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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #16,141
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:55am Mar 1, 2012 3:55am
Quoting strat
That's what happens when cheese makers interfere with things they know nothing about!

Not a trace of doubt in my mind
Said I'm a believer...

Today, a sad day, indeed.

Now:

Hard not to believe in the power of PASR.

Always thought that August high was the clean out before a massive retrace. Charts back 20+ years show the 100 as critical resistance and 107 as potential turning point.

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Now that the "retrace" is over, I have been long from 80 to critical level at 91 ish. Closed most of my longs (but still holding a small amount, with tightened stop). Looking to get back long on any significant retrace towards the 82 level.

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  • #16,142
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:13am Mar 1, 2012 4:13am
Quoting trogger
Hi There bj.


i just saw this pair as bearish so i don't want to take any trade that will be against the trend.
I think you probably know that you are early on the short. If you are waiting for a signal in accordance with this thread to short, then it hasn't happened yet.

Strat's post is letting you know that there is still plenty of potential upside.

I am stopped below the pink rectangle . The pink rectangle will certainly break - but will it be down?
And, if I am stopped, that doesn't mean that I will go short....

Ah, the moment of truth for the Kiwi! It can't fly. It only comes out at night and it has no real defence against its many predators!

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Let us see what happens!
  • #16,143
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:23am Mar 1, 2012 4:23am
I paid for my ticket!
So, do I really have to get out and push?
Or is this thing going to chug on through to "station 69" ?

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  • #16,144
  • Mar 1, 2012 8:11am Mar 1, 2012 8:11am
Not a trace of doubt in my mind
Said I'm a believer...

Today, a sad day, indeed.

You got that right, Wild Thing!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17214430

You're doing GREAT - I'm glad someone believes!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,145
  • Mar 2, 2012 6:56am Mar 2, 2012 6:56am
Quoting trogger
I paid for my ticket!
So, do I really have to get out and push?
Or is this thing going to chug on through to "station 69" ?

Attachment
You are at resistance already IMHO
  • #16,146
  • Mar 2, 2012 12:01pm Mar 2, 2012 12:01pm
Quoting Alexandra
Just reviewing a few posts to see if any of those espousing the fall of USD are still breathing.
Listening....I see little mention of USDJPY. Another good sign for the long side as the technical picture grows stronger.
  • #16,147
  • Mar 3, 2012 9:09am Mar 3, 2012 9:09am
I paid for my ticket!
So, do I really have to get out and push?
Or is this thing going to chug on through to "station 69" ?

I would definitely get out but I wouldn't push - The Big Boss is hard at resistance and most JPY pairs will probably see profit taking as we get nearer the end of March.

Remember, Japan's fiscal year ends in March so they will repatriate the yen to keep everyone happy.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,148
  • Mar 3, 2012 9:13am Mar 3, 2012 9:13am
Quoting trogger
Ah, the moment of truth for the Kiwi! It can't fly. It only comes out at night and it has no real defence against its many predators!

Attachment

Let us see what happens!
A drop down to 0.7950 or maybe 0.76 if the sellers have their way before the next move up.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,149
  • Mar 3, 2012 9:18am Mar 3, 2012 9:18am
Quoting trogger
Not a trace of doubt in my mind
Said I'm a believer...

Today, a sad day, indeed.

Now:

Hard not to believe in the power of PASR.

Always thought that August high was the clean out before a massive retrace. Charts back 20+ years show the 100 as critical resistance and 107 as potential turning point.

Attachment

Attachment

Now that the "retrace" is over, I have been long from 80 to critical level at 91 ish. Closed most of my longs (but still holding a small amount, with tightened stop). Looking...
Right on, Wild Thing. 91.50 looks like the end of the road but Japan could just squeeze it to 93 for fiscal year end but it will likely be a one night stand.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,150
  • Mar 4, 2012 6:05am Mar 4, 2012 6:05am
As for that Euro/pound, I confess to having had a short bias for sometime. 85 is pretty clearly a possible (probable?) reaction area and I went short off lower order time frames.

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Attachment [/quote]

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  • #16,151
  • Mar 4, 2012 6:17am Mar 4, 2012 6:17am
Quoting trogger
I paid for my ticket!
So, do I really have to get out and push?
Or is this thing going to chug on through to "station 69" ?

Attachment
Thanks for the advice Strat and Money Magnet. I had actually closed the trade Friday afternoon, straight after posting, as I was expecting the pullback to quite likely start before the close for the week. Guess I will just have to go fishing - don't expact that buy limit to be hit anytime soon!
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  • #16,152
  • Mar 4, 2012 12:42pm Mar 4, 2012 12:42pm
The weekly and daily price action could portend further weakness for the next few weeks at least. The bear PA on Cable and EurUsd point to USD strength which is also gold negative. The immediate weekly gold trend is down, but one could argue this is a bear flag when viewed on the monthly or yearly charts.
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #16,153
  • Mar 4, 2012 1:07pm Mar 4, 2012 1:07pm
everyone on the planet reckons it will be weak next week.
technical analysis of a weekly candle and some fibs etc.
everyone is looking at that daily trend line on dollar index etc,
gold sold of because of Benny B's comments Wednesday flushed
out weak longs easy pickings for the banks.

gold went from 1522 to 1800 more or less since the beginning of the year
no retrace so thats around a 2800 point move. its gone down around 800-900
points last week
rat
  • #16,154
  • Mar 4, 2012 2:05pm Mar 4, 2012 2:05pm
PMs are a crowded trade but I know what you mean Rattyo. One could argue that smart money will 'fade' the weekly set-ups if they are that obvious. It's worthy of note that gold managed to trigger the breakout traders on that last low but only by a few points before reversing and rallying. I would imagine that many people got burnt there...

Eq's don't show any signs of weakness and the 'bots just keep buying each dip while the headlines are devoid of Euro/Iran gloom. Once the headlines and wires start reporting a few key words the 'bots will be selling no doubt!

Still, the weekly charts are a more powerful signal than the lower TFs that the banks' day traders mess about on!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #16,155
  • Mar 5, 2012 2:23am Mar 5, 2012 2:23am
Quoting strat
A drop down to 0.7950 or maybe 0.76 if the sellers have their way before the next move up.
I entered these friday night, after posting.

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  • #16,156
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:42am Mar 5, 2012 4:42am
SS on the big boss.
Anyone?
  • #16,157
  • Mar 5, 2012 4:59am Mar 5, 2012 4:59am
Quoting trogger
I entered these friday night, after posting.

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The "Preying Mantis" set-up:

"sniff"


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Slurp!

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Yum!

Any more left?
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  • #16,158
  • Mar 5, 2012 11:55am Mar 5, 2012 11:55am
Quoting trogger
SS on the big boss.
Anyone?
That's the 10th month at this level and that's a strong trend from June 2010 which I don't like to fight. It hasn't started going down yet.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,159
  • Mar 5, 2012 11:58am Mar 5, 2012 11:58am
Quoting trogger
The "Preying Mantis" set-up:

"sniff"


Attachment

Slurp!

Attachment

Yum!

Any more left?
At the Wobble area now - hold tight!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #16,160
  • Edited 4:01pm Mar 5, 2012 3:39pm | Edited 4:01pm
"I call this.......

Quoting trogger

The "Preying Mantis" set-up:
Could you please post details.

Looks more like "barbed wire" to me.

Possibly the end of an excellent trade-able up trend; which has run of steam, before moving to the downside.

From your posted charts, it seems that you entered before the 2 March BEEB, which engulfed (approximately) the previous 13 bars.

Was it the long wick on the 29 February inverted hammer which convinced you that it was time to take counter trend positions and to sell NZDUSD?

It would be very helpful if you could share your reasoning and the timing of your short entries.

Thanks, Roger
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
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