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  • #1,501
  • Feb 21, 2012 8:59am Feb 21, 2012 8:59am
double bottom
Price attacking the top of the 'W' Formation
Risk coming out of the market
Price above the SMA
Stocastics in favour of an upmove
MACD in favour of an upmove too

By the way this is a risk off trade. It is carry negative. Ane you are basically saying the stock market is going down if you go long this pair

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,502
  • Feb 21, 2012 11:49am Feb 21, 2012 11:49am
Find uploaded above a daily chart of the usdchf. As you know I am a dollar bull. However recent actions in the currency markets seem to say otherwise. I was in a trade in this pair which I had to close as price closed below the 100sma (my trading plan). Right now we have been going sideways for the last 3 weeks! Before we had this congestion area we were in a retracement from a very good uptrend. Stoch is pointing down which is bearish. But this baby is not bearish until we close down outside the range i.e 9080. If we get there I might put in a small buy looking for positional advantage in a long trade. However if we conclusively break down I am selling...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,503
  • Feb 21, 2012 5:40pm Feb 21, 2012 5:40pm
Find uploaded a chart of daily chart for Gold. We are on the verge of a breakout that could go 1800.

Price is above the 100sma
Shallow retracement after previous contact with resistance line
Price hitting up at horizontal resistance line
The trend on this chart is up

Funny enough Gold correlates with the stock market. If the stock market is going up Gold will go up as well. No trade until we breakout though. We might just reverse and head down. If the euro weakens then gold price weakens.

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,504
  • Feb 22, 2012 7:35am Feb 22, 2012 7:35am
It appears it is 'risk off' day today. Mind you the US markets have not opened yet. Yesterday the Dow touched 13k and retreated. Today the futures are retreating further. Is this the top we have been waiting for? Too soon to tell in my opinion.

Gold is taking a breather. Silver too. GBP is being pummelled left right and center because of the decision for more QE. The euro appears to be holding up but it is slowly slipping.

Dont even mention the AUD and the NZD. They are being sold off too.

In all of this the usdchf is quietly holding support (shown on chart). The stochastics are still bearish though but slowly negotiating a turn.

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,505
  • Feb 23, 2012 8:04am Feb 23, 2012 8:04am
Things are not looking good for the US Dollar at the moment. In the short term I see price breaking below the immediate support around 78.30 area. Eventually the rally in this index would be a beauty to behold. A real 'buy and hold' scenario. The market often makes one last hurah in the wrong direction and then go the right and intended way. Let's see whether this scenario will play out. This is just me thinking aloud...

By the way if this scenario plays it means the AUD NZD and the EUR will break to new immediate highs...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,506
  • Feb 23, 2012 10:22am Feb 23, 2012 10:22am
Comments on the chart...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,507
  • Feb 23, 2012 5:17pm Feb 23, 2012 5:17pm
Quoting Olu
I start this post with a question. How come the euro is strengthening despite the near financial collapse of some of its member states? I didn't think we will be writing or posting about a possible 123 bottom in the euro or as in my previous post a possible head and shoulder bottom in the euro. You've got to give it to the ECB for superb management of the crisis. A mixture of backdoor QE and some jawboning and voilà no collapse of the euro. Am I speaking (posting!) too soon? We'll see.

Back to trading. Uploaded is a chart of the eurcad....





....now it's all about risk management
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  • #1,508
  • Feb 23, 2012 7:16pm Feb 23, 2012 7:16pm
Quoting golferfx
....now it's all about risk management
We have a confirmed close above the resistance line as previously highlighted. Didnt take this one though as I am in the EurJpy and AudUsd. It also goes to show that simple trading techniques and strategies like support and resistance breaks are still the best.

As you said it is all about maintenence now. I have been posting my thoughts about the near term weakening of the us$ and an eventual turn up for the long term.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,509
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:06pm Feb 24, 2012 7:06pm
The euro was the main cause of the plastering of the dollar index. Find my thoughts on the daily and weekly charts uploaded...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,510
  • Feb 24, 2012 7:40pm Feb 24, 2012 7:40pm
Comments on the chart...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,511
  • Feb 26, 2012 5:57pm Feb 26, 2012 5:57pm
Interesting times we live in.

Some caution should be at hand.

What's your thought Olu.



golfer
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  • #1,512
  • Feb 26, 2012 6:27pm Feb 26, 2012 6:27pm
Quoting golferfx
Interesting times we live in.

Some caution should be at hand.

What's your thought Olu.



golfer
Thanks Golfer for the chart. I have talked (posted) about the long term outlook for the dow and Ftse100. Money is pumped in by the various governments via their central banks and this money has to go somewhere - into stocks and risk. A big fall in in the works though. Its not long now in mu humble opinion. That ending diagonal on the chart is winding tight. The dollar index has probably till 77.00 before the mother of all rallies. The euro has done well recently and probably has a bit more to go. However then the decline will begin...

It might be a good thing to leave off chasing the stocks etc and waiting for the turn... or at least be nimble in trades in the current direction. The big returns is after the turn.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,513
  • Feb 27, 2012 6:10am Feb 27, 2012 6:10am
I think a lot of the euphoria of last week will be undone this week. While we cannot rule out new highs in the currency pairs. But I think the writing is on the wall after the new high.

What business has the euro at 1.35xx? With all the debt, social unrest and indecision about monetary issues?

With crude oil at the moon what business has the eurcad where it is at?

Dont even mention the eurjpy. 108 should not be anywhere on our charts except in distant history

The euro should be on its knees. Begging and pleading for mercy from selling...

Enough of my ranting. We are traders and we go to where the money is at.

Wish you all loads of pips

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,514
  • Feb 27, 2012 7:45am Feb 27, 2012 7:45am
One of the systems I trade is flashing a sell in the eurgbp.
Price has been repelled by the 100sma
Reversal candlestick pattern
Reversing stochastic indicator

Two things though. Today's candle has not closed so anything can happen before 12midnight
secondly this pair is a slow burner. The back and fill movement of this pair can frustrate an angel. I believe if this triggers we are revisiting the lows. Check out what happened the last time we hit the 100sma on the chart...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,515
  • Feb 27, 2012 8:26pm Feb 27, 2012 8:26pm
Quoting Olu
One of the systems I trade is flashing a sell in the eurgbp.
Price has been repelled by the 100sma
Reversal candlestick pattern
Reversing stochastic indicator

Two things though. Today's candle has not closed so anything can happen before 12midnight
secondly this pair is a slow burner. The back and fill movement of this pair can frustrate an angel. I believe if this triggers we are revisiting the lows. Check out what happened the last time we hit the 100sma on the chart...

Olu
Didnt take this trade as the price closed above the 100sma by the end of the day

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,516
  • Feb 29, 2012 7:40am Feb 29, 2012 7:40am
The Euro is taking it on the chin today against all the other currencies.

I want to highlight the eurjpy (4hr chart uploaded). We have had a meteoric rise last 2 weeks and I think this might me it for some time. First I think we need to retrace some of this euphoric up-move. So I am keeping a look out for a 123 break lower. If we break the black line downwards we could travel 250 pips quite quickly. Also if this turns out to be the high for some time and the euro tanks some Japanese intervention will be needed to rescue the euro

Incidentally all the jpy pairs are vulnerable in my opinion...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,517
  • Mar 1, 2012 1:15am Mar 1, 2012 1:15am
For a valid turn the euro has to tank as it is about 50% in the index composition...

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,518
  • Mar 2, 2012 6:44am Mar 2, 2012 6:44am
he euro has been taking it on the chin over the last few days. Fundamentally this can be attributed to the financial issues facing the union and the need for continued QE. Incidentally the US poured cold water over the need for more QE in the USA. This will lead to the the US$ becoming stronger that the euro over time. There is an argument now that the eurusd may have topped.This remains to be seen. All we need to do is to follow our trading plan.

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,519
  • Mar 2, 2012 10:34am Mar 2, 2012 10:34am
It appears we have put in a top in the pairs against the us$ ofr the time being. I am not saying this is it forever but the us$ has been beaten up so much that a solid reprieve is called for. For example I am expecting the aussie to fall below 1.0600 without taking out 1.0800. If price does not bounce off the 100sma and falls well below the uptrend support line it is a go to short this pair. so the risk is small here. And the reward large. Do your own analysis the above is just the way I see it

Olu
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If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #1,520
  • Mar 3, 2012 6:21pm Mar 3, 2012 6:21pm
Hey Olu & 9/5'rs.

A+ set up on silver here imho.

Risk is $3.00 +

Reward...could be huge.

I am short SLV puts for disclosure.

Just thinkin out loud.




golfer
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