AUD/USD

You are doing exactly what should be done. But I have to work on a job which does not allow us to trade, so I can't place manual orders at will. Otherwise, I would copy your example 100%.....

You should still place the odd sneaky trade on your phone

Lets make rugs out of these bears!!!! 1.0805 ...

I trade with AlpariUK and wish they have metatrader for android phones...

Olu

Okay the range will be 1.065 to 1.08. That's the pattern nowadays. It might break 1.08 this time, but it's unlikely.

That's all I'm asking

Hey bro,

Just checked the Gartley in 4H. Exact formation of bearish gartley.

Now, even more tempted to short

I ain't sure about that buddy. In fact, there is a perfect bearish gartley formation in 4H as lebelup has mentioned. But anything can happen. So, i am staying in sidelines for now.

looks bearish to me. sold @1.0760. sl: 1.0800

If your risk/reward allows then move the SL to 1.0825, atleast 10 pips above the last high 1.0815

That is where my stop loss will go, i am still waiting to enter short at 1.0785 - 1.0800 area...

Best thing to do. Let it commit....let it roll...then there should be plenty of downside to cash in on. But again..."anything can happen" with this manipulated market we're dealing with.

Another thing to consider is the fact that there is a lot of AUD news coming out tomorrow evening (US time). Don't jump too soon. When the opportunity presents itself, it will be obvious, one way or the other.

I am waiting. Will not short until i am satisfied or clear. According to me, best way is to stay sidelines during a dilemma.

what dilemma. rallied from 1.0600 to 1.0770 and u are still in dilemma? short and bag the next 170 pip fall.

Another day another dollar...
make it an Aussie one

What to do, what to do...surely at this top of range i should be looking for the short right?
Well i was looking for the long and found it last night, but i won't be looking for the short unless price tells me so, at least not while the 750 area is holding

I would like to see it go to 800 and come back a bit, maybe to 750/40, as per usual price will show the way

Still roughly an hour and a half before the H4 candle closes but anyway these are the levels I see on my chart:

Short AUD at 1.0780

My view on AUDUSD




MONTHLY:
Taking a first look at this pair, monthly is clearly bullish. I will tell my reasons for it and it may not be the correct analysis. Looking the November and December candles, they show absolute bullish bias. Those both candles have taken 23.6% FIB support at 0.9881. But we should also note that, even though December candle is bullish it has a lower high and higher low when compared to November that means, the bullish tone is not stronger than if it would have given a higher high. I could also see that, a resistance of 1.0550 is broken and went higher by giving a good retracement (between 26th and 30th of January) with next resistance between the range 1.0964 and 1.1010 (April and May candles of 2011).


Please note the trend line in RSI which was broken in the month of August and I expect it to retrace till the broken trend line and we have to admit that as far as it stays above 50, it isn’t bearish. It is not over-bought when monthly is concerned.


By referring to another monthly chart (also attached): Let us now compare the high of July 2008 and July 2011 in PA. Obviously July 2011 has formed a higher high and by looking at MACD, it also has formed a higher high. Now, by comparing the high of July 2008 and January 2012, PA shows higher high, but MACD has given a lower high (note the horizontal line in MACD with a value of 0.04720). Also watch the signal line too. That does mean that the momentum may have started to shift in longer time frame. At least when Monthly chart in concerned.

WEEKLY:



Now, we shall take a look at weekly chart. I could first note the 78.6% at 1.0716 is broken and the market is hovering around that area. In fact, when we look at last 5 weekly candles, it shows a sort of consolidation with the market moving with a range between 1.0630 and 1.0800. So, a close above 1.0800 should take this pair to 1.0964. Alternatively, a close below 1.0630 should drive this pair down to 1.0431(61.8% of FIB) with second target being 1.0270 (PA). When looking at Bollinger band(20), the price is comfortably above its mid-point. Weekly RSI also stays above 50.

DAILY:


Bullish flag is what I see as soon as I take a look at daily chart. RSI has taken support at 50 and now it stays at trend line resistance. A break above it, should result in forming new high.


Watch out for the supply zone between 1.0727 and 1.0800 which has taken this pair blow parity in the past. Hence, neglecting this might be costly. Bulls should wait for the close above 1.0800 is what I advice. Since it is above Bollinger (20) mid, bulls have a good chance to break 1.0800 level. However, have patience until the day close above 1.0800 (1.0850 will be safer) if at all it happens. If that happens, MACD might also look like crossed above the signal line which should be bullish is what my opinion.

4H:


4H RSI has comfortably broken 50 level yesterday with a long candle which obviously shows the strength of the bulls. Note the trend line support too. When we draw a FIB, between the high and low of current range (1.0842 to 1.0595), price has crossed 61.8% level strongly and has given a retracement and now going up with 1.0798 being next resistance level. I could see that 1.0740 range has been a good S/R level.


I also use 55 smoothed MA and 200 SMA (which seems to be working out) which tells me the trend correctly. By using those MAs, the trend is clearly bullish, and as long as the price stays above 200 SMA it isn’t bearish. However, we must not forget the fact that MAs are lagging indicators. Also note that, two trend lines (white and red) have been broken.
There is also a bearish Gartley formation that prevents from buying. However, a breach of 1.0780 might failure the formation. Do not neglect the inverted H&S formation (shown in separate chart with a channel) with falling neck line (already broken) which is purely bullish. MACD is also comfortably in friendship with the bulls.



So on the whole, longer time frame in concerned I am staying sidelines unless I see a clear break on any of the direction. Though I will be scalping in short term.


Charts attached.



Please consider this as just an information. I am not an experienced trader and I ain’t giving any signal and try to influence your trading. So, always TRADE WHAT YOU SEE.


I welcome any contrast in opinion and I am also here to share and also to learn.


Thank you friends!!!!


FXT !!!

H& S chart attached.

look break sell :