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Extreme TMA System

  • #3,361
  • Edited 5:31am Mar 5, 2012 5:17am | Edited 5:31am
Quoting JoaoOliveira
AL, can you point some objective thoughts for why are you not taking LONG setups on EUR pairs and SHORT on USD pairs ?
In my opinion if you can share with us a bit of your trading routine and the things that you take a look EXTRA-SYSTEM before take a trade, lots of followers answers will be more clearer.

Certainly this periods off risk-off will occur again... and you will not be with us forever, so, if you can teach us how to identify this periods will be great.

I know that probably is not something easy, and its impossible to share 30 years off...
Joao, there are dozens of technical and fundamental factors that point you to the Risk Off conclusion. It would take me hours to explain them all. I will give you a couple of pointers to look at. The S&P has been in a long uptrend for two months now. It is due for a pullback. I have posted both Daily and Weekly charts for S&P and EurUsd in the past few days that indicate that. Divergences in Trix and RSI among them. The first thing that cracks in a risk off period is stocks. You will see investors taking profits and the indices declining. That pulls down less "safe" currencies like the Euro and money flows to "safe havens" like Usd and Jpy and Treasuries and Bunds. China lowered growth forecasts today. That means less growth for materials exporting countries like Canada and Australia, so that affects Aud and Cad negatively. Oil is down heavily, also produced by fears of lower consumption due to Chinese and world slowing economies. Slow growth means lower inflation, which means lower Gold value. You have seen what has happened to Gold in the past few days. I could go over with you chart by chart of all the currencies and materials, metals, etc and they all point to weakening and the start of a Risk off period.

As we go forward on the thread, I will introduce all of you to the THV4 system in depth. I consider myself an expert in this system, simply because of all the years I have been using it. THV in conjunction with Heiken Ashi, which I will also expound on, are great for trending markets. When you end up mastering both the Extreme TMA which excels with ranging markets and THV/Heiken Ashi which are fantastic with trending ones, you will have a full understanding of how markets work and enough weapons to deal with all types of markets. After THV4, I will reveal my own theory of "Breathing" that will explain in detail how I believe the markets behave as if they were a living entity and learn to predict what the markets "vital" needs are at a particular moment. For now though, we will continue to focus on Extreme TMA until you master it. Introducing you to other things at this time would only lead to confusion.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,362
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:24am Mar 5, 2012 5:24am
Quoting JoaoOliveira
AL, can you point some objective thoughts for why are you not taking LONG setups on EUR pairs and SHORT on USD pairs ?
In my opinion if you can share with us a bit of your trading routine and the things that you take a look EXTRA-SYSTEM before take a trade, lots of followers answers will be more clearer.

Certainly this periods of risk-off will occur again... and you will not be with us forever, so, if you can teach us how to identify this periods will be great....
By reading flaw's pdf file you can answer much of what you are asking yourself.

This isn't a course in trading~it's a community effort to develop a profitable trading system.

We all try to contribute what we can and Al has generously contributed most, but others has given much also.

If you are willing to educate yourself, as I, and others, are trying to do, great. Everyone has been very generous with their help, if you've tried your best to find the answers yourself.

But it's good to remember, it's not a course in trading forex. You can find that information else where.

Best wishes on your journey.
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #3,363
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:24am Mar 5, 2012 5:24am
Quoting realtrade
Hi Alorente and all, I came to this thread on last friday after markets closed so I wasnt able to really see how the TMA and TMA slope work. Now on monday Im able to watch it live and really like it. I hope I understood it right and you 1st want to proof over time that your system is working and 2nd look with all the other traders for ways to maybe make it even better. I like to work with the donchian channel 20 (20 bars) as a stop and also trailing with it, so my first thought was: look for the TMA slope to be above 0.5 (for shorts all v.v.) and...
Realtrade, welcome and thanks for your input.

Please post the donchian 20 indicator for those that do not have it so we can all observe it working if we chose to.

Thanks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,364
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:30am Mar 5, 2012 5:30am
Thanks Alorente for sharing your trading methodology. It has definitely improved my own trading approach by defining higher-probability areas in which to look for trade entry. Much appreciated.
  • #3,365
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:32am Mar 5, 2012 5:32am
Quoting Alorente
Joao, there are dozens of technical and fundamental factors that point you to the Risk Off conclusion. It would take me hours to explain them all. I will give you a couple of pointers to look at. The S&P has been in a long uptrend for two months now. It is due for a pullback. I have posted both Daily and Weekly charts for S&P and EurUsd in the past few days that indicate that. Divergences in Trix and RSI among them. The first thing that cracks in a risk off period is stocks..."
It's really nice hear you.

Thanks for the quick reply.

J.O
  • #3,366
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:32am Mar 5, 2012 5:32am
Quoting Alorente
Joao, there are dozens of technical and fundamental factors that point you to the Risk Off conclusion. It would take me hours to explain them all. I will give you a couple of pointers to look at. The S&P has been in a long uptrend for two months now. It is due for a pullback. I have posted both Daily and Weekly charts for S&P and EurUsd in the past few days that indicate that. Divergences in Trix and RSI among them. The first thing that cracks in a risk off period is stocks. You will see investors taking profits and the indices declining. That pulls...
Cant thank you enough for your priceless contributions and those to come. The way you called market action live over the last week was just ridiculous
To learn firsthand from a trader and not just some crumby forex educator means the world to me.
  • #3,367
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:32am Mar 5, 2012 5:32am
Quoting jswin
Thanks Alorente for sharing your trading methodology. It has definitely improved my own trading approach by defining higher-probability areas in which to look for trade entry. Much appreciated.
That´s what I´m here for. Thanks for joining us.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,368
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:41am Mar 5, 2012 5:41am
Is there a chat room on skype or some othe medium for this sytem ?
  • #3,369
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:42am Mar 5, 2012 5:42am
Sorry but this system will not last, the tmaslope repaints too, so more or less all the indicators used repaints, i have been in 3 trades this morning following the rules and they all turned out losses.

Seems back to the drawing board for me yet again.

Well done Al tho, for making trading work for alot of people, congrats for that your a good man, and keep up the good work.
  • #3,370
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:48am Mar 5, 2012 5:48am
Quoting Alorente
Realtrade, welcome and thanks for your input.

Please post the donchian 20 indicator for those that do not have it so we can all observe it working if we chose to.

Thanks.
Upps, yes here is the link for Donchian Channel
http://codebase.mql4.com/5684
  • #3,371
  • Mar 5, 2012 5:50am Mar 5, 2012 5:50am
Quoting Alorente
The system works friend but there are periods when all systems will be tested to the extremes. I´ve been saying for days now, to not go long the euro and not go short the Usd. We have entered a RISK OFF period. This applies to the Jpy also, even though to a smaller extent than the Usd.

Risk Off = Usd higher
Euro lower
Jpy higher
S&P500 lower
Gold lower
Oil lower
Gbp higher but not as much as Usd.

When you get into a Risk Off period, fear takes over and...
Just realised that Risk Off which you describe above, seems to manifest itself on the chart in the form of patterns you described in your post #1255 on p 84.
Maybe in such situations it might be best to trade the box in direction of the stronger currency. (See attached)
EP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 135 KB
  • #3,372
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:07am Mar 5, 2012 6:07am
Quoting andyvxr
Sorry but this system will not last, the tmaslope repaints too, so more or less all the indicators used repaints, i have been in 3 trades this morning following the rules and they all turned out losses.

Seems back to the drawing board for me yet again.

Well done Al tho, for making trading work for alot of people, congrats for that your a good man, and keep up the good work.
Really? You just started looking into it and had 3 trade that didn't work out and you decide its not going to work? If you are jumping from system to system every few days you will never settle down and actually learn things about trading. It's not just about the system, how can you learn to see patterns of the market when you are constantly changing the type of signal you are looking for.

Hopefully you will find a system that you can settle down with and stick to it for a bit longer.
  • #3,373
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:12am Mar 5, 2012 6:12am
Quoting SnailRoll
Really? You just started looking into it and had 3 trade that didn't work out and you decide its not going to work? If you are jumping from system to system every few days you will never settle down and actually learn things about trading. It's not just about the system, how can you learn to see patterns of the market when you are constantly changing the type of signal you are looking for.

Hopefully you will find a system that you can settle down with and stick to it for a bit longer.
You're quite right. You can't download a system and make a fortune....it's a shame you can't, but life isn't like that!! No matter how good the system is, you *must* know how to trade and understand the markets first. You cannot go any buy a comprehensive and expensive set of tools and become an instant motor mechanic. First, you need to know how motors work!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #3,374
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:22am Mar 5, 2012 6:22am
I have a live and a demo account with a particular platform and due to problems with the demo account I opened another demo with a different broker.

However the TMA slope is giving two different readings
On my original platform its reading (for Eur/Usd 15M) -0.92 and on the new demo platform its reading -1.04????

Can anyone shed some light on this for me please?
  • #3,375
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:22am Mar 5, 2012 6:22am
Ever E Man,
Look like you've got all the key elements of Al's system.
Yes I trade, almost full time too. It's not because I'm a pro( I'm a newbie), it's because I've developed a passion for trading.
I think Al's system beats lot of other systems with early entries. then trade with more generous SL's (if you use one) is essential specially with counter trend trades. I know recovery trades make perfect sense, but psychologically I need time to adopt this strategy. But I think Al is working on some other filters. Hope to hear some good news soon.
Wishing my last name were LESS
  • #3,376
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:41am Mar 5, 2012 6:41am
Bit of a newbie question here for anyone that wants to answer.

Looking at USD/CAD M15, price went through R3, hit R4 and is coming down, would R3 now turn into support? or would aiming for the top or middle line of the TMA still be a likely target?
  • #3,377
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:48am Mar 5, 2012 6:48am
Thanks Alorente - you opened my eyes on trading.
Now I do not loose any money - but make it, thanks to TMA Slope
Next time I'm in Madrid - I'm gonna the you Dolce Vita
  • #3,378
  • Edited 6:55am Mar 5, 2012 6:50am | Edited 6:55am
Quoting normtold
Bit of a newbie question here for anyone that wants to answer.

Looking at USD/CAD M15, price went through R3, hit R4 and is coming down, would R3 now turn into support? or would aiming for the top or middle line of the TMA still be a likely target?
I dont see great difference in price btween R3 and TMAmidline, and if price goes down its likely that they match. I guess you must watch whats will happen there...if price goes in stall there (midline or r3 ) better you take profit, if it pierces them in a couple of bars stay in.

This is my understanding till now....but hope someone more expert than me will give his opinion

THAT ABOVE IS ONLY BASED ON TECHNICAL CONSIDERATIONS. BUT HAVING IN MIND THE FUNDAMENTAL SPECULATIONS EXPOSED BY ALFREDO , YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE TAKEN THAT TRADE
  • #3,379
  • Mar 5, 2012 6:59am Mar 5, 2012 6:59am
Quoting corvogrigio
I dont see great difference in price btween R3 and TMAmidline, and if price goes down its likely that they match. I guess you must watch whats will happen there...if price goes in stall there (midline or r3 ) better you take profit, if it pierces them in a couple of bars stay in.

This is my understanding till now....but hope someone more expert than me will give his opinion

THAT ABOVE IS ONLY BASED ON TECHNICAL CONSIDERATIONS. BUT HAVING IN MIND THE FUNDAMENTAL SPECULATIONS EXPOSED BY ALFREDO , YOU SHOULDN'T HAVE TAKEN THAT TRADE
Thanks for the reply.

Yes the midline is approaching the R3 line.
You are correct I should not have taken the trade because of what Al said about Risk on.
But as a newbie I took the trade before Al commented on not going short on USD.

So I had already taken a position at R3 took another short at R4 later so overall the positions are profitable.

Just wondering in broken resistance can turn into support.
  • #3,380
  • Mar 5, 2012 7:03am Mar 5, 2012 7:03am
Anyone who is interested can make a group where anyone can put their chart and the live trading with this system .... can apply 200 participants ... all free

www.anymeeting.com
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