Amyc Trade Journal

Watch the 5 day lows at 694, if price is bouncing off there at London open and moving up then it could go as far as the monthly highs before coming down.
I don't think a down day is assured at the moment, the dow and S&P did not have a bearish open this week and the australian market is neutral so far, if Monday was going to be bearish in the US I would expect australia to be trading lower than it is.
Personally I think shorting today is 50/50 and tough to place a stop but that is just me.

What I do when I want a trade but can't get a good price is do a lot of very small entries scattered over the range I am interested in. I also don't use a stop, I make the decision to hold or not based on the daily close, I don't worry what it is doing in between time. This works for me but a lot of the reason it works is because I position trade mostly these days. If you are looking for trades on a smaller timeframe then it may not work for you.

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thankyou . my trading goal is 100 pips at least with 200 + pips being the ideal for a trade. Im after the main 1 or 2 moves for the week.

Therefore position trading for the week or a few days is good. I really like how you hold your trades. It makes life a lot easier when trading.

amyc
Watch the 5 day lows at 694, if price is bouncing off there at London open and moving up then it could go as far as the monthly highs before coming down.
I don't think a down day is assured at the moment, the dow and S&P did not have a bearish open this week and the australian market is neutral so far, if Monday was going to be bearish in the US I would expect australia to be trading lower than it is.
Personally I think shorting today is 50/50 and tough to place a stop but that is just me.

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Thankyou for sharing your thoughts. Amy

Your trading experience expresses itself with wisdom in your thoughts which is extremely helpful.
Now Im challenged to think about the trade more.
I have to think myself clear before placing any trade. I have learned this the hard way. I will check the next 4 hr close level and think carefully from there.

short 1.0705

out + 20

daily lows look to be holding.

short again 1.0677. the daily lows were at 1.0678.

Watch ing EU for long .. have index at 38% fibo and mth and week pivot resistance points with 50% week resistance at 7970.. looking for it to come back to 7900 which is week and month PPX.. my hand Calcu.. hope rite

closed my second short on AU, out at break even.

its difficult to decide where its going.

AU could still go up from the daily lows here.

EU has support here with 3 x daily lows at 1.3154 and 4 hr lows at 1.3164.

just watching both at the moment.

AU has hit the weekly lows at 1.0615.

Soon up is the 3 weekly lows at 1.0596. + 10567.

A new 80 pip range bar has opened. range 1.0627 - 1.0608. 19 pips so far.

My first short yesterday ended up being at a good level 1.0705.

learning to stay in my trade is very important. along with not over trading.

I made these two mistakes yesterday with my two AU trades.

I want to thrash out the process of thinking my self clear before a trade.
I think I like to use the process of elimination.

1. what are the facts ?

I will try to do this with AU.

Now we have a new range bar opened.
we have the weekly lows + 3 weekly lows.
finally we have the daily lows at 1.0605.
Sydney just closed I think 6 mins ago and PA has bounced up 12 pips from the low of 1.0602.
Normally this combination ＝　a very high probability trade.
Safe entry close of 4 hr bar at Sydney close. Or test of this level 1.0602 when the European or London session has opened.

2. In establishing the facts I want to eliminate being subjective. I want to be as objective as possible.

The levels are easy to be objective with. The harder part is deciding upon current market conditions and market timing.
This area is a big learning curve for me and can create subjectivity.

For EU at the moment I use the US dollar index to check.
More than this is necessary which is the process that Im now learning.
For AU I dont have the US dollar index. I have found a AUDLFX index which Im observing to see if its important or not.

Another action is to look at the dia and spy.
Also I like to look at how the other pairs are doing specifically EU and GU. Sometimes AJ and NJ too.
The main pairs I trade are EU, AU, GU. Sometimes I may put on a NJ or AJ trade too.
It is interesting to note that in the last hour as I have been writing this that all of these 5 pairs stopped going down around the Sydney close time and have been reversing back up very short term with similar patterns on the M15 time frame.

My first goal is to make 112 pips per week trading.

Therefore 448 pips is my first monthly goal.

With this method 1 or 2 good trades a week can achieve my first trading goal.

Ideally Im looking for 100 - 200+ pip trades but an 80 - 90 pip range bar trade is perfectly acceptable. Stops will vary on market conditions. As a guideline 20-30 pip stops and stops at break even will be used. Risk to Reward is 3:1 at least per trade.
Risk per trade is a maximum of 2% of my account.
The probability of this method is 70% winning trades and above when effectively used.
Trading the probabilities over a series of trades is important while concentrating on perfect execution of every trade. Mark Douglas.

Here are a few guidelines from another member which make sense to me.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...49#post3746249


1. Know when and at what price you are going to enter the market.
2. Know how much money you are going to risk on each and every trade.
3. Know when and at what price you are going to get out when you are wrong. ( safety stop )
4. Know when and at what price you are going to take your profits if you are right.
5. Know how much money you are going to make if you are right.
6. Have an approximate idea of when the market should meet your objectives or when it should begin to make a move; and if it has not done so, get out.
( time stop )

AU may stop its down trend here with all this key support at the levels I have posted.
The levels make for a very high probability trade, but market conditions are not the best for longs at the moment.
Especially the dia and spy tanking last night before closing up from there daily lows.
Im waiting for a retest of the 1.0602 area before deciding to take a long or not.
At the moment AU has reversed up 28 pips from the Sydney close.

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Long AU at 1.0606 + 1.0613

Here is my take on USD Index..using Loose version AmyC and my own..current hi points sit..current hiis 7951
against..
fibo 38%
fibo ext.. 1.618%
pivot week..38%..7951..
pivot week..50%..7967
pivot month33.3..7967..
also looking at Macd and CCI 4hr which are both showing possible div pattens,, am looking for possible rotation back to weekly.. PPX at 7900
will look for long trade on EU.. based on chart action

1.3180 area for EU.

I was thinking of going long EU.

Im happy with my AU entry for now.

See how AU works out. I think the US session will retest this area.

Stopped myself out at break even and -7 pips.

AU now this area where I attempted a long becomes a good place to short as the major support was broken. Shorting from the 4 hr close coming up in 33 mins. 11pm Sydney time. OR in New York session. 1.0620 - 1.0633 is the best area, but if AU does not make it back there then 1.0602 - 1.0610.

The best market timing may well be if the US dollar index returns to test the 79.54 - 79.49 area.

2 hard for me Ian.. missed a couple of shorts on EU and Cable.. was so fixed on Index coming off.. will retire for nite.. next resistance on index is 7980/90.. at the mo its stuttering at or above 50% point resistance..and Euro is doing same same 50% support.. i got in at 3139 but have just closed for 2 point loss..

good night . thanks for posting.

hi Amy

I think AU is a definite buy today down here.
Do you think Sydney will take it lower than the current low of 1.0525 down to the 1.0485 area?

my current range bar needs to go down to 1.0490 to complete 80 pips.

Also the 4 hr lows are at 1.0497 + 1.0478 with just over 3hrs left on this current candle.

I think the best buy place will be 1.0490 at the same price that the new range bar will open.

Interesting charts Ian.. re index accord to my calcus..Index at 618% resistance and 50% point..EUUD is at support .618%.. Index looks strong to me,,looks resting fore go hier..

I think the money makers leave the PA here long enough and down at 1.0525 area for buyers to buy in. maybe 1-2 hrs then they will tank AU down taking out all the new buyers stops.
Im shorting until 1.0500 area.

I need to check EU and the index some more before thinking of levels.

there is that high on your 4 hr chart at 80.12. also there is the 3 weekly high on this chart at 80.23.

the next 4hr GMT candle close in 1 hr 44 mins. maybe a buy in time for EU and AU.
Otherwise Im just going to check in 15 mins before each 4 hr candle close.

Am long EURO..
reason
USD Index.4 hr.at current hi..50%.. ext 200.. and weekly fibo pivot resistance.. .618..current hi was 7989.. last months PPX was 7991.. this month 50%resistance80.00.. diversion on 4 hr CCI