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AUD/USD

  • #41,001
  • Feb 25, 2012 5:10pm Feb 25, 2012 5:10pm
Thanks again for your insight Barron; everyone here appreciates your input.
My own thoughts on picking tops and bottoms is I don't have to be right; but I do have to pick a bottom somewhere in order to go long. Then I just sit on my trade until it is profitable, maybe a day, a week, or a month from now. Meanwhile I collect my swap.
Let's say I buy a mini lot (that's $10,000 at IBFX). I put up 2% or $200. Everyday I collect $1 swap. At the end of a year that is $365.
Or I can put my $200 in my Bank of America savings account. At the end of a year B of A pays me .001% interest. That is 20 cents.
Or I can put my $200 into my 401k stock market retirement account. The Dow Jones average is lower today than it was in the year 2000, some 12 years ago.
P.S. Bank of America is not our central bank. The US central Bank is called the Federal Reserve Bank, or the Fed for short. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #41,002
  • Feb 26, 2012 12:00am Feb 26, 2012 12:00am
Quoting jerrycollie
The European Central Bank will lend out half a trillion euros to European banks at low rates to refinance the banks. The banks will take this cheap money and buy Audies with it to collect their 4 1/4% interest. Bears may want to short EUR/AUD? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/euro.gif
It sounds good in theory. But remember the last time the ECB did the LTRO, most of the banks parked the cash with the ECB. The other problem with this theory is the enormous amounts of AUD longs in the market currently. CFTC reported this on Friday. EUR and GBP rallied strongly this past week, but the same cannot be said for AUD. With the large amounts of AUD longs currently, I can see the Aussie dropping in a very similar fashion to the short squeeze that is helping drive the Euro back up.
  • #41,003
  • Feb 26, 2012 1:24am Feb 26, 2012 1:24am
Quoting doblece
As long as 1.0750/pitchfork descending channel is not broken:

Attachment

Attachment

... and EUR/AUD shows a double bottom on daily:

Attachment

On the bullish side, upper trendline of the descending channel gives about 1.0790 as possible turn back and bearish continuation (H4), 1.0830/40 on Daily/Weekly.
I saw this double bottom forming around the 1.2305 level. I am upset with myself that I didn't buy in at that level. Nonetheless, I believe this cross has enough steam to climb higher. Looking at the larger scale of the down move from the 5/20/10 high of 1.5454 to the 2/7/12 all-time low of 1.2127, with a daily close above 1.2614 (14.6% fib level), I anticipate this pair could retrace as much as 1.3800 in the short to medium term.

Here is my thinking. Looking at the most recent down move from the 11/23/11 high to our February low, we have now had a daily close above the 23.6% fib level. The double bottom is confirmed; most strong double bottom trend reversals will usually experience a 100% retracement. If we consider this, a 100% retracement of the 11/23/11 high puts us at the 50% fib level of the deeper move from the 5/20/10 high. For me, this is a good confirmation for such a move to take place in the short to medium term. My plan is to enter the trade around the Sunday open and to increase my position upon a daily close above the 1.2614 area. I will place my stop at 1.2373, the 14.6% fib (resistance turned support) level of the 11/23/11 move.

I have attached the chart. Please share any feedback.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD Daily chart.2.25.12.jpg Size: 266 KB
  • #41,004
  • Feb 26, 2012 8:32am Feb 26, 2012 8:32am
A nice wedge has formed on the AUD/USD P&F chart.

Looks like this week will be very interesting as we are up against strong resistance @ 1.0720 that we could not get through last week.

I predict we fall back to support at 1.0640 before we try again.

Bill
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audUSD P&F.png Size: 35 KB
  • #41,005
  • Feb 26, 2012 10:55am Feb 26, 2012 10:55am
Quoting BillSuits
A nice wedge has formed on the AUD/USD P&F chart.

Looks like this week will be very interesting as we are up against strong resistance @ 1.0720 that we could not get through last week.

I predict we fall back to support at 1.0640 before we try again.

Bill
Another drop? Jeez!!! My long trade to 1.0804 has now become an investment. hahahaha. Well at least we are getting 9% positive swap, but I would prefer ching-ching of the cash register.
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,006
  • Feb 26, 2012 1:29pm Feb 26, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting BillSuits
A nice wedge has formed on the AUD/USD P&F chart.

Looks like this week will be very interesting as we are up against strong resistance @ 1.0720 that we could not get through last week.

I predict we fall back to support at 1.0640 before we try again.

Bill
Are you thinking the 38.2 fib retracement on the day? You might have swapped a couple of numbers there.
It's the simple things in life that have the most powerful meaning.
  • #41,007
  • Feb 26, 2012 4:23pm Feb 26, 2012 4:23pm
In the AUD market open, is the AUD/USD stuck in this 3-4 pip range because the BEARS from the very end last week are getting their orders filled first. I read somewhere that there a lot of long trades placed here, why are we not moving up? USD is not strong, I know, I live in the US.
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,008
  • Feb 26, 2012 4:24pm Feb 26, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting e585009
Another drop? Jeez!!! My long trade to 1.0804 has now become an investment. hahahaha. Well at least we are getting 9% positive swap, but I would prefer ching-ching of the cash register.
Just keep holding it, the price will return above that level. If you have the leverage, add more longs at a lower price to get your aggregate down
  • #41,009
  • Feb 26, 2012 4:27pm Feb 26, 2012 4:27pm
Quoting e585009
In the AUD market open, is the AUD/USD stuck in this 3-4 pip range because the BEARS from the very end last week are getting their orders filled first. I read somewhere that there a lot of long trades placed here, why are we not moving up? USD is not strong, I know, I live in the US.
Wait another 20mins or so
  • #41,010
  • Feb 26, 2012 4:29pm Feb 26, 2012 4:29pm
Quoting diggo
Just keep holding it, the price will return above that level. If you have the leverage, add more longs at a lower price to get your aggregate down
That is what I am hoping for ..
I have a excel spreadsheet that i created with a somewhat conservative trading plan that currently only allows me to open 1 trade at a time. All I need is another $1,900 US, and I will move into the option to open 2 at a time.
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,011
  • Edited 4:47pm Feb 26, 2012 4:37pm | Edited 4:47pm
Quoting e585009
That is what I am hoping for ..
I have a excel spreadsheet that i created with a somewhat conservative trading plan that currently only allows me to open 1 trade at a time. All I need is another $1,900 US, and I will move into the option to open 2 at a time.
Ah ok. I advise getting more capital if you want to be successful. Or, decrease your lot sizes to mini's or micro's so you can open 5-10 smaller positions at different prices.

Btw, for you guys outside of aus, there is a political leadership vote released at 10am Sydney time, or in just 25mins. Not sure how much effect this will have on the currency, however I suspect it could be good for the aud if Kevin Rudd is elected.

EDIT: Looks like a Gillard win is likely..

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politi...227-1tx1w.html
  • #41,012
  • Feb 26, 2012 5:08pm Feb 26, 2012 5:08pm
Quoting diggo
Ah ok. I advise getting more capital if you want to be successful. Or, decrease your lot sizes to mini's or micro's so you can open 5-10 smaller positions at different prices.

Btw, for you guys outside of aus, there is a political leadership vote released at 10am Sydney time, or in just 25mins. Not sure how much effect this will have on the currency, however I suspect it could be good for the aud if Kevin Rudd is elected.

EDIT: Looks like a Gillard win is likely..

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politi...227-1tx1w.html...

Current lot size is .45, current balance is $8,200 USD .. account type is STANDARD .. is this too risky? ... Free margin is always high .. I'm in the USA, so leverage is 50:1.
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,013
  • Feb 26, 2012 5:19pm Feb 26, 2012 5:19pm
Quoting lebleup
Are you thinking the 38.2 fib retracement on the day? You might have swapped a couple of numbers there.
I don't use FIBS and I am not thinking of a big drop in a single day. More like an objective to be hit before we retest the highs of last week.

I mainly use P&F charts so I am not time dependent only price level.
  • #41,014
  • Feb 26, 2012 5:33pm Feb 26, 2012 5:33pm
Price is dropping because of an election result? Who won?......Adolf?
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #41,015
  • Feb 26, 2012 6:10pm Feb 26, 2012 6:10pm
Gillard won with a 73 to Rudds 29

A genius is born every minute, me I am lucky if my socks match.
  • #41,016
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:14pm Feb 26, 2012 9:14pm
Quoting e585009
Current lot size is .45, current balance is $8,200 USD .. account type is STANDARD .. is this too risky? ... Free margin is always high .. I'm in the USA, so leverage is 50:1.
really risky
  • #41,017
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:16pm Feb 26, 2012 9:16pm
Quoting e585009
Price is dropping because of an election result? Who won?......Adolf?
I remember I think the Dow dropped almost 3% when Obama got inaugurated. lol
  • #41,018
  • Feb 27, 2012 2:53am Feb 27, 2012 2:53am
http://forexmagnates.com/volbroker-t...atility-index/

awesome news!

Quote
Volbroker, the FX options trading platform operated by two interdealer brokers and a consortium of banks, will today begin publishing market rates on the volatility levels of seven key currency pairs, paving the way for a currency volatility index, or fear index, for the first time.
  • #41,019
  • Feb 27, 2012 3:17am Feb 27, 2012 3:17am
AUDUSD following the SPX500 down. Strong corelation.... yet again

Seems to be fighting hard to cling to 10660
  • #41,020
  • Feb 27, 2012 9:59am Feb 27, 2012 9:59am
Quoting Zeroh
I remember I think the Dow dropped almost 3% when Obama got inaugurated. lol

Actually I think it was 8 % in two days..
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