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Daily Chart w/ 10sma

  • #561
  • Feb 23, 2012 7:10pm Feb 23, 2012 7:10pm
Hey Don555,

I've been monitoring my current open positions:

1. GBPNZD: SELL 1.8847, SL 1.9006, TP 1.8685, Current Price 1.8812, Pips +37
2. AUDUSD: SELL 1.0671, SL 1.0872, TP 1.0583, Current Price 1.0729 Pips -58
3. USDCAD: BUY 0.9995, SL 0.9950, TP 1.0012, Current Price 0.9975, Pips -25

Total: -46 Pips at the moment, but these are open positions.

Current Analysis,
1. GBPNZD - 1.8777, is the support it is currently going down to test, if broken, next support target will be 1.8580 area.
2. AUDUSD - Is sitting at around the 61.8% Fib retracement at 1.0732, this looks to be the resistance and is holding up at the moment. This should trend down from here if the trade is to be valid. I think I went to early on this and should have waited for the retracement to complete before entering. Lesson learned. Still holding.
3. USDCAD may have been a bad decision as it looks like it may trend further down, the daily however is currently moving upwards, so I will hang in on this one and monitor, if I see that it starts to sharply move down, I will cut my loss here, better to fight another day


I'm currently watching the GBPUSD pair, it's currently retracing from the break of the 10SMA. I'm looking at a SELL with an entry at around the 1.5762 (50% Fib) or 1.5790 (61.8% Fib).

Screenshot attached.

How are you going?

Cheers,
Miike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU.jpg Size: 211 KB
  • #562
  • Feb 23, 2012 7:24pm Feb 23, 2012 7:24pm
Quoting don555
Why is no one responding tonight
easy, don! it is a daily trade thread... prices dont move like H1/H4 or lower tf.

i am out on oz n gbp with a loss... usd is weakening!

may my long on gold works out!

trade well!
  • #563
  • Feb 23, 2012 7:50pm Feb 23, 2012 7:50pm
GBPUSD is looking like it could form perfectly. Its very bullish right now though, i would trade it with caution. What do you all think regarding that pair ?
Several pairs are bound between small ranges, im not liking this current enviornment too much.
  • #564
  • Feb 23, 2012 11:07pm Feb 23, 2012 11:07pm
Hi Guys,

I've been in this trade for a while now, but it is now signalling an entry.

GBPNZD hit the trend line resistance, then close below the 10SMA, with the 200SMA in down trend. it's currently sitting right on the support line at around 1.8784, if broken it will head down to the next support at 1.8642.

Note: 1.8542 is the lowest I have in my chart from 2008-2012, anyone know the next support pre-2008? I don't have time to get historical data.

Screenshot attached.

Cheers,
Miike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GN.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #565
  • Feb 25, 2012 1:19am Feb 25, 2012 1:19am
Hi Guys,

Closed my GBPNZD at a small BE+10. So happy with the small profit before it went up quickly.

With this strategy:
Weekly P/L: +62.2 pips

Current open positions:
AUDUSD:
Sell: 1.0671
SL: 1.0760
TP: 1.0660
Pips: -23.6

USDCAD
Buy: 0.9995
SL: 0.9962
TP: 1.0022
Pips: -0.2

How did everyone else go?

Cheers,
Miike
  • #566
  • Feb 25, 2012 3:09am Feb 25, 2012 3:09am
Hi BK,
Great system, well done

Maybe you could consider refining your entries and exits?

Entries
ie do not take a new trade unless its from an area where we expect a price to start trending
Where do new trends start from -
1 After a period of consolidation (breakout)
2 A trend reversal
3 A trend continuation

If our entry is not from one of these areas - then our trade is not likely to amount to much

Exits
Also when we are in a winning trade, we could consider an exit prior to price crossing our ma if:
We get evidence of price weakening or price velocity at an unsustainable extreme

The problems are we need some means of identifying when these situations occur/likely occur

I would really appreciate your and other members views on this and how they identify the conditions mentioned above

From another old timer
Keep up the good work
  • #567
  • Feb 25, 2012 9:59am Feb 25, 2012 9:59am
Hi Mike,

I love what the D1 w/ 10 SMA strategy has done for my trading. I am much more R and S adn candle savvy; however, I admit my main trading chart is the H4 using 3,10,21, and 200 SMA's with D1 and W1 for confirmation. I study the H4 for trend corresponding with strong SMA angles. I have done well trading long both the EUR/CAD and the EUR/AUD the past two trading days; these pairs remain open. If I did not find these trade by using the D1 w/ 10 SMA strategy, I may not have entered the trades.

Good trading,

Judy
  • #568
  • Feb 25, 2012 12:29pm Feb 25, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting Chicajudy
Hi Mike,

I love what the D1 w/ 10 SMA strategy has done for my trading. I am much more R and S adn candle savvy; however, I admit my main trading chart is the H4 using 3,10,21, and 200 SMA's with D1 and W1 for confirmation. I study the H4 for trend corresponding with strong SMA angles. I have done well trading long both the EUR/CAD and the EUR/AUD the past two trading days; these pairs remain open. If I did not find these trade by using the D1 w/ 10 SMA strategy, I may not have entered the trades.

Good trading,

Judy
Judy what do you mean by/ I am much more R and S adn candle savvy
  • #569
  • Feb 25, 2012 1:05pm Feb 25, 2012 1:05pm
Hi Miike,

I do not place a trade before I draw Resistance and Support lines on H4, D1, W1 charts. "Adn" was a typo that should have been spelled "and."

Good trading,

Judy
  • #570
  • Feb 25, 2012 6:58pm Feb 25, 2012 6:58pm
Hi Judy,
Very nice

How do you use your ma's?
Do you look for the 10 and 21 ma's to start running equi distant from each other indicating a steady sustainable trend, the wait for price to break above the last nearby resistance (pivot high)?, and then enter

How do you exit, a break and close below the 10sma on the 4hr chart?
The last bar on the EURAUD H4 chart looks a bit ominous - who knows

well done, thank you
  • #571
  • Feb 25, 2012 7:05pm Feb 25, 2012 7:05pm
Long AudUsd @1.0716 (-23pips)
Chort UsdCad @0.9985 (-9pips)

Had a good run with eurjpy though...

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #572
  • Feb 25, 2012 8:21pm Feb 25, 2012 8:21pm
Hi Lizpet,

I enter a trade on the H4 after the 3 and 10 SMA's have crossed and have angle and separation. I will not enter a trade if support or resistance (depending on the trade) are too nearby. With the EUR/AUD, I drew a W1 fibo. The pair has a long way to go to hit R and consolidation just above 50% retracement; however, I will monitor whether the (H4) 3 and 10 SMA's to see if they cross in the opposite direction. If the latter happens, I will exit and wait for another possible entry with the same pair or look elsewhere for an entry. I use the 21 SMA for extra proof of a trend.

It would be wonderful to see a long trend with both the EUR/CAD and the EUR/AUD. We shall see.

Thank you for your questions.

Judy
  • #573
  • Edited 9:01pm Feb 25, 2012 8:44pm | Edited 9:01pm
Quoting FaRa13
GBPUSD is looking like it could form perfectly. Its very bullish right now though, i would trade it with caution. What do you all think regarding that pair ?
Several pairs are bound between small ranges, im not liking this current enviornment too much.
Hi FaRa,
Like you , I think this pair is in a trading range just now - but who's to say that it will not breakout although the odds are that resistance will hold

The 4hr chart builds the daily chart and the 4hr chart now shows price was rejected, forming a shooting star? at the last "major" high
So it looks like the odds are that some form of reversal is going to occur
(and the 1hr chart is showing a large bearish engulfing candle)

Regards
Peter
PS If you convert your candlestick chart to a line chart, the trace often gives a good indication of what to expect next and when we take a new (or exit a trade)trade, it can pay to make sure that the line chart confirms our trade ie a break of the current hi/lo sequence agrees with our trade, the last pivot lo/hi has been breached, a trendline has been breached , a pattern has been breached etc, etc which ever applies
I mainly use the line charts to locate support and resistance levels
  • #574
  • Feb 25, 2012 11:39pm Feb 25, 2012 11:39pm
Hi Judy,
Thank you for the explanation of your use of your ma's - logical
Using the 3/10 ma cross ties in very nicely with BK's cross of the 10sma

Personally I use the 8ema - and use the same trading principle as BK

I do not like giving back too much profit and often exit a trade before price breaks the 10sma (8ema), which tends to defeat the reason for using the 10sma - but that's just me
I use various methods for this but the most simple is the use of the simple line chart and the application of Dow Theory ie for an uptrend -a trend is in place so long as it keeps making higher highs and higher lows (obviously the opposite applies for a downtrend) a break of this sequence indicates an end of the trend, price will either go sideways or reverse

Have a nice day
Peter
  • #575
  • Feb 26, 2012 5:48am Feb 26, 2012 5:48am
Not much happening on the daily - but the 4hr charts look promising and could lead to trades on the daily

Here are some on the 4hr charts that may be worth following up
GBPAUS - short
AUDCAD - short
EURGBP - short
AUSUSD - short
AUDCHF looks like a reversal forming - watch for a long

The YEN is getting hammered by all the other currencies and is starting to look a bit over extended - but trends can go farther than one reasonably expects..........

Take care
  • #576
  • Feb 26, 2012 8:53am Feb 26, 2012 8:53am
Quoting Chicajudy
Hi Mike,

I love what the D1 w/ 10 SMA strategy has done for my trading. I am much more R and S adn candle savvy; however, I admit my main trading chart is the H4 using 3,10,21, and 200 SMA's with D1 and W1 for confirmation. I study the H4 for trend corresponding with strong SMA angles. I have done well trading long both the EUR/CAD and the EUR/AUD the past two trading days; these pairs remain open. If I did not find these trade by using the D1 w/ 10 SMA strategy, I may not have entered the trades.

Good trading,

Judy
excellent, judy.
i like our trading method too.
would you consider to open a thread on your trading method?
i will sure subscribe.
i would like to explore further your trading method especially h4/d cross reference.
what do u think?

cheers
  • #577
  • Feb 26, 2012 9:59am Feb 26, 2012 9:59am
Quoting sniperfxmy
excellent, judy.
i like our trading method too.
would you consider to open a thread on your trading method?
i will sure subscribe.
i would like to explore further your trading method especially h4/d cross reference.
what do u think?

cheers

I would also subscribe to the above method
  • #578
  • Feb 26, 2012 12:20pm Feb 26, 2012 12:20pm
We have had a few pairs close with a full candle so I am curious as to how they will play out. Several have closed at resistance area or 200sma so keep your eye on this.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy227.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud227.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad227.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy227.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd227.gif Size: 22 KB
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #579
  • Feb 26, 2012 12:23pm Feb 26, 2012 12:23pm
These full or nearly full candles are interesting to me
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud227.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad227.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy227.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpnzd227.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd227.gif Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdchf227.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy227.gif Size: 22 KB
Please ask questions and share your experiences with us all!
  • #580
  • Feb 26, 2012 1:06pm Feb 26, 2012 1:06pm
Quoting bkg102665
These full or nearly full candles are interesting to me
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hi BKG,

Sincere thanks for this very, very helpful thread.

And, also for this latest (detailed) watch list.

Almost, all the pairs appear to be at cross roads.

In such a case, how do we decide the next trade ?

Do we re-evaluate these pairs at the market opening this evening or at the close of daily candle on Monday evening (Sunday daily candle being insignificant - only one or two hours in duration) ?

Need your guidance, please.

Regards.
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