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My trades by Dave

  • #1,041
  • Apr 29, 2006 7:10pm Apr 29, 2006 7:10pm
Here's another chart.

Price is near 50% fibo at 1.2654.

I will look to short with in 15 pips of that 50% fibo and s/l 15 pips beyond it. Target 1.2520. If the s/l gets hit then I'll reverse position and target half way to the 62.8 fibo.
The eur/$ commonly goes half way between the 50 and 62.8 befor returning to its prior trend direction.

Dave
Attached Image
  • #1,042
  • Apr 29, 2006 7:40pm Apr 29, 2006 7:40pm
The above chart shows why this is a critical point. 50% fibo on the monthly chart of a range that started 12/25/04 with a 1.3666 top in place. And ended on 11/12/05 with a 1.1642 bottom in place.

So the price is at 50% of a 2 year trend. I am going to believe that the significance here is great. So it should have trouble breaking the fibo. But will probly take a few nice stabbs at it. For this the price will pull back and establish a bottom end of the range.
From there the price will make attempts to break and probly form a wedge while doing so. If this happens we will easly trade the range up and down. Tightening the trade range each new trade.

If that analigy is wrong and the price breaks 50% easly, then the 62.8 could be a target.

And be carefull of false breaks. Thats where indacaters come in.

And if the price takes a deep retrace quickly (to 1.2490 and lower) then the down side will come into focus.


Dave
  • #1,043
  • Apr 29, 2006 8:21pm Apr 29, 2006 8:21pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
Here's another chart.

Price is near 50% fibo at 1.2654.

I will look to short with in 15 pips of that 50% fibo and s/l 15 pips beyond it. Target 1.2520. If the s/l gets hit then I'll reverse position and target half way to the 62.8 fibo.
The eur/$ commonly goes half way between the 50 and 62.8 befor returning to its prior trend direction.

Dave
The 50% fibo is just above the 162% of the Bearish Gartley/Butterfly pattern. See attached image. So this also supports shorting at the 50% fibo.

With the Bearish Gartley (as I understand it):
(C-D) = (B-C) * 1.27 to 1.62.
B = 1.2325
C = 1.1826

C-D = 0.0499 * 1.62
C-D = 0.0808
D = C + 0.0808
D = 1.2634

Or, you can just look at the attached chart and see where the 161.8 Fib level is. In any case, if D = 1.2634, then this denotes the reversal point. Since the 50% fib level is just above this at 1.2654, there is strong resistance here, and it will take a strong news report to break through.

Link explaining what Gartely/Butterfly is:
http://chart.nu/ta_g.htm

Links to sample Gartley (I found these by doing google images search for Gartley):
http://www.sr-analyst.com/i/Gartley.gif
http://riskytrader.com/wp-content/xle0712.gif
http://www.profitsource.com/images/s...leyPattern.gif

It's of course possible that this pattern does not get fulfilled. Again, I think big news reports coming up will determine the major direction for the next couple of weeks.
Thu May 4: ECB Interest Rate statement
Fri May 5: Nonfarm Employment Change
Wed May 10: Federal Reserve Interest Rate statement
Attached Image
  • #1,044
  • Apr 29, 2006 11:18pm Apr 29, 2006 11:18pm
That looks like a good but complex method. I don't want to learn any more methods or my head might explode. But if thats your primary method it will serve you well. It identifies the paramaters of a double top and double bottom. Wich are both a wave 5 end of trend and ,a,b,c retrace, and the possible next direction after.

I am trying not to have any bias right now. Neither up or down. I want to wait untill the market shows me in the next 2 days and I should be able to find the direction the news will take us in.(most likley)

Don't jump the gun. The market just took a 500 pip move streight up in 2 weeks. That momentom is still there.

Wach for a top to form on the 4hr chart. Bolli bands are good for this. I'll explain in the comming trades. Use the 50% fibo and 10 pips either side(20 pip range) as a pivot range. And wach for wedge to form durring sunday afternoon. The break of the wedge will either retest or retrace. Either way we make money.


Dave
  • #1,045
  • Apr 29, 2006 11:34pm Apr 29, 2006 11:34pm
Thanks Dave,

Very good comments and solid thinking!
  • #1,046
  • Apr 30, 2006 4:36pm Apr 30, 2006 4:36pm
short 1.2630

s/l 1.2660

target 1.2600

there is a good standard trade set up emerging on 4 hr. No time to make a chart. sry. there should be a pull back to 1.2584(8 ema fibo) so I'll target 15 pips short of that.



Dave
  • #1,047
  • Apr 30, 2006 10:28pm Apr 30, 2006 10:28pm
10:00 AM , (gmt +7) may ,1st,2006

eur/usd long at @1.2620 , tp : 1.2700 , sl : 1.2600,trailing stop : 30pips
  • #1,048
  • Apr 30, 2006 10:29pm Apr 30, 2006 10:29pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
short 1.2630

s/l 1.2660

target 1.2600

there is a good standard trade set up emerging on 4 hr. No time to make a chart. sry. there should be a pull back to 1.2584(8 ema fibo) so I'll target 15 pips short of that.



Dave
exit 1.2630
  • #1,049
  • Apr 30, 2006 10:29pm Apr 30, 2006 10:29pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
exit 1.2630
Hi David,

May I ask why you exited at breakeven?
Mr. Trend
  • #1,050
  • Apr 30, 2006 10:30pm Apr 30, 2006 10:30pm
Quoting adam3000
10:00 AM , (gmt +7) may ,1st,2006

eur/usd long at @1.2620 , tp : 1.2700 , sl : 1.2600,trailing stop : 30pips
nice call so far.
Mr. Trend
  • #1,051
  • Apr 30, 2006 10:31pm Apr 30, 2006 10:31pm
Quoting adam3000
10:00 AM , (gmt +7) may ,1st,2006

eur/usd long at @1.2620 , tp : 1.2700 , sl : 1.2600,trailing stop : 30pips
Nice trade.
The pull back didn't go as far as I thought yet. I'll wait for a new entry signal.

Dave
  • #1,052
  • Apr 30, 2006 10:35pm Apr 30, 2006 10:35pm
Quoting Mr Trend
Hi David,

May I ask why you exited at breakeven?
Well...Like I mentioned befor. The market just moved 500 pips in two weeks with no retrace on the weekly and daily charts. So momentom is still there and untill a retest and failer on a 4hr or higher chart the probility is bullish.

I really shouldn't have posted that one and kept it to my self. Its a big move I was trading against.

No more shorts untill a significant top forms 4hr or higher.

dave
  • #1,053
  • Apr 30, 2006 10:46pm Apr 30, 2006 10:46pm
I'm personally sensing that there's not going to be much movement tonight due to E-12 holiday. The market may just be in a range. If the news this morning coming out of the US is unexpected, it should help to move the market in one direction or another.

If the US reports have better than expected numbers there should be a sell bias, worse than expected numbers should have a buy bias.
  • #1,054
  • May 1, 2006 8:01am May 1, 2006 8:01am
Quote
short 1.2630

s/l 1.2660

target 1.2600

there is a good standard trade set up emerging on 4 hr. No time to make a chart. sry. there should be a pull back to 1.2584(8 ema fibo) so I'll target 15 pips short of that.

Dear David !

I thought you captured 15 pips as you said above ?
Quote
so I'll target 15 pips short of that.


anyway , the trend is still an up trend , so you can place a long order any market @ price right now !
waiting for retrace is too long until May 10th ,look at chart 4H for new entry signal !
  • #1,055
  • May 2, 2006 5:52pm May 2, 2006 5:52pm
short eur...1.2616

s/l 1.2636

Target 1.2530


Dave
  • #1,056
  • May 2, 2006 6:01pm May 2, 2006 6:01pm
Quoting xxDavidxSxx
short eur...1.2616

s/l 1.2636

Target 1.2530


Dave
here's chart.

These are the subwaves to the wave "C" in a previous chart I posted on weekly waves.

Now there should ba an a,b,c befor any trend emerges. up or down. The a,b,c should reveal the potential direction.

Dave
Attached Image
  • #1,057
  • May 2, 2006 7:07pm May 2, 2006 7:07pm
Quote
Originally Posted by xxDavidxSxx
short eur...1.2616
s/l 1.2636
Target 1.2530

Dave


nice entry , eur/usd reach at 1.2565 ! dong you use trailing stop ? caught some pips
  • #1,058
  • May 2, 2006 10:48pm May 2, 2006 10:48pm
Quoting adam3000
[/i]

nice entry , eur/usd reach at 1.2565 ! dong you use trailing stop ? caught some pips
I sure did. 5 pips. But the trade went bad
  • #1,059
  • Edited 1:02am May 3, 2006 12:50am | Edited 1:02am
I'm short since yesterday GBP/USD at 1.8415, SL 1.8445, TP 1.8320.
I hope after UK ServicesPMI and BOE announcement GBP should start sliding.
  • #1,060
  • May 3, 2006 4:21pm May 3, 2006 4:21pm
short eur$

1.2640

s/l 1.2656

target open


Dave
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