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Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

  • #4,441
  • Feb 22, 2012 10:57am Feb 22, 2012 10:57am
nice chart. I'm selling now. and please moderators allow me to post replys.. when do this thing stop, the moderators thing ?
  • #4,442
  • Feb 23, 2012 1:10am Feb 23, 2012 1:10am
Quoting porquilhoo
nice chart. I'm selling now. and please moderators allow me to post replys.. when do this thing stop, the moderators thing ?
Selling at the VAH is a good idea in balancing market.
But one thing for certain, the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Please be careful for short trade.
  • #4,443
  • Edited 1:33am Feb 23, 2012 1:11am | Edited 1:33am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting Evak
Generally we still have poor highs on a day time frame perspective,Widest RE yesterday(bracketing day) base on 1st 4hr IBR since TK open, & failure to auction above monday high & now we are trading back to mondays IBR.

SO best to look for short & ride the LLB towards the next prominent control at the very least & not forgeting the monday gaptoo, & prepare to get on with a reverse there after...

I am sitting on a counter trend move just for a short trip towards current DVAH, odds favor a downward continuation from then on with perhaps a UK...
it seems the chances are high for this to happen now...
all this week we had just the day trader and just occasionally the short term active. so for now i don't think the longer time frame just started from nowhere to find the price attractive, looks more like the market is trying to facilitate the trade and get the price fair to sellers for now. what do you think?
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  • #4,444
  • Edited 3:07am Feb 23, 2012 2:47am | Edited 3:07am
Quoting s7c
it seems the chances are high for this to happen now...
all this week we had just the day trader and just occasionally the short term active. so for now i don't think the longer time frame just started from nowhere to find the price attractive, looks more like the market is trying to facilitate the trade and get the price fair to sellers for now. what do you think?
I got a feeling it might push through the highs as it seems the pick up from the current week Mode is actually done this morning TK session.....

edit:1-3 merge showing price test onto VAH in most part & todays TK pickup from ard the Mode of current week Balance.
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  • #4,445
  • Edited 3:09am Feb 23, 2012 2:58am | Edited 3:09am
In most part of yesterday we have pretty much fail RE downwards in yesterday's TK + UK & todays TK session too. US session see a test of UK low, I made my entry during the B period retraction, with exposure reduce at 3250 with remaining still on hold. This morning TK fail RE was indicative too of a potential intiatives when UK opens; to a eventual 3-I, perhaps.

Signs of strengths in most part of yesterday's sidewayz:
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  • #4,446
  • Feb 23, 2012 9:57am Feb 23, 2012 9:57am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
yes, i can understand somehow this move from a VSA point of view. but i try to use that just as confirmation and from AMT we barely got the short term presence this days in intermediate/long term references points and at the point of the brake we were above balance i n every situation.
not sure what's going on, but the pit session opened out of balance like london did and continued again with a test drive open type. thhis time we didn't test just previous session, we tested the brake too. so i got long but for now my target is limited to a short term activity.
evak, from your point of view the london inventory was balanced right? that inv would have been long from JD point, i think...hmmm
mzvega, what's your view?
  • #4,447
  • Feb 23, 2012 10:28am Feb 23, 2012 10:28am
Quoting s7c
evak, from your point of view the london inventory was balanced right? that inv would have been long from JD point, i think...hmmm
mzvega, what's your view?
Yes, we have a good high too, as of now US open with a responsive off UK VAL, then we have either a Inside day scenario with balance continuation before retesting the highs...

Just a update on the above Chart, now showing US pit bounce off current week DVAH & retesting the Feb 9th high again....
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  • #4,448
  • Feb 23, 2012 10:35am Feb 23, 2012 10:35am
e period
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  • #4,449
  • Feb 23, 2012 11:04am Feb 23, 2012 11:04am
Quoting s7c
yes, i can understand somehow this move from a VSA point of view. but i try to use that just as confirmation and from AMT we barely got the short term presence this days in intermediate/long term references points and at the point of the brake we were above balance i n every situation.
not sure what's going on, but the pit session opened out of balance like london did and continued again with a test drive open type. thhis time we didn't test just previous session, we tested the brake too. so i got long but for now my target is limited to a short...
I cant comment on the sessions, as I use different settings, therefore i.e. my us open didnt open out of balance, far too subjective, not that it matters as I dont take my trades off the opens, I try to swing from one side of a longerternm balance to another. I still have that bearish bias. From my perspective we are over valued in most cases. we did have slight re on the weekly, but from my experience if price fails to exceed 1.5 (blue line on weekly 1h chart) its IB it often trys to re 1.5 to the other side of IB developing to a netral profile. on the weekly also we have failed to exceed the week before last, and if I compare va's, I dont think this weeks value is building higher as we are still confined within week before lasts va. Im looking to build short positions
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Markets are not efficient, rather they are effective - Jones
  • #4,450
  • Edited 10:36pm Feb 23, 2012 11:09am | Edited 10:36pm
EU did good on breakingout from an inside day kinda profile from Yday.
On Monthly, EU presently facing resistance from HUA of last month profile, what will be the next short term direction for EU, I was having a doubt about an Anomaly (Can we call this anomaly?) on daily.. if its correct, will it revisit this area is my concern.
Edit: I forgot to mention on Monthly its a 1-2 merge..
Regards.
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If it was easy, everyone would do it.
  • #4,451
  • Feb 23, 2012 11:19am Feb 23, 2012 11:19am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
Quoting mzvega
I cant comment on the sessions, as I use different settings, therefore i.e. my us open didnt open out of balance, far too subjective, not that it matters as I dont take my trades off the opens, I try to swing from one side of a longerternm balance to another. I still have that bearish bias. From my perspective we are over valued in most cases. we did have slight re on the weekly, but from my experience if price fails to exceed 1.5 (blue line on weekly 1h chart) its IB it often trys to re 1.5 to the other side of IB developing to a netral profile....
what i meant to say instead of 'we were above balance" in previous statement, was we were above value. that's why i was curious to see your position...
thank's
  • #4,452
  • Edited 2:06pm Feb 23, 2012 1:53pm | Edited 2:06pm
Just some Long Term thoughts....
Here is a merge of last 3 Years + last 2 Months @ today...

Who drives the Market? OTF's Players...
Who are OTF's Players? Medium/Long term Investors....
Where OTF's Players Buy? Below Value....
Where OTF's Wanna go after they buy...? The answer is in the chart.....
Where will EU go? Idem.....

A little note about last Monday GAP: Was it an exhaustion gap...? It doesn't seems to me....
The other 2 kind of gaps are: Break-away & Acceleration.....
Not to mention the 3 TPO BT of this month profile (until today)...

But It's just IMHO.....
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  • #4,453
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:24pm Feb 23, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting Aztrader2
In my analysis I agree with you regarding the support zone around 1.3200/1.3225 ...... But actually it seems more probable 1.3375 (last 4 months merge's POC) , if price is accepted above the resistance estabilished around 1.3250/75(last 4 weeks merge).......
Damn...actually I'm 3 pips far away....

Not bad for a newbie IDIOT italian guy who wanna be "spoon feeded by others", or "lookin' for a "signal service".... or who "has to be someone's other side".....



I don't quote myself to be vain... It's just to make someone understand that I joined this thread to learn in the right way....
  • #4,454
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:54pm Feb 23, 2012 2:54pm
seems patience was the key this week (well always actually).

I have 2 longs, one opened yesterday during NY, the other this morning NY in A period shakeout at weekly VAH. I still think its going to at least 1.3500 - 1.3530. 1.3430 should see a bounce, possibly its the high of this range breakout?

first chart is weekly profiles, second is monthly.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,455
  • Feb 23, 2012 2:58pm Feb 23, 2012 2:58pm
similarly, here's my ES long as well. I'm expecting a break of last year's high now that price has bounced of the VAH shown in 2nd chart. Today's bounce of currently week VAH and previous quarterly VAH.
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Change is the only constant
  • #4,456
  • Feb 23, 2012 10:16pm Feb 23, 2012 10:16pm
month.
upper developing area <50%.
more room upside / rejection.
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  • #4,457
  • Feb 23, 2012 11:20pm Feb 23, 2012 11:20pm
what is the best company that offers REAL market profile data for FOREX???
  • #4,458
  • Feb 24, 2012 12:14am Feb 24, 2012 12:14am
Quoting lalilo
what is the best company that offers REAL market profile data for FOREX???
Look @ the post above yours....

The "Real" data for Market profile are those of FX Futures... And Data/Charting systems are all a bit expensive (i.e. Market Delta fee is about 180$ per month) + commissions for each trade as usual for futures....
  • #4,459
  • Feb 24, 2012 12:29am Feb 24, 2012 12:29am
  •  s7c
  • | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: try and fail but don't fail to try | 289 Posts
k, it extended above 1.5 WIB and we breached all other reference points stated before. that implies multiple time frames acting at unison, the day ended with new buyer demand so at this point the changes to continue up are high.
i closed my long and look to get another one after we balance/test the OTF conviction. let see what london brings on the table...
  • #4,460
  • Feb 24, 2012 12:45am Feb 24, 2012 12:45am
Quoting Aztrader2
Look @ the post above yours....

The "Real" data for Market profile are those of FX Futures... And Data/Charting systems are all a bit expensive (i.e. Market Delta fee is about 180$ per month) + commissions for each trade as usual for futures....
tks god then that I'm using the "fake one"; aka mt4 :S
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