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Extreme TMA System

  • #1,001
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:06am Feb 24, 2012 1:06am
Quoting Passerby
Alex, did u mean EURJPY? If that what you mean, then you are trading against the trend. Some pair like EURJPY and USDJPY often goes with a long trend. If you are with the trend it was okay but if you against it it could be disastrous. Since I was testing this system, I never goes against a strong trend and never loose a trade (testing only for 3 days).

Al, I found to recognize TMA slope just by looking at chart often misleading as It depends on the zoom level, I wonder if we could incorporate some indie to display the TMA slope displayed...
yes a short on EUR JPY
this trade was opened before we settle the trend rule based on tma bands
  • #1,002
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:11am Feb 24, 2012 1:11am
Quoting T Bud
My father recently stumbled on this thread the other day and told me to take a look at it. So then we discussed it via skype for about an hour or so to collect our thoughts and absorb all this new information. I am 26 and have been trading on and off now for 6 years. I have searched high and low only to come up on dead end traing strategies. i have always wanted to find a way to pick the tops and bottoms to maximize profits, create confidence and minimize draw downs. I made 130 pips this morning trading 3 different pairs. i exited a trade way too...
Taylor, you have just made every single minute of hard work since I opened this thread totally worth while. I am very happy that we have contributed to your success. This is just the beginning. I expect this thread to develop into a tight knit circle of good friends who are also happen to be very successful traders.

Great trading my friend.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,003
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:11am Feb 24, 2012 1:11am
Btw, mostly I take profit on middle TMA line especially when I against a trend. But most of the time the price touch the other side of the band.
  • #1,004
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:12am Feb 24, 2012 1:12am
Quoting Favorite
You should follow the rules.

Rule number one:
"1- We will first determine trend in the TMA. If the center line is angled steeply upward we will only take long trades. If the center line is angled steeply downward we will only take short trades. If the TMA center line is approximately moving sideways or slightly angled either way we will take trades in either direction."

If it was a long trend, why you kept going short? Of course you lost every trade!
Thanks Mike, I just said something similar myself. Good job.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,005
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:14am Feb 24, 2012 1:14am
Quoting pedross
20.7 taken on the Aussie, although it produced more pips I decided to bail before edging towards Frankfurt Open...

Pete

Attachment
There is nothing wrong with taking early profits. I myself rarely stay for the full extent of the move.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,006
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:15am Feb 24, 2012 1:15am
Quoting Passerby
Btw, mostly I take profit on middle TMA line especially when I against a trend. But most of the time the price touch the other side of the band.
that's what i do too
all my trades except this short on EY were successfull
If i remember the bands were not very steepy when i entered the EY short
it went up later

so Al what is your advise to recover this EY short ?
  • #1,007
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:21am Feb 24, 2012 1:21am
Quoting Alex84
HEllo everyone

Question to my friend Al,

I have a short on EY opened tuesday, it's now -150 pips
as the trend is still up on this pair, would you recomend a recovery trade short anyway (if we wait for a short signal with bands south, it make take days), or wait for a long signal on this pair to place the recovery trade as a long ?

thanks
Not an easy question. I expect the euro to come down and the dollar and yen to climb in the next few days, but that is just my opinion. If I had known, I would have discouraged you from entering that trade. Since over a week ago the BOJ expanded their quantitative easing policy, the Yen is going to hell in a basket really fast and will continue to do so in the medium to long term. I do not recommend longs on the yen. Having said that, the yen is due for a correction and so is the euro, so you may be able to get out of that trade reasonable unscathed. If it were me, what would i do. Again, in the context that I would not have chosen that trade, I would probably place a recovery trade with the purpose of exiting at breakeven. It is risky though for the fundamental reasons I mentioned.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,008
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:25am Feb 24, 2012 1:25am
Quoting Passerby
Alex, did u mean EURJPY? If that what you mean, then you are trading against the trend. Some pair like EURJPY and USDJPY often goes with a long trend. If you are with the trend it was okay but if you against it it could be disastrous. Since I was testing this system, I never goes against a strong trend and never loose a trade (testing only for 3 days).

Al, I found to recognize TMA slope just by looking at chart often misleading as It depends on the zoom level, I wonder if we could incorporate some indie to display the TMA slope displayed...
Yes. I just posted about this. I would appreciate the help of someone that is capable to build such an indicator. It should be visually compelling with colors or arrows and not just angle numbers. Thanks.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,009
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:26am Feb 24, 2012 1:26am
Quoting Alex84
yes a short on EUR JPY
this trade was opened before we settle the trend rule based on tma bands
Alex is correct. We did not have the trend rule in place on Tuesday. I feel bad about this. I hope there is not a lot of money on the line.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,010
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:29am Feb 24, 2012 1:29am
Quoting Alorente
Not an easy question. I expect the euro to come down and the dollar and yen to climb in the next few days, but that is just my opinion. If I had known, I would have discouraged you from entering that trade. Since over a week ago the BOJ expanded their quantitative easing policy, the Yen is going to hell in a basket really fast and will continue to do so in the medium to long term. I do not recommend longs on the yen. Having said that, the yen is due for a correction and so is the euro, so you may be able to get out of that trade reasonable unscathed....
ok
why do we always think of recovery trades on same pair of the negative trade ?
why ?
what's the reason if any ?
our problem when in a negative float is just a math problem.
not a pair problem
not a trend problem
just a risk of seeing our equity reduce more, and margin going to 0
which would stop our possibilities of trading
so why just not think of a global math recovery method ?

ex : my trade is -100 pips with 1 lot
i continue trading and make a +20 pips with 1 lot on another pair
i close 0.2 lots of my negative floating trade
this first trade is now -80pips in a way (it s still -100 pips but with 0.8 lots instead of 1lot)
so go my trades
so reduces my float
when my negative float is small enough i can decide to wait for a reverse on the pair of the first trade if it seems to come, or i just continue reduce this float till 0
my balance wont grow up while i do this but my margin does come back and my equity comes up too

what s your opinion ?
  • #1,011
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:34am Feb 24, 2012 1:34am
Quoting Alorente
Alex is correct. We did not have the trend rule in place on Tuesday. I feel bad about this. I hope there is not a lot of money on the line.
no this one is on my demo one
but we need to have an answer for each case
plan A B C D
remember Al ?

so we have to settle rules for recovery
no account should go in a heavy DD

personnaly i would apply rules of my previous post as soon as a trade is -50 pips
so we already reduce its risk weight in the account
and if this negative trade finaly comes to 0
we didnt really lose pips by the recovery method
we just fastened our equity curve and our positive mental
  • #1,012
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:34am Feb 24, 2012 1:34am
Quoting Passerby
Btw, mostly I take profit on middle TMA line especially when I against a trend. But most of the time the price touch the other side of the band.
This is a very important point. This system is practically infallible if you always take profits at center line, and about 85% accurate if you always take profits on the opposite band. It is difficult to settle on where to take your profits. I usually determine this when price gets to center line. If it stalls there for 2 candles, I close the order. If it crosses center line on the first or second bar after touching it, I go on to the opposite band. There are many trades that cut right through the center line like a knife on butter. If you always take immediate profits upon touching the center line, you will miss out on the fast trades that move to the opposite band. This is an important point. Please make a mental note of this post and donīt forget it. Leaving profits on the table repeatedly, will make a huge difference on your totals at the end of the month.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,013
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:36am Feb 24, 2012 1:36am
Quoting Alorente
Alex is correct. We did not have the trend rule in place on Tuesday. I feel bad about this. I hope there is not a lot of money on the line.
Don't be, you already did an excellent job adjusting this system of yours swiftly. From the start you already mentioned that this system is under development and the one use live account should already know this. Some of us already learn the hard way not to trade against the trend. I believe even if Alex use live account, he already win more from other trade. I just felt bad that he take a short on that pair while the pair is on it's lower range on daily time frame.

PS: EU currently on decisive moment, I mentioned before that the move before just a spike. Now the vsa show that the move up also not a valid one as M30 showed a pin bar with even bigger volume, maybe London will decide the direction. But I agree that even if EU goes up it won't be much and there should be a significant correction or even a reversal.
  • #1,014
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:41am Feb 24, 2012 1:41am
Quoting Alex84
ok
why do we always think of recovery trades on same pair of the negative trade ?
why ?
what's the reason if any ?
our problem when in a negative float is just a math problem.
not a pair problem
not a trend problem
just a risk of seeing our equity reduce more, and margin going to 0
which would stop our possibilities of trading
so why just not think of a global math recovery thinking

ex : my trade is -100 pips with 1 lot
i continue trading and make a +20 pips with 1 lot on another pair
i close 0.2 lots of my negative floating trade
this first trade...
I agree with you. I only stay with a trade and try recovery trades when I believe in the trade, both fundamentally and technically. If I short something at 2 because I believe in the trade, and it goes to 3 and after reviewing the technicals I still believe in the trade, it makes even more sense to short it again at 3 with a much higher profit potential. The problem in your case, is that I donīt believe in that trade you took. You can also at this point accept that the trade was not a good one and eat crow. Itīs paid tuition for a lesson learned.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,015
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:42am Feb 24, 2012 1:42am
Quoting Alorente
This is a very important point. This system is practically infallible if you always take profits at center line, and about 85% accurate if you always take profits on the opposite band. It is difficult to settle on where to take your profits. I usually determine this when price gets to center line. If it stalls there for 2 candles, I close the order. If it crosses center line on the first or second bar after touching it, I go on to the opposite band. There are many trades that cut right through the center line like a knife...
Yup, you are right most of the time it touch the other side. I decide to exit because often the middle line act as some kind of resistance. BTW, do you trade on news? I often get caught on sudden news like yesterday.
  • #1,016
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:42am Feb 24, 2012 1:42am
Quoting Passerby
Don't be, you already did an excellent job adjusting this system of yours swiftly. From the start you already mentioned that this system is under development and the one use live account should already know this. Some of us already learn the hard way not to trade against the trend. I believe even if Alex use live account, he already win more from other trade. I just felt bad that he take a short on that pair while the pair is on it's lower range on daily time frame.
no problem guys
Al did all the best in this thread and he's a great person
I made 75 pips yesterday, no problem
i just want us to improve the recovery point of the strategy
my example is one, everybdy may face someday a negative float on a trade even if all 4 rules were perfectly met.

we have to know what to do in any situation
no problem Al, i'm ok, and i like this tma stuff !!!
  • #1,017
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:47am Feb 24, 2012 1:47am
Quoting Alex84
no this one is on my demo one
but we need to have an answer for each case
plan A B C D
remember Al ?

so we have to settle rules for recovery
no account should go in a heavy DD

personnaly i would apply rules of my previous post as soon as a trade is -50 pips
so we already reduce its risk weight in the account
and if this negative trade finaly comes to 0
we didnt really lose pips by the recovery method
we just fastened our equity curve and our positive mental
I agree with you, but it is hard to establish concrete rules on recovery, because each situation is different and should be evaluated solely on its own merits. It is impossible to establish general rules that will apply to all situations. Sometimes one makes a mistake and you cannot pray and hope that recovery will bail you out of a clear mistake. Recovery is just a tool to use when price goes irrationally against your direction and against what makes technical sense. Sooner or later the technicals win and price reverts to the other side.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,018
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:48am Feb 24, 2012 1:48am
Quoting Alex84
no problem guys
Al did all the best in this thread and he's a great person
I made 75 pips yesterday, no problem
i just want us to improve the recovery point of the strategy
my example is one, everybdy may face someday a negative float on a trade even if all 4 rules were perfectly met.

we have to know what to do in any situation
no problem Al, i'm ok, and i like this tma stuff !!!
I already read the document about recovery trading posted by Al. I think it was not applicable to your case on EJ because this pair has tendency to trend without much correction, I felt bad about your position on that pair. I think by experience this you will be a better trader in the future, at least I hope you'll be as you have your lesson and a hard one to mention. Maybe Al have more qualification on this one, I often do a recovery trade on EU but with same lot size as the previous entry.
  • #1,019
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:51am Feb 24, 2012 1:51am
Quoting Passerby
Yup, you are right most of the time it touch the other side. I decide to exit because often the middle line act as some kind of resistance. BTW, do you trade on news? I often get caught on sudden news like yesterday.
I keep an eye on news but they never affect my trading one way or the other. My trades are based on the technicals with some fundamental background but not much.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #1,020
  • Feb 24, 2012 1:56am Feb 24, 2012 1:56am
Last night I mentioned that a USD/JPY long, had the potential to become a great trade. I wish I had listend to myself. I would have woken up this morning to a an +80 pip profit. I donīt remember who but one of you took the trade. Congratulations.
Observation is the path to discovery.
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