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  • #24,301
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:31pm Feb 24, 2012 1:31pm
.........just point shoot and send..........oh my, oh my, where are we going?

...........http://thechive.com/2012/02/17/just-...rld-35-photos/

quite a collection of useless waiste of time, but........

http://thechive.files.wordpress.com/...pg?w=500&h=374
The Chonchy
  • #24,302
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:36pm Feb 24, 2012 1:36pm
The above mention is by far the best I've seen from your adventurous boredom......
  • #24,303
  • Feb 24, 2012 2:35pm Feb 24, 2012 2:35pm
Hearing rumours that S&P may define any credit swap a default - much like Fitch did a few days ago...

Tin hats and bunker time may well be upon us.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #24,304
  • Feb 25, 2012 6:28pm Feb 25, 2012 6:28pm
Now that's what I call flexibility!

HOLLA


Quoting chonchy
..........or her.........

http://thechive.files.wordpress.com/...pg?w=500&h=758
  • #24,305
  • Feb 26, 2012 2:30am Feb 26, 2012 2:30am
Hi All,

How about this.

Look great ..............ha !
Attached Image
  • #24,306
  • Feb 26, 2012 3:22am Feb 26, 2012 3:22am
Petrol prices have been mentioned a little as of late in this thread, and short of penning my own little ditty, I found an article that neatly summarises what would have been my opinion, and goes some way to explaining the recent oil price increase.

We are being bent over once more...

Coiped from: http://usa-wethepeople.com/2012/02/h...ices-increase/

Every four years or so, election years of 2008 and 2012, gas prices spike up, and all the talking heads give their spin on why this happens. The left blame speculators, the right blames lack of supply and the truth gets lost in useless arguments. What ends up happening is people receive misinformation about economics.


So what are the facts?

Prices are determined by supply and demand. That is the beginning but there are other factors, “independent” variables, which can affect supply and demand.

The “independent” variables for demand are;

1. Income. If a good or service is “normal” people want more of it when they make more money, demand will increase. If it is inferior, they want less. People generally buy less fast food when their incomes rise.

The real disposable personal income has dropped from $32,814 from when Obama was inaugurated in January 2009 to $32,458 today. A decrease of 1.1%. So if gas prices were $1.84 a gallon when Obama was inaugurated we would expect them to be about $1.82 all things being equal.


Oil production supply is relatively "inelastic" in the short run. Drilling crews, machinery, leases, political hurdles, all have to be overcome before production begins

2. Price of related goods. Unfortunately with the exception of the Chevy Volt there are no substitutes for gas during this time frame, 2009 to today.


We subsidize farmers to grow corn for ethanol, driving up food prices, while imposing tariffs on cheap, $2.00 a gallon Brazilian bio-fuel. If Washington DC eliminated the tariffs on the $2.00 Brazilian bio-fuel we could lower the cost of both fuel and food at the same time. Corn farmers would be priced out of the ethanol market and would have to substitute back to food production, but with the current crop of corrupt politicians this will never happen.

3. Taste. This variable has not changed significantly since 2009. People prefer cars to bikes and scooters.

4. Population and demographics. The population has increased from 306,208,000 to 313,020, or a 2.22% increase. Using our baseline of $1.84 for gas the price today should be about $1.88 a gallon.

5. Expected future prices. This is the most controversial of the five. Nancy Pelosi refers to this variable as “speculators” and she is correct. If consumers expect higher prices they will, if possible, consumer more today. They are speculators forecasting into the future. There is nothing Nancy, or the federal government can do about speculation. It’s like legislating against cow flatulence. The only way to stop it is to kill a bunch of cows.


Tensions between Israel and Iran can play a role in the price of oil

Also playing into expected future prices is world politics. If Saudi Arabia does not like the Obama Administration they can cut back on oil production, or threaten to cut back, and prices will increase.


If Israel does not want to see the Obama Administration re-elected they can pick a fight with Iran, or pretend to be picking a fight with Iran.

If Iran is suffering from inflation and desperately needs higher oil prices, and their number one export is crude oil, they might choose to play along with Israel in the mutually beneficial game of war chicken, hoping one or the other will back down at the last minute.

While the tensions between the two are high they both enjoy the desired results, bad publicity for the Obama Administration, more revenue for Iran. As long as the game does not go into a actual “hot” war both win. This is sometimes referred to as a Nash Equilibrium and/or dominate strategy.

The “independent” variables for supply are;

1. Price of inputs. This would not be the end product, oil, but the cost associated with producing oil. Workers wages, drilling equipment, leasing land, and so forth.

For this example we will assume the cost is directly translated into a price increase. Of course in the “real” world there would be a lot of mitigating circumstances, such as the elasticity of demand, inelasticity, and other factors. But here we will keep it simple and assume there is a direct, one to one, correlation between these variables.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has increased from 211.962 (1982-84 dollars= 100 MSA) to 227.505, a 7.3% increase or translated to $1.97 for a gallon of gas. The Producer Price Index has increased 17.1% or translated to $2.15 a gallon.

2. Technological change. For petroleum production there has not been a dramatic change since 2009 that I am aware of. Assume this has had a negligible affect on the price.


Gas prices going up

3. Price of substitutes in production. Again, the only viable substitute is Brazilian bio-fuel, which is not allowed to compete because of tariffs.


4. Number of firms in the marketplace. There has not been substantial entry or exit since 2009.

5 Expected future prices. Suppliers “speculate” the same as consumers do. And this is where Obama plays a role in gas prices TODAY. If oil producers see the Obama Administration doing everything in its power to suppress supply, no new leases, regulations, more taxes, then it will have a effect on the price TODAY.

Why would it not?

Does Nancy Pelosi want to outlaw rational thought? Speculators are doing the best they can to deal with reality. If the President of the United States is hostile to oil production and consumption why would this not be reflected in the price of gasoline?

On the flip side if the president announced 100% support for the oil industry, drilling on a first come, first serve basis, prices would drop TODAY based on future expected increase in supply.

World supply has increased 2.2% from 2009 to 2010, 80,278 thousands of barrels daily to 82,095. Demand has increased from 84,714 to 87,382, 3.1%. The biggest increase in consumption was 5.3%, from the Asian Pacific countries including China and India.

The discrepancy between the amount of oil produced and/or imported and the amount consumed and/or exported is due to the omission of stock changes, refinery gains, and other complicating factors.

So based on increased consumption and the inelasticity of demand for crude oil, -0.06, translated, for every 10% increase in price consumers consume 0.6% less of the product, we can estimate that the price would increase to roughly $2.02 a gallon taking into account also the inelastic supply of oil production. Since I only have 2010 data let’s add on another 18 cents and make the price $2.20 per gallon.

From the previous data we know that all things being equal the price of gas should be about, in a worse case scenario, say about $2.50 a gallon. An educated guess, nothing more than that. Not pleasant but nowhere near the $3.70 a gallon today that we pay.

So what happened?

Now let’s put together a simple model.

If we have 100 gallons of gas, 100 customers, and $100 dollars split 100 ways consumers will buy a gallon of gas for $1 a gallon.

Simple.

That is supply and demand. If there is more supply, 200 gallons of gas, the price drops to 50 cents a gallon. If the supply is 50 gallons the price will increase to $2.00 a gallon. Notice that price acts as a rationing device, everyone gets what they need, and what is available, and not what they want.

If the number of dollars increased to $200 the price will go up to $2.00 a gallon if the supply remains stable at 100 gallons.

Did you get that?

One of the big factors that is overlooked by the talking head “economist” is the relationship between printing dollars, the Federal Reserve, and inflation.

Simply put all that Obama Administration spending has to come from three sources;

1. Taxes. Tax receipts as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) since 2009 have been 15.1%, 15.1%, and 15.4% of the GDP. Historically this percent has been around 18%. Spending has increased to 25.2%, 24.1%, and 24.1% of the GDP. This is important as will be explained.

2. Borrowing. This is not necessarily inflationary. Remember when you borrow from person x, person x forgoes consumption, but must be paid back in interest.


Federal Debt held by the Federal Reserve up 238% since Obama's inauguration in January 2009

3. Printing money. Extremely inflationary. Deadly. Something to be avoided at all cost. Some economist call it monetizing the debt, others counterfeiting, other increased “liquidity.” It all depends on your perspective. From Main Street it simply means Wall Street, Washington DC, the elites, get the use of printed cash first, and Main Street pays for it in the form of inflation. The elites get the sugar and we get the you know what.


So what is the record of the Federal Reserve and the Obama Administration for printing money?
.
Federal debt held by the Federal Reserve for January 2009 was $492.3 billion and is currently $1.6647 trillion, a 238% increase.

Since the September 2008, before the TARP bailouts, the monetary base has increased from $886 billion to $2.7 trillion, a 206% increase.

Gold is up 82% since 2009 and many economists’ think that it is undervalued based on the inflationist policies of the Federal Reserve.
.
The 800 pound elephant in the room no one wants to talk about is federal spending and the inflationary policies of the Federal Reserve. Politicians do not want to talk about this, Republicans and Democrats, because the smart ones know this is a hidden tax on all Americans, poor, rich, white, black, that for most is invisible.


Monetary Base, the total amount of a currency that is either circulated in the hands of the public or in the commercial bank deposits held in the central bank's reserves. This measure of the money supply typically only includes the most liquid currencies

When the price of eggs goes up from 99 cents to $1.49, to $1.99 does anyone really notice?
.
Does anyone make the connection between the Obama Administration spending too much money and paying more for eggs?
.
No, but they should.
.
Jimmy Carter learned that big inflation numbers could cost him the election and the CPI was changed in July 1980 to deemphasize food and energy, the items that have the lowest “inelastic” numbers, or more simply things people need and are willing to buy at almost any price in the short term. Today the official “core” inflation rate is 2.9%.


I will submit to you that the biggest factor in the increase in gas prices is the Federal Reserve and the Obama Administrations reckless spending policies, followed by increase demand in the Pacific Rim countries, then global political tensions, and finally the Obama Administrations obstructionist energy policies designed to restrict supply from Canada and the United States, in that order.

The lesson for the working poor and the poor on government assistance is there is no free lunch. When the government spends too much money, you pay for it in lost jobs, lower wages, and inflation.

Be careful what you wish for, it might come true.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #24,307
  • Feb 26, 2012 12:35pm Feb 26, 2012 12:35pm
Diesel is $ 4.78 and Unleaded at $4.65 here in SoCal...We are already getting raped!..When the country avg gets to 4 buck, I'll be paying over $5.30 a fking gallon....

Srew em! screw them all!


Come you masters of war
You that build all the guns
You that build the death planes
You that build the big bombs
You that hide behind walls
You that hide behind desks
I just want you to know I can see through your masks.

Bob Dylan

Inserted Video
  • #24,308
  • Feb 27, 2012 12:24am Feb 27, 2012 12:24am
Quoting 45Condor
Petrol prices have been mentioned a little as of late in this thread, and short of penning my own little ditty, I found an article that neatly summarises what would have been my opinion, and goes some way to explaining the recent oil price increase.

We are being bent over once more...

Coiped from: http://usa-wethepeople.com/2012/02/h...ices-increase/

[i]Every four years or so, election years of 2008 and 2012, gas prices spike up, and all the talking heads give their spin on why this happens. The left blame speculators,...
...........couldn't put it bether myself.........
The Chonchy
  • #24,309
  • Feb 27, 2012 12:26am Feb 27, 2012 12:26am
Quoting Chillypiper
Diesel is $ 4.78 and Unleaded at $4.65 here in SoCal...We are already getting raped!..When the country avg gets to 4 buck, I'll be paying over $5.30 a fking gallon....

Srew em! screw them all!


Come you masters of war
You that build all the guns
You that build the death planes
You that build the big bombs
You that hide behind walls
You that hide behind desks
I just want you to know I can see through your masks.

Bob Dylan

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=xrIPQxrog8M
Inserted Video
The Chonchy
  • #24,310
  • Feb 27, 2012 12:33am Feb 27, 2012 12:33am
It did not occur to me to have a look at an Fibonacci extension based on the most recent swing these last few weeks, and having closed all positions on EU last week once my TP was hit - fear of volatility due to the G20 meeting - I placed a fresh study on the chart - the yellow plot.

This shows that price was clearly heading for a halt at the 1.3664 mark/kiss of the red MAs of the Guppy profile. For those that read my muses, I often talk of 1, 2, 3 plays based on retraces that return to the red MAs. The price halt at this fib corresponds nicely to the price halt on the UC trade that I took and which again hit the expected fib extension.

I am therefore side-lined here, and from what I read so far this morning concerning the lack of significant progress in Mexico - not surprised, as some will know that I think Greece is being placed into a position whereby it has no choice but to default - I anticipate oscillation around these levels, with some potential surges one way or the other, but ultimately, noting that would currently constitute a trend in my opinion.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euw.gif Size: 52 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eud.gif Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr.gif Size: 37 KB
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #24,311
  • Feb 27, 2012 12:42am Feb 27, 2012 12:42am
Quoting WinwinFx
Hi All,

How about this.

Look great ..............ha !
.........Nice pic......
The Chonchy
  • #24,312
  • Feb 27, 2012 12:48am Feb 27, 2012 12:48am
[I am therefore side-lined here, and from what I read so far this morning concerning the lack of significant progress in Mexico - not surprised, as some will know that I think Greece is being placed into a position whereby it has no choice but to default - I anticipate oscillation around these levels, with some potential surges one way or the other, but ultimately, noting that would currently constitute a trend in my opinion.]

.........First iceland, then greece, is this the begining of world default, is it world bankruptsy? is it a force to go back to sound money by the markets it self, the markets always adjust themself when there is no manipulation, is this an atent to get the power off the hands of the evil ones?

...........No money, no wars, or no money, more wars?.......
The Chonchy
  • #24,313
  • Feb 27, 2012 1:05am Feb 27, 2012 1:05am
Inserted Video
The Chonchy
  • #24,314
  • Feb 27, 2012 1:06am Feb 27, 2012 1:06am
If we could get rid of the 5% of society that make life a misery for the rest, and then maintain a system whereby no one person or group of, could persuade the rest, we would be living in relative eutopia. Sadly, human nature is such that there will always be those vying for power.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #24,315
  • Feb 27, 2012 1:12am Feb 27, 2012 1:12am
she drives the same lawnmower as me... and I just ordered a new ground roller for the back lawn - so that I can level the lawn a little. The following comment is pathetic, but true - I'm exicited. Yeah, some people might be excited by a new car, holiday or whatever... me, a 300 Euro plastic drum that I can fill with water and drag around my lawn.

...I'm such a loser!
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #24,316
  • Feb 27, 2012 1:29am Feb 27, 2012 1:29am
............This is my view, whish is not the best for my shorts on the yurow.........

30M is down, retrace a bit to the aquaema30 and it could go to the red but I don't think so, but it could.........

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30m.gif Size: 18 KB


one hour is down, with MACD oversold but it could be like that for ever........but.....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.gif Size: 19 KB


and 4h last but not less, is down with the less significan of the tree ema's being hit and pull back, so my guess is that is a continuance of the short move, just a bether place to short now, but MACD is down there below the 0 line, and histo is aproaching the 0 line, so it could turn.......side lined on the franc, while still stupidly short ont eh yurow.......them dollar it full me.........

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h.gif Size: 21 KB
The Chonchy
  • #24,317
  • Feb 27, 2012 1:37am Feb 27, 2012 1:37am
Hmm...

I'm side-lined completely at the moment. Although my charts tell me UC wants to drop further, I still suspect that some fanfare announcement will be made from Mexico that will see the Euro saved for all of one trading session, before reality kicks in and possibly saves your shorts. The question is how much drawdown you can manage. This will help my suspicion of a possible retrace north for UC for a little while.

If I was trading Guppy profiles based on a daily and weekly for UC, I would still favour short. For EU, well, price has moved back into the red MAs, and so expect turbulence.

Yen pairs have - fir me as I have not been watching - quietly been moving against the last five-year trend. A shift occurring, perhaps, as Japan moves to closer ties with Asia?
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #24,318
  • Feb 27, 2012 1:53am Feb 27, 2012 1:53am
Quoting 45Condor
Hmm...

I'm side-lined completely at the moment. Although my charts tell me UC wants to drop further, I still suspect that some fanfare announcement will be made from Mexico that will see the Euro saved for all of one trading session, before reality kicks in and possibly saves your shorts. The question is how much drawdown you can manage. This will help my suspicion of a possible retrace north for UC for a little while.

If I was trading Guppy profiles based on a daily and weekly for UC, I would still favour short. For EU, well, price has moved...

.........Sorry 45condor, I miss the mexico part, if you post something related, I looked but didn't find it, if you please let me know again, sorry, but what is going on with mexico, thanks in advance........sorry again........
The Chonchy
  • #24,319
  • Feb 27, 2012 1:55am Feb 27, 2012 1:55am
Hi Chonchy - G20 meeting.

And as suspected, all not going smoothly:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-firewall.html
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #24,320
  • Feb 27, 2012 1:56am Feb 27, 2012 1:56am
...........I think that if it hits that line, (green doted one) with power now in london open, it may keep going, as a continuation of the down move, my 2 cents.......

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30m.gif Size: 18 KB
The Chonchy
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