads up that the greenback could be seeing a continuation of recent strength.

I took an intra-day long on EURUSD at the Fib/trend line confluence area around 1.3360 yesterday for a quick win but would not have considered holding longer term due to the recent USDX and Gold price action. The USD CAD scalp I took at parity today was likewise never going to be a long term trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold dollar.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #5
  • Mar 7, 2012 6:11am Mar 7, 2012 6:11am
hi

i like the concept
if u dont mind i d like to think out loud a bit....
i like correlations, but if eu, gu, are at resistance,,,more then likely the index will b at R,,,if engulf takes place on EU the same will happen on index,,,does it mean south for eu when we have the same thing confirmed on idex?
somewhat..... likelihood might b just tiny bit better as index takes in account other pairs,.but,,,,if i looked solely at eu i might b pretty much ok just with that.
i am not fighting with u or yr knowledge,,,,if u explain i ll happy i am wiser again.
i wish there is something to tell me what dollar will do,,, risk on - off,,,an i mean something more then S&P chart, but that would b telling from the market?
talk soon
making money in JimB2468 trading room
  • #6
  • Mar 7, 2012 9:39am Mar 7, 2012 9:39am
Quoting fxprocessor
USDX

The USDX gave a strong signal hinting towards broad based dollar strength recently.

See attached chart. This came after the EURUSD gave a bearish engulfing candle as did Gold and gave additional confirmation on the respective markets.

More charts and analysis to come later.
Sorry I a learning fx trading which is the broker offering usdx as shown in your charting? tq.
  • #7
  • Mar 7, 2012 10:04am Mar 7, 2012 10:04am
I agree that a strong price action signal in isolation is often all that is required. More often than not the eurusd and USDX will be similar. However, let's say that gbpusd gives you a breakout setup to go long. You then look at USDX and see it is yet to break significant support. This happens often and the information is there to reference. Sometimes we can ignore it but if the setup has you on the fence the index can help.

Cheers

Fxp

Quoting patient pip
hi

i like the conceptB
if u dont mind i d like to think out loud a bit....
i like correlations, but if eu, gu, are at resistance,,,more then likely the index will b at R,,,if engulf takes place on EU the same will happen on index,,,does it mean south for eu when we have the same thing confirmed on idex?
somewhat..... likelihood might b just tiny bit better as index takes in account other pairs,.but,,,,if i looked solely at eu i might b pretty much ok just with that.
i am not fighting with u or yr knowledge,,,,if u explain i ll happy i...
  • #8
  • Edited 2:38pm Mar 7, 2012 10:22am | Edited 2:38pm
Quoting fxprocessor
I agree that a strong price action signal in isolation is often all that is required. More often than not the eurusd and USDX will be similar. However, let's say that gbpusd gives you a breakout setup to go long. You then look at USDX and see it is yet to break significant support. This happens often and the information is there to reference. Sometimes we can ignore it but if the setup has you on the fence the index can help.

Cheers

Fxp
txhx for yr reply,appreciate it

eu goes really hard out of sinc with $x,,//swings low highs//
then the scenario goes often as - gu making move , but eu diverges //or vice versa// thats when we c $x lagging, brothering eu.
then eu vs gu could b enough .
i am not criticizing by any means,,,cause i watch them all and am aware of levels like i am aware of a splinter in my foot :-),,,
street smartness and references are helpfull as u said.....
great set up now when londoners //more likely// closing their positions in a lazy day neither breaking S or R,,,
but i am all ears to hear of forces u know about
cheers
making money in JimB2468 trading room
  • #9
  • Mar 9, 2012 2:30am Mar 9, 2012 2:30am
Hello, guys, did someone know that the MT4 Platform related knowledge? Please leave your message here, thanks.
  • #10
  • Mar 11, 2012 3:09pm Mar 11, 2012 3:09pm
USDX and EURUSD.

EURUSD ended the week testing support lows. I would like to see the USDX close above the spike high shown below before any EURUSD shorts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: forexfactoryusdx.png Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd analysis march 10th.png Size: 36 KB
  • #11
  • Mar 12, 2012 4:11am Mar 12, 2012 4:11am
Quoting fxprocessor
USDX and EURUSD.

EURUSD ended the week testing support lows. I would like to see the USDX close above the spike high shown below before any EURUSD shorts.
OK EURUSD made a new low by approx 15 pips during the LO. USDX has just double topped for now. Potential intra day squeeze on EURUSD shorts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ff usdx 2012-03-12_0906.png Size: 31 KB
  • #12
  • Mar 12, 2012 6:28am Mar 12, 2012 6:28am
Quoting fxprocessor
OK EURUSD made a new low by approx 15 pips during the LO. USDX has just double topped for now. Potential intra day squeeze on EURUSD shorts.
EURUSD did see upside price action following the last post. USDX can be useful in this way.

Cable has now broken 1.5640 area support so the EURUSD downside has more appeal. EURUSD currently at 1.3109. Lets see if it follows cable and breaks lower.
  • #13
  • Mar 12, 2012 7:50am Mar 12, 2012 7:50am
good analyses fx

am sorry i missed the cable's touch of 5695ish swap level with 30 pip sl,,,,
same approximate time on $x last week high touch
making money in JimB2468 trading room
  • #14
  • Mar 12, 2012 7:17pm Mar 12, 2012 7:17pm
Quoting fxprocessor
OK EURUSD made a new low by approx 15 pips during the LO. USDX has just double topped for now. Potential intra day squeeze on EURUSD shorts.
USDX has continued to the downside since this post. The dollar index turned within 1 pip after hitting the previous high and is now trading 32 pips lower. The $index often respects major levels like this. My weekly analysis identified the USDX 80.00 level as an area that could prove to be significant for the dollar and the price action today adds weight to the level imho.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ff usdx 2 2012-03-13_0004.png Size: 27 KB
  • #15
  • Mar 12, 2012 7:22pm Mar 12, 2012 7:22pm
Quoting patient pip
good analyses fx

am sorry i missed the cable's touch of 5695ish swap level with 30 pip sl,,,,
same approximate time on $x last week high touch
Always another opportunity around the corner
  • #16
  • Mar 14, 2012 6:24am Mar 14, 2012 6:24am
too late to say it here,,but anyways,, i am no fortune teller yet :-)... and beside i am trying to accustom to my new lay out and reading it the right way......

today's hindsight action //lo open//

EG falling again
eu lower low,,
gu higher low
$X not moving much
=
gbp strength

then i would opt for GJ pair,,as it showed pretty 4h gmt candle,and momentum 1 hr engulf norht + participating in blowing those resting stops about clean R
yen's weakness - is enough to look at the chart

fx,,,if u have some hindsights or any, i d b pleased to learn from those if u share

later
making money in JimB2468 trading room
  • #17
  • Mar 14, 2012 11:34am Mar 14, 2012 11:34am
Quoting fxprocessor
This thread will be dedicated to price action trading but cross currency analysis and other markets are referenced i.e. USDX, Gold, Oil and Global Equity Indices.

All analysis is welcome but try to reference the big picture when possible. My personal preference is to reference the USDX when trading currencies. The COT report is another excellent resource and COT updates will be discussed.
Thank you for useful information and analyses.
I am a big fan of the cot report. I am anxiously waiting for you to start discussing it. I am sure you know that the CME is now publishing a new format of the report. It is in a user friendly format and very organized, therefore easier to analyse indeed. The way it is now, the CFTC cot report itself, is like a ball of tangled yarn.

http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/cftc-tff/main.html
  • #18
  • Apr 2, 2012 3:36am Apr 2, 2012 3:36am
Net short British pound (CME) short positioning was 30% lower than the 20th March period according to the latest COT report data. Large specs are less bearish on sterling with –11,110 net short contracts versus –15,852 seen on the previous week.

Combine this with the price action seen today with a bullish engulfing candle on m30 and h1 cable and the setup is the kind I typically look for. its now a case of seeing if this breakout has legs.
Attached Image
  • #19
  • May 8, 2012 2:46pm May 8, 2012 2:46pm
The dollar index 80.00 level has provide resistance on numerous recent hits. I would not generally want to be buying dollars when this level is hit. It will eventually give way of course but has been robust.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dollar index 2012-05-08_20-43-12.jpg Size: 221 KB
  • #20
  • May 8, 2012 9:39pm May 8, 2012 9:39pm
Accordingly. The current scenario possibly boost beyond 81.00, which has been the most relevant level, and hit four times since December 13, 2011.
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