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Extreme TMA System

  • #3,321
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:25am Mar 5, 2012 3:25am
Quoting SnailRoll
Would you have enter these two at the round number or when HA turn red? I entered when HA turned red because I felt that it would be safer, but if entry was at round numbers we could get about 8 pips more.
I always enter at S/R or round number. The Heiken ashi color change is only if you are unsure , it serves as confirmation but you will make less pips.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,322
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:25am Mar 5, 2012 3:25am
Al, GBP/USD 15M, a few bars back price touched S1 once and boucned up a bit but did not make the center line (I did not take the trade) and price is coming back down to S".

Because the previous bounce was weak would you not be interested if price comes back to S2 again?

Or do you just play it by the 4 rules and take it despite the previous weak retracement?
  • #3,323
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:27am Mar 5, 2012 3:27am
Hi Al,

I understand that regarding the risk on, risk off scenario, I have been trading these markets for over 3 years now, so i understand how they work, im just concerned regarding the issues i raised about the tmaslope, changing to late to then enter a trade will be not a good risk/reward ratio.

The tmaslope slope to me looks like a divgerence indicator, so the examples in the GBPJPY, AUDJPY, where the indicator as been going up on the histogram, and price coming down, i am waiting for the slope to start going back down and the pa to go up.


Quoting Alorente
The system works friend but there are periods when all systems will be tested to the extremes. Iīve been saying for days now, to not go long the euro and not go short the Usd. We have entered a RISK OFF period. This applies to the Jpy also, even though to a smaller extent than the Usd.

Risk Off = Usd higher
Euro lower
Jpy higher
S&P500 lower
Gold lower
Oil lower
Gbp higher but not as much as Usd.

When you get into a Risk Off period, fear takes over and trading systems are pushed to extremes.
  • #3,324
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:31am Mar 5, 2012 3:31am
Quoting normtold
Al, GBP/USD 15M, a few bars back price touched S1 once and boucned up a bit but did not make the center line (I did not take the trade) and price is coming back down to S".

Because the previous bounce was weak would you not be interested if price comes back to S2 again?

Or do you just play it by the 4 rules and take it despite the previous weak retracement?
I repeat AGAIN. I am not taking any shorts on the Usd for this week. Fear is right now permeating the markets. This is a special situation. Please, be careful.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,325
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:40am Mar 5, 2012 3:40am
Closed the last open order I had from last week: S&P500 for +62 pips. That makes 34 wins in a row since the rules were changed. I said I will not post orders real time, but I will say I am short EurAud, EurCad and I continue short the large EurUsd position that I entered at 1.35 last week. First TP: 1.3000. I will evaluate at that point since there is support at the Coral (55 EMA) in my THV4 system. Ultimately, I expect EurUsd to test the low at 1.2625. When? Hard to say at this time.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,326
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:46am Mar 5, 2012 3:46am
hi alfredo,
please advise which currency pairs this system is best working ?
and does it work with GOLD . if yes is there any special settings for the TMA slope indicator..
  • #3,327
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:48am Mar 5, 2012 3:48am
Quoting omarjazaeri
hi alfredo,
please advise which currency pairs this system is best working ?
and does it work with GOLD . if yes is there any special settings for the TMA slope indicator..
This system is working in all pairs. Yes, it works fine with Gold, Oil, S&P500, etc. I have not tested it with individual stocks yet.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,328
  • Edited 3:54am Mar 5, 2012 3:50am | Edited 3:54am
What about longing this pair?

I think it, s a wonderful setup everything ok but the slope value at the moment (-0.53) . Anyway its raising steeply and price is way off tma band in multiple time frames (Up to H4 slightly) and stalling over S4 since 3/4 bars.

I'd appreciate your comments and hindsights


Adding a picture
  • #3,329
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:50am Mar 5, 2012 3:50am
Quoting Alorente
The system works friend but there are periods when all systems will be tested to the extremes. Iīve been saying for days now, to not go long the euro and not go short the Usd. We have entered a RISK OFF period. This applies to the Jpy also, even though to a smaller extent than the Usd.

Risk Off = Usd higher
Euro lower
Jpy higher
S&P500 lower
Gold lower
Oil lower
Gbp higher but not as much as Usd.

When you get into a Risk Off period, fear takes over and trading...
Therefore, we should expect to the price of the pairs whose base currency is dollar are above the upper band, and below the upper band the pairs whose base currency is the euro.
  • #3,330
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:51am Mar 5, 2012 3:51am
Quoting corvogrigio
What about longing this pair?

I think it, s a wonderful setup everything ok but the slope value at the moment (-0.53) . Anyway its raising steeply and price is way off tma band in multiple time frames (Up to H4 slightly) and stalling over S4 since 3/4 bars.

I'd appreciate your comments and hindsights
Read my post above about Risk Off.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,331
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:53am Mar 5, 2012 3:53am
Quoting lologo
Therefore, we should expect to the price of the pairs whose base currency is dollar are above the upper band, and below the upper band the pairs whose base currency is the euro.
Correct.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,332
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:55am Mar 5, 2012 3:55am
Ever E Man,
When I compile the file I intended to post it when done, so I was selecting for everyone, include all the newbies and oldbies. Sometimes little tip makes a huge difference.
flaw
Wishing my last name were LESS
  • #3,333
  • Mar 5, 2012 3:55am Mar 5, 2012 3:55am
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  • #3,334
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:02am Mar 5, 2012 4:02am
Quoting Alorente
Read my post above about Risk Off.
Ah oops ok ..I missed it indeed...

Anyway - putting aside the risk off period - it would have been a very nice set up as soon that slope had surged over -0.50.

Am i right Al ?
  • #3,335
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:05am Mar 5, 2012 4:05am
Quoting corvogrigio
Ah oops ok ..I missed it indeed...

Anyway - putting aside the risk off period - it would have been a very nice set up as soon that slope had surged over -0.50.

Am i right Al ?
Yes. You are correct.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,336
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:10am Mar 5, 2012 4:10am
Is it normal for trades to go against you at the start? How long does it usually take to reach middle or opposite band? As a new trader sometimes I am not sure what to do when the trade goes 10pips against me and I end up closing it thinking it will keep running. Which I know is a bad thing as I am not use to having trade run for longer period of time.

Guess this is where building confidence in the system really comes in.
  • #3,337
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:13am Mar 5, 2012 4:13am
Quoting flaw
Mike, Have you received the file yet? I just want to make sure that I'm sending it correctly. Frank
Frank, I received it, thank you so very much!
Gentlemen always play by the rules. If they can't, they change the rules.
  • #3,338
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:14am Mar 5, 2012 4:14am
Quoting SnailRoll
Is it normal for trades to go against you at the start? How long does it usually take to reach middle or opposite band? As a new trader sometimes I am not sure what to do when the trade goes 10pips against me and I end up closing it thinking it will keep running. Which I know is a bad thing as I am not use to having trade run for longer period of time.

Guess this is where building confidence in the system really comes in.
Yes. Building confidence is key. Thatīs why you should master the system before investing with real money. It is perfectly normal to have the trade go against you at the beginning. 10 pips against you is nothing in a system that captures changes in trend like this one.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #3,339
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:16am Mar 5, 2012 4:16am
Quoting Alorente
I repeat AGAIN. I am not taking any shorts on the Usd for this week. Fear is right now permeating the markets. This is a special situation. Please, be careful.
I am finding a few trade set ups developing according to the 4 rules but if I am only looking to long the USD, JPY and short the EUR none of them are viable.
  • #3,340
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:16am Mar 5, 2012 4:16am
Quoting Alorente
Yes. You are correct.
Risk Off =

Usd higher
Euro lower
Jpy higher
S&P500 lower
Gold lower
Oil lower
Gbp higher but not as much as Usd.

Another question if you have time

Under those conditions would mean that we can still trade usdjpy gbpjpy and gbpusd in both directions if rules are met (maybe wanting to be a bit cautious in longing gbpusd) ???

Thank a million if you can clarify this
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