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AUD/USD

  • #41,341
  • Mar 4, 2012 8:14pm Mar 4, 2012 8:14pm
Quoting sidhujag
When I code EA"s I tend to avoid Fridays and Mondays... usually unpredictable
i see, now i really don't know what to do. the PA looks weird and i'm -17 pips on a monday morning, doesn't feel good.

want to jump in again!!!!! but i know this is my emotion controlling me...
  • #41,342
  • Mar 4, 2012 8:35pm Mar 4, 2012 8:35pm
Quoting happytrader
i see, now i really don't know what to do. the PA looks weird and i'm -17 pips on a monday morning, doesn't feel good.

want to jump in again!!!!! but i know this is my emotion controlling me...
Lol, don't jump in. Call it a day or wait until NewYork open and play the first 4hrs, this is as prime time as it gets. Because of the NY and London overlap.
  • #41,343
  • Mar 4, 2012 8:40pm Mar 4, 2012 8:40pm
Quoting Rokz
This is my layout for the 5min screen. The daily layout is super basic and only has one MA.
Good morning Humans
Sorry chart not show clearly where is R1?
  • #41,344
  • Mar 4, 2012 9:10pm Mar 4, 2012 9:10pm
Quoting Rokz
Lol, don't jump in. Call it a day or wait until NewYork open and play the first 4hrs, this is as prime time as it gets. Because of the NY and London overlap.
thanks...
  • #41,345
  • Mar 4, 2012 9:21pm Mar 4, 2012 9:21pm
Trying Swing short Aussie @ 1.0720 SL 1.0820 Risk 2% TP : Open
If there was easy money lying around,no one would be forcing it into your
  • #41,346
  • Mar 4, 2012 9:30pm Mar 4, 2012 9:30pm
My Chart..
AUDUSD/Time: H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen shot 2012-03-05 at 8.57.03 AM.jpg Size: 129 KB
  • #41,347
  • Mar 4, 2012 9:58pm Mar 4, 2012 9:58pm
sportsbet give an odd of 1.1 that interest stay the same and 4.4 that it decreases up to 25 basis point

I guess the market agree that RBA will not cut interest this month

However, I'm quite sure that RBA will cut interest by next month the latest
Economic data show that it is not as good as expected

but who knows, last month they surprise the market, will they do it again?
  • #41,348
  • Mar 4, 2012 10:15pm Mar 4, 2012 10:15pm
Quoting grandia
sportsbet give an odd of 1.1 that interest stay the same and 4.4 that it decreases up to 25 basis point

I guess the market agree that RBA will not cut interest this month

However, I'm quite sure that RBA will cut interest by next month the latest
Economic data show that it is not as good as expected

but who knows, last month they surprise the market, will they do it again?
They'll stay on hold again. Won't be a surprise, it's already priced in. We'll probably see a small 10-30 pip move up before declining again. More importantly is the rba minutes statement after which will have more effect
  • #41,349
  • Mar 4, 2012 10:27pm Mar 4, 2012 10:27pm
Aussie is higher now than before the interest rate cut last year.
  • #41,350
  • Mar 4, 2012 10:43pm Mar 4, 2012 10:43pm
interesting to see if 1.07 holds when europe/ny wakes up
  • #41,351
  • Mar 4, 2012 11:19pm Mar 4, 2012 11:19pm
took small short at re-test of monthly pivot

see how far it wants to go
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.jpg Size: 166 KB
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #41,352
  • Mar 4, 2012 11:41pm Mar 4, 2012 11:41pm
Quoting happytrader
i see, now i really don't know what to do. the PA looks weird and i'm -17 pips on a monday morning, doesn't feel good.

want to jump in again!!!!! but i know this is my emotion controlling me...
Why did you jump in during monday asian? There's still 4 trading days and besides daily already shows a likely peak
  • #41,353
  • Mar 4, 2012 11:47pm Mar 4, 2012 11:47pm
Quoting jayjb
Why did you jump in during monday asian? There's still 4 trading days and besides daily already shows a likely peak
i didn't trade aussie today. bloody euro, bloody hell. +25 pips , ended up +2 on BE. damn this frankfurt shit.
  • #41,354
  • Mar 5, 2012 12:21am Mar 5, 2012 12:21am
Down we go..

See if we can reach 1.065, and then 1.06. Looking to go long around those levels of support
  • #41,355
  • Mar 5, 2012 12:22am Mar 5, 2012 12:22am
Quoting happytrader
i didn't trade aussie today. bloody euro, bloody hell. +25 pips , ended up +2 on BE. damn this frankfurt shit.
I see, well good luck for the rest of the week!
  • #41,356
  • Mar 5, 2012 1:09am Mar 5, 2012 1:09am
1.0648, target 1.0722, then look for break of 1.0722, retest as support to long again from 1.0722 support
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie big pic4.jpg Size: 180 KB
  • #41,357
  • Mar 5, 2012 1:15am Mar 5, 2012 1:15am
AUD/USD go up now I'm sure of that
  • #41,358
  • Mar 5, 2012 1:22am Mar 5, 2012 1:22am
It's not the AUD that is down, it's the USD going up

take a look at other pairs

the problem is: what causes USD to rise?
  • #41,359
  • Edited 1:45am Mar 5, 2012 1:34am | Edited 1:45am
markets don't go in a straight line, the usd/jpy dropped pretty good, you have to expect dips and rallies in the markets, where to anticipate them, all funny mentals conform to technical analysis.

you should'nt care what makes the market move as much as where the market is going to. Once you identify those areas, with multiple fibs, you sit on your hands and wait for your signal, letting price come to you....=)

If you wrong, guess what? your not out any pips, and your not chasing the market, if you right you make 100 pips or more. I don;t even look at the news!

Another thing to consider is the markets have to move first beofre you can calculate where they are going, blindly snagging 10-20 pips will eat you alive. why trade chop, it's there for one reason to drain your acount let price breakout then do your work.

Quoting grandia
It's not the AUD that is down, it's the USD going up

take a look at other pairs

the problem is: what causes USD to rise?
  • #41,360
  • Mar 5, 2012 1:37am Mar 5, 2012 1:37am
IMHO the real issue wasn't with USD. It was the JPY short covering ahead of the NFP on friday
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