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  • #5,841
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:27am Mar 1, 2012 3:27am
This is all speculation and no one is ever 100% right but to me 4 hour time frame also suggest a long.

Key level broken at 1.33 on the 23rd and price has gone down from yesterday to retest break of 1.33 resistance level. Price action is making higher highs. So probability suggests long. For timeframes > H1.
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  • #5,842
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:29am Mar 1, 2012 3:29am
yea, a retracement might be going on.. There's too huge a down move yesterday.. The bears needed a breather.. A downtrend might continue when ny session starts.
  • #5,843
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:32am Mar 1, 2012 3:32am
Quoting nonfiction
This is all speculation and no one is ever 100% right but to me 4 hour time frame also suggest a long.

Key level broken at 1.33 on the 23rd and price has gone down from yesterday to retest break of 1.33 resistance level. Price action is making higher highs. So probability suggests long. For timeframes > H1.
Thats right it almost look like it will go long on H4, however if you look at TDI red on H4 you'll see it slopes down in an extreme angle, which is often a bad sign for going long.TDI green also way below MBL(yellow).
Stoch 8.3.3 oversold though but it can stay like that easily another day.
  • #5,844
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:35am Mar 1, 2012 3:35am
I am also looking at the H4 chart. PA can't get pass 60EMA and TDI already break through the bands which is super oversold.

Well anyway, we shall see where it gonna head, we can't predict the future.
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  • #5,845
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:36am Mar 1, 2012 3:36am
Good point and your quite right and you could be right.

Have a look at the yellow dotted line and see how the green bounces of the red. I would agree with you if I would see green break through the yellow and red. Just helps me to confirm a bit more.

But having said that, your also right.

Quoting sarmatius
Thats right it almost look like it will go long on H4, however if you look at TDI red on H4 you'll see it slopes down in an extreme angle, which is often a bad sign for going long.TDI green also way below MBL(yellow).
Stoch 8.3.3 oversold though but it can stay like that easily another day.
Attached Image
  • #5,846
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:39am Mar 1, 2012 3:39am
Just a heads up on this, not strictly x-mans way or big EEs way but it's been giving good wins all week - I've added in a bit of prior knowledge. Caught yesterdays big drop on EU very well, although the news gave me heebie geebies - came 2 pips over my 'close the trade' line before dropping like a stone.

Cable setting up for long.

H4 chart
http://i1236.photobucket.com/albums/.../settingup.jpg

M15 chart, high broken out of, downchannel broken out of, now wait for the pullback and enter off the 15 if H4 looks good at that point

http://i1236.photobucket.com/albums/...tingupon15.jpg

You then have two choices, either hold based on the synergy bars on H4, or plot the channel as it develops on M15 and get out if a swing low or the channel is breached.

Just a little something to help with timing as if you're playing the H4 off a big Synergy entry bar the drawdown is often very large as it gets you in right at the top of the swing on the M15 before the pullback.

Wherther I'll take this yet I'm not 100% sure - the reasons: M15 momentum breakout above the swing high is not great, we are nearing the top so while this is a 'with trend move it may not go too far.

I await developments.
  • #5,847
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:45am Mar 1, 2012 3:45am
Quoting EvoPips
I am also looking at the H4 chart. PA can't get pass 60EMA and TDI already break through the bands which is super oversold.

Well anyway, we shall see where it gonna head, we can't predict the future.
Yup thats a good argument in favour of a long at the next H4 candle.The green has crossed outside volatility band and it doesnt like to stay much there.I'd simply wait
  • #5,848
  • Mar 1, 2012 3:45am Mar 1, 2012 3:45am
And then,

A bully called "News" walks into the casino and says give me your pips or I'll hit you! A few spot him and hide, the others get their pips taken away.

He then says, I'll be back in a few days! You better watch out.

USD unemployment claims in 3:45 hours. Could make or break anyones theory.
  • #5,849
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:02am Mar 1, 2012 4:02am
Quoting vcary
Please josh, where is the red candle wo is engulfed?

Best regards
vcary
29/2 @6am candle If you look at the open and close of candle it engulf most of the asia range...

hope that help
  • #5,850
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:06am Mar 1, 2012 4:06am
For those looking for EU longs, this is based purely off TDI, I've not even considered S/D areas:

H4: Low breached and momentum down so any long trade likely to be only a scalp back up to s becomes r - how far has it got to go?
http://i1236.photobucket.com/albums/...foreulongs.jpg

M15:
No long there until Asia high breached and pulled back and it has nowhere to go
http://i1236.photobucket.com/albums/...15minscalp.jpg


On this one my money would be on waiting for the retrace up to be over then look for short.
  • #5,851
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:24am Mar 1, 2012 4:24am
Quoting nunrgguy
For those looking for EU longs, this is based purely off TDI, I've not even considered S/D areas:

H4: Low breached and momentum down so any long trade likely to be only a scalp back up to s becomes r - how far has it got to go?

On this one my money would be on waiting for the retrace up to be over then look for short.
My opinion too, H4 can be just a short lived bull move, good for a scalp, confirming the general bear move.
Looking at your H4 picture the double top is also very evident and looking at that alone you figure out that the bear move hasn't run its course to the end yet.
  • #5,852
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:34am Mar 1, 2012 4:34am
I was long right after the wonderful pullback candle at LO. Took +20pips ... there is a strong resistance area on 1H (200EMA) and 15min.. also the privot levels..

I think a bullish flag is formin and during NY Open the fall will continue..
Also there a lot of news today.. again mr. bernake will give his 2 cents :-)

Happy pipping!
  • #5,853
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:43am Mar 1, 2012 4:43am
Do you see divergence on H1 EU?
  • #5,854
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:47am Mar 1, 2012 4:47am
Guys, take care.. the 60SMA is coming and the 60EMA is already acting as a support!

Happy Pipping
  • #5,855
  • Mar 1, 2012 4:49am Mar 1, 2012 4:49am
Quoting IenDzi
Do you see divergence on H1 EU?
Yes .. thats why i ran out of the trade and took my 20pips ..

afaik a new pullback is forming..
  • #5,856
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:00am Mar 1, 2012 5:00am
Quoting Sender
Yes .. thats why i ran out of the trade and took my 20pips ..

afaik a new pullback is forming..
I scalped a few long as well... I see a zig zag forming to the upside ...High-Low and now higher low forming .....lets see??
  • #5,857
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:01am Mar 1, 2012 5:01am
Quoting Sender
Yes .. thats why i ran out of the trade and took my 20pips ..

afaik a new pullback is forming..
not just that. i see bottom reversal. probably i will take long entry soon for a few pips (from retracement) . if you see from h4 . you will see the price is retrace on 38.2 fib probably going for 50-60 pips then go back down. probably signal will appear in the new h4 candle. but not sure myself. how other seniors think?
  • #5,858
  • Edited 5:23am Mar 1, 2012 5:07am | Edited 5:23am
Hi,

After yesterday's surprise sell-off and several econ data release today, market is in pause mode.
After the leap year Feb bonus yesterday, many traders with some wins in their pocket tend to become trigger happy.
Many system traders will see all kinds of signals using their indicators based systems, putting in buy orders and sell orders.
All these orders are piled up and waiting for the next move later. Many stops will be taken out so you have to see where the price action is and be on the right side.

When the use of TDI does not give any clear hint of direction, best thing to do is take eyes off the TDI,for a while and see where the support and resistance zones are really.

>sell on short rally and buy on dip.

Trade with caution always.
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #5,859
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:16am Mar 1, 2012 5:16am
Good morning X-Man and all traders!
I have a problem with the system SL-TP I noticed while backtesting.
S3 rules state that SL should be placed at most recent swing high/low.
TPs should be 1:1 & 1:2.
Anyway for as long as I could backtest TP expectancy under normal conditions is 25-30 pips.
As tight as the Asian range may be (30 pips at minimum), and considering we have to wait for a break of at least 5 pips before entering, we have a SL:TP of 35:30 in best conditions, which is still lower than 1:1.
Did I screwed up numbers or do you get same conditions?
If so how do you manage that?
I know that with a system with a high win probability the R:R is less important, just wanted to know if I am missing something.
Tanks people!
  • #5,860
  • Mar 1, 2012 5:37am Mar 1, 2012 5:37am
I know this is a late call and can't do a screen shot from OANDA but took the long on cable @ 5945. Slighly in drawdown atm
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