Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

Wha??? Be gone with you, sir! Don't you know that this system is the one and only Holy Grail of Forex trading, and that as such there are no losses?!? I take back all those nice things I just said about you. You are obviously not worthy to carry the SSBO name!

Good Day Sir!

(Now I have to wonder how many humorless morons will think I'm being serious...)

HI FH, great job with the GBPUSD CZ today. I agree 100% that patience is key. I missed out on this trade today, but learnt a lot from it.

That gave me the best laugh of the morning!! ROFL. :-)

Ha ha, never ceases to amaze me that some traders just dont seem to be able to accept that losses are a normal part of trading, and that money management is as important as the strategy. Those seeking the 'holy grail' seem to flit from one strategy to another expecting to be given everything for nothing, without ever bothering to understand the market they are trading in. Not that it bothers me so much because their badly placed entries and stops just add fresh stimulus to breakout strategies like yours FH. As long as they keep losing pips someone will gladly pick them up and bank them.

I dont mind losses at all, in fact I've come to sort of 'chersh' them. They are a learning opportunity and also if I take a hit on say GBPCHF then my averages tell me that the next three will be winners. So 1% lost will turn into 5% gained on that pair over the next couple of weeks or so.

I have a mate in sales who counts his rejections. He knows that on average for every 11 calls he makes he gets a sale, so he ticks down the rejections knowing he is moving ever closer to a win.

Hi Forexhard

Thank you for sharing your wisdom, also nice job coding the indicator

Slightly long winded post, but I have much to say so apologies in advance if it drags on a bit..... feel free to take a nap half way through... lol !

Im 3 years a full time professional trader and have not been on here for a while, learnt a lot more on FF than I give credit for in the past. But its all part of the road to education, you cannot avoid it. So I like to revisit from time to time as there are some great threads on here, yours included.

Many that look at your thread are maybe desperate for that one system that will turn there fortunes around overnight and solve all there financial problems, but the harsh reality is there isnt a Holy Grail, you have to put in the long hours required, chart time and learning that is nesscary to become a profitable trader. It isnt easy and perserverance is required in bucket loads..........but its definately possible to do. For me its not uncommon still now to be at my charts 15 hous a day 7 days a week....yes I said 7 days a week as I look at my charts and learn at the weekends also even when the market is closed.

My only problem today using your breakout strategy is that I got out way too early, Cable and EU just tanked today, AU was a winner also for me and unfortunately I wasnt in on EJ.

But 6% profit so must not grumble, could have been way more, so I need to work on my trade management skills further.....

Which brings me onto my point..... I read many traders on your thread talking about false breakouts, filters and losing etc.

There is no such thing as "confirmation" in trading, if there was then we would never lose another trade, so stop trying to find filters in indicators, all they will do is prevent you from entering.......accept that losing is required for you to win and that Money Management and Trade mangement is far more important than entry.

Good Money Management will keep your account from being wiped out if your wrong several times in a row, which is pretty normal stuff, Good Trade Management will ensure you maximise profits when the market is giving them out to you to take, today is a perfect example.

Later


ab

Well said ab1

heya ab1,

those two losing trades i mentioned, now down to one losing trade and the other loss has halved. I'm learning to be more patient, less impulsive, trust in the strategy more. GBPCHF came within a pip of my SL, it was while i wasn't at my pc, now it's only 11 pips below my entry point.

HxT, is this what you're seeing? I guess you took the Long here? I would have too, had I been watching it.

I can guarantee that there will be a nice breakout from this zone. Just don't ask me when or what direction. Be prepared for anything.

Hi ab1,

Yes. I am the one who takes it early as well. Many instances that the crude oil market is way gone before a confirmation. When it happens, opportunities are lost. I'd rather risk manage the account and go for the plan. eg, 2 trades, cover for insurance and let the second one run off.

Hi lordalfa

Yes thats one way of doing it, splitting trades, it serves two purposes I guess, one it puts your head at rest when you take some profit off and relax's you to let the second part run.

Ive tried lots of different ways of taking profits and there are a dozen more systems for money management and scaling in and out of trades, but for me personally I dont split positions anymore as I found that if the 2nd half dosent take off for at least equal profit of the 1st trade it messes up the risk reward calculations and losers have a larger impact on your account as there not split and become worth double losers to your account in effect.

Example would be that taking everything off at 20 pips is the same as taking half off at 20 pips and the remaining balance off at 40 pips.

Theres no perfect way, but I just prefer trying to stay in for as long as I can for the whole amount

There is no perfect way.

A very sure way is when you use the breakout indicator, most of the times 61.8 extension always gets taken out. Though the risk of 30 ticks to a profit of 17 to 20 ticks is not a 1:1 RR, if you can observe, the win rate is quite high and the exposure short.

My wife does it that way. I think women are less complicated in trading. She just places her entries and does some other thing. She just increases the lot size as her account grows.

She doesn't use the indicator. She just draws the lines and that's it. Maybe I am blind.

Hi HX

Breakout stratagies always carry the risk of once you get an entry, price will have already moved a considerable amount to get there in the first place, ie the Breakout and there is no guarantee price will continue in your direction, hence my previous comment that "confirmation" dosent really exisit in trading, we just have rules in our trading plan that when these rules are met we enter.

Most of my strategies involve getting in when price is going in the opposite direction, ie against me, for example a retracement, Ill get in on a pull back to S&R of some description, on the assumption that price will reverse when it gets there in my favour, this means if Im right that risk is at that point at its lowest, so I can have a small stop and therefore reward is at its highest, but again sometimes it isnt a retracement but a reversal and you get stopped out, so its a game of probability and you can not tell really which way price will go at any given time. As ForexHard points out, he knows from consolidation there will be a breakout, but which direction and by how much by he can not tell us.

I needed a momentum type trade entry and think that Forexhard has kindly provided us with a great way to predict that. Its just getting used to the fact that no one method will be flawless or perfect, trading is a numbers game.

cheers


ab

I do agree. Oil is so volatile that range extensions to both ends is really possible. I have seen it. You can ride the direction you want but you cannot be that greedy. You can get the signal to go the opposite direction but do you want to? Have you met your daily objective? Just like FH has said, do not over trade.

100 ticks with 1 contract on oil is already $1000. I know of oil traders that only take 20 ticks a day with 10 contracts and end the day in a few seconds. There are times they are wrong. So tough luck.

This is a business. Be sure not to lose too much but win more. In any business, you will lose some deals. This is no exception. If you keep losing consecutively, close all trades, take a walk, cool off and come back the next day or two.

I do not recommend anyone to try oil unless you are extremely comfortable with extremely high volatility. Forex becomes like watching paint dry after oil.

I use MT4 FXCM continuous contract to plot after a few weeks using sqalou's indicator but I trade using Ninjatrader. Previously, it was just manual line plots using Ninja.

For riding out the trade in your direction, I find Ninja's chart trader more effective.

it's absolutely awesome, thank you forexhard, it will work better by combining price action and VSA

best wishes for you always...

I only just started looking at this strategy on Friday so I guess I have been lucky in respect of the moves that took place, looking back over the previous week on EU when it was ranging this would have tested many of you guys, especially anyone new to trading to the limit Im guessing.

Ive attached a picture for discussion of EU from Monday to Friday. (sorry couldnt fit in Monday on the Picture, but there was 1 loser and 1 breakeven, based on my rules of trade mangement, but I have included that days results into the analysis in the picture)

1)The Yellow outlined boxes are my trading hours, 0700 GMT to 1700 GMT, so any signals in this area would have been taken.

2) Small Green horizontal lines are my entry based on the rules.

3) My profits are based on my own Trade management EA that would have locked in profits behind certain candles, which may be different to yours.

So just interested to know how everyone couped with this bad week on EU.

Cheers

ab

forexhard,

I did spend some time reading your thread, thank you for not closing it

I have done my first attempt to trade on friday, it seems it went fine, but can you comment on it please? was the consolidation boxes correctly placed? is the enry point to late should I have got in earlier?

Thank you

Just wanted to add to my last post, a few back, that after reading a lot more of the thread last night and today that I may have been a little early and over eager with the questions.

So Ill be quiet for a bit until I understand it all inside and out as reading more has started to answer some things for me.... no surprise there I guess !!

Two things I totally agree about are.......

1) Over trading is the kiss of death, in November I made 65% growth and most of my trading per day only lasted 1 hour. I just stopped when my daily target % was reached. Bummer having to go fishing and play golf for the rest of the day
2) Trade what you see, not what you think, the market can go in any direction at any point.

I Look forward to reading and learning further........

cheers

ab

I feel like its a ghost town around here, not very active !

Took EU short, I got to my screen slightly late and the entry had already triggered, but that has got me in at a slightly better price and reduced risk. Will consider going to BE if it reaches 25 pips depending on how price action looks, which is about half the average sell distance, which is 53 pips.

Stop at about 31 pips

GU is also shaping up for a short signal, but not quite ready yet

Hi ab1

I think that your box settings are quite hm "relaxed" i would say. Your EU chart shows 71 boxes which according to FH its too much (he recomended this figure to be between 30 and 50 - that would produce better quality CZs).For example my EU indi shows 45 boxes (3.2 per week).

Just my thoughts on your charts.

Regards
A.