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AUD/USD

  • #40,981
  • Feb 23, 2012 11:50pm Feb 23, 2012 11:50pm
This pair seems to be a bit exhausted.
  • #40,982
  • Feb 24, 2012 12:14am Feb 24, 2012 12:14am
3 Australian Banks downgraded.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...tralian-banks/
  • #40,983
  • Feb 24, 2012 12:17am Feb 24, 2012 12:17am
Quoting payal
3 Australian Banks downgraded.

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...tralian-banks/
convenient timing for the banks
Biggest joker
  • #40,984
  • Feb 24, 2012 12:48am Feb 24, 2012 12:48am
Can't ignore that opportunity for a long allbeit cautiously
Biggest joker
  • #40,985
  • Feb 24, 2012 12:55am Feb 24, 2012 12:55am
Quoting wagnermr14
I don't always follow Elliot Theory. Although accurate at times it all depends on your assumption of previous wave counts. Why I'm not convinced AUD/USD is in a wave 5 to 1.10. Look at the broken channel from the 9860 lows - the drastic drop pursuant to me confirms this channel is accurate. Now, Look at the near perfect re-test one gets when a channel is broken. Unless Aussie drives through the 10763 (76% Fibonacci of recent presumed channel break downtrend) I'm of the mind the sideways action from high of 10843 has merely been a consolidation...
Even i thought initially AUD is headed to 1.0470, but i think i was wrong in my wave count.

Right now it is trading at 1.0725, looks like it headed up to 1.0780-1.0795 area. If that is the case, then AUD can go only as low as 1.0550 area...

Also you can see a daily lower low at this area at 1.0530, my guess it might not go any lower beyond that level.

And also, the wave 5 should go 720 Pips, and i have a wave 5 target of 1.1230, so it can only go as low as 1.0530 - 1.0550 area....

This is what i see.....mate....
PPP - Patience Pays PIPS
  • #40,986
  • Feb 24, 2012 3:56am Feb 24, 2012 3:56am
Long @1.0730 TP @1.0760 ST @1.0720
  • #40,987
  • Feb 24, 2012 4:36am Feb 24, 2012 4:36am
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
Looks like the aud is on the beginning of an uptrend. Should see some surge within the next couple of hours Market should not go below 10665/70 level.
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #40,988
  • Edited 5:44am Feb 24, 2012 4:54am | Edited 5:44am
As long as 1.0750/pitchfork descending channel is not broken:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd pullback feb-mar2012.gif Size: 32 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd pullback feb-mar2012-2.gif Size: 21 KB


... and EUR/AUD shows a double bottom on daily:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud double bottom feb2012.gif Size: 14 KB


On the bullish side, upper trendline of the descending channel gives about 1.0790 as possible turn back and bearish continuation (H4), 1.0830/40 on Daily/Weekly.
  • #40,989
  • Feb 24, 2012 5:14am Feb 24, 2012 5:14am
Bull flag forming on 1m chart
  • #40,990
  • Feb 24, 2012 5:45am Feb 24, 2012 5:45am
Its taking a breather here before it moves up to 1.0760 - 1.0780
  • #40,991
  • Feb 24, 2012 6:18am Feb 24, 2012 6:18am
shorted 37 off the 15M chart, target 03, stop 49
  • #40,992
  • Feb 24, 2012 6:41am Feb 24, 2012 6:41am
moved stop to be
  • #40,993
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:29am Feb 24, 2012 7:29am
Quoting rustyram
Even i thought initially AUD is headed to 1.0470, but i think i was wrong in my wave count.

Right now it is trading at 1.0725, looks like it headed up to 1.0780-1.0795 area. If that is the case, then AUD can go only as low as 1.0550 area...

Also you can see a daily lower low at this area at 1.0530, my guess it might not go any lower beyond that level.

And also, the wave 5 should go 720 Pips, and i have a wave 5 target of 1.1230, so it can only go as low as 1.0530 - 1.0550 area....

This is what i see.....mate....

Thanks man. That's my rub, I can also see the count you are mentioning. Before this channel tag I had a AUD poss low of 10570 area which coincides with your low.

Time will tell. Either going up or down.
  • #40,994
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:55pm Feb 24, 2012 1:55pm
2012/02/24 14:19:26FX EUR/AUD: Stale shorts put in play '10 & '11 lows at 1.2920 Thomson Reuters Story

"NEW YORK, February 24 (IFR) -

A 42% drop in EUR/AUD prices from the 2008 crisis peak to this month's low has made shorts complacent
Massively oversold and bullishly divergent monthly charts are about to get a bullish weekly close today, forcing some stales short to be covered or hedged, risking a rebound to the repeated 2010 and 2011 lows by 1.2920
Inability of AUD to capitalize on latest surge in oil prices will convince some macros the bloom is off the rose for Aussie, while the EUR recovers from endless months of Greek drama
Unless eurozone fiscal/structural reforms can transform the region into a more globally competitive economic region without triggering recessions this year, we'd expect EUR/AUD recoveries to be medium-term corrections within the long-term downtrend
"
  • #40,995
  • Feb 24, 2012 3:46pm Feb 24, 2012 3:46pm
Here we go down again...Weee! I will be placing a limit buy at 1.0575 on the opening Monday morning. Have a nice weekend everyone.
  • #40,996
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:37pm Feb 24, 2012 7:37pm
The European Central Bank will lend out half a trillion euros to European banks at low rates to refinance the banks. The banks will take this cheap money and buy Audies with it to collect their 4 1/4% interest. Bears may want to short EUR/AUD? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/euro.gif
  • #40,997
  • Feb 24, 2012 11:43pm Feb 24, 2012 11:43pm
R2 1.0777
R1 1.0747
Pivot 1.0725
S1 1.0695
S2 1.0673
  • #40,998
  • Feb 25, 2012 3:06am Feb 25, 2012 3:06am
I have learned the hard way to try not to predict longer term, but i guess it is hard not to have a hint of where price might be heading and at the same time trying not to let that interfere with the shorter term trading though given the opportunity i might occasionaly let a "runner" go with just that view in mind.
Ok so here it comes, on the daily we are in overextended teritory and if you look at history from april, may. june, july last year we had a good deal of ranging going on, i don't want to see that happen this time for my "predictions" to go according to plan, certainly no more than a spike to say 1.0500, i much rather a tight consolidation and a good breakout to 1.1100 area.
Somehow i don't think price gives a $hit what baron thinks, it will do as it feels, the biggest trick out there is to accept you are wrong and follow the trail.
In saying all of the above, there's no greater satisfaction than watching price doing exactly what you have predicted AND profit from it!!
How many times have you been right but sat on the sidelines not making a dime from it?
Those times, as i have been reminded by someone who has made a lot of money from this game, don't count for anything...
I'm here to watch my account grow, all this posting is purely for spare time entertainment, successful or not the only way to improve your trading is to......keep trading!
Biggest joker
  • #40,999
  • Feb 25, 2012 10:58am Feb 25, 2012 10:58am
Thanks Barron for your insights.
As a bull, my job is to pick tops and bottoms, not an easy task. Nevertheless, I am going to call 1.075 my top. Where is my bottom?
Looking at the 4 hour chart, I draw a down trend line thru the last 3 down candles. I draw a horizontal trend line across the bottom from the spike low on 2/10 to the spike low on 2/23. These 2 lines meet at about 1.0577. So I am going to call that point my bottom; and place a buy limit order at about 1.0570 just in case price spikes down there while I am not looking. In the mean time I will watch my down trend line; and if price breaks thru it, I will call that the bottom and go long there. Will I be right? http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon5.gif
Only the forex gods know for sure.
  • #41,000
  • Edited 4:17pm Feb 25, 2012 4:13pm | Edited 4:17pm
Quoting jerrycollie
Thanks Barron for your insights.
As a bull, my job is to pick tops and bottoms, not an easy task. Nevertheless, I am going to call 1.075 my top. Where is my bottom?
Looking at the 4 hour chart, I draw a down trend line thru the last 3 down candles. I draw a horizontal trend line across the bottom from the spike low on 2/10 to the spike low on 2/23. These 2 lines meet at about 1.0577. So I am going to call that point my bottom; and place a buy limit order at about 1.0570 just in case price spikes down there while I am not looking. In the mean time...
I must admit that as much as i try to elimlnate picking tops and bottoms i still occasionaly do, but only when everything seems to fall into place.
I have been through years of ignoring advice on not picking tops and bottoms, and paid for it dearly.

Generaly picking a top or bottom is better done on fast TF's with limited risk and re-entries when stopped out, but i have found myself ignoring price trend many times because i was fixated on catching the point of reversal, resulting in wasted opportunities and losses, much easier (for an intra-day trader) to just let price show you when it has changed direction.
And the best way is none other than........

The above is not meant as advice to you, for all i know you are probably a much better trader than i am, nor am i critising anyones TA method, each to his own, i am speaking out loud of my expiriences.

Probably my only pet ridicule point is when i see someone connect any two points they picked out of nowhere with a trendline without really knowing how to draw one the right way.
Basic stuff really, actualy thinking about it we can all benefit from going back to basics, that is all you need.
Biggest joker
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