Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

Yes... news out of the UK has been generally good as of late. Of course, we all know the numbers are fudged, but why try to push against the crowd carrying the money?

I'm not sure but I'm setting a small long off this hourly bar. I'm still not convinced Europe is much worse off than anywhere else.

........In deed......

Gentlemen, please, you are killing off my optimism for EG short.

.........In deed to that as well, me eather, I don't think we are any bether, no........
........I just follow the money like 45condor say, I have a small short on the franc as well to compensate with the yurow shorts.........

...can't watch, need coffee...

I mean no harm, I just speak the true........what I see, I'm not usualy right anyways.........

.........lol........

It fell a bit hard yesterday so might range for a while longer? Not sure but I also have shorts set off this level.

Yes, agree, and in addition to the news yesterday, I’ve always remembered, but never acted upon nor researched too much, something that was mentioned once in the EU thread about fund exchanges between the UK and Europe on the last day of every month. I must do some back testing on this, as I have seen good moves on many a last day of the month.

Reason for today’s trade is suspicion that irrespective of news, Cable is heading north, and the EU summit for the remainder of the week may stifle any large EU moves. That, and a pennant-type PA on EG at the moment, which I think will break south, and will be tandem with the Guppy profile inversion on the four hour, and which is already underway on the one hour.

Today is also another big day, as the wife’s new horse will be rode for the first time… so thankfully, will be able to get away from the charts this afternoon.

Hey Chonchy good luck with the bikes - I've just been looking back through them. Not sure what FF's rules are on advertising your new bike business. Hehe - You may be relegated to the commercial "under evaluation" section. Now that would be bad.

Very ethical and upright though. Also, in Florida, there are no hills, but lots of flat roads interspersed with water. A bit like the Netherlands where bikes are massively popular. I also like the gadgets and I think these bikes could become fashionable.

Come on!!! Up a pip - yeah...

Do you mean it will be broken in? Who will do that?

The stables purchased from are very good, and normally ride a 2-year old for a few months, before leaving in a field until four, and then rode again in order to see how much the horse remembers... kind of a test to the standard of the horse, I think. To be honest, I'm not the best person to discuss this with.

Broken in - no, I do not think so, but my wife will try today, along with a professional. I'm just going along to see if it throws her - but don't tell her that or I'll be cooking over the weekend as punishment.

Update - 3 pips... I'm on a roll.

Haha. Cooking's a pleasure - we share it. I see a hold here on Eur/Gbp because of the crude bull flag on the weekly and so I will be adding if we get a bounce off .8340. Not sure... (See how I am no longer sure) And if we break .8240, the sky is the limit, or should I say, the centre of the earth?

This is what I have so far in the way of charts.

0.8270 FE level in the next week or so - would be nice.

Just need Chonchy's aqua MA to hold, and for Cable to shoot... not asking for too much, am I?

Thanks for posting the charts. As I actually (inadvertently) started a thread on this pair I thought I should post mine there as well. Here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post5434008

Back from the stables to see the EG short didn't really move that much.

Also read that ISDA rules that there will be no issurance payout on CDS insurance.

Therefore, I cut the trade for twenty-ish and prepare to fight another day.

Just been reading this:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...818586,00.html

…and it got me a thinking – again I hear people groan.

Well yes, because it’s all a game of deferment whilst Merk the Berk positions herself on that side which will court favour with re-election – and if this means jumping into bed with the blunt teeth of Wolfgang Schauble, then so be it, I think. Word on the street is that they cannot stand each other, but will share a leaking Frankfurter if both are satisfied – erm, excuse me for that innuendo… I may very well barf in a moment.

Anyway, moving quickly on. Merk has been frigidly opposed – oops, there I go again – to any increase in the Euro firewall, that is until I read the article aforementioned in the link. Now, this fund may rise from 500B Euro to 750B Euro. Yeah, I know, where in the world is this going to come from? What, what’s that you say? China and Japan… hmm, maybe, and I’ll bet they’ll be falling over themselves to contribute, but only if certain conditions are met. Why she has buckled so far off from the Greek repayment date of March 20th is something of a mystery for me, but I guess she knew that the International Swaps and Derivatives Association would not trigger a CDS insurance rush today… and hey, with those with a voting right in this hotbed of putrid pirates being comprised of the very banks that caused our current global situation, is it any wonder?

So, Merk has most likely rattled a few composures in the German banking community, and, well, further vexed a lot more German taxpayers today. So why start to hint that you may expand the firewall, which not only perturbs the folks back home, but unsettles a market that seemingly needs a greater and greater dose of valium in order not to lose it completely?

As I have mentioned previously, apparent rumour on the floors of the trading houses is that Greece will not meet the repayment levels on March 20th, and that plans are afoot to declare a default on Greece on Friday evening of the 23rd of March. I don’t think anyone will be surprised with the expectation of default, but the declaration date, I wager, is pencilled in on every central banker’s calendar, and also Christine-I double speak corporate parlance nonsense because in truth I haven’t got a clue what is going on, but got my new job at the IMF because I was the right kind of candidate-Largarde’s. So, the question for me is how will Asia decide to contribute? My opinion – and that is all it is as I am not privy to inside information – is that the increase in the firewall is in preparation for a default, and better to get it into the public domain now, and then implemented as quick as possible in order to be ready for the latter part of March.

This extra dosh settles the nerves of the bankers, makes Merk the berk appear wise to the public, and allows Obama-banana and Timmy-tantrum to get rid of baggage they no longer want pulling on the loan line from the FED. And this brings me to the bondholders: if they know extra money is there, they will most likely go with the politicians as this would probably ensure better – or at least a known as opposed to unknown in the event of a chaotic default – return on their holdings.

Penultimately: why would Merk suddenly volt face? Hmm, perhaps because if she truly believed that a bailout for Greece would be successful, she wouldn’t add an extra 250B Euro to a fund that she thought would not be needed. If she had asked anyone here, we could have told her long ago that the true numbers for tax collection, manufacturing and so on and son in Greece is far worse than ‘officially’ expected. Sadly, Greece has just been thrown back 50 years in time.

Finally: Nice going idiots in positions of power around Europe and farther afield. You’ve just blown a trillion in Euros, achieved little of what you aimed for, undermined democracy directly in two European sovereign states, made the rest even more corrupt than they already were, and sent inflation for the rest of us plebeians to such a level that I’m beginning to see an awful lot more beggars in the cities around Europe.

I should also mention that I am beginning to suspect that in some convoluted relationship of inverted proportionality, a default of Greece would be good for the Euro – even if only for a short period of time before the rest of the PIIGS trot along to insolvency - as money that is currently waiting to get in, will be encouraged to do so, and a default will, if faith is restored in the Euro, assist the US in keeping the dollar weak in order to help out there. Of course, inflation would cut that deficit down, but those dudes, and dudesses (is that a word) that pay their taxes also carry guns, and won’t be impressed if the price of gas becomes much higher.

Us chaps in Europe have wine bottles and beer glasses, and whilst able to inflict serious injury if broken to create a weapon, are still ineffective against a state-sanction projectile screaming towards one at almost 700mph.