How would you consider playing on the untouched levels?
I mean as for deadly accurate entry plan...
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Any decent untested level is worth a potential trade. Always look for confluence at the level and take into consideration the market structure and price action. At the level, you can drop to a 5min to confirm an entry if you like. You never can tell how much the price will react, so its always a good idea to take a some off the table early so if it react only a little and then fails, you sustain a BE, or smaller loss. These types of levels are everywhere, so be picky which ones you choose.
IMO it is not a perfect pinbar. It closes above open price, and its has massive body (on my chart), and lower long wick (on duzzdude chart).
But, there are some other Price Action S&D and Trend Line hinting for at least a Pullback...
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A candle open and close (and hence candle structure) over 1hr is broker dependant. Some people will argue some brokers times are betters than others, but I have learnt to ignore that. Choose your broker. Trade the candles you see. Keep things simple.
There a few things to take into consideration with the Jen.
1. There has been rumors that the rise in the Yen has been "intervention by stealth". Whether this is true, who knows... besides being interesting.
2. Looking at the monthly, the rise to did end where you would might expect it to. (chart 1)
3. A rally like that is unlikely to "collapse", so taking shorts of the pin might work, but not how I would play it. That would be a 50/50 (at best). If we get a railway track pattern with two daily pins, then that might entice me to look at a short. If we get double top and a pin on the second top, that would entice me to look at a short. Basically, an immediate reversal is unlikely. If she falls, it should base first, or break up and fail, or "show" you some pattern that indicates reversal. Safest play is to wait for that market to show you this, then jump on board. A single pin after such strength is not going to have me looking for shorts.
4. Safest way to look at it would be to expect a "pullback" to "support" and then a rally back up into the pin. All you need to do is look at the 4hr or daily for where this might be and take the long (chart 2). If you like, you can look for a pattern, conflunce, PA, consolidation, etc on the small time frame to confirm/fine tune entry.
5. As you have reached a place where a reversal can occur (looking at weekly) or at least a stall, and you have a big daily pin, do not hold expecting the "big one". Take some profit early or chip away with small trades until you see someting that suggest longer term continuation or reversal.
(I am going to post a reminder about someting else next)
Any decent untested level is worth a potential trade. Always look for confluence at the level and take into consideration the market structure and price action. At the level, you can drop to a 5min to confirm an entry if you like. You never can tell how much the price will react, so its always a good idea to take a some off the table early so if it react only a little and then fails, you sustain a BE, or smaller loss. These types of levels are everywhere, so be picky which ones you choose.
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Hi Gilben,
I know that "words" are not always the best way to learn. Sometimes pictures and examples are better. So, I decided to give you an example of what what I mean.
If you review my posts over the last few months, I normally say that I "look for conflence". And I normally say for a level, I look at for trend line, though that is not the only type of confluence.
So, instead of picking perfect examples from historical charts, its better to look at live markets, real time as you always learn better.
Here is the most recent untested support level for Yen. The same level I marked up for you and Heeby earlier, before price pulled back to the level (see my earlier posts today).
I show an "example" of what I mean by confluence using a TL. I also said in the post to Heeby, I would take some of the table at 30 to 40 pips. You could of done that and have the trade at BE and hold rest for more.
It shows the fact that when you have the appropriate skill level (I am still learning myself), that you can indeed enter trades with deadly acurracy.
In addition, if you was taking this play, you need to understand the intra-day PA. These are some things to look at:
1. We are below daily open.
2. Where price "flipped". That is the actual intra-day reversal point.
3. Price formed and then fell out of the bottom of downsloping channel. Price may fall further after retesting the channel (acting as resistance) hence you want to take some profit at that level and get to BE. Or price could break back into the channel and lower the channel becomes support, targeting top of channel.
4. 5min chart has support turning into resistance, so at this moment, on the 5min chart, the trend is down, using S/R.
5. BUT, remember, the long entry would have been on a larger time frame, so be very careful letting the 5min rule your head. That is, if you take an entry based on 4hr or daily PA, do not let a 5min chart "shake you out of a trade".As Will says "the reason you get in is the reason you get out". If I get in on time frame x, I also like get out on time frame x, or at least do not loose sight of the bigger picture.
About the untested levels you have plotted, what about looking more left, I mean a bigger swing, some untested levels might have been tested. What is your thought? TQ.
About the untested levels you have plotted, what about looking more left, I mean a bigger swing, some untested levels might have been tested. What is your thought? TQ.
There is more than one way to look at S/R levels and more than one way to trade them, depending on the situation. Sometimes it's the break out level (untested level) prior to the hook you want to trade, sometimes you want to take a position inside the hook, sometimes at the base of the hook, and sometimes there is a reaon not take the trade.
I thought I remind people of this. One thing Will says very early in this thread, is that he looks at the "origin of the move" or the "start of the wave structure" as he points out that this is where you often get the best entries. Certainly, the entries that may give you a chance for a great ride.
Green circle shows the setup. Vertical break out, hook, continuation.
Level/zone held (that is the main point to note) and provided 3 potential entry points. Chart 1.
I would have expected a push back and restest of the daily low. That would have been a good target. Take of some profit off at around 30 - 40 pips (the smallest rally of the marked points was 45 pips, then leave rest to ride for target - which has not been reached yet). Chart 2.
I should point out that the yen is very seasonal. Most people are not away of this. It can form a great way to look at bias. So, the big rally was in line with this seasonal tendancy. The red line is an average of price move over the last 30 odds years (since yen traded, what ever year that was). Note that this is Yen futures shown, so you need to invert the price for spot. But is amazing how the swings up and down roughly follow an average path Chart 3. (red line)
The Jan - March decline (futures) or rise (spot) seasonal tendancy is quite strong. Also note, the pattern has played out exactly as one might expected. Note the stall and the the continuation in the seasonal tendancy. So, for spot, it would not surprise me if price broke higher and found high at the end of March. Chart 4.
(I was going to mention this before Heeby / Gilben, but best not to let everything out at once. Hence, that was why I still have bias north. I expected the pullback (as per previous post) at weekly S/R and pullback, and a another push up is very possible.)
Level/zone held (that is the main point to note) and provided 3 potential entry points. Chart 1.
I would have expected a push back and restest of the daily low. That would have been a good target. Take of some profit off at around 30 - 40 pips (the smallest rally of the marked points was 45 pips, then leave rest to ride for target - which has not been reached yet). Chart 2.
I should point out that the yen is very seasonal....
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The seasonal Trend view is very interesting.
Thank you for your insights!!
Trading with Deadly Accuracy
