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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #10,721
  • Edited 9:37am Feb 24, 2012 9:05am | Edited 9:37am
Saxon

I like to see a long/extended journey that PA had to go on to get to these levels. Since it's overextended and gernally a steep angle, only minimal resistance would been needed to send it in the other direction.

I like to think of it like a Marathon Runner. Think of Support/Resistance as being a physical push to the runner at various distances during the race. At the end of 3 miles, if you give that runner a physical push, chances are you are not going to knock him over, just piss them off. On the other hand, attempting to push them over at mile 20 will be pretty easy.They are still moving forward, however, they require much lest resistance to push over.


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awesome post

thankyou

GU seems to be doing this nicely with a 200 + pip move up the last couple of days.

..........................................................................

last chart for today

US dollar index has taken out daily lows at 78.38. the 3 weekly lows levels now come into play at 78.27 and 78.07. Also GU has just hit 1.5872 in the last 5 mins.

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shorted GU at 1.5874
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  • #10,722
  • Feb 25, 2012 4:12am Feb 25, 2012 4:12am
Quoting ianlikesgolf
..Hey Ian, were are u getting your live UD Index charts..??Best Dan C

...............................................
try this. its the one I use from http://www.forexltd.co.uk/en/trade/mt4/

it doesnt show the USDX until you go

in top menu: View ---> Market Watch ---> Right click: Show All

then its good to go.

it didnt work on AU , but EU is perfect. along with the dia (dow)
when its open in US hours.

I did notice with AU though that when EU and GU have a genuine move AU follows along too normally.
Ian... Thanks a lot.. Dan C
  • #10,723
  • Feb 26, 2012 7:46pm Feb 26, 2012 7:46pm
Quoting Saxon
Here's an off-the-topic question for everyone. To break up the boredom.

Do you think that your trading and "Educated Gambling" in the Forex market have made you better Vegas Gamblers ? Like, for me, my blackjack still sucks, but my poker is awesome. I judge my opponents and betting strategy completely different.
Laugh if you must but I can clean up on slots at my local casino. There has to be a probability factor at work-based on "hits."
  • #10,724
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:40pm Feb 26, 2012 9:40pm
Quoting calderone
Laugh if you must but I can clean up on slots at my local casino. There has to be a probability factor at work-based on "hits."
The last time I was in Vegas I sat around and watched the slots for 2 hours while drinking my favorite Jack and Coke.... I had an idea and then put it to work. I hit the jackpot 3 times on the cherry slots and decided it was time to leave. Then I went to the Bahamas and put my idea to work again on the same cherry slot machines... hit the jackpot 2 times and left with my winnings. You have to remember that these machines are computers and therefore programmed by humans. I spent 8 years as a technology director at a large University so I have a little experience with computers... there is a way to win at slots just like everything else in this world! Persistence does pay!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #10,725
  • Feb 27, 2012 5:02am Feb 27, 2012 5:02am
Good Morning Traders….
Am I the only one LONG-TERM-BEAR left in this room?
Attached Image



Despite hurrah-optimism on all stocks & FX markets last week, I’m remaining bearish on my mid-term and long-term Eurodollar charts.
It doesn’t mean I have already opened any SHROTs, not at all, but definitely, I am NOT getting into any LONGs.
As they say, trend is your friend, until the end, and on my charts this end is very, very close.

DAILY
For those loving S/R lines and Fibonacci, have a look on DAILY:
There is a nice descending resistance line drawn down from last year August high, thru October highs (GREEN LINE) which now can be a reasonable motivation for bears to attack and stop bulls from further appreciation. It ideally covers with congestion of other important Fibo levels and previous S/R lines too. But this supply zone is a little above existing highs, somewhere between 1,35500-1,3600 so I expect bulls attacking 1.3500 area again.
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OSCILATORS
For those loving oscillators we have them all on OVERBOUGHT levels for quite a long time, desperately asking to get some fresh air… We need some correction soon, which can possibly turn to trend reversal after all.

FUNDAMENTALS
On the fundamental side, I don’t think Eurozone would stay so optimistic all the time, and we’ve got some dead rabbits in the hat waiting to be recovered soon.

WEEKLY – long term perspective
In a very long term, I am seriously looking down on 1.2600 hit within next 3 months.
Certainly, there are loads of obstacles on its way down and this can change throughout the time, but at the moment the “energy” and “marker strength” favors falling down. Who knows, maybe with eyes even on 1.1800 in a distance.
This is for those loving harmonic patterns, please have a look on possible AB-CD pattern. If price finds strong resistance and bounces back from 1.3550-1,3600 area, and then breaks out thru 1.2600, this would generate an classical model of ABCD pattern, with ideally equal AB and CD legs, with leg CD ending up on extremely strong support line at 1.1800. But this is in a distant future.
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I am not scalping, so now I am staying NEUTRAL looking for sound confirmation signals to go short soon.

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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #10,726
  • Feb 27, 2012 8:10am Feb 27, 2012 8:10am
Quoting MarcVUM
The last time I was in Vegas I sat around and watched the slots for 2 hours while drinking my favorite Jack and Coke.... I had an idea and then put it to work. I hit the jackpot 3 times on the cherry slots and decided it was time to leave. Then I went to the Bahamas and put my idea to work again on the same cherry slot machines... hit the jackpot 2 times and left with my winnings. You have to remember that these machines are computers and therefore programmed by humans. I spent 8 years as a technology director at a large University so I have a little...
Nice! I must have stumbled into something. lol We should hit the casinos together.
  • #10,727
  • Feb 27, 2012 2:35pm Feb 27, 2012 2:35pm
Quoting halkins
Good Morning Traders….
Am I the only one LONG-TERM-BEAR left in this room? Attachment

---
I am with you mate, been short on GU for a few days as per my chart, missed my SL by 5 pips, now just in profit. I will be holding for a few more days.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,728
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:44pm Feb 27, 2012 4:44pm
Quoting MarcVUM
The last time I was in Vegas I sat around and watched the slots for 2 hours while drinking my favorite Jack and Coke.... I had an idea and then put it to work. I hit the jackpot 3 times on the cherry slots and decided it was time to leave. Then I went to the Bahamas and put my idea to work again on the same cherry slot machines... hit the jackpot 2 times and left with my winnings. You have to remember that these machines are computers and therefore programmed by humans. I spent 8 years as a technology director at a large University so I have...
Hi, Marc. That's interesting. My last visit to a casino was way too many years ago, so I just did a quick check on the web and found this on wiki:

"
It is important that the machine contains a high-quality RNG implementation, because all PRNGs must eventually repeat their number sequence (see Art of Computer Programming Volume 2 Chapter 3, Random numbers), and if the period is short, or the PRNG is otherwise flawed, an advantage player may be able to 'predict' the next result. Having access to the PRNG code and seed values Ronald Dale Harris, a former slot machine programmer, discovered equations for specific gambling games like Keno that allowed him to predict what the next set of selected numbers would be based on the previous games played.
Most machines are designed to defeat this by generating numbers even when the machine is not being played, so the player cannot tell where in the sequence they are, even if he knows how the machine was programmed."


Do you know if the slots you played have continuously generated numbers or not? Or you meant that one could beat the machine by finding out likely sequences no matter which type of machine?
  • #10,729
  • Feb 28, 2012 4:39am Feb 28, 2012 4:39am
Good Morning Fellow Traders.

There are a couple of possible scenarios for today’s Eurodollar behavior.
I think bulls would love to attack 1.35200-1.35500 area, but the price at this moment (1.34500) isn’t any attractive.
The “big boys” don’t want 40-50pips… Not at all.

One of the scenarios is that PA falls down to previous S/R level @ 1.33400.
I believe this level (Zone A) will be very attractive for most of the bulls to start buying and attacking,
as they will have a potential of 200pips in gains (Zone B).
This is my scenario for today and tomorrow, just waiting for 1.33400 and seeing what does price do at this level...
Certainly, we’ve got some news on its way, which can turn the table up side down and reject my scenario.
Any comments, positive or negative recommended
--
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Read Charts - Not Papers
  • #10,730
  • Feb 28, 2012 2:43pm Feb 28, 2012 2:43pm
Hi All,
Here is what I have been watching for a long time. Its the monthly chart so it will take a while to complete. I think a major pull back is due in the yellow area. Dow is also showing similar signs.
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #10,731
  • Feb 28, 2012 3:28pm Feb 28, 2012 3:28pm
Quoting Oshawa
Hi, Marc. That's interesting. My last visit to a casino was way too many years ago, so I just did a quick check on the web and found this on wiki:

"
It is important that the machine contains a high-quality RNG implementation, because all PRNGs must eventually repeat their number sequence (see Art of Computer Programming Volume 2 Chapter 3, Random numbers), and if the period is short, or the PRNG is otherwise flawed, an advantage player may be able to 'predict'...
I was playing the wild cherry machines and discovered that if a certain amount of money was used to begin the play and then a sequence of plays and double plays were used then you could hit the jackpot. You have to sit around and watch to see what machines are being used and which ones are not. Your best bet is to start on a machine that some elderly person has been sitting at all day long. Wait about 15 to 20 minutes before sitting down behind that machine!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #10,732
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:11pm Feb 28, 2012 9:11pm
Or you could just use the "Q-Ring" that Q uses on the slot machines in Diamonds are Forever. Classic Bond is the ONLY Bond. Roger Moore and Sean Connery are the only Bonds I like.
Attached Image
  • #10,733
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:14pm Feb 28, 2012 9:14pm
EU on the radar. Getting close to conf of 1.35, TL and LT Fib
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  • #10,734
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:20pm Feb 28, 2012 9:20pm
Quoting Saxon
EU on the radar. Getting close to conf of 1.35, TL and LT Fib
Have you got a read on A/U? I figure with the break of the HTL that price will continue up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #10,735
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:24pm Feb 28, 2012 9:24pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Have you got a read on A/U? I figure with the break of the HTL that price will continue up.
Ya, you'd think so. Ill have to check and see what's on the menu for data tomorrow. Looks like it's being held by Piv friction right now. EU can also give it a push once it decides what it is going to do around the 1.35 mark.
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  • #10,736
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:28pm Feb 28, 2012 9:28pm
A shorter-frame look at AU. Pretty geometric
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  • #10,737
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:30pm Feb 28, 2012 9:30pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Have you got a read on A/U? I figure with the break of the HTL that price will continue up.
We still have one thats not closed above 1hr..

4hr chart and zoom
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  • #10,738
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:31pm Feb 28, 2012 9:31pm
What's up Chilly, long time
  • #10,739
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:35pm Feb 28, 2012 9:35pm
Quoting Saxon
What's up Chilly, long time
Hey Man! All is good and still hanging in there.. Hope all is well!

Ps.. I play a mean game of craps, but never knew how nice the 'don't pass line' could be considering the odds. I use to hate that guy....Hehe..
  • #10,740
  • Feb 28, 2012 9:38pm Feb 28, 2012 9:38pm
Quoting Chillypiper
We still have one thats not closed above 1hr..

4hr chart and zoom
Gotcha. Thanks!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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