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X-Man's super simple system 4 hour method 1 reply

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X-Man's Super Simple System

Short on eu H1, could be a little premature, not all confirmations yet, but TDI crossing and previous candle a pullback.
Only for those who are proficient with S3 EU pair, and want to be try other USD pair.
you may want to take a look at kiwi dollar.
There is double top chart pattern, so looks like a good sell setup now on H1
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
phx62, i noticed you set your SL & TP at 50 which is pretty much what i shoot for, my question is do you consider any obstacles in between like S&R, Channel etc., I noticed a lot of different ways people set there SL & TP, i like to set mine above or below S&R but sometimes this gives me less than 50 as it bounces most of the time.
Or do you just set it and don't worry about the obstacles, i just find myself leaving money on the table especially if there is no bounce and it continues, then i have to re-enter. Would appreciate your input or anyone's input.
I know someone posted the TDI indicator for the Trade Station a few weeks ago in this thread.

I searched high and low and scrolled through a lot pages, but couldn't find it.

Does someone know which post I mean?

@Emmanuel: In post #5167 I see you also use the Trade Station, do you have this TDI indicator on file?
Hi Jasonnevis,

I agree with you on this topic; however, to get a really small SL, one needs to enter quite prematurely, i.e. before you get solid confirmation (such as a break of some area etc.). How do you take this into consideration?

To be more specific, I tried this method in the past week and found that even though I was not super conservative (like NOT waiting for the current candle to close with a TDI cross), I still had to set 40-50 pips in SL based on the previous swing low (for a long trade). I know X-man started to be more aggressive this way as well. My thinking at these trades at that time was like "man, I should get in earlier so that my SL is tighter". But this thinking would sound reckless and deviates from the discipline that we should have with a system, right?

So far, I just don't know how to solve this dilemma. Any thoughts?

Quoting jasonnevis
Out of my trade with a nice profit.

One thing that I think is overlooked in terms of money management, is that trade setup ratio needs to be taken into consideration.

If you look at the last trade that I took, the stop loss distance was very close to where current price was... if you are calculating your risk per trade based on your stop loss then you really don't need many pips in your favour to reach a desired target.

I believe that each trade should be based on the setup in question and the stop loss you calculate for that particular...
Quoting Liberum
I know someone posted the TDI indicator for the Trade Station a few weeks ago in this thread.

I searched high and low and scrolled through a lot pages, but couldn't find it.

Does someone know which post I mean?

@Emmanuel: In post #5167 I see you also use the Trade Station, do you have this TDI indicator on file?

Hi Liberum,

ok I will email you.

it is a .lua type file and FF does not allow upload of such files.

It can also be downloaded from the TS forum site...
http://fxcodebase.com/code/viewforum.php?f=17&start=325

actually lots of stuff there.... for dowloading.

Cheers!
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
Quoting emmanuel7788
Now this is that paricular H1 bar which the market is asking that same question everytime.

Do you want the market to leave you behind?
Or
Do you want the market to take you along?

decision , decision,decision, ....
shorting seems to be the right decision...
Quoting nnpra
Hi Jasonnevis,

I agree with you on this topic; however, to get a really small SL, one needs to enter quite prematurely, i.e. before you get solid confirmation (such as a break of some area etc.).
Absolutely correct ... in this discussion, I think it's worth considering this :

  1. Entering prematurely suggests a weaker signal and an increased likelihood that a trade will go against you.
  2. A small SL is much more likely to get hit than a large SL.
  3. Combine the two, you've potentially doubled (or more) your chances of losing your 2% (or whatever you risk per trade).


Unless you're a super experienced pro, I wouldn't worry about setting smaller SLs because IMHO it could too easily turn your winning edge into a losing one.

Look at Phx - consistently successful, pretty much always uses a 50 pip SL.

Alternatively, consider using 2xATR as your SL. I've experimented with using 1xATR in the past, but found that that often ended trades prematurely.

I agree, especially on slow days like today, it's would be nice to set an insanely small SL, allowing a larger position size and therefore more $ per pip ... at the same time, look at how today is bouncing around -the perfect example of why you should wait for the solid signals and allow trades to breathe.

Just my 2c.

1 pip at a time ... if the entries are strong, the rest will follow ...
Quoting nnpra
Hi Jasonnevis,

I agree with you on this topic; however, to get a really small SL, one needs to enter quite prematurely, i.e. before you get solid confirmation (such as a break of some area etc.). How do you take this into consideration?

To be more specific, I tried this method in the past week and found that even though I was not super conservative (like NOT waiting for the current candle to close with a TDI cross), I still had to set 40-50 pips in SL based on the previous swing low (for a long trade). I know X-man started to be more aggressive...
The money management I have mentioned in not at all part of S3 system, it's simply a management method that exists, and can be used. There are many others. I know Xman does not use this method for a fact, but to me this way makes the most sense.

To answer your question, every trading opportunity will be different. Most of the time it will be obvious, the swing high or low prior. Sometimes as in the last trade I made it will be come with time looking at price action and support and resistance on charts, then quickly calulating the stop and placing the trade...

Every trade setup will be different and needs to be calulacted to match the risk percentage that you determine per trade. For instance I use 3% per trade. So if I loss or win, I am risk 3% of my total account size. If starting with 100k this would be 3k on the first trade, then calulated on the account size going forward per trade. If you win or lose, your account will scale itself out automatically because you are always recalulating 3% based on the current account amount.

If you use this type of money management, then I think you need to base your exits on logical support and resistance areas, rather than pip distance away.

Here is the calculator I use ever time I trade.

http://www.earnforex.com/position-size-calculator
I sure wish this Bull would get out of the way of my Bear. He really needs a beer on the other side of 1.3400.

Short @ 1.34517 on the pull back of the LO candle.

CM
Quoting antantnz
Absolutely correct ... in this discussion, I think it's worth considering this :

  1. Entering prematurely suggests a weaker signal and an increased likelihood that a trade will go against you.
  2. A small SL is much more likely to get hit than a large SL.
  3. Combine the two, you've potentially doubled (or more) your chances of losing your 2% (or whatever you risk per trade).

Unless you're a super experienced pro, I wouldn't worry about setting smaller SLs because IMHO it could too easily turn your winning edge into a losing one.

Look...

I also like to set my TP at 50 and have been thinking of going 2XATR but i just feel that is a lot for trading H1 chart as i do, i feel 100 SL i would have to trade the Daily which i don't have the patience for. I think i would prefer setting a smaller SL and if it hits it doesn't hurt so much and you go on and look for another setup. I suppose it's damn if you do and damn if you don't, part of Forex.
X-Man,

Your post #5599. Good video! Everyone should watch it.
He gave some excellent advice.

snarlyjack
Quoting antantnz
Absolutely correct ... in this discussion, I think it's worth considering this :

  1. Entering prematurely suggests a weaker signal and an increased likelihood that a trade will go against you.
  2. A small SL is much more likely to get hit than a large SL.
  3. Combine the two, you've potentially doubled (or more) your chances of losing your 2% (or whatever you risk per trade).

Unless you're a super experienced pro, I wouldn't worry about setting smaller SLs because IMHO it could too easily turn your winning edge into a losing one.

Look...

Hi Ant,

I do agree with some of points you have mentioned.

I believe this system is open to interpretation. In saying this, the entry you take is also.... Premature to one person will be perfect for another, based on a number of factors, experience and chart time being a prominent one.

A small stop loss, in my opinion, does not equate to a higher risk. The risk is proportional and predetermined based on the current setup and your confidence and trading experience. Even if you have a wider stop loss, you still don't have a crystal ball. Anything can happen....right?

Phx is monitoring his trades very closely and cutting them short as soon as they look wrong. This, plus his experience is keeping him in the game i think! He still is using support, resistance, fib, pivot, ema's to exit and most importantly, price action to exit + experience!
EU on M5 TF is head and shoulders.
Out with +15 PIPs


CM
Quoting Gwsands
Hi lijn,

As Phx62 is probably asleep right now, maybe I can give you some information... in post #5242 he wrote about pivot points (in answer to another question) "I also have them on a different EU chart but so far, they have not been as useful as I wanted....still looking at them to see what I am missing."
Hope that helps. It seems like he doesn't pay much attention to them.
thx for your info
Quoting X-Man
No im not entering short yet. to me thats not a good setup .
I feel the market is still bullish.
I need more conformation if im going short.
what kind of confirmation that you are waiting? is not that in h4 the price bounce the channel? and h1 show it is going short soon right with TDI cross down and at LO the price testing upper channel and bounce back?

but if we see the result. you are still right to not enter short yet. currently still stuck on 8 pip profit.
what make you feel that market still bullish? is it because TDI is higher than MBL?

* sry if i ask too many question
Quoting ljin
what kind of confirmation that you are waiting? is not that in h4 the price bounce the channel? and h1 show it is going short soon right with TDI cross down and at LO the price testing upper channel and bounce back?

but if we see the result. you are still right to not enter short yet. currently still stuck on 8 pip profit.
what make you feel that market still bullish? is it because TDI is higher than MBL?

* sry if i ask too many question
I think he's talking about momentum. I see that there isn't enough momentum to enter a trade, i've seen tdi crosses but i'm not in yet due to momentum lackness. Anyway we should wait thoughts on this from especialists like X.

Regards
let's skype: @elchinoazul
Quoting antantnz
I agree, especially on slow days like today, it would be nice to set an insanely small SL, allowing a larger position size and therefore more $ per pip
Hey antantnz,
Thought I'd chip in with my 2c.

The quote above reveals a place where all traders have been or are i.e. "I want to grow my account as quickly as possible."

Growing your account is a consequence, a result. It comes third.

What comes first is copying and pasting (not just reading) the seniors' posts, getting an overview of what you trade e.g. the London Session, getting clues (mostly very obvious) from the seniors as to what works, studying past trades where you can see and confirm the clues working, adding your own knowledge and intuition, and then waiting for the set-ups that work.

Then, lo and behold, you have arrived at the second stage - belief.

I read a while ago that traders who have followed this path tend not to know how big their account is, they're so focused on their system (yes, it becomes their system), how it's performing and what knowledge could improve it.

Wishing everyone calmness and strength as we do the work and travel the path that the seniors have done before us.

Kan
Thanks for your help, warmth and straight talking Heather.
Hi,
I think the key level is the Day 200MA where it is constant resistant. Need to check if price whether can break above or cannot before confirming it to be a short.

Alternatively for risk taker, is to short first and place SL 10-20 pips above the Day 200MA.

My 2 cents worth thought.
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