Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

Mavricos,

I want to stress that everyone's eye is different. If you can find good trades off your chart then go with it. Here is my version of the 240 EUR/USD. I don't usually chart this time frame so there may be nicer charts out there as well.

like the confluence here at current level.

What's the point of using Schiffs or modified Schiffs? Anchoring off a gap?? All of these are variants of a normal P0 placement.

I normally modify or copy the existing fork with the angle of the new median set off the reversal point of first retrace attempt towards the P2 median, maybe described better as a channel but I find this better captures the current momentum of price.

Over/under shoots of the P2 and center medians are also marked and noted.

Imho, the best tools are dynamic in nature, flowing or adjusting with price, not trying to fit price action into a predefined box.

All have their place in the toolbox.......fwiw,

regards

If it looks good use it...to me it happens to look good fitted or not...just measuring off the bottom of the channel is all.

I'm not opposed to using well-tested variants off of the standard P0 placement but the chart I was referring to by BayFisherman - he didn't choose a pivot at all. This is curve fitting. If we stick to the "rules" and choose one of the numerous pivot choices or fork types and get something that shows the frequency of price - great. If we are moving our A pivot around until we get something we like and considering this a valid fork then I believe it would be better just to draw a trend channel.

You cannot expect price to reach the median line on a fork that has been forced 80% of the time. You also give away valuable information - like when the market doesn't make it to the ML this may say something about a change in behavior in the unfolding of price.

Of course the bottom line is your bottom line using these tools - if you are consistently getting profitable trades off of your forks then keep doing it. I'm not trying to be the fork police.

rCrumb,

My apologies if I came across in an ill manner, wasn't my intentions. I agree there's much information to be garnered from price's ability to make, exceed or fall short on a properly drawn fork, my point was there are times when alternate points of origin are ok.

I do agree that curve-fitting if you want to call it that, random placements for the sake of making the lines fit is a crap-shoot if traded. I guess the emphasis should be upon the proper "reversal" or better, "change of state" points to anchor a median set and why.

regards,

zforget that I named these AU files it's the EU fork...been watching AU just now...lol...and yes you are correct I"m using this as a channel, but are we really quibbling over a few pips here on an spike high closing at the low?

Width forks, other variations, etc. like I said before if it looks good use it.

where I've broken the rules...but hey it looks good to me what do you think?

zoomed up a little


Point taken on last reply, thanks. Don't see many posts in here for some reason, so I try to put some charts out there to get the thread moving...

BF,

I'm not trying to bash you at all. I do think that changing the A pivot to show a touch on the move down takes away some valuable information - namely that a miss of the LMLH indicates possible strength and a move upward.

Here is a fork on the EU which follows the rules, has nice frequency with price and indicates a likely up move. Using the fork you showed I might have considered shorting the UMLH rather than looking for a continuation trade.

Again, if you are finding consistently profitable trades off of your forks then keep doing what you are doing. Everyone's eyes are different and we can draw different forks with neither of us being right or wrong.

stop above the high...open didn't look to have too much conviction to the upside, currently short.

I'm glad to see respectful discussion about whether drawing "Curve Fit" forks (also known as "APO" or "Alternate Point of Origin" forks) is legitimate or not.

Bayfisherman first drew an EU fork like my Black ABC below, and noticed that dropping the P0 a bit to make the Red APO fork worked very well to create a future area of resistance around "Z" (but it did eventually break).

rCrumb advised caution with Curve Fitting forks like this. One may miss the clues the original fork is telling you.

I say that both are "right". Curve Fitting can be a crapshoot, HOWEVER... in this particular case, the technique of adjusting the black ABC fork so that it connects points labeled B-to-D is NOT actually random curve-fitting, but is -- by definition -- drawing the ModSchiff of the green BCD Andrews PF!

The key is that you are using the LML (Lower Median Line) to connect B-to-D. It wouldn't be the same if you were using the Median-Line or some other parallel to make the connection from B-to-D.

A lot of people don't realize that if you connect ANY two major pivots that are both Lows (or both Highs), you just drew a line that defines the same thing as the LML (or UML) of the ModSchiff fork where those two pivots are the P0 and P2 of the (unmodified Andrews) fork (and the P1 is generally the farthest away opposite pivot between them). Once you take the ModSchiff of that Andrews fork, you have the ModSchiff LML (or UML) connecting the (Andrews) P0 and P2.

Check out the drawings are realize how the geometry works out perfectly. Bayfisherman wasn't "curve fitting" after all. But rCumb makes an excellent point that only by drawing the black ABC fork, and observing that price at D failed to reach the objective of the black LML, this invoked the Hagopian rule, and was a sign of future strength! It was more likely to break upwards as it did at "Z" because of the Hagopian rule near-miss of the black LML.

Make sense?

Good trades to you.

P.S. Good call to spot the EU weakness, Bayfisherman. There's been a nice but small pullback so far. But would just like to point out you can draw a line from A-to-C (two highs). By definition, once again, you'd be drawing the UML of a Mod.Schiff of the black ABC Andrews fork. Price broke above that ULM on Friday, has come down and even broken below it but it was strongly rejected for a single H1 bar. Now it's dribbling down a bit (the weakness you mentioned). Just now, it is bouncing a bit at the A-C line. We'll see if that larger ModSchiff UML holds or not. I'm trying a small long there.

P.S.S. When I dropped to M1, I see that my feed has a single stupid spike candle that made me think that price had retested that A-C line already, and strongly rejected it, when in fact it's just a bogus spike! So this test right now is the first test, and I've got nothing but air below for a stop. Not nearly as solid a "long" opportunity as I had thought before, but I'm in it already. Just got back to BE actually.

Here's some charts if anyone would care to take a look at the usdpairs and xau/usd.

Good trading all...and try not to fork it up too much...lol.

Forex room: AU, GU, EU, Kiwi, CAD, CHF, JPY, XAU/usd

http://www.screencast.com/t/hHt89Rao

Overnight session: USoil, USdollar, Spx500

http://www.screencast.com/t/6TKHUNelSb

remember once you are in the libary you can toggle around to the other charts...they've all been updated since this morning.

pivots look good on both angles.

keep an eye on lower ML.demand zone 0n 1,3410 !!

Eur/Usd Daily chart

decent UML touch on this M. Schiff.

euro weekly

euro continued

re-post from another thread here for the forkers

fwiw

just messin around some this weekend...found some interesting lines
on HTF

Don't trade es but found these lines interesting as well.