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AUD/USD

  • #41,381
  • Mar 5, 2012 10:28am Mar 5, 2012 10:28am
Quoting BergenGlobal
heavy support on 650-660 range...i'd wait for a decent rally (700-720) before opening up another short

by 650, i mean 1.0650
Why not wait till the Cash rate to be out before entering? =)
  • #41,382
  • Mar 5, 2012 10:38am Mar 5, 2012 10:38am
5min double bottom at support 1.06550. Also wedge forming. Breakout coming?
  • #41,383
  • Mar 5, 2012 10:52am Mar 5, 2012 10:52am
Quoting trader-tan
Why not wait till the Cash rate to be out before entering? =)
that would be the smart thing to do. here's my take on the cash rate decision: the only surprise would be to the down-side. market's pretty much priced in a no-cut at this point. i find it awfully hard to fathom that they'll actually raise the rate. they may surprise us with all this slowER china-growth talk (doubtful) and also with high exc.rate hurting manufactured goods. so, if there's no rate-cut talk, i expect a minor pop to the upside (hopefully 700-720). if there is an actual rate cut, i expect a stop-loss run to the upside and then a huge drop.
  • #41,384
  • Mar 5, 2012 11:03am Mar 5, 2012 11:03am
Quoting trader-tan
Why not wait till the Cash rate to be out before entering? =)
Because I'll be asleep, and it's not really my trading time. I don't know the market at that time of day.
  • #41,385
  • Mar 5, 2012 1:35pm Mar 5, 2012 1:35pm
haven't posted in a while, but I feel that AUD will be sold across many pairs. I have exited my core aud positions in-lieu of a risk-off approach for a few days against many pairs. ie: aud/cad/nzd will lose some of their momentum.
  • #41,386
  • Mar 5, 2012 1:42pm Mar 5, 2012 1:42pm
Quoting trader-tan
Why not wait till the Cash rate to be out before entering? =)
Thanks for the heads up, I completely forgot.

I don't know where in the heck my head is at. Looked over my notes I made over the weekend and that one has a big circle around but yet I forgot.



I am playing this Pair as I would DOW futures. Waiting to see what happens if it gets up around 12885-13000. But all that is on hold for now.
  • #41,387
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:16pm Mar 5, 2012 2:16pm
Quoting Merkabah
The dollar is dead, there is alot going on right now in the world financial system...and talk of a world financial reboot, all national debts erased for all countires, CEO's of major world banks are resigning in masses all over the world, there is no guarantee the dollar will even be the green back much longer, and the euro is'nt far behind.

All the criminal corruptions in the world banking systems is coming to and end, the awakening process has started, mass consciousness is awakening, but if you neeed to trade the forex to eat, here are some...
Forget my post about Gartleys, irrelevant, each to his/hers own way.
As for the rest, what is coming might be devastating to a lot of people that are sucked in by the system of wealth accumulation just for the luxury, i just hope the current status quo does not re emerge.
And on trading forex, it is something society can do without....
Biggest joker
  • #41,388
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:01pm Mar 5, 2012 3:01pm
All this pair seems to be doing is ranging between:
APPX

Top: 1.0850
Bottom: 1.0600
Mid area: 0720

This could be the creation of a top (hence expecting down break at some point. or just consolidation before another move up.

Trading plan: = Several Options.

1. Stay aside and wait for a decisive break if not long from below the range.
2. Buy the range bottom with semi tight stop in attempt to test 0800 - netting appx 200 pips.
3. Lastly and this is my opinion.
Due to the swap this is a HORRIBLE pair to short, that being said as well as the fact a clear range has formed, I would look to short only below 0575 on a decisive break.

We shall see. News - NFP Friday and the greenback things to watch. + China's #s
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #41,389
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:25pm Mar 5, 2012 3:25pm
Forgot to mention that.

Good point. This should move the pair some.

Although it will likely be the same and ring in at 4.25%

10:30 PM EST

Quoting trader-tan
Why not wait till the Cash rate to be out before entering? =)
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #41,390
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:46pm Mar 5, 2012 3:46pm
AUD/USD @ 1.0667

1.0650 the buyers are lining up.. Dunno what for ..

China slows
Floods in Australia will have an effect on exporters
Australian Interest rates steady
Greek Default likely

Positives ?..... ummm....er....er...NONE... sell it..

Next target 1.0550

Happy punting
  • #41,391
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:52pm Mar 5, 2012 3:52pm
AUDUSD @ 1.0666

A noticable expanding wedge style pattern may be developing on the 4hr AUDUSD charts.

Elliott Wave Theory states that the news usually will complete a pattern/wave or start a new one.

If this wedge was to play out "By The Book" (so to speak) - one could anticipate that the news (AUD cash rate) could drive price down to the 10577/88 area (+/-)

The anticipation would then turn bullish for a corrective pattern to unfold back up towards the 10679/89 area (+/-)

NFP numbers could land just right from a timing perspective... could push us down (complete or start a new wave) for a final wave 5 down to complete the overall pattern of an expanding wedge.

If it plays out "By The Book" - which we all know is unlikely - but if it does - the target zone of 10501/10526 may be a level to begin looking for signs of a reversal

Should this analysis be incorrect, an exit strategy would be to look for price to bounce from (roughly) the area we are in now, then looking for clues to determine if it is impulsive or corrective.

Still a rookie here, just in the 3rd year of a trading career... so just an observation... hoping for feedback from fellow EW traders.
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  • #41,392
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:08pm Mar 5, 2012 4:08pm
If she moves further down I am expecting at least some sort of bounce up tonight in early trade. Call it gut.
We'll see.

G/L all
XT
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #41,393
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:14pm Mar 5, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting happytrader
well... i've broken the rule today... too emotional... piled up a bit of losses... crap!

all 10 bullets used today...

if i had traded the aussie this morning and afternoon, i'd be in green pips, the fall in aussie and gbp is very very "neat" whereas the one we see in Euro is.... super choppy...
Which is why I have reverted to my original methodology, I thought sticking to one pair was good enough, but I realised anything less than 4H loses me money.

Went back to high TFs so I have a lot of time to look through multiple pairs to look for signals.
  • #41,394
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:23pm Mar 5, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting jayjb
Which is why I have reverted to my original methodology, I thought sticking to one pair was good enough, but I realised anything less than 4H loses me money.

Went back to high TFs so I have a lot of time to look through multiple pairs to look for signals.
yea, it took me so long to understand that currencies (against usd) don't move in similar manner....

now i've added one more thing to my trading rule, ; trade only NICE AND CLEAN chart......
  • #41,395
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:32pm Mar 5, 2012 5:32pm
Quoting happytrader
yea, it took me so long to understand that currencies (against usd) don't move in similar manner....

now i've added one more thing to my trading rule, ; trade only NICE AND CLEAN chart......
Well if you're gonna be trading price action, only daily and sometimes h4 give solid signals and it takes a lot more patience for wait for confirmation and entry.
  • #41,396
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:45pm Mar 5, 2012 5:45pm
Quoting jayjb
Well if you're gonna be trading price action, only daily and sometimes h4 give solid signals and it takes a lot more patience for wait for confirmation and entry.
i need to harness my patience really, i'm always so impatient when it comes to trading. i like to "get my daily target" hit early in the morning... stupid isn't it...

morning means = dead asian hours.

shit.
  • #41,397
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:47pm Mar 5, 2012 5:47pm
Assuming the RBA cash rate isn't lowered, I'm thinking 700+ today.
Anyone else on the same page as me? Most seem to be bearish at the moment.
  • #41,398
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:05pm Mar 5, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting happytrader
i need to harness my patience really, i'm always so impatient when it comes to trading. i like to "get my daily target" hit early in the morning... stupid isn't it...

morning means = dead asian hours.

shit.
Think calmly, when I started out I had no patience no discipline. But I decided to set and forget. Plus I always wait for the candle to close so while trading H4, i've saved myself from many false breakouts.

Don't think about targets. My achilles heel is also that, when I don't mean my weekly target, i lose discipline. But i know I tell myself, I know what works, in the long run, I'm gonna be profitable so it's ok not gaining that smaller percentage for this week.
  • #41,399
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:20pm Mar 5, 2012 6:20pm
Quoting happytrader
i need to harness my patience really, i'm always so impatient when it comes to trading. i like to "get my daily target" hit early in the morning... stupid isn't it...

morning means = dead asian hours.

shit.
It's good to have goals set but you also need to know when it is unrealistic that you can reach that goal for the day or if it will just be pot luck if you make it or not.

Bottom line is FX is gambling, but what type of gambler are you? Do you just go to the table and have a crack everyday or count cards and only play when your chances of winning are much higher?
It is much more rewarding making money of good trades rather than being very aggressive and never knowing what the end result will be.
  • #41,400
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:33pm Mar 5, 2012 6:33pm
aussie broke the down channel and could be making a bullish base, i'm long from 1.0667 avg, with my stops just above b/e and will let 'er ride
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
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