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  • #6,261
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:12am Mar 7, 2012 4:12am
Somehow, I felt that market is waiting for the news release then PA will move to a direction. On observation mode now..
  • #6,262
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:17am Mar 7, 2012 4:17am
Quoting Awin
Hi evo, i'm also short after LO, what's your TP?

hopefully it develops into our side soonest because US-ADP coming out at NO...


Hi Awin, may I ask what made you go short, I dont see any cross on the TDI or a breakout of the previous session nor is the PA telling us to go short. I may be missing something.
  • #6,263
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:21am Mar 7, 2012 4:21am
Quoting only20gp
Hi Awin, may I ask what made you go short, I dont see any cross on the TDI or a breakout of the previous session nor is the PA telling us to go short. I may be missing something.
if you see at LO. tdi is cross down. though it still above MBL.

closed my short position at -17 pips. now holding long position at 5 pips profit. lets see where the price will go
  • #6,264
  • Edited 4:47am Mar 7, 2012 4:33am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting only20gp
Hi Awin, may I ask what made you go short, I dont see any cross on the TDI or a breakout of the previous session nor is the PA telling us to go short. I may be missing something.
Ljin was right, if you look back to my post#6252, the picture shows a clear TDI crossing and angling at 4 o'clock position and the LO candle is not really a bad one...and looking at the Daily, it seems to support that decision, although the H4 Tf is not really that supportive, there is nothing in the news that would support the move up, so following S3 rules i entered....

i'm holding it in, i'm confident with the S3 system, if it turned out negative, then i'll "charge it to experience"...loosing is part of our game anyway...

on this one, i will have to rely on my real "edge"....

what about you? any open trades?
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,265
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:44am Mar 7, 2012 4:44am
EU I think will go down after some up movements. And what do you think about USDCAD H4, Lower highs and divergence on TDI?
  • #6,266
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:46am Mar 7, 2012 4:46am
I went long as PA broke up the asian session. It might test the first daily pivot resistance.
entered at 1.3159
TP 1.3190
SL 1.3149

BTW Thanks guys for all the post in this thread, you can really learn a lot reading it! Big Thanks!

ps. just a personal note. while I was writing this post, it made me think twice about my trade... well another good use of the forum for piplearner
  • #6,267
  • Mar 7, 2012 4:47am Mar 7, 2012 4:47am
Quoting Awin
Ljin was right, if you look back to my post#6252, the picture shows a clear TDI crossing at 4 o'clock position and the LO candle is not really a bad one...and looking at the Daily, it seems to support that decision, although the H4 Tf is not really that supportive, there is nothing in the news that would support the move up, so following S3 rules i entered....

i'm holding it in, i'm confident with the S3 system, if it turned out negative, then i'll "charge it to experience"...loosing is part of our game anyway...

what about you? any...
LO candle was a weak one to me, as it has both upper and lower wicks.
TDI cross was not steep and overall TDI was upward.
We hadn't crossed Asian Range neither.
  • #6,268
  • Mar 7, 2012 5:24am Mar 7, 2012 5:24am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
LO candle was a weak one to me, as it has both upper and lower wicks.
TDI cross was not steep and overall TDI was upward.
We hadn't crossed Asian Range neither.
Yes, in hindsight the weak candle is the issue I take on board most. I think that there was enough that was right to take the trade (divergence in stochastics, several failed hits on DPP, touch of Fib 38.2%, TDI cross was okay for end of asian session, not great I grant you, Pin candle was good and RR was 1:2). For me the real learning I have taken is about the strength of the breakout candle. I could have got out sooner once I realised that this was not a clean break. As it was I only lost 18 pips at my SL which helped me decide to take the trade in the first place, I'll live another day!

Thanks as ever guys for your comments, really goes a long way to being a second set of eyes for me and if that's not an 'edge', what is?
  • #6,269
  • Mar 7, 2012 5:26am Mar 7, 2012 5:26am
How would someone decide on which divergence to enter on. I see a bullish divergence on H4 and a bearish divergence on Daily. Which TF would you make a decision on?
  • #6,270
  • Mar 7, 2012 5:28am Mar 7, 2012 5:28am
This release of pivot indicators for Day, Week and Month, which include time zone shifted pivots, might help.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...09#post3484709
  • #6,271
  • Mar 7, 2012 5:30am Mar 7, 2012 5:30am
Guys, there is a divergence in the TDI.. Price should fall
  • #6,272
  • Mar 7, 2012 5:40am Mar 7, 2012 5:40am
Quoting Sender
Guys, there is a divergence in the TDI.. Price should fall
Could you please post a chart?
  • #6,273
  • Mar 7, 2012 6:02am Mar 7, 2012 6:02am
To all you RN indicator posters (phx, maxzeus, star... ) - thanks. I wish I'd asked sooner!

Personally I've never found pivots to be of much use but round numbers are worth being aware of.
You have to ask why are there so many different pivot inds available?? One 'correct' one should do...

I once followed a 'Pro' trader who used pivots as an integral part of his daily discussions until it was pointed out he'd set the wrong start time and they were "wrong".

(My) Conclusion: if you put enough lines (clutter) on your chart you're bound to get a line coinciding with PA once in a while!

Anyway, if it works for you...

r
  • #6,274
  • Mar 7, 2012 6:31am Mar 7, 2012 6:31am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
Could you please post a chart?
Here u are.. entered during the break of the 100 EMA.. but with a very tiny TP (15 Pips)

Hope this helps
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Div.jpg Size: 198 KB
  • #6,275
  • Mar 7, 2012 6:37am Mar 7, 2012 6:37am
Quoting Sender
Here u are.. entered an break of the 100 EMA.. but with a very tiny TP (15 Pips)
no wonder i cant find it. it was on m15 chart.

@all: btw. if you guys notice, there is a divergence on h4 from the one we discuss on monday. is it already failed or it still have value?
  • #6,276
  • Mar 7, 2012 6:46am Mar 7, 2012 6:46am
Quoting ljin
no wonder i cant find it. it was on m15 chart.

@all: btw. if you guys notice, there is a divergence on h4 from the one we discuss on monday. is it already failed or it still have value?
Ah ok, sorry :-).. in ranging markets like today (everytime after big moves like yesterday) i am switching over to the M15 to make at least some pips ..
  • #6,277
  • Mar 7, 2012 6:51am Mar 7, 2012 6:51am
I made 3 losses this week by entering a break out (confirmed by TDI), which turned out to be a pullback. Actually, I stupidly managed to buy the high and sell the low!

Now I stopped trading at all to prevent revenge trading and went back to backtesting. When I compare my backtest results with Phx62' charts, he miraculously always seems to know, when to stay away from a break out.

How do you guys determine at LO, if a breakout is real or not?

gary
Attached Images
  • #6,278
  • Mar 7, 2012 6:51am Mar 7, 2012 6:51am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
LO candle was a weak one to me, as it has both upper and lower wicks.
TDI cross was not steep and overall TDI was upward.
We hadn't crossed Asian Range neither.
Hi Dr Zulu

I guess this one goes down to subjectivity, for you, you need steepness in TDI crossing, but X-Man himself specified that look for angles 4 o'clock to 6 o'clock in the TDI, which on this case it is. Also, TDI was around just below the 50 level, again, a good place to short.(please see my post#6252)

I both look on APB and regular candles when I decide if the bar is really a good one or not, again on this for me, it's not too bad a bar to consider to open a position....

The thing is, we analyzed and we entered according to S3 rules, if it turns out negative, then it's a loss trade, and no one can prevent losses from happening no matter how good we are at analysis....

But, so far i'm still in the trade and there's where my other "EDGE" comes into play...

Let's see what happens....so far its positive now....

In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
  • #6,279
  • Mar 7, 2012 6:57am Mar 7, 2012 6:57am
Quoting gms
I made 3 losses this week by entering a break out (confirmed by TDI), which turned out to be a pullback. Actually, I stupidly managed to buy the high and sell the low!

Now I stopped trading at all to prevent revenge trading and went back to backtesting. When I compare my backtest results with Phx62' charts, he miraculously always seems to know, when to stay away from a break out.

How do you guys determine at LO, if a breakout is real or not?

gary
Hey gms,

none of the candles, in which u entered was a valid pullback candle.. if you enter every TDI Cross in a raging market (like today) u will loose money.

Please look first for a, valid Pullback candle than wait for the confirmation due to TDI and than enter at the beginning of the next (2nd) candle... the TDI has to be in a 12h->2h or 4h->6h angle

For example.. look at the first candle in which you entered (sell) the Candle tried to continue its way down, but it was rejected (long lower wick) .. after such a candle only a move up is possible.

Take care!
  • #6,280
  • Mar 7, 2012 7:08am Mar 7, 2012 7:08am
Quoting Sender
Guys, there is a divergence in the TDI.. Price should fall
Well sender, it turns out your right.....price is falling now....
In GOD We TRUST !!! "REPETITION is the mother of all SKILLS." -Bo Sanchez
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