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Extreme TMA System

  • #1,241
  • Feb 27, 2012 2:44am Feb 27, 2012 2:44am
Quoting shahrooz67
THANKS FOR YOUR EFFORTS MAN

but it is not exactly what i meant , when you are using two levels equal to 0.5 or -0.5 they are just two amounts not a percentage of our average!

So for a trend or a pair or a time frame it may be too late or too early if the TMA slope pass .5 to take the signal or to filter it !


If you use a percentage average of for example 1000 bars in a pair in a time frame you MAY get the best signals


Hope I were clear enough
You could be right that it would give a more accurate trend change indication. I would like to have a TMA Slope indi of it and compare it side by side with Zznbrm´s to see which one gives better signals.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,242
  • Feb 27, 2012 2:48am Feb 27, 2012 2:48am
Quoting zznbrm
Sorry about that...I do not trade JPY pairs so I did not initially create the TmaSlope indicators with those in mind.

I have updated both the TmaSlope and TmaSlope2 indicators to work for JPY pairs also. See here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...20#post4049320

Also, I included two more indicators (MA-Cross2 and SemaphorHist) so I could visually backtest this strategy. If anyone is interested in visually backtesting, you can load the following on your chart:

TmaTrue (non-repaint version of TMA)
TmaSlope2 (non-repaint...
I believe backtesting cannot be done accurately with this system. I´d rather rely on actual trade results going forward to determine win/loss and other parameters.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,243
  • Feb 27, 2012 2:55am Feb 27, 2012 2:55am
Quoting Thomas Kedf.
Hi Al,
and thank you for your post.
You said:

"This system will work well with a 15M time frame. Even though it works with all time frames, I have only tested it with 15 minute candles."

Is there a particular secret behind the 15M time frame? What do you think can happen if we try different time frames?
I have tried it with M1, M5, H1 and H4 and it seems to work fine with all but not for as extended a period as i´ve used with M15. You may have to adjust the AtrMultiplier input up or down to widen or narrow the distance between the bands to better fit each time frame. If any of you use it with other TF, we would appreciate your input on the results achieved.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,244
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:00am Feb 27, 2012 3:00am
Quoting bfis108137
This thread is amazing. After one week it already has 82 pages. That has got to be some kind of ff record. I am on page 40 now and I am dying to get to the end. This is now my favorite thread.
Thanks. I´m it will improve further as more of you contribute and we all get to know each other better.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,245
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:04am Feb 27, 2012 3:04am
Quoting bfis108137
I honestly think that there is too many people in the forex market for this too matter. I mean I bet even with the great interest this thread has gained in it's short time that there are no more than say 10000 traders using this system right now. Now I doubt it's even that and just think how many other systems there are on ff that are popular. I mean just off the top of my head we have symphonie, thv, "The system 1, 2, and 3", jankone, 5min pb, and then there is the big j16 thread. This doesn't count the classic ta traders that are trading...
Well, put. The markets, like nature, are in a state of constant flux. This system will be alive and ever changing too as we constantly adapt it to the current circumstances of the market in real time going forward.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,246
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:06am Feb 27, 2012 3:06am
Quoting frollollc
Basically, the darker colors are subject to repainting. The brighter colors will not repaint. This has been covered extensively in the thread. Any appropriate color of a closed bar is valid for trading, even if it repaints.
Also, the more to the left a dark colored bar is, the less likely it is that it will repaint.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,247
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:09am Feb 27, 2012 3:09am
Quoting Jemook
Hi all,

A question about the crossover colour change exit:

Say I've got all my criteria to go short and I enter a short trade. The crossover colour is dark red when I take the trade but price ranges for a bit and then the crossover colour starts changing to dark blue. Should I exit the trade even if it has not made any money yet? Or is the exit on colour change only after profit?

Thanks
Jem
No. You remain in the trade as stated on page 1. It is normal to have several shakeout bars at the end of the move, so repeated color changes are perfectly normal.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,248
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:10am Feb 27, 2012 3:10am
Quoting Forex Girl
Which the TMA Slope set up? How to do it?

Thank you!
Forex Girl, I love your avatar. If the other eye is as beautiful as this one, you have quite a pair!
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,249
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:12am Feb 27, 2012 3:12am
Al, have any trades goin on?
  • #1,250
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:13am Feb 27, 2012 3:13am
[quote=Ferod;5421842]
Quoting Alorente

Hi Al. My intention was not to discuss the THV system, but to point out that the templete I had not worked. Excuse me.
I understand. Thanks for letting me know.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,251
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:18am Feb 27, 2012 3:18am
[quote=Alorente;5421951]
Quoting Ferod
I understand. Thanks for letting me know.
Yes. Entered EurUsd short last night when the TMA turned sideways and I just exited on opposite band cross for +55 pips.

I´m looking to enter UsdJpy (long) soon as well as AudJpy(long) and GbpAud (short).
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,252
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:36am Feb 27, 2012 3:36am
Hi AL

As a suggestion man ( I know you have lots of information about trading and I know nothing about that ) But do you use Multi Time frame analysis for your trading or not ?!


If so how do you use ,

Thanks in advance for responsing

Regards
Shahrooz
  • #1,253
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:57am Feb 27, 2012 3:57am
Quoting Alorente
If this is the case, my parameters on rule 1 may not be accurate. I thought the right side numbers were simply a range of relative values from for example -2.00 to +2.00. And the 2 values shown would be the range of the visible part of the chart.

Please give me your opinions about the values as I listed them on Page 1.
Quote
1- We will first determine trend in the TMA by using the TMA Slope indicator. Ranging TMA (-0.50 to 0.50): Trades can be placed in both directions. Bullish TMA (0.51 to 1.00): Long trades are recommended. Extremely Bullish TMA (Above 1.00): Place ONLY Long trades. Bearish TMA (-0.51 to -1.00): Short trades are recommended. Extremely Bearish TMA (Below -1.00): Place ONLY Short trades.

Scrolling back through the EURUSD M15 chart, it is rare for the TMA Slope to be in your Bullish or Bearish range and price hit the opposite side of the TMA.

Since Jan 2011, it has never happened where the TMA Slope was in your Extremely Bullish or Extremely Bearish range and price hit the opposite side of the TMA.

So, it looks like 95+% of the time the TMA Slope will be within the Ranging range (-0.50 to 0.50) when the opposite bands are hit. If you want most of the situations to be considered "Ranging", then your numbers are probably fine....otherwise, you may want to tweak your numbers to better match your perceptions of the ranging/trending percentages of each market.
  • #1,254
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:22am Feb 27, 2012 4:22am
Pay attention
  • #1,255
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:22am Feb 27, 2012 4:22am
Tip:

Let´s look at two fantastically accurate formations that consistently put money in your account. On the chart attached, I have marked with A and B two setups that repeat themselves time and time again that you should be looking for and proceed to enter when you spot them. Let me describe them. In this case they are both long trades in a strong uptrend, but they apply equally for short trades is a strong downtrend as well:

Formation A: Here is one of the most reliable formations in our system.

1- The TMA indicator is on a strong uptrend.

2- Price begins the formation above the upper band, but instead of retracing as usual, it builds a horizontal base over time.

3- As it nears the lower band it pulls back a little to cross the lower band, to almost immediately head north to the opposite band again for a strong, profitable move. Sometimes, the small pullback at the end is missing completely and the formation is still valid as price crosses horizontally the lower band.

The psychology behind this move is simple. Traders that missed the previous move are impatiently waiting for a pullback to get in. Frustration sets in as the pullback does not take place. In the end, as soon as a small move lower happens, traders impatiently jump in, in order not to miss the train this time. In the case where there is not a pullback at all, traders who eagerly want to join the move, place buy stops just over the high of the horizontal base. as the stops are triggered a fast up move begins. This second scenario, is even more explosive than the first, often reaching the opposite band in 2 to 4 candles.

This formation, is the reason why I prefer not to use Renko or Constant Range Bars with Extreme TMA. These bars do not take into account time at all, but only consider price level changes. As you can plainly see, the time factor is extremely important in this formation, as it is time and not price change that ultimately brings PA across the lower band and sets up the trade.

Formation B:

1- The TMA indicator is in a strong uptrend.

2- Price has been gaining nicely for an extended period when this formation begins. Traders that have accumulated nice profits on the previous rise nervously fear that they will lose them if a drop happens. As it does, generally from a level well above the upper band and many times coinciding with a resistance level, they all rush to the exits at the same time creating a countertrend move to the opposite band or beyond. This attracts the attention of traders that had missed the previous upper move and who eagerly jump on the bandwagon to begin a strong move north again to the upper band. This is the most consistently profitable formation, of all that I have studied in the Extreme TMA System.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2 Great Formations.jpg Size: 137 KB
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,256
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:26am Feb 27, 2012 4:26am
Quoting Alorente
Tip:

Let´s look at two fantastically accurate formations that consistently put money in your account. On the chart attached, I have marked with A and B two setups that repeat themselves time and time again that you should be looking for and proceed to enter when you spot them. Let me describe them. In this case they are both long trades in a strong uptrend, but they apply equally for short trades is a strong downtrend as well:

Formation A: Here is one of the most reliable formations in our system.

1- The TMA indicator is on a strong uptrend.

2-...
I did not mention that in formation A, often you do not get a Bull spike at all signaling the upcoming bull run. The reason is that prices are extremely stable for a long time, which precludes the Extreme Spike indicator from acting. In this case, you should ignore the absence of a spike and enter the trade solely with the signal from the MA Crossover.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,257
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:34am Feb 27, 2012 4:34am
Quoting shahrooz67
Hi AL

As a suggestion man ( I know you have lots of information about trading and I know nothing about that ) But do you use Multi Time frame analysis for your trading or not ?!


If so how do you use ,

Thanks in advance for responsing

Regards
Shahrooz
Yes. I like to analyze other time frames for ease of mind that the trade I´m looking to place is supported by the trends shown in other TFs. I start my analysis with the weekly chart to get a sense of the full picture of the pair. The Daily chart and the H4 chart are great to give you a feel for trend, while the Hourly chart helps to reinforce timing of the trade on the M15 chart. In my experience, the best trades happen when all of these charts are pointing in the same direction. But if you waited for all of these to align, you would take very few trades, so I use them only to reinforce my decision to go in which based on the TMA Slope and the other entry rules.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,258
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:36am Feb 27, 2012 4:36am
Quoting Ferod
Pay attention
Thanks for the heads up, Ferod. Notices like these are very effective in bringing your attention to a chart when you get involved in other matters. I´ll be looking to get in when the rules apply.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,259
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:39am Feb 27, 2012 4:39am
Quoting zznbrm
Scrolling back through the EURUSD M15 chart, it is rare for the TMA Slope to be in your Bullish or Bearish range and price hit the opposite side of the TMA.

Since Jan 2011, it has never happened where the TMA Slope was in your Extremely Bullish or Extremely Bearish range and price hit the opposite side of the TMA.

So, it looks like 95+% of the time the TMA Slope will be within the Ranging range (-0.50 to 0.50) when the opposite bands are hit. If you want most of the situations to be considered "Ranging", then your numbers are probably fine....otherwise,...
I would like to hear your suggestions on what the numbers should be, but don´t forget that as you scroll back, the TMA you see is not an actual reflection of what it was at the time of the trade. I drew those numbers from very recent price action on EurUsd and other pairs. I´m sure we´ll have to teak them further.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,260
  • Feb 27, 2012 4:41am Feb 27, 2012 4:41am
Quoting zznbrm
Scrolling back through the EURUSD M15 chart, it is rare for the TMA Slope to be in your Bullish or Bearish range and price hit the opposite side of the TMA.

Since Jan 2011, it has never happened where the TMA Slope was in your Extremely Bullish or Extremely Bearish range and price hit the opposite side of the TMA.

So, it looks like 95+% of the time the TMA Slope will be within the Ranging range (-0.50 to 0.50) when the opposite bands are hit. If you want most of the situations to be considered "Ranging", then your numbers are probably fine....otherwise,...
Also, according to studies that nanningbob has done, he has found that price is ranging about 70% of the time.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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