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AUD/USD

  • #41,441
  • Mar 6, 2012 11:09am Mar 6, 2012 11:09am
Quoting mattheweston
Are we hammering out a bottom here on the 1hr chart? I'm in short from 1.0759 and was looking at a long from 1.0525. With what appears to be an upside down hammer forming(can't remember the real name), I would think we may be in for a bounce before we hit 1.0525. Also with the Dollar breaking above 80, we may see a reversal there that would indicate at least to me that we will see a bounce in the aud/usd.

thoughts?
Totally agree.
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #41,442
  • Mar 6, 2012 11:52am Mar 6, 2012 11:52am
With that being said though, if the RBA speech is bad news for the AUD then the only thing I think that could possibly cause a bounce news wise would be a bad NFP report.
  • #41,443
  • Mar 6, 2012 12:29pm Mar 6, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting mattheweston
With that being said though, if the RBA speech is bad news for the AUD then the only thing I think that could possibly cause a bounce news wise would be a bad NFP report.
I guess USD is still the rush to safety play, so bad US Eco news is bad for AUD/USD, because DOW, S&P 500, and NASDAQ suffer when bad Eco news comes out of US, and people get long the Dollar. Also, does not help that Japan had Earthquake and EURO is not stable, Gold prices got too high, so looks like people are running to the dollar, even though in reality the Dollar is the weakest fundamentally. oh well...I hope the bulls come out to play, because all of my long AUD/USD plays are BLOOD RED!!!

Any thoughts?
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,444
  • Mar 6, 2012 12:33pm Mar 6, 2012 12:33pm
Quoting e585009
I guess .... dollar, even though in reality the Dollar is the weakest fundamentally. oh well...I hope the bulls come out to play, because all of my long AUD/USD plays are BLOOD RED!!!

Any thoughts?
i also had blood red but recover and gain a lot now, as a short.
i told here, yesterday that AUD is not God and so it was...
i made 4000 euroz today and closed positions.
I'll shop after the drop
  • #41,445
  • Mar 6, 2012 12:35pm Mar 6, 2012 12:35pm
Quoting mattheweston
Are we hammering out a bottom here on the 1hr chart? I'm in short from 1.0759 and was looking at a long from 1.0525. With what appears to be an upside down hammer forming(can't remember the real name), I would think we may be in for a bounce before we hit 1.0525. Also with the Dollar breaking above 80, we may see a reversal there that would indicate at least to me that we will see a bounce in the aud/usd.

thoughts?
I can see why you would think a bottom is forming however I believe its too early to tell.. check back in a couple of hours , I dont expect the pair to move much until the GDP announcement later this evening
  • #41,446
  • Mar 6, 2012 12:44pm Mar 6, 2012 12:44pm
Quoting Big Gold
I can see why you would think a bottom is forming however I believe its too early to tell.. check back in a couple of hours , I dont expect the pair to move much until the GDP announcement later this evening

Q/Q GDP should be a good number with drop in unemplyment and inc in job postings from Jan, Feb, and Mar, but if it was M/M I would be nervous!!!

Anyone agree/disagree?
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,447
  • Mar 6, 2012 12:46pm Mar 6, 2012 12:46pm
Quoting Willow
i also had blood red but recover and gain a lot now, as a short.
i told here, yesterday that AUD is not God and so it was...
i made 4000 euroz today and closed positions.

US retail Forex traders can not hedge anymore. Thanks to the idiots in Washington D.C.
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,448
  • Mar 6, 2012 2:36pm Mar 6, 2012 2:36pm
Bounced the last 3 hours on H1 chart. Or do we need to see GDP q/q action 1st?

100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,449
  • Mar 6, 2012 2:59pm Mar 6, 2012 2:59pm
>> 4) Aud/USD - Weekly View - 06-09th of March - 4 Hours Chart in analogy with the 35 Pips Range Bars Chart.

Bearish Probability - Price has been moving sideways in the last few weeks. Now, price has reached the support of the congestion area around the 1.059-1.062 Area (Key confluence between Weekly S1 Pivot and Monthly S1). Price is trending under the 200 SMA, and the 50 SMA seems to form a future confluence with the 200SMa which signals a Bearish Probability.

If price breaks 1.059(Monthly S1 Pivot) it could fall further to 1.053(Weekly S2 Pivot) and even reach 1.043-1.042 Area (Key confluence between Monthly S2 Pivot and weekly s3 Pivot).

Bullish Probability - if the 1.059-1.062(Weekly S1 and Monthly S1 Pivots) Area will hold as support, price could turn back upside to reach the Key area between 1.072-1.074(Monthly Main pivot, confluence with weekly Pivot and 100SMA) above the 200 SMA. We can see a future confluence between 100 and 200SMA level arund 1.072-1.074 Area on the 35 Pips Range Bars charts.

To Your Success,
Doctortyby - Tiberiu
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_AUD_USD_Ticks_snapshot.png Size: 38 KB
  • #41,450
  • Mar 6, 2012 3:00pm Mar 6, 2012 3:00pm
I am long AUD at 1.0530 at the retest of the lows i entered long.
Anticipating a ABC up move right to the top.

Check my charts, for this happen, price should reach 1.0720 real quick then retrace slowly and head up to 1.840 area. Then go down again to test these levels.

If the price does not go up quick enough, will exit the long trade.

Long 1.0530
TP - 1.0720
SL @ BE

I might be stupid to think long now, but we have to wait and see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-4H-3-6.JPG Size: 43 KB
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #41,451
  • Mar 6, 2012 4:09pm Mar 6, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting lebleup
That is correct, but we have to hit Parity......FIRST. Then it's game on...again.
That's what we're expecting..Aussie below parity to start long term long position.. took 3 months to rally from 0.96 to 1.08..the rally down the hill should be faster than that (took 1 month only from 1.07 to 0.93 last august ,then from 1.06 to 0.96 last nov)..so expecting a reversal next month
  • #41,452
  • Mar 6, 2012 4:23pm Mar 6, 2012 4:23pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0555

Do I need to say anything else but Y O U R S ...?

Nothing positive for this great currency of ours.

Yes I hear those bulls screaming out "But what about the yield,carry trade, interest rate differential or whatever you like to call it ..?"
Its already factored in and thats the reason they were buying it ..

Use any rally to sell into to obtain my objective target of 1.0350

Good luck.
  • #41,453
  • Mar 6, 2012 4:51pm Mar 6, 2012 4:51pm
Quoting e585009
Q/Q GDP should be a good number with drop in unemplyment and inc in job postings from Jan, Feb, and Mar, but if it was M/M I would be nervous!!!

Anyone agree/disagree?
I'm bearish ahead of the GDP release. The two big components of GDP are trade and sales, both of which weakened. The trade deficit ballooned and retail sales where less than previous quarter
  • #41,454
  • Mar 6, 2012 4:53pm Mar 6, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting lasty
AUD/USD @ 1.0555

Use any rally to sell into to obtain my objective target of 1.0350

380 = top of wave I
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #41,455
  • Mar 6, 2012 4:53pm Mar 6, 2012 4:53pm
Quoting lasty
AUD/USD @ 1.0555

Do I need to say anything else but Y O U R S ...?

Nothing positive for this great currency of ours.

Yes I hear those bulls screaming out "But what about the yield,carry trade, interest rate differential or whatever you like to call it ..?"
Its already factored in and thats the reason they were buying it ..

Use any rally to sell into to obtain my objective target of 1.0350

Good luck.
What is the meaning behind Y O U R S ?
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,456
  • Mar 6, 2012 4:58pm Mar 6, 2012 4:58pm
Quoting David.Wylie
I'm bearish ahead of the GDP release. The two big components of GDP are trade and sales, both of which weakened. The trade deficit ballooned and retail sales where less than previous quarter

Damn!!
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,457
  • Mar 6, 2012 5:12pm Mar 6, 2012 5:12pm
Quoting rustyram
I am long AUD at 1.0530 at the retest of the lows i entered long.
Anticipating a ABC up move right to the top.

Check my charts, for this happen, price should reach 1.0720 real quick then retrace slowly and head up to 1.840 area. Then go down again to test these levels.

If the price does not go up quick enough, will exit the long trade.

Long 1.0530
TP - 1.0720
SL @ BE

I might be stupid to think long now, but we have to wait and see.
After one of my best shorting nights in a long time...
I am with you rustyram, my system just gave me a long signal,
does feel a bit weiry though after such a big drop...
I went Long @ 1.0557, sl 1.0517, Tp OPEN
Expect the unexpected.
  • #41,458
  • Mar 6, 2012 5:27pm Mar 6, 2012 5:27pm
Quoting fx-rocket
After one of my best shorting nights in a long time...
I am with you rustyram, my system just gave me a long signal,
does feel a bit weiry though after such a big drop...
I went Long @ 1.0557, sl 1.0517, Tp OPEN
You both were right, it starts to go up now ...............!
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #41,459
  • Mar 6, 2012 5:35pm Mar 6, 2012 5:35pm
last night after losing quite a bit, i went short @ 1.06035, initial tp was 20 pips, but i closed it for 2 pips as i was being an idiot again.

woke up this morning, ... it was at 1.05300,......
  • #41,460
  • Mar 6, 2012 5:40pm Mar 6, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting happytrader
last night after losing quite a bit, i went short @ 1.06035, initial tp was 20 pips, but i closed it for 2 pips as i was being an idiot again.

woke up this morning, ... it was at 1.05300,......
At least it was not a loss!
Expect the unexpected.
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