Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

I missed this one but watching closely now...

Crude oil

..possibly euro make take this route but awaiting confirmation as we see some strength coming into this pair, havent taken a position yet though just waiting for candle confirmation around the green line nearest to current price which is now acting as resistance..
will try to post an update of entry following suitable price action

might just get a cheaper entry in terms of stoploss around the blue shaded area but only PA response can generate my entry, waiting game

yeah currently looking for entry imho in lower time frame m5, ha, just opened buy at 1.3185, will see how it goes... sl is 1.3150

Any options traders here?

re: my previuos charts, im long at 1.3185, original sl was 1.3150 now moved to 1.3175(10pips from entry), price has met the mentioned resistance and stall, this area is also 100% of this bullish hand, break and move above will most likely favour the 1.618% level at 1.3236 and I will take some profit between this level and 1.3256 even up to around 1.3267 when sellers will come in, this current resistance (green line) should act as future support where two things as always will happen - either break or it will hold..

More pips to all as always

oh well, just another day-another dollar stress free trading, i guess lol shhhssh

1.618% level reached and some positions closed, will just stick around to see how this pans out, noticed the golden dashed line - this will now act as my exit guide, already banked some,moved sl on rest positions to 1.3197, and will leave my Options call position to aim for 1.3358 area,

more pips to all

As all can see, with no gimmicks whatsoever the euro seems to be following my road map pretty, i have removed all stress from todays with the Options call position, all thats left now is just relax.. sic ..or is there anything else for milking...very good trades.

The link to the initial post is above, also see notes on the initial chart below - good example of resistance turn support, more pips to u all.

Daily Eur/Usd chart.
If this upward trendline holds, there's on more hurdle to go before the UML.

Pet,

That's a nice series of posts stating your expectations, and proof that the EU followed through nicely with what you thought. Great trade for you, and nice entry near the low of the 1st retracement following the actual bottom.

I think what is missing, for me at least, is your reasoning for expecting that EU had already bottomed out in the first place. You show a down fork who's LML had been exceeded and bouncing lower still, but was finally showing some evidence of a bullish move of some as-yet-known duration. Perhaps you saw shortening of the downward thrust, or maybe some hint of an exhaustion bottom??

However, AlexC's Daily EU chart (previous post to this one) shows some very obvious reasons why price bounced from where it did. It is only 3 pips shy of the 38.2% larger retracement, which is often a target that bounces. It was very close to the Daily trendline connecting the 1/13 and 2/16 bottoms (as viewed on a Daily chart. That line, of course, is by definition the same line as a ModSchiff LML for any fork who's 1st and 3rd points use those two pivot-lows.

And as it turns out, if one draws an Andrews as I did below, the Daily "quartile" below LML is actually the closest/most accurate target as it turned out. By itself, it may not be worth paying attention to, but with the confluence of multiple targets nearby it would. (What I'm not thrilled about with these targets is they are only obvious on the Daily chart, whereas I usually watch H1, even for long-term forks. On the H1, price was shy by 10-15 pips which might have led to hesitation (by me) to enter since it was shy of bouncing off the PF targets; it had, of course, come within 3 of the 38.2% fib line so maybe that would have seemed like "good enough", which it turned out it actually was).

So, in summary, just looking for further insights from pet as to why you expected PA had bottomed (which it had). Also I'm curious where you ran across the 80.9% and 19.1% fib targets? I'm aware of them but I've seen very little discussion of them.

Also, AlexC, great chart as usual. Thanks for posting as well.

Kent (pips4life)

I didn't take this long but the forks were working

Greetings to you, Pips4life,

I want to say sometimes one can never be sure of where the actual bottom would be or which turning point is valid, imho all are guesses until PA reacts, then the reaction(s) can be anticipated because as TA says "history(of price/market) always repeats itself" or in the great Forker's world "action begets reaction".

I use a lot of fib and its interpretation in both conventional and unconventional way, ofcourse a whole lot of Forks and TLs, and ofcourse and very much so - I learn more from my losses than my wins(I will try and dig up an old chart posted on the forum though on a different thread sometime last year or so with a similar scenario where I made a loss, some of that analysis as with most, were based on a Fork analysis).

BUT In this particular trade(5th March), I will try and elaborate more on the reasoning why the thought of the euro bottoming out up came up especially where it did in direct bear run in the first place,in my next post I will try with charts as that may convey more than words.

As earlier mentioned, I use a lot of Forks to eat the market but sometimes the Forks may not be present on the posted chart because sometimes so many lines,so as this is an Andrew's thread, will post some other Forked chart that I have on the euro.

PS.let me know at any time if i have veered off course or am not making any sense..

hope this chart gives a litle insight into the rationale ie 50% level and the build up around there but obviously I have stopped taken trade off the touch of a major trendline, i will enter after break of a build up off a major trendline, hope this makes sense, just that i consider it a safer and more comforting way to approach shy pips

from an H4 view vis a vis Broadening formation, megaphone whose trend line has been in shape as early as first week of this year and a different fib on last swing showing confluence, looking around the keys levels here most times is a no brainer but it is never 100% guarantee.

euro

nice short in there off the pullback

Eur/Usd daily.

Yesterday, downtrending line held price.

Eur/Usd daily.

Half way back from recent hi-low.

AlexC,

You're making some great, timely observations. Hope you're taking trades on them too.

Congrats on making (2**8)*(5**2) posts. (That'd be 1600 Couldn't resist factoring it for fun)