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Extreme TMA System

  • #921
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:31pm Feb 23, 2012 2:31pm
Quoting grechmar
Shorted e/uad too and placed short on eu/usd @ 1.3375
I thought about it also but I didnīt dare yet. Youīll probably do well with it.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #922
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:35pm Feb 23, 2012 2:35pm
Quoting maudur
Al, back here. I've been very busy and I couldn't keep an eye on Forex.

Why talk about a long AUDNZD? Although the band has not touched bottom.

Also now you talk about going for only 10 pips on some orders, I see that I have read much of what I missed, because this is not the original strategy.

Thank you. Y muchos éxitos!!!
When in doubt get out. If price is having trouble with a S/R level itīs better to take your 10 pips than lose them. There is always time to try again. I will never tire of repeating how important S/R levels are. Especially if the pair has not tested the top as was the case with EurAud. It almost needed to double top and then I got on the short again. So 10 extra pips for the move.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #923
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:36pm Feb 23, 2012 2:36pm
Quoting rivtrader
Hi Al, I'm talking about people that visit threads and say a strategy will not work but they don't even trade it.
The truth is that there are no profitable "systems" that would be profitable in a long term . Why ? Because system don't have brains and can't adapt in changing markets . By this I mean that it's impossible to ignore news / demand / supply levels and the overall situation what is happeing in particular countrys that can affect the pair . There are no magic systems / indicators that you can follow ,example - (long/short when you see "red dot there , green circle here" , something crossing and all that stuff that most of the lossing traders use...). That is the sad truth folks you will find out sooner or later . I'm not saying there is impossible to make money trading forex , but what you have to do is start relying on yourself not systems / indicators , and have a wider view . Don't look at charts staring and waiting when indicator will cross or magic signal will pop up and then you make a trade ... I'm not implying this on this system only , i'm impying on all systems that are based only on indicators . Indicators can help a bit when using correctly , but they can't show you when to take a trade ...Sorry for my bad english and sorry if I ofended someone i didn't mean it .
  • #924
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:40pm Feb 23, 2012 2:40pm
Rethinking eur/usd trade ight take it offa t few pip profit. Btw why did u risk euaud and not eu/usd?
  • #925
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:40pm Feb 23, 2012 2:40pm
Quoting rivtrader
Al,

Many times when these pairs come in strong over the TMA they will try to make a double top or similar pattern. I thought that might be the case here so I decided to pass on the first try and go for the second.
Yes. In my experience it double tops or bottoms about 70% of the time, so I will often do what I just did. Get 10, 12 pips on the first drop and if it stalls I get out and in again at the top. At the end of the month, if you do that twice a day, thatīs an additional 400 pips in your pocket. Scraping pips is very important if you want to hit the big numbers in this business. Big trades are very occasional, but the little ones are there all the time.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #926
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:42pm Feb 23, 2012 2:42pm
Quoting grechmar
Rethinking eur/usd trade ight take it offa t few pip profit. Btw why did u risk euaud and not eu/usd?
Iīll explain. EurUsd broke out to a new high, so now it has to do the topping work all over again. EurAud dis not break out. It tested the previous top and retreated. Itīs much weaker. Thatīs a better choice. Shorting a strong breakout is dangerous for your health.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #927
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:44pm Feb 23, 2012 2:44pm
Now, EurUsd will test the center line which is close to R1. If it stalls there also, Iīll get out again and pocket another 12 pips.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #928
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:49pm Feb 23, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting Alorente
Now, EurUsd will test the center line which is close to R1. If it stalls there also, Iīll get out again and pocket another 12 pips.
Do you really talk about EUR/USD? I do not see R1 or the center line of TMA near the price at the moment...

EDIT: I guess you mean EUR/AUD, right?
  • #929
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:50pm Feb 23, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting Alorente
Now, EurUsd will test the center line which is close to R1. If it stalls there also, Iīll get out again and pocket another 12 pips.
I get your point i just took it off. Will focus on aud usd for now, tie will tell on eur/usd
  • #930
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:53pm Feb 23, 2012 2:53pm
Can you believe the move in Oil in the last 5 hours. I missed that one too. I normally donīt miss clear homerun orders like that. That long was a textbook Extreme TMA winner. Upward trending channel. Price way under the bottom band. Spike and Blue bars. It was yelling trade me, trade me !! That would have been the biggest trade of the year for me so far. Weīve got to spot those huge trades, guys...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #931
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:55pm Feb 23, 2012 2:55pm
Quoting Olarion1975
Do you really talk about EUR/USD? I do not see R1 or the center line of TMA near the price at the moment...

EDIT: I guess you mean EUR/AUD, right?
Yes. EurAud.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #932
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:58pm Feb 23, 2012 2:58pm
....is that that brokers/machines got to get daytraders back with some profits so that there is more volume...so they throw out little systems for you that work for a while...and only at extremes....

Alorente you got nothing else to do but be a babysitter for nearly 16 hours a day to traders...all out of pure charity?
  • #933
  • Feb 23, 2012 3:01pm Feb 23, 2012 3:01pm
As expected AudNzd is moving.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #934
  • Feb 23, 2012 3:03pm Feb 23, 2012 3:03pm
Quoting dakuki
....is that that brokers/machines got to get daytraders back with some profits so that there is more volume...so they throw out little systems for you that work for a while...and only at extremes....

Alorente you got nothing else to do but be a babysitter for nearly 16 hours a day to traders...all out of pure charity?
Sorry guy. I have never done this before, but I am expelling you from the thread. We are too busy here, and this is the third time you waste our time with nonsense.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #935
  • Feb 23, 2012 3:13pm Feb 23, 2012 3:13pm
Great long taking shape in UsdJpy.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #936
  • Feb 23, 2012 3:17pm Feb 23, 2012 3:17pm
Hi AL and thank you for your effort.
It works... i already had some profits when i followed the rules.
a full automatically ea would be a great help though...

thanks again
  • #937
  • Feb 23, 2012 3:19pm Feb 23, 2012 3:19pm
Out of Eur Aud at 1.2479 for +13 pips. Reason is EurUsd still very strong and price is on R1 support.
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #938
  • Feb 23, 2012 3:22pm Feb 23, 2012 3:22pm
Quoting LeanLowFx
The truth is that there are no profitable "systems" that would be profitable in a long term . Why ? Because system don't have brains and can't adapt in changing markets . ...
Although everything changes all the time in the markets, some things remain the same - such as reversion to the mean, maximum adverse excursion, etc. This is what hedge funds trade, among other things.

If you were to chart the maximum move from highs to lows every day, you'll see that price only moves within a couple of standard deviations. Keep track yourself and you'll see that it holds true.

It's very rare for price to move 4 standard deviations or 6, say, unless there is a flash crash, or a 2008 liquidity lockup, or a black swan event which only occurs very rarely.

That's why Al has a 100 pip SL for those kind of events, and probably has never had to use it.

If you really want to know how the market works, you might study the Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader (John Thomas), who founded the first global hedge fund, among other things, and has been profitable for decades, beating the likes of John Paulson and Paul Tudor Jones in 2011.

You sound like you might subscribe to the Random Walk model of the market, which, though popular with academics for decades, has been shown not to hold true - by traders who keep making money in spite of it!

This system is a simple reversion to mean system the uses the triangular moving average to find the extremes where the price is likely to reverse.

It also takes into account the trend, support and resistence levels, pivot points, and one might add average true range levels, even perhaps adding ADR dynamically bar by bar to indicate extremes.

Known patterns such as head and shoulders, and Heiken Ashi candles also give one an edge, which is all you need to win if you use money management.

It doesn't have to win every time, just more wins than loses of the same size or larger wins than losses. You just need more aggregate profit than aggregate loss.

It's a good idea to be skeptical. You need to have confidence in the system before you commit money to it and that comes from first thinking it through, doing the numbers, and gaining experience trading it. There is no short cut, unfortunately.

Buena suerte!
The mind thinks, the heart knows...
  • #939
  • Feb 23, 2012 3:23pm Feb 23, 2012 3:23pm
Quoting LeanLowFx
The truth is that there are no profitable "systems" that would be profitable in a long term . Why ? Because system don't have brains and can't adapt in changing markets . By this I mean that it's impossible to ignore news / demand / supply levels and the overall situation what is happeing in particular countrys that can affect the pair . There are no magic systems / indicators that you can follow ,example - (long/short when you see "red dot there , green circle here" , something crossing and all that stuff that most of the lossing traders use...)....

I am absolutely agreed with you LeanLowFx and I really start making some money since I do not have indicators on my charts. I feel more control on situation when I see naked candles. However, if we are not agree with indicators etc it’s better not to comment on other people system. This may hurt someone who really had work hard and has confidence on his system. Please do not take this negative as I said I do not use any indicator during my trading sessions. Keep it up.

member
  • #940
  • Feb 23, 2012 3:26pm Feb 23, 2012 3:26pm
Al, what do u think on a shot on eu/cad?
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